Sunday, 5 April 2015

Election Forecast

[Naturally, all of the below is wildly and idiotically out of date now. A good example of what do I know?]

There are thirty-two days until the next UK General Election. An event which brings up the psephologist in all of us. And by all of us, I of course mean me.

Now, you might see many predictions on how the election will turn out, throughout the press, based on a thing called Uniform National Swing. Or, as David Butler used to sum it up for the BBC: "If the rest of the country went as (Place), then the results would be..."

And UNS suggests, or gives voice, to the idea that David Cameron will be back in Number Ten throughout the rest of the year.

But is it that simple?