Sunday, 5 April 2015

Election Forecast

[Naturally, all of the below is wildly and idiotically out of date now. A good example of what do I know?]


There are thirty-two days until the next UK General Election. An event which brings up the psephologist in all of us. And by all of us, I of course mean me.

Now, you might see many predictions on how the election will turn out, throughout the press, based on a thing called Uniform National Swing. Or, as David Butler used to sum it up for the BBC: "If the rest of the country went as (Place), then the results would be..."

And UNS suggests, or gives voice, to the idea that David Cameron will be back in Number Ten throughout the rest of the year.

But is it that simple?





The trouble with UNS is that, while it points to the general picture, it can miss the minutiae. The famous example is its suggestion of a hung parliament in 1992, when John Major won a working majority. Polls have been mistrusted since. During the 2010 election, everyone (including David Dimbleby) decided that the exit poll had to be wrong - by end of proceedings, it turned out to be nearly spot on.

To test things, I wondered what the result would be, if you looked at each individual constituency (minus Northern Ireland, which has local issues an outsider like myself wouldn't even begin to be able to guess around). Take them all one at a time, look at their local issues and candidates and polling/swings if available. Then to add that up to see how it comes out. The new YouGov Nowcast works on roughly the same idea.

I was going to publish the results nearer the election - however, I notice that as the campaign rolls to the end, more and more, things I uncovered as possibles 2 months ago are starting to form as potentials. So yes, there is the writer's ego involved.

Though mostly, I was inspired by Iain Dale. His predictions for Glasgow South, for example was "Safe seat". This inspried me to try and do better than he did. So naturally... there's several seats I've gone with the flow due to lack of information. So it goes.

I'm a natural conservative in these matters - prediction that is, not social equality, hah - so, when there isn't enough information, I've gone with the incumbent. This puts a substantial margin of error in, as if there is a UNS (which I've avoided, much as possible) then this prediction is heavily slanted in favour of the Tories. (And if they have swing back in the next few weeks, to the Labour party)

And in Scotland, its a bloody lottery.

Anyhow, here are the suggested results so far...


First up, the Liberal Democrat seats. On UNS, they'd be wiped out. But a lot of their gains over the years have been built on incumbency and local campaigning. So let's look at each of them one by one.




(Key: Seat, MP, (retiring if known), WINNER in caps at end)




LIB DEMS



1 Argyll and Bute – Alan Reid, 4 way marginal, 3431 majority, 2010 poll went down, 3% swing needed. Posible three way marginal. SNP.

2. Bath – Don Foster – mass swing to Lib Dems in 2010, as result needs 12% swing. Very safe, BUT a university seat. 23 year Incumbent to stand down. Labour candidate a teenager. Tories desperate to win this seat back, after Patten’s 1992 upset. Lib Dems looking secure for now though. LIB

3. Bermondsey and Southwark – Simon Hughes. April Ashley (THE?) is running as TUSC candidate. 10% swing needed. Polling suggests 9% swing, with Hughes hanging on by his fingernails. LIB DEM

4. Berwick Upon Tweed – Alan Beith (retiring). Con/Lib marginal. SNP were considering running but Executive barred candidate. 9% swing away from Libs in 2010. Needs 3.5% swing for Tories to take. Tory candidate same local one that eat into Beiths majority in 2010. Polling had the Tories ahead last August. TORY

5. Berwickshire – Michael Moore. Needs a 6% swing. Lib Dem vote in the seat in 2011 Holyrood election crashed by 16%. John Lamont running for the Tories. Suggestions of a three marginal between Lib Dems, Tory and SNP. SNP.

6. Birmingham Yardley – John Hemming. 3 way marginal. 3.6% swing needed. Former bellweather seat. Lib Dem vote holding up here so far, and John Hemming v. Popular locally. Locals assure me it’d highly unlikely of changing, even if there is massive swing against the party nationwide. LIB DEM

7. Bradford East – David Ward. Three way marginal, majority 365. Needs 0.4% of a swing. Unpopular local MP. Doomed. LABOUR

8. Brecon and Radnorshire – Roger Williams. Tory/Lib marginal. Maj 3747, 4.8% swing needed. Williams ahead in Ashcroft polls due to strong incumbency factor, against Welsh trends.LIB DEM

9. Brent Central – Sarah Teather (retiring). Lab/Lib marginal, 1.5% swing (700 votes) needed to turn it, Dawn Butler (MP 2005-10) running again for Labour. LABOUR

10. Bristol West – Stephen Williams. Usually safe seat, 10% swing required on majority of 11k. However...large poor community AND high level of students. IN, but only just, due to Green/Labour splitting the main opposition. LIB DEM

11. Burnley – Gordon Birtwistle. Lib/Lab marginal. C2% swing (900 votes) needed. Area hit badly by the cuts. Local teacher running who cut Lib majority down 11% in 2010. Polling has Lib Dems slipping into 3rd behind UKIP and Labour 13 ahead of the Kippers. LABOUR

12. Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross – John Thurso. Safe Lib Dem seat. 8.4% swing and 2400 votes needed. On National Swing, SNP gain, but on incumbency vote, the Lord may hold. LIB (for now)

13. Cambridge – Julian Huppert. 3 way marginal, though 7.7% swing needed. 1/5th of the voters are students, engineering city. Half of voters graduates. Express journo Patrick O’Flynn is running for UKIP! Green candidate had local controversy which may hurt his polling. Huppert locally liked. Solid incumbent vs rising Labour vote. A right pick’em 50/50er. Ashcroft polled in November and found Labour winning by 1%. The Oakshott/ICM poll last April had a 13 point lead for Labour though. Like I say, its a tough one for Huppert. Both campaigns confident – a a right 50/50! In April 2015, polling suggested a strong swing to Huppert from the UKIp to give him a 9 point lead. Vagary of a story in the polls in this place over time! LIB DEM, just.

14. Cardiff Central – Jenny Willott. 3 way marginal. 6.3% swing needed, Ashcroft polling has Labour ahead by 12!! Being the largest student seat in the country might have something to do with that. Potential Government Minister backlash. Lib Dems lost a vast majority (10k plus) in the WA elections here. Lib Dems targeting seat like mad. A good indicator of how badly the core student vote has left Lib Dems or not. LABOUR

15. Carshalton and Wallington – Tom Brake. Lib/Tory marginal. Suburbia. 5.7% swing and 2600 votes needed. Should be a Lib Dem hold, Tory vote being wiped out by UKIP, giving Lib Dem enough breathing space, which added with strong local incumbency. LIB DEM

16. Ceredigion – Mark Williams. Safe Lib seat, 11% swing needed for Plaid. Two universities in the seat. Squeezed the Lab and Plaid votes considerably in 2010, Lib maj was 291 in 2005. Labour candidate – Huw Thomas, a Cardiff councillor – considered a strong challenge. UKIP vote. Historically a very difficult seat to predict. Given the high number of students/public sector jobs, and local anecdotes, I’m going for the bravest of political predictions – a Plaid gain. OUT.

17. Cheadle – Mark Hunter. Lib/Tory marginal. 3.1% swing required. Government Whip. Wards holding solidly Lib Dem in council elections. In fact, Ashcroft polls suggest a swing TO the Lib Dems from the Tories. LIB DEM

18. Cheltenham – Martin Horwood. Lib/Tory marginal, 5% swing needed. Popular local MP and vote held up in locals. LIB DEM

19. Chippenham – Duncan Hames. 2.3% swing needed in this Lib/Tory marginal. Ashcroft polling has 10% lead for Tories. A seat in which UKIP are gaining votes off Lib Dems. Fatal in so small a majority. TORY

20. Colchester – Bob Russell. Safe Lib Dem, needs 7.6% swing and 3500 votes. Russell will be glad the University of Essex is in the neighbouring constituency! Nethertheless, lib dem vote holding up here, very popular local MP (takes the left-wing vote). One of their most sure. LIB DEM.

21. East Dumbartonshire – Jo Swinson. 2.3% swing required. Lab/Lib marginal. A curio. Would be interesting to see polling here prior to May – SNP only had 11% of the vote in 2010. Labour candidate looks not that great, but then, people in the Central Belt voted in Ian Davidson so what do I know? Now it seems Labour have given up on the seat, sharing resources with Cumbernauld, so if the ant-Lib Dem surge carries through the Central Belt, this is an SNP gain. SNP

22. Eastbourne – Stephen Lloyd. 3.3% swing required, polling suggests a swing TO the Lib Dems. LIB DEM

23. Eastleigh – Mike Thornton. Lib/Tory marginal, 4% swing needed. UKIp/Tory split vote. Suspect Lib Dem will sneak through. LIB DEM.

24. Edinburgh West – Michael Crockart, 4 way marginal, 4.1% swing needed. Edinburgh Zoo, but I don’t expect the pandas to vote (they’re conservatives, I hear. No, sorry, conservationists. Hehehe). I expect tactical voting against perceived SNP surge here. LABOUR

25. Gordon – Malcolm Bruce (retiring). 7% swing needed. A chap by name of Alex Salmond is running, and Ashcroft has him leading by nearly 20 points. SNP

26. Hazel Grove – Andrew Stunell (retiring). Tories need 8% swing. Large Tory campaign on the go. Held on in the locals though. LIB DEM

27. Hornsey and Wood Green – Lynne Featherstone. One of the Lib Dems most vociferous local campaigners. On the incumbency vote, one of the safer seats. 6.2% swing required by Labour. Ashcroft has Labour ahead by 13, which is the kind of result that would suggest party wipeout. What makes this more incredible is that Lib Dem incumbency in London is proving stronger than elsewhere. Seems doomed then. LABOUR

28. Inverness, Nairn etc – Danny Alexander. 9% swing needed, 8765 majority. What do the Dodo, the Great Aulk and Danny Alexander’s hopes of holding on have in common? Local party attempts to deselect him in favour of Charlie Kennedy as early as 2010. Alexander wont be hurting, he’s probably made the contacts to get a very cushy salary and job in the City. The SNP lead over him in the latest poll btw? 29 points. SNP cert.

29. Kingston and Surbiton – Ed Davey. 6.6% swing required. Government Minister, but does that matter in a Coalition marginal? Too close to call in some counts, but should hold on. LIB DEM

30. Leeds North West – Greg Mullhulloand. Safe seat. 10% swing required. Leeds Met University, and a high level of student residential areas. Ouch. ¼ of voters are students. Ouch. Lib Dems won the seat in first place as student protest over Iraq in 2005. Iain Dale calls this a dead cert Lib hold. But even so, large enough incumbency vote to hold on even if student vote vanishes. LIB DEM.

31. Lewes – Norman Baker. Tories need 7.6% swing. Local MP known for campaigning for truth into David Kelly’s suicide. High popular Lib Dem. LIB DEM

32. Manchester Withington – John Leech. Lib/Lab marginal, 2.1% swing required, large student population. Losing heavily here in the council elections (wiped out in 2011 and 12). Polling has the Lib Dems 34 points behind Labour! LABOUR.

33. Mid Dorset and North Poole – Annette Brooke (retiring). Majority 269, 0.3% swing, Lib/Con marginal. Mass swing to the Tories in 2010 but Brooke just held on. TORY

34. North Cornwall – Dan Rogerson. Tories need 3% swing. Ashcroft has this in recount territory. Local reports of UKIP substantially gaining voters off Lib Dems. Tactical UKIP voters could hold the balance, one way or another. Polling in April 2015 suggests this is exactly the case, as the UKIP poll gets squeeze by the 2 bigger parties. LIB DEM

35. North Devon – Nick Harvey. 5.6% swing needed to the Tories. UKIP really think they can win this seat, polling well (but behind) and have Steve Crowther running. Ashcroft has the Lib Dems behind to Tories, with UKIP gaining ground. Polling in April 2015 had a big swing from UKIP to the Tories, which would spell doom for Harvey. OUT.

36. North East Fife – Ming Campbell (retiring). Safe Lib Dem, 11% swing needed. St Andrews Uni is in here (but thats, stereotyping, a fairly right wing outlook). Almost solidly Liberal, bar 1961-87. North East Fife (Holyrood version) was nabbed by SNP in 2011. Campbell had a massive personal vote, which is disappearing. For what its worth, Charlie Kennedy thinks this seat is lost. With that in mind, SNP

37. North Norfolk – Norman Lamb. Very safe, requires 11.7% swing, 11k majority. Massive incumbency vote here, if Lamb goes, they nearly all go. LIB DEM

38. Norwich South – Simon Wright. 4 way marginal (being kind to the Greens). University seat that went to the Lib Dems last time out due to the incumbent being Charles sodding Clarke. Currently needs a .3% swing (about 150 votes). LABOUR

39. Orkney and Shetland – Alistair Carmichael. 25.6%. The swing needed to oust Carmichael. Jo Grimond’s old seat, Liberal since 1950, and one of the safest seats (counting all parties) in the country. We don’t even need polling here, if Carmichael loses, the Lib Dems are getting wiped out. LIB DEM

40. Portsmouth South – Mike Hancock (retiring). 6.3% swing to Tories required. Now, I originally had this as a strong incumbent hold. Then came the sex scandals, the corruption scandals, the popularity levels dipping below Hitlers and losing the Lib Dem Whip. The least controversial thing he did this parliament was have an affair with an alleged Russian spy! Local party solidly behind Gerald Vernon-Jackson, Portsmouth council leader, however, and Tory vote allegedly in disarray. Though they lead in the polls, barely. Hancock is running as an Independent, the Tories got into bother over something about UKIP, and everyone is very confident. Except perhaps Hancock who may lose his deposit, but will get the losing MP bonus for standing. A potential four way. TORY

41. Redcar – Ian Swales (retiring). 6.2% swing needed for Labour. Teesport here. Polling has Labour 21 points ahead, and UKIP ahead of Lib Dems. LABOUR

42. Ross Skye Lochaber – Charles Kennedy. The conscience of the Lib Dems. One of the few Lib MPs to retain popularity despite the Coalition (probably helped by his depression battle brought on by the Coalition forming, and reappearances from ill health bouts to vote against cuts, etc) – his popularity in Scotland and his constituency (and, as we saw, neighbouring ones) is even higher. This is Kennedy’s seat until he gives it up or drops. Which is what I said before I heard rumblings on the ground, and noted the polling which puts it in margin of error territory. Kennedy is polling 30 points ahead of his party, that that might not be enough is staggering. LIB DEM (for now)

43. Sheffield Hallam – Nick Clegg. Highly popular (heh) Deputy PM who got in on a student vote which has evaporated, has experienced years of polls all suggesting him miles behind Labour. Reports local students are organising door to door campaigning against Clegg, and that Labour have heavy campaigning on the ground already. Further polling in April 2015 showed Clegg 2 points behind – margin of error territory – to Oliver Coppard on the crucial “thinking of this constituency” question which tends to swing back to the Liberals. LABOUR

44. Solihull – Lorely Burt, 0.15% swing required to the Tories. TORY

45. Somerton and Frome – David Heath (retiring). 10% swing to the Tories in current polling. TORY

46. Southport – John Pugh. 7% swing required for Tories. High UKIP vote should help Pugh. LIB DEM

47. St Austell – Stephen Gilbert. 1.4% swing to Tories required. Ashcroft has Tories ahead by 2, so, so close only an idiot would call it in September 2014. In April 2015, however, more polling had another one of the swings from UKIP to the Tories. Given it was a three way fight before, thats a squeeze rather than tactical, I’d guess. TORY

48. St Ives – Andrew George. 1.8% swing required, Tories. Polling all within margin of error, and you wondered why George is making capital of his bedroom tax amendment last year. He’ll be calling on all his local left wing and Cornish nationalist reputation. Houdini act against National Swing, I’m thinking. Aided by the fact in subsequent polls, George appears to be nabbing more fading UKIP voters than the Tories are. LIB DEM

49. Sutton and Cheam – Paul Burstow. 1.6% swing in the Lib/Tory marginal. Ashcroft has found a swing TO the Libs in this seat though, which goes with the polling in most of London – Hornsey excepted. LIB DEM

50. Taunton Deane – Jeremy Browne (retiring). Needs a 3.5% swing and Ashcroft has the Tories taking it. Tories tipped to win. TORY

51. Thornbury and Yate – Steve Webb. Tories need 7.4% swing. LIB DEM

52. Torbay – Adrian Sanders. 4% swing needed and polls have it in recount territory. Knife edge. TORY

53. Twickenham – Vince Cable. 10% swing needed, but Tories going all out to unseat Cable, and Cable is reportedly nervous about his chances. And in polls last year, Cable was losing. Ouch. A blow to the leftover party in June. However, suggestions Cable is bouncing back since campaigning started. Going with the incumbent, for now. LIB DEM

54. Wells – Tessa Munt. 0.7% swing. Tories polling well. TORY

55. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – Robert Smith. Marginal. In an area with high SNP support. Indeed, Lib Dem voters appear to have gone directly to the SNP in polls. SNP

56. Westmorland and Lonsdale – Tim Farron. 12% swing. One of the Liberal certs. Next leader? LIB DEM

57. Yeovil – David Laws – Torys haemoraging voters en masse to UKIP, as are the Liberals. One of the Liberals safest seats. This could be a seat UKIP could break into, this is a three way marginal according to feet on the ground. So the writer of the Orange Book might be the lesser of two evils. Typical. Gut feeling is he might well hold on. LIB DEM


Now this is best case scenario for the Lib Dems. A bunch of seats I have them retaining, are "too close to call". On a bad night they might lose them. And of course, they might gain some other seats. Watford, Maidstone and Montgomeryshire stick out as possibles. I'd gather the Lib Dems would be desperate for any one gain on the night to show they are not John Cleese's parrot.





WELSH SEATS




1. Aberavon – Hywel Francis (Lab).(retiring) Safe Lab seat, 17.8% swing required. Retiring MP with interest in disabilities, replacement (Stephen Kinnock) is husband of Danish PM and an outsider. That 52% of the vote in 2010 *was* a slashed majority. Backlash against Labour candidate possible, but too much of a headway to lose here. LABOUR.

2. Aberconwy – Guto Bebb (Con). Would require a 5.6% swing. Was Labour seat until Bangor removed from it. Become locally unpopular in the last year. That, coupled with the collapsing Lib Dem vote, could be good news for Labour. However, UKIP are edging off both parties in this area, so between that and the Incumbency Effect (which was looking to a hold for years), Bebb might hold on. CON.

3. Alyn and Deeside – Mark Tami (lab). 3.6% swing. Heavily working class area.UKIP doing well in the area. Labour have never lost this seat, though. I don’t expect them to start. LABOUR.

4. Arfon – Hywel Williams (PC). Long standing Plaid seat, though the adding on of Bangor to the constituency turns it into a Plaid/Lab marginal. 2.8% swing required. Alun Pugh, Labour candidate, is same chap who significantly bit into the Plaid majority in 2010. There was 3500 Lib Dem voters in the constituency, its a uni constituency, and how their disenfranchised fall may decide the seat. Plaid have strong local support. PLAID.

5. Blaenau Gwent – Nick Smith (Lab). Would require a 16.3% swing. The seat of Michael Foot, Nye Bevan and Peter Law’s independent win in 2005. Little information about just now. LAB

6. Bridgend – Madeleine Moon (Lab). Lab/Tory marginal, 2.9% swing required. 22% of tbe vote in 2010 went to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

7. Caerphilly – Wayne David (Lab). This seat has been non-Labour for two years since 1918, and that was when Ednyfed Hudson Davies defected to the SDP (and who has heard of him since?). LABOUR

8. Cardiff North – Jonathan Evans(Con) (retiring). Ashcroft polling has Labour 11 ahead. They only need a swing of 0.2$ (87 votes) to win back a seat the Tories won in 2010. Labour should be winning this seat back. LABOUR.

9. Cardiff South and Penarth – Stephen Doughty (Lab). Callaghan’s old seat needs a 5.3% swing. Nearly ten thousand Lib Dem votes in 2010. LABOUR

10. Cardiff West – Kevin Brennan (Lab). 5.8% swing required to the Tories. 7000 Lib Dem voters in 2010. Swings of 10% in places in council elections to Plaid, but that still wouldn’t be enough to unseat Brennan. LABOUR

11. Carmarthen East and Dinefr – Jonathan Edwards (PC). 4.6% swing to Labour required, though if this is considered a marginal due to Labour, it ought to be to the Tories too, who need a 6% swing. The Tories really got their vote up by 3000 and 8% in 2010 though, which *might* be their glass ceiling just now. Though the bad news for Labour is, the Tories and Lib Dems got their increased numbers in 2010 by squeezing the Plaid vote, the Labour vote itself lost a mere 800 or so votes. So, even if the Lib Dem votes go to the Labour in this scenario, you’d expect more returnees to come back to Plaid. PLAID

12. Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South – Simon hart (Con). Ashcroft polling has it narrowing to 33/29 Tory/Lab. Labour need 4.2% swing. The Lib Dem candidate wont win, but has the fantastic name of Selwyn Runnett. Continually slow drip of percentage vote to Tories since 1997, but the Labour vote has gone down in the last 4 elections. Either that reverts, or Hart holds on. UKIP surge in seat. A ‘call em’ as Alan Kalder would say. CON.

13. Clwyd South – Susan Jones (Lab). 4.1% swing to Tories needed, with 6000 Lib Dem voters. More information required. LABOUR.

14. Clwyd West – David Jones (Con). 8.4% swing required to Labour. CON.

15. Cynon Valley – Ann Clwyd (Lab) 16.1% swing required to Plaid. Ann Clwyd was retiring – she is 78 – but was reselected for the seat after requests from her own constituents. She’s not losing this seat. LABOUR.

16. Delyn – David Hanson (Lab). 3% swing to Tories required, however, the opposite of Aberconwy, in that the changing of the boundaries have cut off a good chunk of the Tory support. And if UKIP are doing ok here, that cuts off more Tory support. LABOUR.

17. Dwyfor M. – Elfyn Llwyd (PC) (retiring). Needs an 11% swing to the Tories. 41 years of being in Plaid hands. Hey, they don’t win many, but when they do, they win big seemingly! Plaid should hold. PLAID.

18. Gower – Martin Caton (Lab). 3.2$ swing to Tories needed. Gower has been held by the Labour party since 1910, not even the Tory surges of the 30s, 50s and 80s could shift the seat. LABOUR

19. Islwyn – Chris Evans (Lab). Neil Kinnock’s old seat. Held by Labour since 1918, needs a 17.6% swing to Tories. The majority was slashed 16% in 2010, so I guess if that happened again – against all trends of polling and history – Labor might have to contend with merely a 9000 majority victory. LABOUR.

20. Llanelli – Nia Griffith (Lab). 6.2% required to Plaid. Lib Dems could lose their deposit. Plaid chances – with inroads and Lab/UKIP woes –likely to be torpedoed by Sian Caiach running as an independent and splitting their vote. LABOUR.

21. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney – Dai Havard (Lab). Retiring MP, requires 6.3% swing...to the Lib Dems. Safe as houses. LABOUR.

22. Monmouth – David Davies (Con). 11.2% swing required, very safe Tory seat. UKIP Presence though. TORY.

23. Montgomeryshire – Glyn Davies (Con). Lembit Opik’s old seat. Usually solidly Lib Dem – though the Lib Dem backlash is a thing to watch out for. Since Opiki went, the swing has been solidly against the Lib Dems, so they have put vast resources into taking this seat in 2015. TORY.

24. Neath – Peter Hain (retiring) Lab. Very safe Labour seat. LAB

25. Newport East – Jessica Morden (Lab). 2.4% swing required to Lib Dems. Though that was due to Labour losing votes to the Lib Dems in 2010. The Tories could win it if they hover up enough of the Lib Dem vote, but you’d expect Labour to hold on. LABOUR.

26. Newport West – Paul Flynn (Lab)/ Requires 4.4% swing. Doubtful. LABOUR

27. Ogmore – Huw Irranca-Davies – (lab). Requires a 19.1% swing. LABOUR.

28. Pontypridd – Owen Smith (Lab). Shadow Welsh minister. Held by Labour since 1920s, but 3.8% swing required and Lib Dem support here. That was down to the universities, however. If the trend in that vote goes as here, this seat could return to the 2001 days of needing a 23% swing to overturn yet again. LABOUR.

29. Preseli Prembrokeshire – Stephen Crabb (Con). 5.8% swing required. Crabb may have a personal vote. Held in WA in 2011. Swings to Tories in recent elections. TORY

30. Rhondda – Chris Bryant (Lab). 18.6% swing required to Plaid. Plaid aren’t doing that well. Bryant is a popular name. LABOUR

31. Swansea East – Sian James (Lab) (retiring). Requires 16.6% swing to Lib Dems. LABOUR

32. Swansea West – Geraint Davies (Lab)Requires a 0.7% swing to Lib Dems. If Lib Dem vote collapses en masse to the Tories, it could be troublesome. Local reports are that that Lib Dem vote was mostly disgruntled ex-Lab than Tory leaning though, so that is unlikely. LABOUR.

33. Torfaen – Paul Murphy (Lab). 12.4% swing required in Leo Abse’s old neck of the woods. Support is drifting from Labour at a very, very slow pace, to the point that the 2090 election here could be a nailbitter. I’ll look forward to that when I’m 104 then, hah! LABOUR

34. Vale of Clwyd – Chris Ruane (Lab). 3.5% swing to Tories needed. The Tories massively increased their vote here on a bigger turn out, but so did Ruane, though his percentage share went down. LABOUR

35. Vale of Glamorgan – Alun Cairns (Con). 4.4% swing to the Labour. Could be a pick em, both sides campaigning hard to get the vote out. UKIP rumblings. Could be a Labour gain, needs more information though. And polling suggests Tory voting holding up. TORY.

36. Wrexham – Ian Lucas – (Lab). 5.5% swing to Tories needed. Mass Lib Dem vote. LABOUR.

37. Ynys Mon – Albert Owen (lab). Needs 3.5% swing to Plaid. Plaid did well in the WA election. Not sure the trends are going towards Plaid though. LABOUR.





SCOTTISH SEATS



This is where I am least happy with the outcome. All the polling suggests an SNP surge. 40+ seats, a political earthquake. Now, the margins involved are very slim. I've also made note in the past that the SNP are very good at leaving the goal open while going ahead for a goal, so to speak. Being on the safe side, I've gone done the middle, which would have SNP/Lab at roughly the same amount of seats. It could easily go either way ahead of that. We're in entirely uncharted territory. And the author admits being too close to the situation, as a Glaswegian. There are Glasgow seats that, had they been anywhere else in the country, all the evidence would suggest to me that they were going to change hands. Being right there, I can't comprehend the swing required to get rid of the local. 

The lucky thing is, even if SNP did sweep the board, the final computation of the election would not change from the final here. 


Tories
1. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – David Mundell. 4.5% swing needed to Labour. Tories only seat in Scotland currently. Polling suggests this is a dead heat between the Tories and SNP, with a sizeable Labour vote well back in third place. A toss up for the tactical voters then. SNP, uncertainly.



Labour
1. Falkirk – vacant. Requires 7.7% swing to SNP, the disgraced Eric Joyce’s former seat. Popular local candidate John McNally running for SNP, who has the backing of the popular former MP for the area, Dennis Canavan. With the bad press around the departing Labour MP, and local momentum behind the SNP, should be a big gain. SNP.

2. Aberdeen North – Frank Doran (retiring). Contains Aberdeen University. Held by Labour since 1935, needs 11.1% swing to the SNP. LABOUR

3. Aberdeen South – Anne Begg. Lib dems need a 4% swing. LABOUR.

4. Airdrie and Shotts – Pamela Nash. Requires a 17.3% swing to SNP. MP was nearly deselected, winning selection 55/37. Ashcroft poll has SNP ahead by 8. SNP.

5. Ayr Carrick and Cumnock – Sandra Osborne. Requires 10.8% swing to the Tories. Despite being a Labour rebel, polling suggests she is 11 points behind the SNP, who are achieving swings off all the other main parties. SNP.

6. Central Ayrshire – Brian Donohoe. Requires 13.6% swing. SNP vote doubled in 2010, but not at Donohoe’s expense, as he got an increased majority. LABOUR

7. Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill – Tom Clarke. Requires a 24.9% swing to the SNP. Ashcroft has SNP 3 ahead (!!), within the margin of error. When the tidal wave SNP poll came out in 2008, even Salmond admitted Clarke would withstand it on level of swing required and incumbency factor. Famous last words, I just can’t see the SNP taking this seat. LABOUR.

8. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – Gregg McClymont. Requites a 16.7% swing to the SNP. SNP took the Holyrood equivalent in 2011. Local SNP candidate campaigning on saving threatened jobs nearby. Polling has the Nats 18 ahead. SNP.

9. Dumfries and Galloway – Russell Brown. Requires a 7.1% swing to the Tories. Should be reasonably safe, there hasn’t been a large increase in SNP votes recorded yet. Or at least there wasn’t until polling came out with Brown in third place behind the SNP and Tories. It is however a tight three way within the margin of error. LABOUR.

10. Dundee West – Jim McGovern. Requires a 9.8% swing. Dundee voted big for Independence, and Ashcroft has found the SNP running 34 points ahead of McGovern. Ouch. Slowly but surely, politics has gone to the SNP in Dundee over the last decade – council, regional, national. McGovern would do well to avoid the tide. SNP.

11. Dunfermline and West Fife – Thomas Doherty/ Requires a 5.6% swing to the Lib Dems. If all precedent is carried out, that seventeen thousand Lib Dem voters are going to evaporate, and god knows where they wind up. Flock to the SNP en masse, as in parts of Scotland in 2011, and it puts the seat in too close to call territory. The SNP and Liberals tended to fight over the votes in Dunfermline itself, so this is a strong possibility. Too close to call, I’ll stick with the incumbent till more info is known. LABOUR.

12. East Kilbridge, Strathhaven and Lesmahagow – Michael McCann. 14.2% swing to SNP required. East Kilbride was won in the 2011 Holyrood elections by the SNP. LABOUR

13. East Lothian – Fiona O’Donnell. Requires a 12.5% swing to the Tories. Tories/Lib/SNP were all quite close in 2010, but miles behind Labour. There was a mass swing (5%) from Lib to Lab in 2010 though. LABOUR

14. East Renfrewshire – Jim Murphy. 10.2% swing required to the Tories, 21% swing if we’re talking SNP. Tory vote has remained fairly stable this century, however, so SNP would have to take votes in Barrhead and Neilston, in which I happen to know Murphy has strong incumbency popularity with pockets of the population. I know lovers of schadenfreude, bitter Indy Refers, and curious constitutional politics fans would like to see what happens if he loses here, but I just can’t see it. Ashcroft polling showing its within the margin of error – 1 point – between Murphy and the Nats would, I’d assume, get the Murphy vote out in force. LABOUR.

15. Edinburgh East – Sheila Gilmore. Requires 11.5% swing to the SNP. Again, if the Lib Dem vote went to the SNP, we’d be in margin of error territory. Local advice is SNP are certs. SNP

16. Edinburgh South – Ian Murray. Now this is an interesting one as the majority last time out was 316 ahead of the Lib Dems. Lib Dems lost 26 thousand voters in 2011 in the Edinburgh region. Mind you, the Greens are running, and the student vote *might* go over there. LABOUR.

17. Edinburgh South West – Alistair Darling (retiring). Needs 9.3% swing to Tories. Darling had a strong personal vote. Which has disappeared without him, as polls have SNP 13 points clear. However, if Scots Labour were to prioritise their money, this might be a seat they oculd hold. LABOUR.

18. Glasgow Central – Anas Sarwar. Needs 17.2% swing. Contains Calton, Gorbals, Pollokshields and Strathclyde and Caley Uni campuses. Ashcroft has SNP ahead by 10. SNP.

19. Glasgow East – Margaret Curran. Needs 18.4% swing to SNP. Unpopular MP in her area. 14 point lead for SNP in Ashcroft poll. According to the Scotsman, Curran is trying to divert crucial Labour funds into holding her own seat. SNP

20. Glasgow North – Ann McKechin. 6.7% swing to the Lib Dems required. 9283 Lib Dem voters in 2010, if they disappeared en masse to SNP (once again, IF), it would put the seat well into margin of error category. Lib Dems were always strong in this area, it was once a SDP stronghold in Glasgow Kelvin. (Which makes their 4% polling all the more noticeable.) Ashcroft polls, again, have SNP 12 ahead. I can’t conceive of all six Labour seats he forecasts this way dropping, the tendency for vote to revert to the mean is so strong that if we see even 50% of those predictions come true we are in completely uncharted Westminster territory. That said, McKechin was the smallest swing required, so may be most vulnerable to an SNP tide. SNP’s Patrick Grady is a prominent local campaigner. SNP

21. Glasgow North East – Willie Bain. Requires a 27.1% swing. Even Ashcroft couldn’t forecast an SNP gain here. This will probably be the seat least targeted by the SNP iN Glasgow – its too safe. LABOUR.

22. Glasgow north West – John Robertson. Requires 19.1% swing. Its within margin of error in polls. LABOUR.

23. Glasgow South – Tom Harris. Requires 15.8% swing. My old constituency. The local MP is, err, the local MP. So to speak. Ashcroft has SNP 15 ahead. With the caveat that if these polls were anywhere else in the country I’d go against the incumbent. Blinded by being too close to the seat. However, even the incumbent has apparently admitted its an uphill task. LABOUR

24. Glasgow South West – Ian Davidson. My current MP. 23.1% swing required. Ashcroft has the seat in the margin of error. SNP candidate is well known locally, running here in 2010 (and nearly running me over on election day 2010 at a blind crossing!). LABOUR.

25. Glenrothes – Lindsay Roy (retiring). Roy, a pal of Gordon Browns, is retiring due to poor health. A local teacher, he had a massive incumbency vote last election (40.6%!) despite only taking the seat in 2008 after the death of the previous MP. I think the seat position is safe enough, though it’d be far safer if not for Mr Roy’s unfortunate ill health. (And all the best to him, naturally.) LABOUR

26. Inverclyde – Iain McKenzie. 19.2% swing required. LABOUR.

27. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath – Gordon Brown (retiring). Now word on the ground is that this seat is polling 50/50 since the highly popular local MP (and former Prime Minister, you may have heard of him) announced his retirement. Now, Brown had a large incumbency factor (across Scotland in 2010 in fact) but it would still need a 25.1% swing to topple his successor. SNP membership in the area has increased six times over since the Indy Ref. Possibly a call ‘em. Ashcroft has a 6 point lead for SNP just to make it seem more so. LABOUR.

28. Lanark and Hamilton East – Jimmy Hood. Requires a 14.5% swing. Strong incumbency factor. LABOUR.

29. Linlithgow and East Falkrik – Michael Connarty. Requires a 12.2% swing. LABOUR.

30. Livingston – Graeme Morrice. Requires 11.2% swing. LABOUR.

31. Midlothian – David Hamilton (retiring). 13.2% swing. LABOUR

32. Motherwell and Wishaw – Frank Roy. Polling has SNP 11% ahead. SNP.

33. North Ayrshire and Arran – Katy Clark. 10.7% swing required. A popular local MP, but one in great trouble. LABOUR

34. Ochil and South Perthshire – Gordon Banks. Requires a 5.1% swing. Two horse race between incumbent with loose majority by Scottish standards and notable (but controversial) SNP candidate. SNP.

35. Paisley and Renfrewshire North – James Sheridan. Requires 17.5% swing. LABOUR

36. Paisley and Renfrewshire South – Douglas Alexander. Ashcroft polls have SNP 8 points ahead. Alexander does seem to have his ostrich act on about it which suggests hes more at danger than others with wider swings reported. SNP.

37. Stirling – Anne McGuire (retiring). Requires 8.9% swing, 7000 Lib Dem voters in the area though. Incumbency going, SNP swing in area. SNP.

38. Edinburgh North and Leith – Mark Lazarowicz. Needs 1.8% swing to Lib Dems, which wont happen. If the Lib Dem vote goes to SNP en masse, it could be difficult. Greens running though, I could see Lazarowicz holding on in a split of the opposition. LABOUR.

39. Kilmarnock and Loudoun – Cathy Jamieson. 13.3% swing required. LABOUR

40. Rutherglen and Hamilton West – Tom Greatrex. Requires 22.3% swing. Could be close. LABOUR

41. West Dumbartonshire – Gemma Doyle. Ashcroft has SNP 9 points ahead. SNP



SNP
1. Angus – Michael Weir. Requires 4.3% swing to Tories. Should be a hold. SNP

2. Banff and Buchan – Eilidh Whiteford. Requires 5.2% swing to Tories. SNP

3. Dundee East – Stewart Hosie 2.3% swing to Labour required. Tony Blair has put money into the Labour movement here, and it would be so Patrick Gordon Walker if they were to gain seats but lose Hosie. The swing in Dundee should prevent it though, I think. SNP.

4. Moray – Angus Robertson. Requires 6.8% swing.SNP.

5. Na h-Eileanan an Iar – Angus MacNeil. Requires 6.4% swing to Labour. SNP.

6. Perth and north Perthshire – Pete Wishart. Requires 4.5% swing. SNP.






EAST OF ENGLAND





1. Basildon and Billericay – John Barron (Con). Requires a 14.8% swing to Labour. One of only five seats in 2010 to have over 50% of the vote to the Tories. Safe as houses. TORY

2. South Basildon and East Thurrock. Stephen Metcalfe (Con). Requires 6.4% swing to Labour. 6000 Lib Dem voters in 2010. TORY

3. Bedford. Richard Fuller (Con). 1.5% swing required to the Labour. So tight a majority for UKIP to eat into the Tory vote. There’s also the question of where the Lib Dem votes go to. Polling last year had a 9point lead for Labour. LABOUR.

4. Mid Bedfordshire. Nadine Dorries (Con). Requires 13.8% swing. TORY

5. North East Bedfordshire. Alistair Burt (Con). Requires 17% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

6. South West Bedfordshire. Andrew Selous (Con). Requires 16.4% swing to Labour. TORY

7. Braintree. Brookes Newmark (resigning) (Con). Requires 16.4% swing to Labour. TORY

8. Brentwood and Ongar. Eric Pickles (Con). Requires a 16.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

9. Broadland. Keith Simpson (Con). Requires 6.9% swing to Lib Dem. Lib Dem vote collapsing in the seat. TORY.

10. Broxbourne. Charles Walker (Con). Requires a 20.6% swing to the Labour. Sizeable UKIP too far behind. TORY.

11. Bury St Edmonds. David Ruffley (Con). Requires 10.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

12. North East Cambridgeshire. Stephen Barclay (Con). Requires 15.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

13. North West Cambridgeshire. Shailesh Vara (Con). Requires 14.3% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

14. South Cambridgeshire. Andrew Lansley (retiring)(Con). Requires a 6.6% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

15. South East Cambridgeshire. James Paice (Con). Requires a 5.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

16. Castle Point. Rebecca Harris (Con). Requires a 15% swing to Labour, with Bob Spinks 12k in there, who should, presumably, return to the Tory fold. Polling in February (Ashcroft) has Harris 1 point clear of UKIP who appear to have munched most of Spinks 27% as well as taken a chunk of the Tory or Lib Dem votes. One to, maybe, watch. TORY

17. Chelmsford. Simon Burns (Con). Requires 4.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

18. Clacton. Douglas Carswell (UKIP). UKIP hold.

19. Epping Forest. Eleanor Laing (Con). Requires a 16.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY.

20. Great Yarmouth. Brandon Lewis (Con). Requires 4.9% swing to Labour. Polling has it a three way marginal between Tory, UKIP and Labour. TORY.

21. Harlow. Robert Halfon (Con). Requires a 5.6% swing to Labour. TORY

22. Harwick and North Essex. Bernard Jenkin (Con). Requires a 11.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

23. Hemel Hempstead. Michael Penning (Con). Requires a 13.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

24. Hertford and Stortford. Mark Prisk (Con). Requires a 13.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

25. North East Hertfordshire. Oliver Heald (Con). Requires 15% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

26. South West Hertfordshire. David Gauke (Con). Requires 13.1% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

27. Hertsmere. James Clappison (Con). Requires a 16.6% swing to Labour. TORY

28. Hitchin and Harpenden. Peter Lilley (Con). Requires a 13.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

29. Huntingdon. Jonathan Djanogly (Con). Requires a 9.9% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

30. Ipswich. Ben Gummer (Con). Requires a 2.2% swing to Labour. UKIP taking Tory voters in polls and locals.LABOUR.

31. Maldon. John Whittingdale (Con). Requires 20.2% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

32. Mid Norfolk. George Freeman (Con). Requires a 13.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

33. North Wet Norfolk. Henry Bellingham (Con). Requires a 15.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

34. South Norfolk. Richard Bacon (Con). Requires a 9.9% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

35. South West Norfolk. Elizabeth Truss (Con). Requires a 13.3% swing to Lib Dems. Lib Dem vote crashing to lost deposit levels in elections since 2010. Labour increased but no where near enough. UKIP roaring into 2nd place. TORY.

36. Norwich north. Chloe Smith (Con). 4.6% swing to Labour. Too close to call in polls, slight Labour edge. LABOUR.

37. Peterborough. Stewart Jackson (Con). Requires a 5.4% swing to Labour. Incumbent got a bit of coverage on Buzzfeed for his tetchy letter to a gay constituent. LABOUR.

38. Rayleigh and Wickford. Mark Francois (Con). Requires a 21.3% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

39. ROchford and Southend East. James Duddridge (Con). 13.2% swing to Labour required. Seemingly UKIP might be doing well here. TORY

40. Saffron Walden. Alan Haselhurst (Con). Requires 14% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

41. St Albans. Anne Main (Con). Requires 2.2% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

42. Southend West. David Amess (Con). 8.3% swing to Lib Dems required. TORY.

43. Stevenage. Stephen McPartland (Con). Requires 4% swing to Labour. Labour 8 ahead in Ahcroft poll. LABOUR.

44. Central Suffolk and Ipswich North. Daniel Poulter (Con). 12.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

45. Suffolk Coastal. Therese Coffey (Con). Requires 8.3% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

46. South Suffolk. Tim Yeo (Con). Requires 8.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

47. West Suffolk. Matthew Hancock (Con). Requires a 13.5% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

48. Thurrock. Jackie Doyle-Price (Con). 0.1% swing to Labour required. Now a massive three way fight between Labour, Tory and UKIP, with UKIP leading in some polls. UKIP.

49. Watford. Richard Harrington (Con). Requires 1.3% swing to Lib Dems, and one many pundits think might be the Lib Dem shock gain of the election. They’ve picked the Mayor of Watford, Dorothy Thornhill. It’s a pick ‘em 3 way, within the margin of error in polling. TORY.

50. Waveney.Peter Aldous (Con). 0.7% swing required to the Labour. Unpopular local MP. LABOUR.

51. Welwyn Hatfield. Grant Shapps (Con). Requires 17.8% to the Labour. TORY.

52. Witham. Priti Patel (Con). Requires 16.2% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

53. Luton North. Kelvin Hopkins (Labour). Requires a 8.7% to Tories.LABOUR

54. Luton South. Gavin Shuker (Labour). Requires 2.7% swing to Tories. LABOUR.





EAST MIDLANDS





1. Amber Valley. Nigel Mills (Con). Requires a 0.6% swing to Labour. Polling has Labour narrowly ahead. LABOUR

2. Boston and Skegness. Mark Simmonds (Con). Requires a 14.4% swing to Labour. Labour have a limited but steady vote though, and it is UKIP who have appeared to challenge the seat now. A very limited Survation survey last September had UKIP 19 points ahead, a more sensible poll size from Ashcroft in February had it a 3 point lead for the Tories. So well within the margin of error. TORY

3. Bosworth. David Tredinnick (Con). Requires 4.6% swing to Lib Dems. The incumbent is the astrology believing member of the health and science committee. He also got suspended under the Cash for Questions issue. No worthwhile opposition here though. TORY.

4. Broxtowe. Anna Soubry (Con). Requires a 0.35% swing or 170 votes swing to the Labour. Seat polled multiple times in last year with heavy 9 point lead for Labour. LABOUR

5. Charnwood. Stephen Dorrell (Con). Requires a 14% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

6. Corby. Andy Sawford (Lab). Won it back from Louise Mensch in a 2012 byelection. Labour solidly ahead in polling in a seat they’ve held – those 2 years aside – since 1997. LABOUR

7. Daventry. Chris Heaton-harris (Con). Requires a 18.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

8. Derbyshire dales. Patrick McLoughlin (Con). Requires a 14.8% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

9. Mid Derbyshire. Pauline Latham (Con). 11.9% swing required to Labour. TORY

10. South Derbyshire. Heather Wheeler (Con). Requires 7% swing to Labour. TORY

11. Erewash. Jessica Lee (Con). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Labour. Polling has Labour 8 points ahead. LABOUR

12. Gainsborough. Edward Leigh (Con). Requires 10.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

13. Grantham and Stamford. Nicholas Boles (Con). Requires a 14% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

14. Harborough. Edward Garnier (Con). Requires an 8.9% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

15. High Peak. Andrew Bingham (Con). Requires 4.6% swing to Labour. Massively key fight between Labour and Tories. Recent polls have Labour one ahead, and really, if there is to be any kind of sea change, this’ll be one of the First Column seats Bob McKenzie used to like to refer to. LABOUR

16. Kettering. Philip Hollobone (Con). Requires 9.6% to Labour. TORY until I find more info.

17. North West Leicestershire. Andrew Bridgen (Con). Requires a 7.2% swing to Labour. Despite some local issues, TORY.

18. South Leicestershire. Andrew Robathan (Con) (retiring). Requires a 14.2% swing to Labour. TORY

19. Lincoln. Karl McCartney (Con). Requires a 1.2% swing to Labour. Dick Taverne’s seat when he famously won as Independent Labour in the February 1974 elections after being deselected by his local party. LABOUR, needs more info.

20. Loughborough. Nicky Morgan (Con). Requires a 3.5% swing. Education Secretary. Pundits think it might be in trouble. LABOUR.

21. Louth and Horncastle. Sir Peter Tapsell (Con) (Retiring). Requires a 13.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

22. Newark. Robert Jenrick (Con). Requires a 15.7% swing to Labour. TORY.

23. Northampton North. Michael Ellis (Con). Requires a 2.4% swing to Labour. A bellweather seat since 1974. LABOUR.

24. Northampton South. Brian Binley (Con) (retiring). Requires a 7.7% swing to Labour. TORY

25. South Northamptonshire. Andrea Leadsom (Con). Requires 17.1% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

26. Rushcliffe. Kenneth Clarke (Con). Requires 14.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

27. Rutland and Melton. Alan Duncan (Con). Requires a 12.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

28. Sherwood. Mark Spencer (Con). Requires a 0.2% swing to Labour. Polling suggests 12 point lead for Labour. LABOUR

29. Sleaford and North Hykeham. Stephen Philips (Con). Requires a 16.8% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

30. South Holland and the Deepings. John Hayes (Con). Requires a 21.8% to Lib Dems. TORY

31. Wellingborough. Peter Bone (Con). Requires a 11.4% swing to Labour. TORY.

32. Ashfield. Gloria de Piero (Lab). Requires an 0.2% swing to Lib Dems. Lib Dems are actually increasing in area, but Labour should hold this time out. LABOUR.

33. Bassetlaw. John Mann (Lab). Requires an 8.3% swing to Tories. LABOUR.

34. Bolsover. Dennis Skinner (Lab). Requires a 12.7% swing to Tories. Not going to happen. LABOUR.

35. Chesterfield. Toby Perkins (Lab). Requires a 0.6% swing to Lib Dems. LABOUR.

36. Derby North. Chris Williamson (Lab).Majority of 613 in a three way marginal. Vastly increased majority suggested in polls however. LABOUR

37. Derbhy South. Margaret Beckett (Lab). Requires a 7.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR

38. North East Derbyshire. Natascha Engel (Lab). Requires a 2.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR

39. Gedling. Vernon Coaker (Lab). Requires a 1.9% swing to Tories. LABOUR

40. Leicester East. Keith Vaz (Lab). Requires a 14.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR

41. Leicester West. Jonathan Ashworth (Lab). Requires a 9.3% swing to Lib Dems. LABOUR

42. Leiecester South. Liz Kendall (Lab). 5.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR

43. Mansfield. Alan Meale (Lab). Requires a 6.2% swing to Tories. LABOUR

44. Nottingham East. Christopher Leslie (Lab). Requires a 10.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR

45. Nottingham North. Graham Allen (Lab). Requires a 11.8% swing to Tories. LABOUR.

46. Nottingham South. Lilian Greenwood (Lab). Requires a 2.1% swing to Tories. 9400 Lib Dem voters last time out. Student seat. Con/Lab marginal. LABOUR



LONDON




1. Battersea. Jane Ellison (Con). Requires a 6.1% swing to Labour. TORY.

2. Beckenham. Bob Stewart (Con). Requires a 16.6% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

3. Bexleyheath and Crayford. David Evennett (Con). Requires 12% swing to Labour. TORY.

4. Brentford and Isleworth. Mary MacLeod (Con). Requires 1.8% swing to Labour. Labour massively ahead -1 3 – in polls. LABOUR.

5. Bromley and Chislehurst. Bob Neill (Con). Requires a 15.8% swing to Lib Dems. TORY.

6. Chelsea and Fulham. Greg Hands (Con). Requires a 21% swing to Labour. TORY

7. Chingford and Woodford Green. Iain Duncan Smith (Con). Requires a 15% to Labour. TORY.

8. Chipping Barnet. Theresa Villiers (Con). Requires a 11.8% swing to Labour. TORY

9. Cities of London and Westminster. Mark Field (Con). Requires a 15% swing to Labour. TORY

10. Croydon Central – Gavin Barwell (Con). Requires a 2.9% swing to Labour. Tories feel unconfident. Labour 6 up in Ashcroft poll. Croydon Advertiser campaigning heavily against incumbent. Evening Standard suggests heavy Tory money going into the defence. One of the leading Labour names in the seat, Gerry Ryan, died of cancer in January. LABOUR

11. Croydon South – Richard Ottaway (Con) (retiring). Requires a 14% swing to Labour. Tories feel unconfident. Emily Benn is running for Labour. The Green candidate is a Peter Underwood, presumably not the recently departed ghost hunter, else that’d be a hell of a feat! TORY

12. Ealing Central and Acton. Angie Bray (Con). Requires 3.9% swing to Labour. Polling has Labour 6 points ahead. LABOUR

13. Enfield north – Nick de Bois (Con). Requires 1.9% swing to Labour. Tory activists on the ground highly dispirited. Labour 10 ahead in polls. LABOUR.

14. Enfield Southgate –David Burrowes (Con). Requires a 8.6% swing. Meant to be 50/50 on the ground. Anecdotal evidence of Burrowes campaigning in the wrong constituency. LABOUR

15. Finchley and Golders Green. Mike Freer (Con). Rquires a 6.1% swing to Labour. TORY.

16. Harrow East. Bob Blackman (Con). Requires a 3.5% swing to Labour. Possible expenses scandal here, watch this space. Polling has it within margin of error. TORY

17. Hendon. Matthew Offord (Con). Requires 53 votes swing to Labour. The kind of seat that will go on any kind of Labour polling. Polling has Labour 10 ahead. LABOUR.

18. Hornchurch and Upminster. Angela Watkinson (Con). Requires 15.3% swing to Labour. TORY

19. Ilford North. Lee Scott (Con). Requires 5.7% swing to Labour. TORY.

20. Kensington. Malcolm Rifkind (Con) (retiring). You might have heard of the recent developments that required Rifkind to step down. Whoever the Tory candidate winds up being, its safer than houses for the Tories. Needs a 12.2% swing, wont happen. TORY.

21. Old Bexley and Sidcup. James Brokenshire (Con). Requires a 17.4% swing to Labour. Ted Heath’s old seat. TORY

22. Orpington. Jo Johnson (Con). Requires 16.6% to Lib Dems. TORY.

23. Putney. Justine Greening (Con). Requires a 12.3% swing to Labour. TORY.

24. Richmond Park. Zac Goldsmith (Con). Requires a 3.5% swing to Labour. TORY

25. Romford. Andrew Rosindell (Con). Requires a 18.2% swing to Labour. TORY.

26. Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. Nick Hurd (Con). Requires a 19% swing to Labour. TORY

27. Uxbridge and Ruislip South. John Randall (Con) (Retiring). Requires a 12.4% swing to Labour. Boris Johnson is running for the Tories. Dead cert Tory hold, most interesting – apart from any coups for the Tory leadership incoming – to look for on the night is Howling Laud Hope of the Loonies is running in this seat. We need more nutters running – where is Lord Buckethead and the Landless Peasant Party chap these days? TORY

28. Wimbledon. Stephen Hammond (Con). Requires a 12% swing to Lib Dems. You’d have thought a heavy Green party vote in this seat, because, because...Wombles. Sorry, couldn’t resist. Never mind the Crazy Gang, you’d be crazy to go against the Tory hold here on lack of elsewise noise. TORY.

29. Barking. Margaret Hodge (Lab). Requires a 18.2% swing to Tories. Hodge famously told Nick Griffin to “Get to Falkirk” (at least I think the jist was something sounding like Falkirk) in the last election. Labour swings in the locals, and they won all the seats on the council. LABOUR

30. Bethnal Green and bow. Rushanara Ali (Lab). Requires a 11.4% swing to Lib Dems. Now there might be a side story here with Tower Hamlets First running and splitting the Labour vote, but they haven’t announced a run yet. LABOUR, for now.

31. Brent North. Barry Gardiner (Lab). Requires a 7.7% swing to Tories. LABOUR.

32. Camberwell and Peckham. Hariet Harman (Lab). Requires a 18.4% swing to Labour. Harman has been the local MP since 1982. Safe. LABOUR.

33. Croydon North. Steve Reed (Lab). Requires a 15.5% to the Tories. LABOUR.

34. Dagenham and Rainham. Jon Cruddas (Lab). Requires a 2.9% swing to Tories. YouGov suggest UKIP are doing very well here though. LABOUR

35. Dulwich and West Norwood. Tessa Jowell (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 9.7% to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

36. Ealing North. Stephen Pound (Lab). Requires 9.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

37. Ealing Southall. Virenda Sharma (Lab). Requires a 10.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

38. East Ham. Stephen Timms (Lab). Requires a 27.6% swing to the Tories. Timms won 70% of the vote in 2010! Which was actually down on his 73% in 2001! LABOUR.

39. Edmonton. Andrew Love (Lab). (retiring). Requires a 11.9% swing to Tories. LABOUR.

40. Eltham. Clive Efford (Lab). Requires a 2% swing to Tories. UKIP Have been eating into the Tories here, and voter demographics are changing in favour of Labour. LABOUR.

41. Erith and Thameshead. Teresa Pearce (Lab). Requires 6.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

42. Feltham and Heston. Seema Malhotra (Lab). Requires a 4.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

43. Greenwich and Woolwich. Nick Raynsford (Lab). Requires 12.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

44. Hackney North and Stoke Newington. Diane Abbott (Lab). Requires a 15.5% swing to Lib Dems. LABOUR.

45. Hackney South and Shoreditch. Meg Hillier (Lab). Requires 16.7% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

46. Hammersmith. Andy Slaughter (Lab). Requires a 3.7% swing to the Tories. 8% swing to the Labour in the locals in 2014. LABOUR.

47. Hampstead and Kilburn. Glenda Jackson (Lab) (retiring). 0.05% swing to the Tories or 21 votes. A knife edge. Ashcroft polling has Labour 17 ahead, but the local Tories are v convinced they can gain this, to the point their candidate has resigned his seat on the local council. A 9% swing against national trends TO the Tories in 9 months would suggest larger issues nationwide though. LABOUR, for now.

48. Harrow West. Gareth Thomas (Lab). Requires a 3.4% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

49. Hayes and Harlington. John McDonnell (Lab). Requires a 12.7% swing to Tories. Small swing to the Labour in the locals. LABOUR.

50. Holborn St Pancras. Frank Dobson (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 9.1% swing to the Lib Dem. Keir Starmer is running here for Labour, and might be a name to watch in the very near future. Natalie Bennett is also running here, for the Greens. She might hold her deposit if she’s lucky. LABOUR.

51. Ilford South. Mike Gapes (Lab). Requires an 11% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

52. Islington North. Jeremy Corbyn (Lab). Requires a 13.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

53. Islington South and Finsbury. Emily Thornberry (Lab). Requires a 4.1% swing to the Lib Dem. LABOUR.

54. Lewisham Deptford. Joan Ruddock (Lab) (retiring). Requires 15.1% swing to Lib dems. LABOUR.

55. Lewisham East. Heidi Alexander (Lab). Requires a 7.4% to Lib Dems. LABOUR.

56. Lewisham West and Penge. Jim Dowd (Lab). Requires a 6.4% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

57. Leyton and Wanstead. John Cryer (Lab). Requires an 8% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

58. Mitcham and Morden. Siobhain McDonagh (Lab). Requires a 15.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

59. Poplar and limehouse. Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab). Requires a 6.4% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

60. Streatham. Chuka Umunna (Lab). Requires a 3.5% swing to the Lib Dems. Greens campaigning on the ground, think they might take a lot of votes off the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

61. Tooting. Sadiq Khan (Lab). Requires a 2.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

62. Tottenham. David Lammy (Lab). Requires a 20.8% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

63. Vauxhall. Kate Hoey (Lab). Requires 12.3% to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

64. Waltshamstow. Stella Creasy (Lab). Requires a 11.5% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

65. West Ham. Lyn Brown (Lab). Requires a 24% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

66. Westminster North. Karen Buck (Lab). Requires a 2.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.




NORTH EAST




1. Hexham. Guy Opperman (Con). Requires a 6.6% swing to the Lib Dems. One of the Tories few strongholds in the area. TORY.

2. Stockton South. James Wharton (Con). Requires a 0.35% swing or 171 votes to Labour. A seat you’d expect to swing, though all the correspondence from the ground is that Labour are in trouble. The Lib Dem vote (7600 votes in 2010) appears to be going to the Tories. The polls – from Labour 3 ahead to Tories 2 ahead – are all over the place. Quite possibly on the night Labour might gain seats utterly unexpected, but manage to miss this one. TORY.

3. Bishop Auckland. Helen Goodman (Lab). Requires a 6.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

4. Blaydon. David Anderson (Lab). Requires a 10.1% swing to the Lib Dems. Held by Labour since 1935. LABOUR.

5. Blyth Valley. Ronnie Campbell (Lab). Requires a 8.6% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

6. Darlington. Jenny Chapman (Lab). Requires a 3.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

7. City of Durham. Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab). Requires a 3.3% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

8. North Durham. Kevan Jones (Lab). Requires a 15.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

9. North West Durham. Pat Glass (Lab). Requires a 8.7% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

10. Easington. Grahame Morris (Lab). Requires a 21.4% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

11. Gateshead. Ian Mearns (Lab). Requires a 16.4% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

12. Hartlepool. Iain Wright (Lab). Requires a 7.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

13. Houghton and Sunderland South. Bridget Phillipson (Lab). Requires a 14.4% swing to Tories. LABOUR

14. Jarrow. Stephen Hepburn (Lab). Requires a 16.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

15. Middlesbrough. Andrew McDonald (Lab). Requires a 13% swing to the Lib Dems.LABOUR

16. Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Tom Blekinsop (Lab). Requires a 1.8%swing to the Tories. LABOUR

17. Newcastle upon Tyne Central.Chi Onwurah (Lab). Requires a 10.9% swing to the Lib Dem. LABOUR.

18. Newcastle upon Tyne East. Nick Brown (Lab). Requires a 5.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

19. Newcastle Upon Tyne North. Catherine McKinnell (Lab). Requires a 3.9% swing to the Lib Dems. Li Dem voting going down in local though. LABOUR

20. Sedgefield. Phil Wilson (Lab). Requires a 10.8% swing to the Tories. I think his predecessor was famous. LABOUR

21. South Shields. Emma Lewell-Buck (Lab). Requires a 15.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

22. Stockton North. Alex Cunningham (Lab). Requires a 8.4% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

23. Sunderland Central. Julie Elliott (Lab) Requires a 7.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

24. Tynemouth. Alan Campbell (Lab). Requires a 5.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

25. North Tyneside. Mary Glindon (Lab). Requires a 13.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

26. Wansbeck. Ian LAvery (Lab). Requires a 9.2% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

27. Washington and Sunderland West. Sharon Hodgson (Lab). Requires a 15.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR




NORTH WEST




1. Altrincham and Sale West. Graham Brady (Con). Requires a 11.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

2. Blackpool North and Cleverleys. Paul Maynard (Con). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Labour. Polling suggests Tories holding on, just. TORY

3. Bury North. David Nuttall (Con). Requires a 2.5% swin g to Labour. Possible LABOUR gain, needs more information.

4. Carlisle. John Stevenson. (Con). Requires a 1% swing to the Labour. LABOUR gain.

5. City of Chester. Stephen Mosley (Con). Requires a 2.7% swing to the Labour. Too close to call in polls. TORY.

6. Congleton. Fiona Bruce (Con). Requires a 6.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY.

7. Crewe and Nantwich. Edward Timpson (Con). Requires a 5.9% swing to the Labour. Polling done 2 years ago by Survation (both require pinches of salt) suggested Labour gaining due to a high UKIP vote eating into the Tory share. The seat was Labour under the late Gwyn Dunwoody for nearly 40 years. LABOUR.

8. Eddisbury. Stephen O’Brien (Con) (retiring). Requires a 14.6% swing to the Labour. TORY

9. Fylde. Mark Menzies (Con). Requires a 15.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

10. Lancaster and Fleetwood. Eric Ollerenshaw (Con). Requires a 0.4% swing to the Labour. Lib Dem vote crashing, polling has Labour massively ahead, local PPC. LABOUR.

11. Macclesfield. David Rutley (Con). Requires a 11.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

12. Morecamble and Lunesdale. David Morris (Con). Requires a 1% swing to the Labour. Unpopular incumbent, an area with UKIP and vast Green support, Lib Dems in free fall, and Labour ahead in the polls. Final results could be v. Intriguing, but if Lancaster is going Labour, you’d have to expect Morecambe to do likewise. LABOUR.

13. Pendle. Andrew Stephenson (Con). Requires a 4% swing to the Labour. Polling has Stephenson ahead on the incumbency prompting. TORY

14. Penrith and the border. Rory Stewart (Con). Requires a 12.4% swing to the Lib Dems. The current MP was little over a year old when the seats former MP, Willie Whitelaw, lost out in the Tory leadership elections to a Margaret Thatcher. Massively popular local MP, especially after action taken during the Scottish Indy Ref campaign. TORY

15. Ribble valley. Nigel Evans (Con). Requires 14.1% swing to the Labour. TORY.

16. Rossendale and darwen. Jake Berry (Con). Requires a 4.7% swing to the Labour. TORY.

17. South ribble. Lorraine Fullbrook (Con) (retiring). Requires a 5.4% swing to the Labour. Local Labour PPC heavy on the ground. TORY, for now.

18. Tatton. George Osborne (Con). Requires a 16% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

19. Warrington south. David Mowat (Con). 3 way marginal, requires a 1.4% swing to Labour. Tories losing councillors in the locals. Polling has Labour 8 points ahead. LABOUR.

20. Weaver vale. Graham Evans (Con). Requires a 1.1% swing to the Labour. 8000 Lib Dem votes to squeeze. LABOUR.

21. Wirral west. Esther McVey (Con). Requires a 3.1% swing to the Labour. Polling has it within the margin of error, though the gap is widening. Possibly quite a nasty local campaign. LABOUR.

22. Wyre and preston north. Ben Wallace (Con). Requires a 15.4% to the Lib Dems. TORY.

23. Ashton under lyne. David Heyes (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 11.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

24. Barrow and furness. John Woodcock (Lab). Requires a 5.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

25. Birkenhead. Frank Field (Lab). Requires 21.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

26. Blackburn. Jack Straw (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 10.8% swing to the Tories. Straw’s PPC replacement Kate Hollern polled more in the selection ballot than all her other challengers combined. LABOUR.

27. Blackley and broughton. Graham Stringer (Lab). Requires an 18% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

28. Blackpool south. Gordon Marsden (Lab). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

29. Bolton north east. David Crausby (Lab). Requires a 4.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

30. Bolton south east. YasminQureshi (Lab). Requires a 10.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR/

31. Bolton west. Julie Hilling (Lab). Requires a 0.1% swing to the Tories. Polling suggests UKIP vastly taking votes off the Tories. LABOUR.

32. Bootle. Joe Benton (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 25.6% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

33. Bury south. Ivan Lewis (Lab). Requires a 3.4% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.

34. Chorley. Lindsay Hoyle (Lab). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

35. Copeland. Jamie Reed (Lab). Requires a 4.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

36. Denton and reddish. Andrew Gwynne (Lab). Requires a 13.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

37. Ellesmere port and neston. Andrew Miller (Lab). Requires a 4.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

38. Garston and Halewood. Maria Eagle (Lab). Requires a 19.7% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

39. Halton. Derek Twigg (Lab). Requires an 18.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

40. Heywood and middleton. Liz McInnes (Lab). Requires a 6.4% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

41. Hyndburn. Graham Jones (Lab). Requires a 3.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

42. Knowsley. George Howarth (Lab). Requires a 28.7% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

43. Lancashire west. Rosie Cooper (Lab). Requires a 4.5% swing to the Tories. 10% swing in the locals last year from Tories to UKIP. LABOUR

44. Leigh. Andy Burnham (Lab). Requires a 13.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

45. Liverpool riverside. Louise Ellman (Lab). Requires a 18.2% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

46. Liverpool Walton. Steve Rotheram (Lab). Requires a 28.8% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

47. Liverpool Wavertree. Luciana Berger (Lab). Requires a 9.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

48. Liverpool west derby. Stephen Twigg (Lab). Requires a 25.8% swing to the Lib Dems. Twigg went round the constituency several times in the years before 2010, building in an incumbency vote before he even had the seat. LABOUR

49. Makerfield. Yvonne Fovargue (Lab). Requires a 14.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

50. Manchester central. Lucy Powell (Lab). Requires a 13.1% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

51. Manchester gorton. Gerald Kaufman (Lab). Requires a 8.7% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

52. Oldham east. Debbie Abrahams (Lab). 3 way marginal, 56 votes in it in 2010. By-election in 2011 following Phil Woolas’s removal.LABOUR

53. Oldham west. Michael Meacher (Lab). Requires a 10.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

54. Preston. Mark Hendrick (Lab). Requires an 11.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

55. Rochdale. Simon Danczuk (Lab). Requires a 0.9% swing to the Lib Dems. Suspect the Lib Dem anti-Labour vote may chop into 3. LABOUR

56. St Helens north. Dave Watts (Lab). Requires a 14.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

57. St Helens south. Shaun Woodward (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 15.3$ swing to the Lib Dems. Now, the Labour candidate – Marie RImmer –is due to go on trial starting the 19th of this month for assaulting a female voter in Shettleston during the Indy Ref vote in September. Watch this space. LABOUR

58. Salford and Eccles. Hazel Blears (Lab). Requires a 6.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR.

59. Sefton central. Bill Esterson (Lab). Requires a 4% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

60. Stalybridge and hyde. Jonathan Reynolds (Lab). Requires a 3.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

61. Stockport. Ann Coffey (Lab). Requires an 8.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

62. Stetford and Urmston. Kate Green (Lab). Requires a 9.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

63. Wallasey. Angela Eagle (Lab). Requires a 10.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

64. Warrington north. Helen Jones (Lab). Requires a 7.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

65. Wigan. Lisa Nandy (Lab). Requires a 11.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

66. Wirral south. Alison McGovern (Lab). Requires a 0.6% swing to the Tories. UKIP vote eates in the Tories. LABOUR

67. Workington. Tony Cunningham (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 5.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

68. Worsley and ecclessouth.Barbara Keeley (Lab). Requires a 5.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

69. Wythenshawe and sale east.Mike Kane (Lab). Requires a 9.3% swing to the Tories. Was Paul Goggins seat until his early death in 2014. LABOURS




SOUTH EAST





1. Aldershot. Gerald Howarth (Con). Requires a 6.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

2. Arundel and South Downs. Nick Herbert (Con). Requires a 14.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

3. Ashford. Damian Green (Con). Requires a 15.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

4. Aylesbury. David Lidington (Con). Requires a 11.8% swing to the Lib Dems. But within those numbers might lie a story. UKIP came top in the local elections, have had a membership drive, and their PPC is a local councillor who is considered a good campaigner. They’ve been using local issues over HS2 to their advantage. Should be a Tory hold but one, maybe, to watch on the night which has gone under the radar. TORY

5. Banbury. Tony Baldry (Con). Requires a 16.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

6. Basingstoke. Maria Miller (Con). Requires a 13% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

7. Beaconsfield. Dominic Grieve (Con). Requires a 20.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

8. Bexhill and battle. Gregory Barker (Con). Requires a 11.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

9. Bognor regis and Littlehampton. Nick Gibb (Con). Requires a 13.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

10. Bracknell. Philip Lee (Con). Requires a 15.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

11. Brighton Kemptown. Simon Kirby (Con). Requires a 1.5% swing to the Labour. Polling has Labour up 4. LABOUR

12. Canterbury. Julian Brazier (Con). Requires a 6.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

13. Chatham and Aylesford. Tracey Crouch (Con). Requires a 6.9% swing to the Labour. TORY

14. Chesham and Amersham. Cheryl Gillan (Con). Requires a 15.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

15. Chichester. Andrew Tyrie (Con). Requires a 14% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

16. Crawley. Henry Smith (Con). Requires a 6.2% swing to the Labour. TORY till now.

17. Dartford. Gareth Johnson (Con). Requires a 10.6% swing to the Labour. TORY

18. Dover – Charlie Elphicke (Con). Requires a 5.2% swing to the Labour party. A strong Labour vote coupled with UKIP lurking could spell difficulty for the Tories. LABOUR

19. Epsom and ewell. Chris Grayling (Con). Requires a 14.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

20. Esherand Walton. Dominic Raab (Con) Requires a 17.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

21. Fareham. Mark Hoban (Con). Requires 15.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

22. Faversham and mid kent. Hugh Robertson (Con) Requires a 18.3% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

23. Folkestone and hythe. Damian Collins (Con). Requires a 9.6% swing to the Lib Dems. A straight pick ‘em fight between the Tory incumbent and UKIP, but with UKIP gap closing in each poll, I’ll suggest a shock gain. They are taking the Lib Dem vote away and Tory voters. Though, has the Janice Atkinson issue killed the seat for UKIP? UKIP.

24. Gillingham and rainham. Rehman Chishti (Con). Requires a 9.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

25. Gosport. Caroline Dinenage (Con). Requires a 15.3% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

26. Gravesham. Adam Holloway (Con)> Requires a 9.8% swing to the Labour. TORY

27. Guildford. Annie Milton (Con). Requires a 7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

28. East Hampshire. Damian Hinds C(on). Requires a 13.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

29. North east Hampshire. James Arbuthnot (Con). Requires a 17.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

30. North west Hampshire. Sir George Young (Con) (retiring). Requires a 17.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

31. Hastings and rye. Amber Rudd (Con). Requires a 2% swing to the Labour. LABOUR

32. Havant. David WIlletts (Con). Requires a 13.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

33. Henley. John Howell (Con). Requires a 15.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

34. Horsham. Francis Maude (Con) (Retiring). Requires a 10.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

35. Hove. Mike Weatherley (Con). Requires a 1.9% swing to the Labour. Labour ahead in polls. LABOUR.

36. Isle of wight. Andrew Turner (Con). Requires a 7.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

37. Maidenhead. Theresa May (Con). Requires a 15.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

38. Maidstone and the weald – Helen Grant – Requires 6% swing to LibDems. Active UKIP, local Lib Dems have held up well in the local elections, and the incumbent is unpopular. In a perfect storm this *could* be a Lib Dem gain. But as is, one would suspect a Tory hold. TORY.

39. Meon valley. George Hollinbergy (Con). Requires a 11.8% swing to the Lib Dems. Tory.

40. Milton Keynes north. Mark Lancasrer (Con). Requires a 8.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

41. Milton Keynes south. Iain Stewart (Con). Requires a 4.7% swing to the Labour. TORY

42. Mole valley. Paul Beresford (Con). Requires a 14.4% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

43. New Forest East. Julian Lewis (Con). Requires a 11.3$ swing to the Lib Dems.TORY

44. New Forest West. Desmond Swayne (Con). Requires a 17.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

45. Newbury. Richard Benyon (Con). Requires a 10.4% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

46. Oxford West and Abingdon. Nicola Blackwood (Con). Requires a 0.15% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

47. Portsmouth North. Penny Mourdaunt (Con). Requires a 8.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

48. Reading East. Rob Wilson (Con). Requires a 7.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

49. Reading West. Alok Sharma (Con). Requires a 6.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

50. Reigate. Crispin Blunt (Con). Requires a 13.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY.

51. Rochester and Strood. Mark Reckless (UKIP). UKIP might just hold on. UKIP

52. Romsey and Southampton North. Caroline Nokes (Con). Requires a 4.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

53. Runneymede and Weybridge. Philip Hammond (Con). Requires a 17.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

54. Sevenoaks. Michael Fallon (Con). Requires a 17.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

55. Sittingbourne and Sheppey. Gordon Henderson (Con). Requires a 12.7% swing to the Labour. TORY

56. Spelthorne. Kwasi Kwarteng (Con). Requires a 10.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

57. East Surrey. Sam Gyimah (Con). Requires a 15.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

58. Surrey heath. Michael Gove (Con). Requires a 15.9% to the Lib Dems. TORY

59. South west surrey. Jeremy Hunt (Con). Requires a 14.2% to the Lib Dems. TORY

60. Midsussex. Nicholas SOames (Con). Requires a 6.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

61. North thanet. Roger Gale (Con). Requires a 15.6% to the Labour. Polling has UKIP within margin of error in the seat. TORY

62. South thanet. Laura Sandys (Con) (Retiring). Requires an 8.3% swing to the Labour. Nigel Farage is standing for UKIP and heavily ahead in the polls. UKIP

63. Tonbridge and malling. John Stanley (Con). Requires a 17.7% to the Lib Dems. TORY

64. Tunrbirdge wells. Greg Clark (Con). Requires 15.5% to the Lib Dems. TORY

65. Wantage. Ed Vaizey (Con). Requires a 12% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

66. Wealden. Charles Hendry (Con) Requires a 15.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

67. Winchester. Steve Brine (Con). Requires a swing to the Lib Dems of 2.6%. Internal Lib Dem polling suggests they wil win this seat. Colour me sceptical. TORY

68. Windsor. Adam Afriyie (Con). Requires a 19.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

69. Witney. David Cameron (Con). Requires a 18.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

70. Woking. Jonathan Lord (Con). Requires a 6.4% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

71. Wokingham. John Redwood (Con). Requires a 12.3% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

72. Worthing east and shoreham. Tim Loughton (Con). Requires a 11.4% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

73. Worthing west. Peter Bottomley (Con). Requires a 11.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY, for now.

74. Wycombe. Steven Baker (Con). Requires a 9.9% swing on the Lib Dems. TORY.

75. Brighton pavilion. Caroline Lucas (Green). Requires a 1.2% swing to the LABOUR. Polling has Lucas ahead, despite concerted efforts by Labour to win the seat back. GREEN.

76. Buckingham. John Bercow (Speaker)

77. Oxford east. Andrew Smith (Lab). Requires 4.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

78. Slough. Fiona McTaggart (Lab). Requires a 5.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

79. Southampton itchen. John Denham (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 0.2% swing to the Tories. Could be a close one, especially with the George Cross winning Tory candidate. LABOUR, barely.

80. Southampton test. Alan Whitehead (Lab). Requires a 2.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR



SOUTH WEST




1. Bournemouth east. Tobias Ellwood (Con). Requires a 8.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

2. Bournemouth west. Conor Burns (Con). Requires a 6.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

3. Bridgwater and somerset west. Iain Liddell-Grainger (Con). Requires a 8.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

4. Bristol north west. Charlotte Leslie (Con). Requires a 3.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

5. Camborne and redruth. George Eustice (Con). Requires a 0.1% swing to the Lib Dems. Tories and UKIP in a massive fight for this seat. However recent polling has considerable swing to the Tories. TORY

6. Christchurch. Christopher Chope (Con). Requires a 15.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

7. South east cornwall. Sheryll Murphy (Con). Requires a 3.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

8. The Cotswolds. Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con). Requires a 11.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

9. Devizes. Claire Perry (Con). Requires 14.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

10. Central devon. Mel Stride (Con). Requires 8.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

11. East Devon. Hugo Swire (Con). Requires 8.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

12. South west devon. Gary Streeter (Con). Requires a 15.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

13. West devon and Torridge.Geoffrey Cox (Con) Requires a 2.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

14. North dorset. Robert Walter (Con). Requires 7.1% swing to Lib Dems. TORY

15. South dorset. Richard Drax (Con). Requires a 7.4% swing to the Labour. TORY

16. West dorset. Oliver Letwin (Con). Requires a 3.4% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

17. Filton and Bradley stoke. Jack Lopresti (Con). Requires a 7.2% swing to the Labour. TORY

18. Forest of dean. Mark Harper (Con). Requires a 11.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

19. Gloucester. Richard Graham (Con)> Requires a 2.4% swing to the Labour. LABOUR

20. Kingswood. Chris Skidmore (Con). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Labour. TORY

21. Newton abbot. Anne Marie Morris (Con). Requires a 0.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

22. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport. Oliver Colvile (Con). Requires 1.3$% swing to the Labour. Labour 8 points ahead in polls. LABOUR

23. Poole. Robert Syms (Con). Requires a 7.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

24. Salisbury. John Glen (Con). Requires a 6.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

25. North somerset. Liam Fox (Con). Requires a 6.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

26. North east somerset. Jacob Rees Mogg (Con). Requires a 4.8% swing to the Labour. Mogg seems the type of person who’d get the Boris incumbency vote. TORY

27. Stroud. Neil Carmichael (Con). Requires a 1.1% swing to the Labour. Former MP David Drew running for a return to office, and 11 points ahead in polls. LABOUR

28. North Swindon. Justin Tomlinson (Con). Requires a 7% swing to the Labour. TORY

29. South Swindon. Robert Buckland (Con). Requires a 3.7% swing to the Labour. Too close to call. LABOUR

30. Tewkesbury. Laurence Robertson (Con). Requires a 5.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

31. Tiverton and Honiton. Neil Parish (Con). Requires a 8.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

32. Totnes. Sarah Wollaston (Con). Requires a 5.1% swing to the lib Dems. TORY

33. Truro. Sarah Newton (Con). Requires a 0.45% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

34. WestonSupermare. John Penrose (Con). Requires a 2.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

35. North Wiltshire. James Gray (Con). Requires a 7.7% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

36. South West Wiltshire. Andrew Murrison (Con). Requires a 10.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

37. Bristol East. Kerry McCarthy (Lab). Requires a 4.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

38. Bristol South. Dawn Primarolo (Lab). Requires a 4.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

39. Exeter – Ben Bradshaw (Lab). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

40. Plymouth Moor View. Alison Seabeck (Lab). Requires 1.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR




WEST MIDLANDS





1. Aldridge Brownhills. Richard Shepherd (Con). Requires a 19.7% swing to the Labour. TORY

2. Bromsgrove. Sajid Javid (Con). Requires a 10.9% swing to the Labour. TORY

3. Burton. Andrew Griffiths (Con). Requires a 6.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

4. Cannock Chase. Aidan Burley (Con) (Retiring). Requires a 3.5% swing to the Labour. Burley’s public issues during the parliament have turned this into a 3 way marginal with UKIP and Labour both aiming to win. Labour might win against split right wing, through the middle. LABOUR.

5. Dudley South. Chris Kelly (Con) (retiring). Requires a 5.1% swing to the Labour. Swings to Labour, defections to Labour at council level. LABOUR

6. Halesowen. James Morris (Con). Requires a 2.3% swing to the LABOUR. LABOUR.

7. Hereford and South Herefordshire. Jesse Norman (Con). Requires a 2.6% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

8. North Herefordshire. Bill Wiggin (Con). Requires a 10.4% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

9. Kenilworth. Jeremy Wright (Con). Requires a 12.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

10. Lichfield. Michael Fabricant (Con). Requires a 17.1% swing to the Labour. TORY

11. Ludlow. Philip Dunne (Con). Requires a 10% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

12. Meriden. Caroline Spelman (Con). Requires a 15.6% swing to the Labour. TORY

13. Nuneaton. Marcus Jones (Con). Requires a 2.3% swing to the Labour. Labour narrowly ahead in the polls. LABOUR

14. Redditch. Karen Lumley (Con). Requires a 6.6% swing to the Labour. Jacqui Smiths seat until public issues and the anti-incumbency vote did for her in 2010. TORY

15. Rugby. Mark Pawsey (Con). Requires a 6.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

16. Shrewsbury. Daniel Kawczynski (Con). Requires a 7.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

17. North Shropshire. Owen Paterson (Con). Requires a 15.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

18. Stafford. Jeremy Lefroy (Con). Requires a 5.9% swing to the Labour. TORY

19. Staffordshire moorlands. Karen Bradley (Con). Requires a 7.6% swing to the Labour. TORY

20. South Staffordshire. Gavin Williamson (Con). Requires a 16.4% swing to the Labour. TORY

21. Stone. Bill Cash (Con). Requies a 14.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

22. Stourbridge. Margot James (Con). Requires a 5.9% swing to the Labour. TORY

23. Stratford on avon. Nadhim Zahawi (Con). Requires a 11.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

24. Sutton Coldfield. Andrew Mitchell (Con). Requires a 16.8% swing to the Labour. TORY

25. Tamowrth. Christoper Pincher (Con). Requires a 6.5% swing to the labour. TORY

26. Warwick and leamington. Chris White (Con). Requies a 3.6% swing to the Labour. Tories holding on in polls. TORY

27. North Warwickshire. Dan Byles (Con). Requires a 0.05% swing to Labour, or 27 votes. UKIP/Tory split might let Labour in the middle. Labour 11 ahead in the polls. LABOUR

28. Wolverhampton south west. Paup Uppal (Con). Requires a 0.8% swing to the Labour. Labour 16 ahead in the polls, and consistenly doing well in locals since 2010. LABOUR

29. Worcester. Robin Walker (Con). Requires a 3.1% swing to the Labour. LABOUR were ahead in the polls but 2015 ones suggest swing back to the Tory incumbent. TORY

30. Mid worcesrershire. Peter Luff (Con) (retiring). Requires a 15.5% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

31. West Worcestershire. Harriet Baldwin (Con). Requires a 6.3% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

32. The Wrekin. Mark Pritchard (Con). Requires a 10.3% swing to the Labour. TORY

33. Wyre forest. Mark Garnier (Con). Requires a 2.6% swing to Dr Richard Taylor, Independent. What was once a Health Concern is now turning into a Tory/UKIP fight . TORY

34. Birmingham Edgbaston. Gisela Stuart (Lab). Requires a 1.5% swing to the Tories. Gisela produced a Houdini Act in 2010, looking in danger all night until she sneaked it home. Polling has her crushing the Lib Dem vote this time out. Good, irrespective of parties, she’s one of the better parliamentarians. LABOUR

35. Birmingham Erdington. Jack Dromey (Lab). Requires a 4.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

36. Birmingham hall green. Roger Godsiff (Lab). Requires a 3.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

37. Birmingham lodge hill. Liam Byrne (Lab). Requires a 12.2% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

38. Birmingham Ladywood. Shabana Mahmood (Lab). Requires a 14.1% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

39. Birmingham northfield. Richard Burden (Lab). Requires a 3.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

40. Birmingham perry bar. Khalid Mahmood (Lab). Requires a 14.1% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

41. Birmingham selly oak. Stephen McCabe (Lab). Requires a 3.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

42. Coventry north east. Bob Ainsworth (Lab). Requires a 13.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

43. Coventry North West. Geoffrey Robinson (Lab). Requires a 6.7% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

44. Coventry South. Jim Cunningham (Lab). Requires a 4.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

45. Dudley North. Ian Austin (Lab). Requires 0.85% swing to the Tories. Massive fight between Labour and UKIP. Tory chances harmed by their PPC having to resign for a bizarre piece of plotting. LABOUR.

46. Newcastle Under Lyme. Paul Farrelly (Lab). Requires a 1.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

47. Stoke on Trent Central. Tristram Hunt (Lab). Requires a 8.5% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

48. Stoke on Trent North. Joan Walley (Lab). Requires a 10.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

49. Stoke on Trent South. Robert Flello (Lab). Requires a 5.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

50. Telford. David Wright (Lab). Requires a 1.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

51. Walsall north. David Winnick (Lab). Requires a 1.3% swing to the Tories. Labour leading in the polls. LABOUR

52. Walsall south. Valerie Vaz (Lab). Requires a 2.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

53. Warley. John Spellar (Lab). Requires a 14.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

54. West Bromwich east. Tom Watson (Lab). Requires a 8.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

55. West Bromwich west. Adrian Burley (Lab). Requires a 7.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

56. Wolverhampton north east. Emma Reynolds (Lab). Requires a 3.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

57. Wolverhampton south east. Pat McFadden (Lab). Requires a 9.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR.



YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER



1. Beverley and Holderness. Graham Stuart (Con). Requires a 12.2% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

2. Brigg and Goole. Andrew Percy (Con). Requires a 5.8% swing to the Labour. TORY

3. Calder valley. Craig Whittaker (Con). Requires a 6.2% swing to the Labour. TORY

4. Cleethorpes Martin Vickers (Con). Requires a 4.8% swing to the Labour. TORY

5. Colne valley. Jason Mccartney (Con). Requires a 4.3% swing to the Lib Dems. Labour narrowly in lead in polls. LABOUR

6. Dewsbury. Simon Reevell (Con). Requires a 1.4% swing to the Labour. Labour ahead by 10 in polls. LABOUR

7. Elmet and rothwell. Alec Shelbrooke (Con). Requires a 4.1% swing to the Labour. Tories ahead in polls. TORY

8. Haltemprice and howden. David Davis (Con). Requires a 11.9% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

9. Harrowgate and Knaresborough. Andrew Jones (Con). Requires a 1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

10. Keighley. Kris Hopkins (Con). Requires a 3.1% swing to the Labour. UKIP biting in the Tory vote considerably in polling, Labour ahead. LABOUR

11. Pudsey – Stuart Andrew (Con). Requires a 1.7% swing to the Labour. Too close to call. TORY

12. Richmond yorks. William Hague (Con) (Retiring). Requires a 21.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

13. Scarborough and Whitby. Robert Goodwill (Con). Requires a 8.2% swing to the Labour. TORY

14. Selby and ainsty. Nigel Adams (Con). Requires a 11.8% swing to the Labour. TORY

15. Shipley. Philip Davies (Con). Requires a 10.1% swing to the Labour. TORY

16. Skipton and ripon. Julian Smith (Con). Requires a 9.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

17. Thirsk and malton. AnneMcIntosh (Con). Requires a 14.8% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

18. York outer. Julian Sturdy (Con). Requires a 3.5% to the Lib Dems. TORY.

19. East Yorkshire. Greg Knight (Con). Requires a 13.1% swing to the Lib Dems. TORY

20. Barnsey central. Dan Jarvis (Lab). Requires a 15% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

21. Barnsley east. Michael Dugher (Lab). Requires a 14.4% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

22. Batley and spen. Mike Wood (Lab). Requires a 4.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

23. Bradford south. Gerry Sutcliffe (Lab (retiring). Requires a 6.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

24. Bradford west. George Galloway (Respect). LABOUR

25. Don valley. Caroline Flint (Lab). Requires a 4.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

26. Doncaster central. Rosie Winterton (Lab). Requires a 7.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

27. Doncasrer north. Ed Miliband (Lab). Requires a 13.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

28. Great Grimsby. Austin Mitchell (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 1.1% swing to the Tories. Labour lead by 1 point over UKIP in the polls. LABOUR

29. Halifax Linda Riordan (Lab). (retiring) Requires a 1.7% swing to the Tories. MP unhappy about selection process for new Labour PPC. Respect running, rumours they’ll split the left vote enough for the Tories – surely not. There will be a UKIP presence in that part of the world that should offset any loss for Labour. LABOUR

30. Hemsworth.. Jon Trickett (Lab). Requires a 11.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

31. Huddersfield. Barry Sheerman (Lab) Requires a 5.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

32. Kingston upon hill east. Karl Turner (Lab). Requires 12.6% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

33. Kingston upon hull north. Diana Johnson (Lab). Requires a 0.9% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

34. Kingston upon hull west. Alan Johnson (Lab). Requires a 9.1% swing to the Lib dems. LABOUR

35. Leeds central. Hilary Benn (Lab). Requires a 14.2% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

36. Leeds east. George Mudie (Lab). Requires a 13.6% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

37. Leeds north east. Fabian Hamilton (Lab). Requires a 4.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

38. Leeds west. Rachel Reeves (Lab). Requires a 9.1% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

39. Morley and outwood. Ed Balls (Lab). Requires a 1.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

40. Normanton, pontrefact and Castleford. Yvette Cooper (Lab). Requires a 11.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

41. Penistone and stocksbridge. Angela Smith (Lab). Requires a 3.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

42. Rother valley. Kevin Barron (Lab). Requires a 6.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

43. Rotherham. Sarah Champion (Lab). Requires a 13.9% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

44. Scunthorpe. Nicholas Dakin (Lab). Requires a 3.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

45. Sheffield Brightside. David BLunkett (Lab) (retiring). Requires a 17.5% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

46. Sheffiled central. Paul BLomfield (Lab). Requires a 0.2% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

47. Sheffield heeley. Meg Munn (Lab). Requires a 7.1% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

48. Sheffield south east. Clive Betts (Lab). Requires a 12.2% swing to the Lib Dems. LABOUR

49. Wakefield. Mary Creagh (Lab). Requires a 1.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

50. Wentworth and dearne. John Healey (Lab). Requires a 16.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR

51. York central. Hugh Bayley (Lab). Requires a 6.9% swing to the Tories.LABOUR




UKIP



While they might get 16% of the national vote (though really, recent evidence has that been squeezed by the big 2 as we get closer to the election), its the spread too far out among the country. The same issue the Liberals had in the 1970s, if you will.

 They'll likely hold Clacton (Carswell), they might hold Rochester and Strood (Reckless) on a good night, and should win South Thanet (Farage). Elsewhere, I'm thinking they'll take Thurrock (they lead decently in the polls) and I had them as potentials in Folkestone though their recent issues there might be fatal. Otherwise, theres about half a dozen seats which are outright in play for them, margin of error, heavily targeted territory. If all goes well for them, they'd pick up 6-9 seats.

Now, there is the suggestion that they realised this a year ago, and have been using the widespread shambolic presentation to disguise some clever targeting. Aylesbury, for example, flashes up under the radar as a possible UKIP gain. Heywood, Rotherham and Dagenham seem to have UKIP pools too. Another hard to predict thing.


LABOUR



The key thing to note is that IF the SNP surge is all the seats in Scotland, Labour would still be the largest party. If the SNP surge is a complete dead end, then they'd be in reach of a majority. Which takes me to a hidden point. 

If the SNP/Labour vote has swung, and the UK polls are still level, then not only has there been a 4-5% swing from Tory to Labour in the UK, but there has to have been a bigger swing in parts of England to make up the deficit. There is the chance we have a Labour majority hidden in front of us, disguised by this SNP surge. 


The table (gains based on last election) as it stands though:

Labour                  303 (+45)
Conservative        262  (-44)
Lib Dems               28  (-29)
SNP                        28 (+22)
UKIP                        5  (+5)
Plaid Cymru             4  (+1)
Greens                      1
Speaker                    1



Or, to quote Sherlock in the Sign of Four: "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" All the evidence suggests, that Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister in five weeks.