Well, it’s the World Cup soon, and
we have heard lots from the experts. So I thought, why not hear from a bumbling
amateur who knows sod all? After all, as Richard Todd’s character probably didn’t
say in Kinda, the wise man knows how little he knows. And I know very little
about Saudi Arabia. Right, there’s my Alan Shearer confession up front.
The World Cup is home to some of the
greatest players involved in high end dramatic or quality matches. It was also
home to Switzerland vs Ukraine, a last sixteen game in 2006 the forced watching
of which is the second crime noted on the Geneva Convention.
Players long for
the few weeks every four summers that will define their career, for good or
bad.
Josimar and Toto Schillaci are still remembered by football fans across
the world, despite their careers being lumped into One Impressive World Cup and
sod all else. Meanwhile, dependable stalwarts like David Seaman are forever
linked to one Ronaldinho goal in the summer of 2002. As for the current crop,
just look at the asterix some try to place on Lionel Messi’s career, because as
great as he has been, he has not done a Maradona and won the World Cup with
Argentina. Does this make George Best (never qualified), Alfredo di Stefano
(never played in a World Cup) or Johan Cruyff (lost a final) lesser players
also? I think not. Strangely this only seems to apply to forwards. Toni Kroos,
Germany and Real Madrid’s deep lying playmaker in midfield, has won one World
Cup and four European Cups, yet no journalist is rushing to declare him as one
of the GOAT.
The point being, the World Cup
shouldn’t determine someone’s greatness alone. But often it does. It’s why we’re
here.
And there are a lot of folk who want
to see Lionel Messi win the big one this summer.
Including, admittedly, myself.
Mostly to see the look on Ronaldo’s face.
Both represent talented sides with
flaws in their side. The difference being that Messi tries to drag an
uncommitted side along, and Ronaldo is the flaw in his side.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
The 2018 World Cup will be held in
Russia. This is controversial, given the countries links to insular racism, an authoritarian
leader with little threat to their position, and sections of their press being
little more than propaganda outlet for right wing concerns. Indeed, as the
Brexiteers, Theresa May and the Daily Express agreed, FIFA should have chosen a
more friendly nation like England. Or indeed, a more English nation, like
England. Snipes aside, yes, there are legitimate concerns about Russia hosting –
the hooligan element at Euro 2016 for one sets a worrying trailer, and there is
the worry that a country with such notoriously bad infrastructure could cope
with a large tournament - but…. You have to consider also that there has been legitimate
concerns about nearly every single World Cup host (bribery, human rights, being
a dictatorship that killed thousands of people, to pick a few over the years)
and so if the idea of Russia as hosts is flawed, it fits in with a long
tradition of flawed hosts. (And really, this fits, as their current team is
really very bloody flawed!) Football is invariably used by the tyrants for
their own means. Even the sensational Brazil 1970 side were seen as a PR tool
by dodgy types.
So, as at the end of the day it’s a
distraction, if Putin and Trump would like to hold off on blowing up the world
until we find out if Germany can become repeat champions, I’d be ever so
grateful.
We have some notable omissions. The
Big 3 of Europe – Italy, Netherlands, Scotland – are missing. The United States
buggered up qualifying in spectacular fashion. Chile won 2 Copa Americas in a
row, but miss the World Cup. I blame Arsenal, myself. Cote D’ivoire, Ghana,
Algeria and Cameroon miss the World Cup after 2-3 appearances in a row,
replaced by younger African sides. Despite having Bale, Wales missed Bale for a
few crucial qualifiers due to injury, and thus miss the World Cup. Estonia are
also missing from the World Cup, an event which saddens one person reading
this, but at least Gavin has Denmark to root for. Hell, it looks like I have
Denmark to root for!
Right, enough preamble, let’s hope it’s a good Cup with worthy winners. And now, onto Group A!
Group A
(Russia, Egypt, Uruguay,
Saudi Arabia)
How they got there – Russia
qualified automatically as hosts, which given their results over the last few
years, is just as well for them. They’ve been able to arrange friendlies to get
their squad into shape, which have resulted in no wins in the last six games.
In fact, they have 5 wins and 9 losses (including one to future worst World Cup
hosts ever, Qatar) in the 19 games they’ve played since their Welsh debacle at
Euro 2016. They hosted the Confederations Cup last summer, and while they beat
New Zealand, they lost to Portugal and Mexico and crashed out in the group
stages. They’ve also lost several defenders to injuries – key among them Georgi
Dzhikiya of Spartak Moscow.
Uruguay finished second in South
American qualification. They went 4 games without a win between November 2016
and September 2017, and still finished on 31 points, which shows how relatively
comfortable it was. One standout result was a 2-2 achieved in Brazil, early in
the campaign.
Egypt’s World Cup campaign started
in the Stade Idris Mahamat Ouya N’Djamena where they lost in November 2015 to
Chad. It was a game without their talisman Mohamed Salah. This was however a
two legged playoff, and a 1-0 lead was never enough for the minnows, who went
to Alexandria and found themselves 4-0 down in 40 minutes though Elneny, Said
and a Mahgoub double. So Egypt qualified for the group stage, but found
themselves in a tough group. Not only were Ghana, one of the stars of African
football in the last decade, present, but also the underrated Congo, and the
swiftly improving Uganda. Only one could qualify. It was in the group stage
that Mo Salah shone. Away to Congo, he nabbed an important equaliser, and Egypt
went on to win. He got the opener in a crucial win over Ghana, and the only
goal in an equally crucial win over Uganda (1-0, after a reverse in Kampala).
With Ghana unable to score in 2 games against the Ugandans, Egypt knew a win at
home against Congo would be enough for their first World Cup in 28 years. They
were made to wait, however, until the 94th minute, when, at 1-1, a
penalty was awarded. Salah stood up and calmly fired the ball home, and the
crowd went bonkers.
Saudi Arabia went undefeated in
their first group stage against the heavyweights of the UAE, Palestine,
Malaysia and Timor-Leste. (Poor Timor-Leste went 8 losses from 8 and 44 goals
conceded to none scored, btw, the result not helped by forfeiting 5 straight
games due to ineligible players!) Sure, the Saudis got 2 forfeit wins, but they
were leading in those games anyhow, and in the crunch they picked up 4 points off
Palestine and the UAE each. In the final group stage, they got 15 of 18 points
off the bottom three in their group – Thailand, Iraq and the aforementioned
UAE. This meant a home draw against Australia and a win over an already
qualified Japan took Saudi Arabia to their first World Cup since 2006.
Who have they got
Russia have a decent potential spine
from midfield with the Miranchuks, Villarreal’s Cheryshev, Golovin and Jon
Arnold’s favourite Dzagoev in the squad. Up front, there’s still Dzyuba, same
as at Euro 2016 but older. Defence is an obvious weak spot with injuries, age
and quality diluting the options. Rman Neustadter and Mario Fernandes’s
naturalisation process an attempt to fix glaring holes in the team. Sergei
Ignashevich is still in the squad, thanks to others injuries. In goal, Akinfeev
is slightly past his prime, prone to a howler, and infamous for a long streak
of no clean sheets in the Champions League. They are better on paper than South
Africa, but that’s not saying much.
I know very little about Saudi
Arabia. Maybe they’ll surprise. Al-Sahlawi has 28 goals in 38 caps, which is a
good record at any level, and Al-Muwallad not only has 43 caps from midfield
before the age of 24, but also actually played during a loan spell at Levante.
Egypt’s star is undoubtedly Salah,
and hopefully he makes it after Ramos-Gate. Elsewhere, I am keen to see Amr
Warda after rave reviews in Greece, and the likes of Hegazi and Elneny are well
known to Premier League viewers. Meanwhile, Trezeguet in midfield looks of
interest. Reliant on Salah, yes, but there is a spine of hard working talents
alongside him.
Uruguay’s young players look very
exciting. Lucas Torreira was getting rave reviews at Sampdoria, as a player of
considerable technical skill but one not afraid to have a bit of Uruguayan
steel to him. Betancur at 20 is already a regular in the Juventus team, Laxalt
is playing well for Genoa, and Matias Vecino scored the goal that took Inter
back into the Champions League. Another youngster, Maxi Gomez, is looking
promising after 17 league goals for Celta Vigo in La Liga (and indeed, 3 of the
top 7 scorers in La Liga this season are Uruguayans). Even Mr 5 goals in 40
international caps, Cristhian Stuani, has scored 21 goals this season in La
Liga for Girona, nearly a career best, and a lifetime away from his stint at
Middlesbrough. In defence they have some familiar faces – Godin and Giminez of Atletico Madrid, Porto’s Maxi
Pereira, Lazio’s Caceres – who might be getting older in 3 of the 4 cases
(Giminez is 23) but they remain quality players. Oh, and they have Luis Suarez
too. Nah, never heard of him…
World Cup history: Russia have one
win at the World Cup this century. It was against Tunisia in 2002. Since then,
they’ve lost to Japan, Belgium, and Belgium again, with draws against Algeria
and South Korea and failure to qualify for the World Cup in 2006 and 2010. The
last time they got out of the group stages of the World Cup was in 1986 as the
USSR, and that was a team made up full of Dinamo Kiev players and managed by
the great Valeriy Lobanovskyi. They certainly don’t have a manager of his
quality anywhere in Russia today, but then, few (if any) countries in Europe
do. Perhaps this solves the riddle of why Putin keeps seemingly trying to
reform the USSR? He wants to get those Ukrainians to save the Russian football
team again!
Egypt appeared briefly in 1934, and
then again, briefly, in 1990. Despite being one of the finest international
sides around (they have a Nations Cup record to die for, and are a formidable tournament
and friendlies side), this is only their 3rd World Cup tournament.
Uruguay have won the World Cup
twice, and made the Semifinals five times. Given their population (abut 3.2
million nowadays), they do sort of put the rest of the world’s World Cup record
to shame, really.
The Saudis last appeared in 2006,
but will be hoping to emulate 1994 when they made the last sixteen, and not
2002, when they lost 8-0 to Germany.
Favourite world cup moments per team
Uruguay’s game with Ghana was
already a classic even before Suarez handled on the line. (2 World Cups in a
row Luis has been a talking point, what does he have up his sleeve for us to
chew over this time?) Saudi Arabia’s 2nd goal v Tunisia in 2006
brought mass celebrations from their team. Egypt and Russia lack favourite
World Cup moment due to lack of options.
Managers
Oscar Tabarez has been in charge of
Uruguay since their failure to make the 2006 World Cup. Here he guides Uruguay
to their 3rd World Cup in a row, and has ushered in a young crop of
new players for his successor. Yes, sadly Tabarez is retiring after this World
Cup, now aged 71 and suffering from Guillain-Barre syndrome (hence the
appearance of a crutch). This is Tabarez’s 4th World Cup with
Uruguay, having also qualified them in 1990. In all 3 tournaments to date, he
has taken Uruguay out of the group stage. Uruguay also won the Copa America
under him in 2011.
Hector Cuper used to be called the
nearly man of European football. He took Valencia to two consecutive Champions
League finals, and Inter to a semifinal only to lose on the away goals, as well
as losing the Serie A title in 2002 on the last day. A goal here or there the
other way from a very fine CV, as World Soccer bemoaned in 2003. His achievement
in taking Egypt to their first World Cup in 28 years surely gives him a far
better legacy. And while it was popular to sneer fifteen years ago at his
“nearly” success remind me – how close have Valencia got to the European Cup
final since the Hector Cuper era? Exactly.
Juan Antonio Pizzi failed to qualify
Chile for the World Cup, and so his reward is to go to the Cup as manager of
Saudi Arabia, their third maanger since qualifying! As manager, he won the Copa
America in 2016.
Stanislav Cherchesov was named
Russian manager after the Euro 2016 debacle, having previously seen Legia
Warsaw win the Polish league, and has now been handed a mission impossible
task.
Crux of the group: World Cups group
stages tend to let the cream rise to the top, so if we take out the likely
bottom side, then Uruguay should top the group. This leaves the hosts and the
Egyptians. Crux game on Match Day 2 there. If Salah makes the World Cup, then I
give the edge to Egypt. If he doesn’t, host advantage ought to see Russia
through. I hope Salah does make the World Cup though. Him missing the
tournament – facing 2-3 weeks out at time of writing with a shoulder injury
from the Champions League final – woud be a tragedy for world football in my
book.
The result: If Uruguay can gell their
new generation into the team with the verve and promise suggested in the latter
qualifiers, then we could be looking at one of the most exciting teams at the
tournament. I will stick with them to top the group, Egypt to qualify in 2nd,
and Russia to emulate South Africa and be the second hosts to exit at the first
stage possible.
And hey, remember, Russia v Saudi
Arabia cannot be as bad as Switzrland v Ukraine, for there can be no extra
time. Zen!
Group B
(Spain, Portugal, Morocco,
Iran)
How they got there –
Spain comfortably beat the lesser
names in their group – Albania, Israel, Macedonia and Liechtenstein – before
smashing rivals Italy 3-0 at home to finish with 28 points from a possible 30.
Never looked troubled.
Portugal lost their opening
qualifier in Switzerland, which meant, given the weak nature of their group (no
offence to Euro 2016 surprise package Hungary, Latvia, Andorra or the Faroe
Islands here), that Portugal would have to run the gauntlet and win every
single match left. Which they did, finishing with 27 points out of 30. Ronaldo
scored 15 goals for them, and yet wasn’t Europe’s top scorer.
Morocco squeezed past Equatorial
Guinea 2-1 in a playoff, but it was in the group stage they blossomed. Against
Mali and Gabon (both tricky opponents, and Gabon have Aubameyang), and the
fearsome Cote D’Ivoire, Morocco didn’t concede a single goal. They smashed Mali
6-0 at home, Gabon 3-0, and in their final gam, they went to Abidjan and beat
the Cote D’Ivoire 2-0. Impressive.
Iran were undefeated in all 18 of
their world cup qualifiers, winning 14 of them, and conceding 5 goals. Even by
Asian qualifying standards, it was impressive. Their 1-0 win in Uzbekistan
being the best, but not conceding against South Korea home or away their stand
out result.
Who have they got
Morocco have Hakim Ziyech, who so
skilfully helped lead Ajax to the Europa League final in 2017. In defence, they
have Medhi Benatia, formerly of Bayern Munich and now of Juventus. Players from
Ligue 1 and the Turkish Super League also marshal the formidable defence. They
also have, competing for the right back spot, Achraf Hakimi, a 19 year old
teenager who has already broken into the Real Madrid first team: no small feat!
There’s also the well travelled Amrabat, sometimes of Watford. No place for
mercurial Sofiane Boufal, however, undone by a terrible season for Southampton.
Sardar Azmoun of Iran is a fine
striker (23 goals in 32 caps!) though he has been off the boil this season. The
Eredivisie pair of Jahanbakhsh and Ghoochannejhad seem to be the likely fulcrum
for any goals. Dejegah, once of newly re-promoted Fulham, is important in
midfield. Meanwhile, Masoud Shojaei could become the first Iranian player to
play in three World Cups. Not even the legitimately great Mahdavikia achieved
that. Although, unlike Mehdi, Shojaei’s activism has not successfully banned
him for life from the national team. A player already willing to call out his
own President publicly over the female stadium ban, and a supporter of the
Persian Spring to boot, he was originally banned for life from playing for Iran
last Summer, after ignoring an order to refuse to play for his club team,
Panionios, in a Europa League tie in Israel.
Such was the public outrage in Iran over the ban, the Iranian FA had to
U-turn on it. And the media here thinks John Terry is brave for heading the
ball.
When he’s not playing for Milan,
Andre Silva look a fine striker indeed. Adrien Silva waited a long time to kick
a ball for Leicester thanks to bureaucrats, and then slipped into the team
easily. William Carvalho of Sporting CP is surely off elsewhere after the Cup,
but the question is where. The question is in defence, where Pepe remains,
Cedric had a bad season, and for some reason Bruno Alves remains in the team,
despite having a torrid season for Rangers. If you can’t handle Ross County,
lord knows how he plans to deal with Spain. Another question is the issues
around Sporting CP, their President and players, and a recent assault on the
players by ultras on their own training ground. This includes the Portuguese
number one goalkeeper, Rui Patricio. Will they be mentally on, after being both
mentally and physically attacked this season? Oh, and there’s that Ronaldo guy.
I guess he’s quite decent at putting the ball in the net, although his World
Cup tally of 3 goals in 14 matches is dire.
Also, Ricardo Quaresma might be an
insanely aggravating player. On form, utterly unplayable in his peak. Off form,
worse than a passenger, and with a mentality that was head scratching at times,
for example, his walking out of Barcelona aged 20. However, due to maturity
issues, luck and managerial whims, at 34, this will be his first World Cup. I
am glad to see a player of his undoubted talents make the Cup, even if he ought
to have done it earlier, if only he’d marshalled his career better.
As for Spain, once you look past the
first team – all football geniuses - of
de Gea, Ramos, Pique, Alba, Carvajal (injury issues notwithstanding), Iniesta,
Thiago, Isco, Koke, Asensio and Diego Costa, what have you actually got? Apart
from Cesar and Nacho, of course. Or the sublime Busquets. Or evergreen David
Silva. Or the wonderful Saul Niguez. I mean, apart from the odd 17 or 18
potentially world class players (or confirmed ones), what do Spain have?
Exactly.
World Cup history: Spain won the
World Cup in 2010. Portugal were Semifinalists in 1966 and 2006, and are a
fairly consistent team, even if the Euro 2016 winners did actually go out in
the group stage of the last World Cup. Hell, so did Spain. Any chance of a
repeat, asks this fan of the underdog? Morocco thumped Scotland in 1998. Iran
drew Scotland in 1978, but also beat the United States in 1998, and came within
injury time of a fantastic draw against Argentina last time out. Then Messi
happened.
Favourite world cup moments per team:
Torres goal v Ukraine in 2006, sublime team work. The Portugal/Netherlands 2006
match, a wonderful piece of violent theatre.
Iran’s 3-1 defeat to Mexico, also at the 2006 cup, was a good game too.
Managers
At Porto, it was claimed that Julen
Lopetegui focused solely on the Spanish players and ignored all else. Luckily,
what might be considered a terminal bias at most clubs is actually a massive
positive when you are the manager of the Spanish national team. The Porto spell
was sandwiched by his return to the Spanish job, after a 4 year spell in charge
of Spanish youth football.
After taking Greece to within a
penalty shootout of the World Cup quarterfinals, and Portugal to the European
Championship, it should be clear that Fernando Santos is a miracle worker who
could probably walk on water if he put his mind to it. He is also well regarded
for having integrated so many promising U21 players into the squad since 2014 (ie
Guerreiro) or finding a way to bring new life to old players (ie Quaresma). Before
this, he took PAOK into the Champions League qualifiers, and had spells as
manager of all of the Portuguese Big Three. With his sides known for doing well
in Europe, and 3 cups and an international title on his CV, he is a cup
specialist. Be wary of Portugal. They might go far.
Carlos Quieroz has been in charge
of Iran since 2011, allowing for a
continuity and player development hitherto unheard of in the AFC. His side
performed well at the 2014 World Cup, though were short on goals. Previously he
had a short stint as the Real Madrid boss, an unhappy stint as Portugal
manager, and was allegedly de facto in charge of Manchester United during his 4
year spell as assistant manager from 2004 to 2008.
Herve Renard has taken Morocco to
their first World Cup in 20 years, after taking Zambia to the Nations Cup title
in 2012, and then Cote D’ivoire to the same in 2015.
Crux of the group
Morocco are the crux. Can they get
anything off Spain or Portugal? If they can do that and beat Iran, they might
upset the apple cart here.
The result
Iran sadly don’t have the fire power
to fully challenge, although perhaps they can cause the big upset they
threatened last time and settle the group for others. Morocco are the tough
beast to master, but are in the toughest of groups. I think Portugal will win
this group, and if there is to be a scalp, Spain (whose manager I do not fully
trust) are likely to be the victims. However, conservatively, I think Morocco
will win hearts, but Spain will win 2nd place.
Group C
(France, Denmark, Peru,
Australia)
How they got there –
France won their qualifying group
with relative ease, despite a brief scare in Sweden, which helped Deschamps
dispose of many of his Euro 2016 side. 4-0 v the Netherlands didn’t flatter the
French.
Denmark started slow with 2 wins in
their first 5 games. They revved into form at the right time, however, smashing
Poland 4-0 in September 2017 followed up by a massive 4-1 win away to tricky
Armenia 3 days later, Thomas Delaney playing brilliantly in both games. The
confidence boost from that, as well as the feeling the manager had hit on a
formation which best suited his talented players, carried Denmark on from that,
qualifying for the playoffs and smashing the Republic of Ireland 5-1 in Dublin
to qualify.
Peru finished 5th in
South America, ahead of Chile on goal difference, and then saw off New Zealand
in a playoff.
Australia’s torturous route to the
World Cup started in the Kyrgyz Repubic. Despite a 2-0 defeat in Jordan, they
qualified without too much difficulty, winning home and away against Bangladesh,
Tajikistan and the aforementioned Kyrgyzstanis. Into the second group stage,
and that one single loss – away to Japan – meant they had to settle for the
playoffs. Into the first playoff, and Syria took them to extra time before Tim
Cahill broke Syrian hearts in the 109th minute of the second leg.
This brought about another playoff against Honduras, won by a Jedinak hattrick.
And so Australia travelled from Bangladesh to Central America, over the course
of 22 qualifying matches, just to make it here. Their manager resigned a few
days later. Some questioned his tactics. I suspect he’s still recovering from
all that jetlag!
Who have they got
On paper, France have an insanely
talented group, from Mbappe and Greizmann to Varane and Kante. Making a team out
of them, however…
Daniel Arzani is the Australian
wonderkid making waves down under, so watch out for him. Tom Rogic of Celtic is
a good player, as is Huddersfield’s Mooy. At the back Josh Risdon is getting a
lot of press.
Peru’s own Paddington Bear is captain
Paulo Guerrero, he of the cocaine tea drug ban, who has been in and out and in
out and shaking it all about thanks to appeal and counter appeal to his drugs
ban, so that by the time the World Cup starts, he might have been back out and
in again 10 more times. If he plays,
they have hope, providing hes not rusty… Elsewhere there is Jefferson Farfan,
still playing, and Renato Tapia of Feyenoord.
Christian Eriksen is the stand out
for Denmark but there is a lot of talent in this squad. Christensen and Jorgensen
have looked good at Chelsea and Huddersfield respectively, and Sisto and Schone
good midfield compliments to the Spurs man. Poulsen of Leipzig is their best
forward – despite Nicklas Bendtner claims – and if he makes it, Kasper Dolberg
has all the potential in the world. He looked great during Ajax’s Europa League
final run, but struggled last season. Kasper Schmeichel of Leicester is the
undisputed goalkeeper. A strong shell, they ought to be difficult opponents.
World Cup history: Australia made it
to the last 16 in 2006, and tend to give it a go. Peru got to the second round
in 1978, where they lost 6-0 to Argentina in a match that certainly hasn’t been
remembered for controversy 40 years on. The Danes tend to leave the World Cup
party far too early, though they got to the last 16 in 2002 and 1986, and a
memorable Quarterfinal in 1998 vs Brazil. France won the trophy in 1998, came
close in 1958 and 1982-6, and famously exploded in 2002 and 2010. Bit Jekyll
and Hyde.
Favourite world cup moments per team:
The mental 2-2 with Croatia that saw Australia qualify for the knockouts in
2006, complete with Graham Poll giving 3 yellow cards to the one player.
Denmark’s ruthless elimination of France in 2002... wait a minute! France
played some fine football for about 2 and a half games in 2014. (I am too kind
not to mention their self-destruction against South Africa and Mexico as a
favourite moment…) Peru last qualified for the World Cup 4 years before I was
born, so I don’t have memories of them yet.
Managers
Ricardo Gareca has taken Peru to
their first World Cup in 36 years. He also took them to the 2015 Copa America
Semifinals.
Bert Van Marwijk only just took over
as Australian manager, but he is already a well-known figure, after taking the
Netherlands to the 2010 World Cup final. He qualified Saudi Arabia for this
World Cup, but was fired for doing so! He won the UEFA Cup with Feyenoord in 2002,
and later managed the team he beat in the final, Dortmund. Now aged 66, he is
on a short-term contract, and will step down after the World Cup.
Age Hariede was previously in charge
of Norway and Rosenborg, and has won the Swedish, Norwegian, and Danish league
titles.
Didier Deschamps won the World Cup
as a player in 1998. In 2003 he took Monaco to the European Cup final, in 2007
he led Juventus back to Serie A after their bribery scandal relegation, and in
2010 he won the French league title with Marseille. Despite this, and the Euro
2016 final, there remains a question mark about his ability to manage at the
big occasion. As for player feuds, one might uncharitably claim that to fall
out with one player is unfortunate, but to fall out with 3 or 4 is a bit
careless…
Crux of the group
If we consider Denmark as in or out
prior to the France game, then Peru v Australia could be crucial.
The result
France ought to win this group. When
the pressure is off, they are very good. I don’t see much quality in the Peru
side, who have over performed to get this far. Australia went from outsiders to
potential dark horses with their managerial choice, and today thumped the Czechs
4-0 in a warm up. Really, Danish talent should be enough for 2nd and
a really fun tie with Argentina, but their tournament reluctance, and Australia
never say die spirit, makes this another tough one. In fact, much to my
surprise, with my head 50/50, my gut is leaning towards the Australians. A nice
“can’t call it in advance” group is always fun, though.
Group D
(Argentina, Croatia,
Iceland, Nigeria)
How they got there –
Argentina snuck over the line, with
1 win in their final 5. Incredibly, they found themselves in a position where
if they lost to Ecuador in their final game, they would be out of the World
Cup. And they went behind. However, the tables had turned in Argentina. Where
once Lionel Messi was seen as the outsider who didn’t play his Barcelona best
for his homeland, now he was Argentina’s one never yielding talent. A brief
international retirement was never going to last, and it was Messi’s hattrick
in the Ecuador game that dragged Argentina to the World Cup.
Iceland topped a World Cup group
with Croatia, Kosovo, Finland, Turkey and Ukraine. You can’t say its not a well
deserved qualification. After a near miss in 2014 qualifying – losing a playoff
to Croatia of all teams – and a fantastic Euro 2016, perhaps there’s room for a
suitable sequel in Russia. Also, by beating Ukraine, they removed any fear of
Switzerland v Ukraine Part 2.
Croatia did their level best to try
and fail to qualify for the World Cup, including losing in Turkey and Iceland,
drawing at home to Finland and struggling to break down Kosovo at home. (The embarrassment-sparing
goal in that match came from Vida on 74 minutes.) Ante Cacic, their
underwhelming Euro 2016 manager, was sent his marching orders with 1 game left.
Then they snuck into the playoffs and beat Greece. A team of all the talents,
but none of the team?
Nigeria beat Swaziland in a playoff
2-0, before trouncing the so-called Group of Death. Cameroon might be the Kings
of African; Zambia might be the best non-European side yet to qualify for a
World Cup; and Algeria might have dazzled the World at the last Cup with some
fine displays, but none of them were a match for Nigeria, who qualified by a 5
point margin, despite losing one match by default for playing an illegible
player! The highlight was a 4-0 smashing
of Cameroon, with Ighalo, Mikel, Moses and Iheanacho on the score sheet. As Nigeria
got to the knockout stage last time
round, and Cameroon were an embarrassment….
Who have they got
It feels strange to talk about
Argentina as a one-man team given their team on paper, but you need to lok
beyond the names. When it comes to goals, Aguero is coming back from injury,
Higuain is woefully out of form, Dybala clashes with Messi on the pitch, and
Icardi is Sir Not Appearing in This World Cup.
The crux of the team from Euro 2016
are there for Iceland, minus the injured Sigthorsson, but Gunnarsson and
Sigurdsson are as usual important in midfield. Finnbogason will be important up
frnt.
Modric and Rakitic are well known,
and Mandzukic a good striker (though better at club level). Kalinic never a
player to impress me much so imagine my surprise to remember he’s at Milan,
where he wasn’t brilliant. Brozovic, who helped Inter qualify for the Champions
League, has been heavily influential in recent months, and there is hope for a
big tournament for Croatia, apparently. Rebic just helped Frankfurt win the
German Cup.
Nigeria have the usual suspects –
Mikel, Moses, Musa – as well as Ighalo, Iwobi and Iheanacho.
World Cup history: Nigeria made it
to the last sixteen in 2014, while managed by the sadly departed Stephen Keshi.
Iceland are making their debut. Croatia were 3rd in 1998, and
haven’t qualified from the group stage since. Argentina won the trophy in 1978
and 1986 and deeply desire a third.
Favourite world cup moments per team:
The 36 pass goal. Musa’s goal v Argentina. Croatia’s part in the 2006 madness v
Australia.
Managers
Zlatko Dalic had spent much of the
last decade working for teams around the Middle East when he answered his countrys
SOS call with 48 hours left to go before the crunch tie in the Ukraine. Dalic’s
team won that, and surprisingly trounced Greece in the playoffs.
Heimir Hallgrimsson took Iceland to
the Euro 2016 quarterfinals and now has qualified Iceland for their first World
Cup. Not bad. He’s also a dentist.
Jorge Sampaoli took Chile to the
last 16 of the 2014 World Cup, and had a brief spell at Sevilla.
Gernot Rohr has enjoyed a journeyman
career, with spells in charge of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon. In the 1990s,
he took Bordeaux to the 1996 UEFA Cup final.
Crux of the group
Nigeria v Croatia will give us a
good idea of how this group plans to shape.
The result
This group is splitting opinions.
Joao, who you might recall from the Euro 2012 blogs, is convinced Argentina
will go out in the group stage. I think the schedule highly favours Nigeria for
2nd. Croatian fans expect to qualify, seemingly, and think Nigeria
will get trashed. Others think Iceland will advance. Don’t you just love these
easily predictable groups? I think Argentina will advance, and the group
reminds me of their 2014 group. Narrow wins against the first two, and beat
Nigeria but both advance. A Nigeria draw v Croatia and win against Iceland
could see through. A Croatia or Iceland win in either of those games blows the
group wide open. As indeed, does a win over Argentina, who aren’t infallible…
Group E
(Brazil, Serbia,
Switzerland, Costa Rica)
How they got there –
Costa Rica eased through qualifying,
helping to end the dreams of Haiti and Jamaica before finishing a creditable 2nd
in the final CONCACAF round. Their qualification cemented by doing the double
over the United States, who didn’t even score a goal in the 4-0 and 2-0
defeats.
Switzerland won 9 out of 10
qualifying matches, yet had to settle for a playoff. That was won in
controversial circumstances against Northern Ireland, but it would be hard to
begrudge the Swiss, now that the smoke has cleared, from qualifying after those
sorts of stats.
Serbia finished top of a group with the
Irish, Welsh, Austrians, Georgians, and Moldovans.
Brazil’s World Cup journey started
with a 2-0 defeat in Chile. The same Chile that didn’t qualify (an event Jon
Arnold called in November 2015, incidentally). It would be rewriting the book
to say they wouldn’t have qualified with Dunga in charge, as 9 points from 6
games, even with lousy performances, would equate to a qualifying total
average, if not an impressive one. However, a quarterfinal defeat in the 2015
Copa America (to Paraguay), and going out in the group stages of the Copa
Centenario (after a 1-0 defeat to Peru) meant the end for Dunga. The qualifying
record after Tite took charge was remarkable, as you might imagine from 32
points, 10 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 30 goals scored and 2 conceded from 12
qualifiers. They’ve gone from being part of the ongoing Brazilian tragedy, to
the form team on the planet.
Who have they got
Brazil: Neymar, Gabriel Jesus,
Firmino, Coutino, Fred (not the same Fred), Casemiro, Filipe Luis, Thiago
Silva, Allisson, Willian…Squad could be worse.
Costa Rica have many of the players
from 2014 – Urena, Gamboa, Duarte, Ruiz – only now they are 4 years older. They
do have Keylor Navas, who is a brilliant goalkeeper, and is going to need to be
on top form.
Milinkovic-Savic is a bloody good
player for Lazio, overlooked by Serbia till recently. Zivkovic and Jovic seem
good young players, Matic is a star, and the defence is familiar and rugged.
No real surprises in the Swiss side
which has been fairly consistent in recent tournaments. Shaqiri and Xhaka in
midfield, Behrami, Djourou, Lichtsteiner, you know them. Young Embolo will make
his World Cup debut, a fine player now at Schalke.
World Cup history: Brazil won it 5
times. Serbia haven’t done much since Yugoslavia split up, despite so much
talent. Costa Rica were Quarterfinalists in 2014, and the Swiss were
Quarterfinalists in 1954.
Favourite world cup moments per team:
Truthfully, 7-1, but elsewhere, Brazil v Costa Rica from 2002. Oh wait, we get
a sequel? Fantastic. Costa Rica’s game v Germany in 2006. Serbia beat Germany
in 2010. The Swiss… haven’t met Ukraine since, thankfully.
Managers
If you haven’t read Tite’s affirmation of his role, you really ought to. He gets it. His transformation of
Brazil into the mythical beasts of legend is as sensational as his own personal
journey. This is the way everyone tells us Brazil play, after so many dull but
effective sides. The worry is that if winning the Cup is a bridge too far, then
the forces of negativism consider it a lesson best unlearned. Remember that it
took 3 World Cups in the new style for
Brazil to dominate again after 1982.
Oscar Hernandez was assistant
manager to Paulo Wanchope, only to replace Wanchope after he quit. He
previously managed Alajuelense.
Mladen Krastajic was a coach under
the previous Serbian manager who qualified them to the World Cup.
Vladimir Petkovic chalked up runs at
4 Swiss clubs and won the Coppa Italia with Lazio in 2013, before leaving the
Serie A giants in controversial circumstances to take over the Swiss side.
Crux of the group: Serbia v
Switzerland is the playoff to advance.
The result: Brazil top, and looking
good. Costa Rica look old and the schedule doesn’t protect them – words which
will no doubt look foolish in a few weeks time! It’s down to the Swiss and the
Serbs, and despite all of me siding with the mercurial Serbs, their track
record at these things isn’t good, whereas the Swiss track record is. So form
prevails.
Group F
(Germany, Mexico, South Korea, Sweden)
How they got there –
Germany won all their games in a
group against Northern Ireland, San Marino, Norway, Azerbaijan and the Czech
Republic. With a goals per game ration which went down to 2.8 if you took out
the San Marino games (and 4.3 if you didn’t), they never looked troubled.
Sweden had to beat the Netherlands
to a playoff spot, which they did. Then they needed to beat Italy in a playoff,
which they did, without conceding a goal.
Mexico coasted through with only 1
defeat in 16 qualifying games, that defeat being their final game when already
qualified, a 3-2 reverse to Honduras which eliminated the United States. Before
your conspiracy heads rise, I remind you that if the States had even got a
measly draw from bottom side Trinidad and Tobago in their final game, they’d
have qualified automatically. Unlike 2014, Mexico were never in doubt for the
2018 Cup, and their favourite moment was probably the late winner in Columbus
Ohio to beat their perennial enemies. Remember, a single point more would have
qualified the US. Mexico were coming into the World Cup as a team in form,
although they lost a friendly to Croatia in March and then subsequently drew
0-0 with Wales.
South Korea won every game in their
opening group against Laos, Myanmar, Kuwait and Lebanon. Then came the second
group stage, and to say they benefitted from their rivals wouldn’t be
uncharitable. The Koreans mustered only 4 wins from 10 games, and lost in Iran,
China and even Qatar. First off, Qatar aren’t very good so were never in
contention. Secondly, China are swiftly improving as a football nation, but 2
points from the first 5 qualifiers was the World Cup equivalent of slitting
your own wrists. Despite a valiant comeback (11 points from the next 5 games),
China finished agonisingly one point off the playoffs. I suspect they’ll be a
much tougher prospect in the 2022 qualifying. Uzbekistan never qualify for the
World Cup, and sure enough as soon as it became possible, they blew it again.
Only needing one win from their last four, they got none, and even in the dying
seconds of their final game, knowing a single goal would take them to Russia,
it never seemed to threaten. This left Syria, up for a game, but undone by
crucial lapses. They came so close. Iran were also of great help, beating all
of South Korea’s rivals so no one got a helping hand. And so South Korea,
despite miserable form, crawled over the line to qualify.
Who have they got:
Germany have some of the best
players of their generation: Muller, Kroos, Khedira, Reus, Neuer, Hummels, and
so on. They also have some really good younger players like Sane, Draxler,
Brandt and Gundogan.
Mexico have one of the best and most
settled midfields in the Cup, with Guardado, dos Santos, Herrera and Aquino all
well played at the top level. Hernandez gets the goals, Vela is back in the
team, Jiminez, Corona and Lozano all look promising. Oh, and Rafa Marquez might
play at his 5th straight World Cup.
Sweden have some of the most
underrated players at the tournament, with a core from Serie A in their team. Forsberg
of Leipzig is a fine player who can make magic happen, and with Toivonen and
Larsson they have a wealth of experience.
South Korea have got Son Heung-min.
World Cup history: South Korea made
the Semifinals in 2002, Sweden made the Semifinals in 1994, Mexico made the
Quarterfinals in 1970, and Germany made the Semifinals in 2014, 2010, 2006,
2002, 1990, 1986, 1982, 1974, 1970, 1966… Think they won it too? Defending
champions, really?
Favourite world cup moments per team:
Germany played some great football in 2010 and 2014, culminating with a
deserved World title. South Korea KO’d Italy in 2002. Sweden had a good match
with Argentina in 2002, also. Mexico should have beat the Netherlands in 2014,
so I’ll go with another losing effort – their 2-1 extra time defeat to
Argentina in 2006.
Managers
Shin Tae-Yong previously managed
Seongnam.
Janne Andersson won the Swedish
title in 2015 with Norrkoping.
Juan Carlos Osorio previously had
spells in charge of Sao Paulo, Once Caldas and New York Red Bulls.
Joachim Low won the World Cup in
2014, and has taken Germany to the Semifinals at worst of every tournament he
has managed at – Euro 2008, Euro 2012, Euro 2016, World Cup 2010 and 2014.
Crux of the group
Sweden v Mexico.
The result
South Korea are out of their depth.
Mexico always get out of the group. Germany tend to struggle in their second
group match. Putting all this into my brain tells me that Germany will draw
Sweden, thus needing to beat South Korea to advance. They’ll do that, and
Sweden will lose to Mexico. However, I keep thinking one of Argentina/France or
Brazil/Germany will happen in the last 16. Also, notice Germany have scored at
least 4 in each World Cup opener this century? Watch this space…
Group G
(England, Belgium, Panama,
Tunisia)
How they got there –
England won their group by 8 point,
including a late equaliser at Hampden which wound up eliminating the Scots.
Belgium got 28 points from 30 in a
group (Gibraltar, Cyprus, Estonia, Bosnia, Greece), which didn’t trouble them
much.
Panama finished 2nd in Costa Rica’s qualifying group, with a home
and away win over Jamaica proving crucial. In the final group, they only won 3
games, and were actually thumped 4-0 by the USA. Despite that, they found
themselves difficult to break down and so amassed 10 points from 9 games. On
the final day, at 1-1 v Costa Rica, it was the Hondurans qualifying for their 3rd
straight World Cup, and the US settling for the playoffs until Roman Torres’s
late late goal. The goal that sparked a public holiday in Panama.
Tunisia eased by Mauritania, were
too much for Guinea and Libya, and in the end, held their nerve in a de facto
two leg playoff against the fancied DR Congo in September 2017. The two group
games were 4 days apart, the first a win for Tunisia at home decided on a
penalty, and the second a crux game where Tunisia scored 2 in 2 minutes late on
after being 2-0 down. They qualified by a single point, so that 120 seconds was
crucial. Even then, they struggled to a 0-0 at home against Libya on the final
day, knowing any slip would prove fatal.
Who have they got
England have some nice young players
– Trent Alexander Arnold was crucial to Liverpool’s run to the Champions League
final.
Panama have Blas Perez and Tunisia
Khazri – both need to take the limited chances their teams will get.
Belgium have all the midfielders –
De Bruyne and Hazard being the most famous.
World Cup history: Belgium got to
the World Cup quarterfinals in 2014. Tunisia have never got out of the group
stage. Panama are making their debut. England won the World Cup in 1966. Sadly
for Badiel and Skinner, “52 years of hurt” doesn’t scan so well.
Favourite world cup moments per team:
England v Argentina 1998 is a good game. Belgium should have beaten Brazil in
2002. Tunisia had me believing for 30 mins in 2006 they would beat Spain.
Managers
Gareth Southgate was in charge of
the English U21s and previously had a spell as Middlesbrough manager. Roberto
Martinez had spells in charge of Wigan and Everton and won the FA Cup with
Wigan in 2013. Nabil Maaloul previously managed Tunisia in 2013. Hernan Dario
Gomez, who has taken Panama to their first World Cup, previously took Colombia
and Ecuador to the World Cup in 1998 and 2002 respectively.
Crux of the group
There isn’t one.
The result
Belgium and England go through
easily. Panama and Tunisia are sadly undone by dearth of talent, and injuries
to key players.
Group H
(Colombia, Japan, Senegal,
Poland)
How they got there –
Despite the 4-0 defeat in Denmark,
Poland finished easily top of their group.
Despite a late wobble, Columbia
finished in 4th in South America.
Japan trounced a qualifying group of
Syria, Singapore, Afghanistan and Cambodia, before comfortably finishing top of
their final stage group, 1 point ahead of the Saudis.
Senegal beat Madagascar in a
playoff, then survived a group of Burkina Faso, the Cape Verde Islands, and
South Africa. If that doesn’t sound so tough, then I remind you that Togo was
meant to be an easier group in 2006 qualfiying and yet Senegal didn’t make it.
Who have they got
Colombia have Falcao at a World Cup
after missing 2014 to injury. James is there too, looking good at Bayern this
season. Japan have their 2014 players – Honda, Kagawa, Hasebe, Okazaki. Beyoond Lewandowski, Poland have the core of
Serie A talent through their team – Milik and Zielinski, for example. Senegal
possess Sadio Mane, M’baye Niang, and Keita Balde, and if that front three
clicks it could be magic.
World Cup history
Senegal made the Quarterfinals in
2002. Colombia made the Quarterfinals in 2014. Japan made the last 16 in 2002.
Poland finished 3rd in 1974 and 1982.
Favourite world cup moments per team: Senegal beating France, James’s goal in 2014,
Japan’s game v Denmark in 2010 and Poland… played well in 1982, historically.
Managers
Jose Pekerman previously managed
Argentina to the 2006 Quarterfinals and Colombia to the 2014 Quarterfinals.
Akira Nishino took over recently from Vahid Halihodzic, a courageous decision.
He was manager of Gamba Osaka for 9 years. Adam Nawalka took Poland to the Euro
2016 Quarterfinals. Aliou Cisse has been manager of Senegal since 2015, and
played for Birmingham City and Portsmouth during his playing career.
Crux of the group
All of the games tbh, but Poland v
Senegal is must win for both.
The result
Think it’s 2 from 3 of Colombia,
Poland and Senegal. Senegal have a fine front 3, if they gell. Colombia have
the best manager of the four, and Poland the best defence. Japan seem an aging
team and have sacked their ace. Living dangerously, Colombia and Senegal to
make it through. Everyone can score goals, those who actually do will go
through.
So a bit of prognostication for fun.
Based on those predictions, the last 16 would be:
Uruguay v Spain
Portugal v Egypt
Argentina v Denmark
France v Nigeria (repeat of 2014)
Brazil v Mexico
Germany v Switzerland
Belgium v Senegal
Colombia v England
Quarterfinals
Spain v France
Brazil v Belgium
Portugal v Argentina
Germany v Colombia
Semis
France v Brazil
Argentina v Germany
Final
Brazil v Germany – Brazil win.
Germany have KO’d Argentina from the
last three World Cups. The German route to the final – if they finish top of
their group – is relatively kind and we’ve already noted Low’s 100% record in
reaching Semifinals. Argentina weak but should be too much for Denmark and I
can see Messi raising his game to stop Ronaldo winning the World Cup, to put it
crudely.
No doubt all of this is wrong.
But
that’s the bit I’m looking forward to. To find out how wrong I am.
Who predicted
Iceland would make the Euro quarterfinals? Everyone, which is why I heavily
backed Austria… Oh wait.
In 2014, Costa Rica were overlooked heavily. In 2010,
it was the Uruguayans. In 2006, Team Italy was Lippi and me, and they won!
There are 5 teams that could legit win the World Cup outright, but all have a
singular flaw that could be their undoing. There’s also another 10 sides, not
likely winners, but who could beat any team on the planet on their best day,
and I do include England in this second group.
For all we can talk and surmise
in advance, nobody knows anything, and that’s the most exciting thing. Most
open World Cup finals in years.
Now watch it be a Germany/Brazil
final!
Hey, at least it’s not Switzerland
vs Ukraine…
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