Scottish Election (2021) preview

 For some reason my election previews remain quite popular, despite the fact they are either in the right ballpark (2019) or wildly off (2015).  Although, aren't most? If you go by the view that the Scottish electorate are actually addicted to exciting election night coverage now, who knows what twists and turns will show up before May 6th. 

Anyhow, instead of looking at every single seat (many of which are very safe), this looks at the upcoming election in three ways: SNP targets, SNP defence, the regional lists. If you want to skim over, the gist is this is a lot more volatile than the polls suggest.

 

 

Part 1 - SNP Targets Seats (they currently hold 59 of 73 constituencies)

 

 

Dumbarton - Jackie Ballie vs a regular loser seems unlikely to shift.

Ayr - The Tory equivalent - never a safe swing for John Scott but he's held onto it for 21 years now. Also another Indy fan running in this seat, unlikely to harm the Tory vote.

Edinburgh Central - No incumbent, a name SNP politician (Angus Robertson) running, a seat they held before, decent chance of a flip.

West Aberdeenshire - Strong Tory vote as of late, seemingly a popular local MP - although who knows which way the fishing import stuff will land?

Edinburgh Southern - A three way that takes up a chunk of Ian Murray's Westminster seat and has had many tight contests this past decade. Seems to be one of Labours strongest positions left in Scotland.

East Lothian - No incumbent. Close to call.

Dumfriesshire - Another area that seems to be moving to the Tories, not the other way round.

Eastwood - 3 way marginal, big name Tory incumbent.

Galloway - Another pretty solid Tory area.

Edinburgh Western - Doesn't seem like a very good SNP candidate to take on the Lib Dem.

North East Fife - Rennie won relatively comfortably in 2016, the Liberal revival continued in 2017 and 2019 - imo, increased majority. (Also, Willie Rennie is quite good at bucking expectations of doom in elections.)

 

Orkney, Shetland - We all know who is winning here, and it isn't the SNP.

 

There's also the Ettrick seat which is rather safe Tory.

 

So, with that written down, 61 feels like the absolute ceiling for the SNP in terms of the constituencies. A mere 84%, yes. But if we look at the seats they're defending, we'll find a fair few in danger seats, which means the odds of the SNP being in a situation they *need* list seats for their indy-majority seems quite high to me.

 

Part 2 - SNP Defence (those 59...well a few of them. 40 or so are safer than houses...)

 

 

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire – Roseanna Cunningham retiring so lack of incumbent. Jim Fairlie standing – not the 80 year old Wiki assumes but the brother of the late Andrew Fairlie, the chef. They were quite heavily involved in the Indy campaign. Liz Smith is standing for the Tories for the third election in a row in the seat - known figure in the area?

 

Edinburgh Pentlands – Another rematch from 2016, with SNP incumbent Gordon MacDonald taking on Tory Gordon Lindhurst. Only needs a small shift in votes, but there's not much news online to get a sense of where things are. Tories seem to be doing a lot of leafleting in the area.

 

Angus North and Mearns – Mairi Gougeon (nee Evans) standing again, main opposition Tory Braden Davy (who used to be in the Labour party until Brexit). Again, an area of the country more friendly to the Tories, and the recent SNP covid money thing happened here so they could use that to their advantage?

 

Aberdeen South and North Kincardine – Maureen Watt retiring, no incumbent. List Tory Liam Kerr is one of their more public frontbenchers. SNP candidate Audrey Nicoll beat perennial hopeful Christian Allard (MSP 2011-16, MEP 2019-2019).

 

Moray – What had been considered the best chance of a Tory gain under new leader Douglas Ross has been somewhat tempered by Douglas Ross not actually standing in the seat.  This remains one of the most shoggly pegs for the Nats however.

 

Perthshire North – John Swinney (SNP) has been having a rather torrid time of late, and Murdo Fraser (Tory) is one of their better known figures – and has nursed the seat for some time – making this on paper more of a banana skin than some of the others. Surprised, even with the reasoning, that Swinney is 2nd on the regional list here, making it seem likely that if he lost this seat he is gone from parliament.

 

Rutherglen – SNP/Lab marginal. As it stands you'd assume the SNP could hold those right now but this one is most vulnerable to any Scottish Labour revival during the campaign - wouldn't hold my breath on that one though.

 

Angus South – Graeme Dey defends his 4300 majority against the Tory economic spokesman, Maurice Golden. The Tory is in interest position as, while a sitting MSP and top of the regional list, if the party do as well as some forecast in the North East, then he may need to win this seat to stay in parliament.

 

Aberdeen Central – Kevin Stewart defends 4349 majority. Greens standing here. Don't know the boundaries to say how safe or unsafe that majority is against a Tory challenge and thus can't rule it out.

 

Aberdeenshire East – Alex Salmond’s old seat. Gillian Martin won it for the SNP in 2016 quite convincingly against Colin Clark (Tory) and Christine Jardine (Lib Dems), both of whom later became MPs. A seat for a good campaign?

 

Carrick Cumnock Doon Valley – No incumbent. Health Secretary Jeanne Freeman is retiring, and may have been vulnerable to a decap-policy by Labour.

 

Stirling – No incumbent. Tory Europe shadow minister Dean Lockhart standing again.

 

Banffshire and Buchan – A swing of 11.5%+ required. No incumbent. Only area in Scotland to swing TO the Tories in 2019. Given the fishing aspect, may be an interesting race more than some more notionally closer races.

 

 

Marginals not in real danger (short of collapse)

 

Cowdenbeath - Annabelle Ewing gained this for the SNP in 2016 but she was only taking on Alex Rowley. She is taking on Rowley again.

 

Caithness Sutherland and Ross – No incumbent. Was a SNP/Lib marginal in 2016 (but their candidate was Jamie Stone). SNP candidate Maree Todd, a list MSP and also Children's Minister. The Lib Dems have selected a 23 year old which doesn’t speak much for their hopes of winning the seat.

 

Dunfermline – Shirley-Anne Somerville takes on Dunfermline again, this time as the incumbent. Labour candidate Julie MacDougall is the daughter of the late Glenrothes MP John. See Rutherglen with considerable less chance of flipping.

 

Glasgow Kelvin – No SNP incumbent, the 2nd place in 2016 was Patrick Harvie who is running again. This feels like one the SNP will hold due to a very split opposition. The original Scottish labour candidate here (elected unanimously by her constituency party) was deselected by the party for not being sufficiently unionist enough. This led to nearly the entire CLP exec in Glasgow Kelvin resigning from their positions in protest. Bit of a mess.

 

Edinburgh Eastern – Ash Denham (SNP) defends. Labour are second but underperformed here in 2016 with Kezia Dugdale contesting the seat, through a direct Labour to Tory swing in the vote. There’s very little non-SNP vote to squeeze to make it closer than it was in 2011.

 

Renfrewshire South – Tom Arthur (SNP) gained this in 2016 when Hugh Henry retired. The Tory standing in this seat is Derek Stillie, the former Aberdeen and Dunfermline goalkeeper! Scotia Future indy group seem unlikely to take votes off the Tories – to put it mildly – but given the majority is 4400 and the Lib Dems took 793 votes in 2016, we’re not talking problems.

 

Midlothian South – Christine Grahame stands for election for the 6th time. The Tories came 2nd (a mere 5868 votes behind) in 2016 by cannibalising the Lib Dem vote. Oddly there are THREE pro-indy ref parties running here, although the Vanguard Party (run by a former Brexit party member who is running on it as a call their bluff style campaign) and the Green are unlikely to dent much beyond 1% combined.

 

 

Paisley – A George Adam (SNP) v Neil Bibby (Labour) rematch, likely to produce the same result.

 

Clydesdale – No incumbent as Aileen Campbell is standing down. Claudia Beamish (Labour environment spokesperson under the last four Scottish Labour leaders) finished a poor third here in 2016, and is running again. The next SNP MSP here (sorry to kill the suspense) is Mairi McAllan, a climate change activist lawyer.

 

Argyll and Bute – No incumbent as Michael Russell retiring after better part of 20 years in parliament. Alan Reid (Lib Dems) fights this general area yet again in the hope to return to elected office, his 4th go since losing his Westminster seat in 2015. If at first you don’t succeed? The Tory Health spokesman Donald Cameron is also running again. It feels like the opposition will cancel each other out, allowing the former BBC employee Jenni Minto to become an SNP MSP.

 

Skye Lochaber Badenoch – Kate Forbes has a very healthy 9k majority and a 3 way split in her opposition. Combine that with apparently local popular support, and a collapse in the Liberal vote, and safe.

 

I don't think we need to look at the next 40 SNP held seats, which will only fall during a cataclysmic event type election.

 

 

Part 3- The Regional Lists

 

Mid-Scotland/Fife

7 seats (4 Tory, 2 Lab, 1 Green)

 

Notable names standing:

 

Alba – Neale Hanvey (2nd), former MSP Jim Eadie (3rd)

Tories – Murdo Fraser, Liz Smith, Dean Lockhart, Alexander Stewart

Labour – Claire Baker, Alex Rowley

Lib Dems – Willie Rennie

SNP – John Swinney (2nd!), Keith Brown (3rd), Annabelle Ewing (4th)

also – Abolish the Scottish Parliament, The Freedom Alliance, Reform UK, Renew, The Scottish Family (?), UKIP and 2 independents

 

Position in 2016

SNP 120k (none), Tory 73k (4), Lab 51k (2), Lib Dems 20k (0), Greens 17k (1)

 

The SNP picked up none as they hold 8 of the 9 constituencies in the region. Oddly as noted above, John Swinney is 2nd on the SNP list so if he does lose his constituency, he’s likely toast unless the SNP undergo an unexpected collapse. A relatively status quo style list result could see the main topic of interest be in the North East Fife constituency. If Rennie holds onto the seat (as I expect), the Greens hold onto their regional list spot here. If he loses, he takes it off them. 7% of the vote (circa 17-20, 000 votes) isn’t a tough ask for Alba, but Hanvey and Eadie don’t strike as particularly vote grabbing candidates.

 

 

Lothian

7 seats (3 Tory, 2 Lab, 2 Green)

 

Notable names standing

Alba – Kenny MacAskill (1st), Alex Arthur

Tory – Miles Briggs (1st)

Labour – Daniel Johnson (1st), Sarah Boyack (2nd)

Lib – Alex Cole-Hamilton 91st)

Greens – Alison Johnstone (1st), Lorna Slater (2nd)

SNP – Angus Robertson (2nd), Fiona Hyslop (3rd)

also – All for Unity, Abolish, Animal Welfare Party, The Freedom Alliance, Reform UK, Renew, The Scottish Family, Libertarians, The SDP (!!!), UKIP, the Womens Equality Party, an independent and a communist! Finally, your “who’d lose least in an election, a communist no hoper or a libertarian one?” queries will be answered…

 

Last time – SNP 118k (none), Tory 74k (3), Lab 67 (2), Greens 34k (2), Lib Dems 18k (none)

 

With a few constituencies being on the fun list here, it wouldn’t surprise if Angus Robertson winds up back in parliament one route or the other. One area that Alba might nabbing enough votes to put Kenny McAskill back at Holyrood, but if they do, it will come off the Greens (and this is still on the unlikely events list). I'm also told to expect less pro-Alba votes in the capital than elsewhere by folk there. If the Tories do win Pentlands, it plays havoc with the regional vote too.

 

 

South Scotland

7 seats (3 SNP, 2 Tory, 2 Lab)

 

Notable names standing

Alba – Corri Wilson (2nd)

All for Unity – George fn Galloway (1st)

Reform UK – Michelle Ballantyne (1st)

Scotia Future – Chic Brodie

Tory – Oliver Mundell (1st), Rachael Hamilton (2nd)

Labour – Colin Smyth (1st), Martin Whitfield (3rd), Claudia Beamish (4th)

SNP – Emma Harper (1st), Joan McAlpine (2nd)

Also – Abolish, The Freedom Alliance, The Scottish Family Party, UKIP, Vanguard, the Independence for Scotland Party, a libertarian and the Independent Green Voice. I count that about 6 different pro-indy ref parties running, including the ¤¤¤¤stirrers. But not the independent Green voice, who is a unionist. Confused?

 

Last time – SNP 120k (3), Tory 100k (2), Labour 56k (2), Greens 14k (0), Lib Dems 11k (nada), UKIP 6k (again nowt)

 

The Tories did very well on the list here last time, with over 100, 000 votes. If the SNP do finally take Iain Gray’s former seat, any rise in the Tory vote here could flip one of those SNP regional seats to the Tories. (Paul Wheelhouse doesn’t like this.) Claudia Beamish is pretty much done here unless she can flip Clydesdale to Labour somehow  - she's been quite high profile for Labour since 2016 so I don't know whose cornflakes she pissed in. The Greens and Lib Dems were far too far behind, and Corri Wilson in 2017 appeared to have a sort of negative vote. The less said about George Galloway, the better. The big 3 will split the 7 between them.

 

 

West Scotland

7 seats (3 Labour, 3 Tory, 1 Green)

 

Notable standing

Tory – Jackson Carlaw (1st), Derek Stillie (7th!) – current list MSP Maurice Corry is 8th!

Labour – Jackie Bailie (1st), Neil Bibby (2nd), Katy Clark (3rd, the former Arran MP who worked for Jeremy Corbyn)

Greens – Ross Greer

Also – Alba, Lib Dems, Reform UK, the SNP, TUSC

 

Last time – SNP 135k (None), Lab 72k (3), Tory 71k (3), Green 17k (1), Lib Dem 12k (none), UKIP 5k (none)

 

I think the SNP seats here are mostly fairly safe, so the SNP wont gain any of the list seats. Jackie Baillie will either hold onto Dumbarton or return on the list. Carlaw seems safe to return also. The big fight is Green v Lib Dems but I think the Green will hold on.

 

 

 

NE Scotland

7 seats (4 Tory, 2 Lab, 1 Lib)

 

Notables

Alba – Alex Salmond (1st)

Tory – Liam Kerr (1st), Alexander Burnett (2nd)

Labour – Michael Marra (1st)

Greens – Maggie Chapman (1st)

SNP – Christian fn Allard (2nd)

Also – Abolish, All for Unity, Lib Dems, Reform UK, Renew, Restore Scotland, UKIP, 2 independents and 1 libertarian.

 

Last time – SNP 137k (none), Tory 85k (4), Lab 38k (2), Lib Dem 18k (1), Greens 15k (0), UKIP 6k (0)

 

The most interest region. There are currently 4 Tory list MSPs and 0 SNP. If the Tories do as well as they seem to think they might in Aberdeenshire and Banff, then this list number falls apart. Even if the SNP vote falls down it’ll still be comfortable enough to gain with a few constituency losses. Alba’s big beast is running here, in an area that required 6% (18k) for a list seat in 2016. If they can’t win here, they can’t win anywhere – I think he’s probably enough of a pull here to win another seat. The Lib Dem seat is most at risk – Labour seem too far ahead.

 

 

Highlands/Islands

 

7 seats (1 SNP, 3 Tory, 2 Lab, 1 Green)

 

Notables

Tory – Douglas Ross (1st)

Lib Dems – Alan Reid (1st)

Labour – Rhoda Grant (1st)

SNP – Kate Forbes (2nd), Maree Todd (3rd), Fergus Ewing (4th)

Independent – Andy Wightman

Also – Abolish, Alba, All for Unity, the Freedom Alliance, ISP, Reform UK, Restore Scotland, Scottish Family Party, Greens, Libertarians, TUSC, UKP and Hazel Mansfield.

 

Last time – SNP 81k (1), Tory 44k (3), Lib 27k (none), Lab 22k (2), Greens 14k (1)

 

Lib Dem vote went down in 2019 – imo they’ll hold Orkney and Shetland and that’ll be it, constituency wise... Although for Alan Reid, the maths is such the Lib Dems could lose votes yet gain an MSP based on what happens in the SNP/Tory seats. (Note the various U-turns in the last two sentences and awe at the regional list system!) Labour seem like they’ll stay at the threshold for 2 list members. Maree Todd may hold on if the Tories gain some of her colleagues seats. Andy Wightman’s bid to stay in the parliament is a tough ask too - almost mission impossible. He's moved regions too - John Finnie (the Green) is standing down but outside of A list names like Margo McDonald and Denis Canavan, independents on the list don't tend to have much success.

 

 

Glasgow

7 seats (4 Labour, 2 Tory, 1 Green)

 

Notables standing

Tory – Annie Wells (1st)

Lab – Pauline McNeil (1st), Anas Sarwar (2nd), Paul Sweeney (3rd), James Kelly (5th0

SNP – Roza Salih (1st), Nicola Sturgeon (2nd)

Greens – Patrick Harvie (1st)

Also – Abolish, Alba, All for Unity, a Communist, Freedom Alliance, independent Green, Lib Dems, Libertarians, Reclaim, Reform UK, Renew, Scottish Family, SDP, TUSC, UKIP, Womens Equality Party and 2 independents.

 

Last time – SNP 111k (none), Labour 59k (4), Tory 29k (2), Greens 23k (1), Lib Dems 5k/UKIP 4k/Solidarity 3.5k

 

SNP will sweep the constituencies so no list MSPS for them. Labour will hang around the 50k mark so keep 4. The only fight of note is for the final spot, and is between the Tories keeping their 2nd seat or the Greens gaining one.

 

 

 

Central Scotland

7 seats (3 Tory, 4 Lab)

 

Notables standing

Alba – Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (1st)

Tory – Stephen Kerr (1st)

Labour – Richard Leonard (1st), Monica Lennon (2nd0

SNP – Christina McKelvie (2nd), Neil Gray (3rd), Michelle Thomson (4th)

Last time – SNP 129k (none), Lab 67k (4), Tory 43k (3), Greens 12k (none)

 

SNP clean sweep again likely. Main beneficiary will be Stephen Kerr (Tory MP Stirling 2017-19). Another one where the top 3 were so ahead of everyone else, I can’t see much change in the status quo.

 

 

 

 

 

Current State of Parties (2016 numbers)

 

SNP 63, Tory 31, Lab 24, Green 6, Lib Dems 5, (Reform 1 – defection)

 

 

 

conservative (not Tory) projection based on the above

 

SNP 61 Tory 33, Lab 23, Green 5, Alba 2, lib 5

 

SNP -2, Tory +2, Lab -1, Green -1, Alba +2, Lib no change

 

 

 

So in short (I do apologise), yes, the SNP could go backwards in this election easily. They are at risk in more seats than they are likely to gain off the opposition, and I don't think there's enough room in the lists to make up that ground. In fact my rather conservative (non-party) picks have the SNP/Greens/Alba combined at 68, so things are far more in flux imo. This is a very important election for the Scottish Tories - and indeed, for the SNP. All it takes is one good night in the constituencies or the list maths to be slightly in one direction for the power in Edinburgh to shift considerably.

And this all assumes Scottish Labour don't make a sudden comeback, despite the surprisingly decent performances of Anas Sarwar in the debates. Yes, but in the debates wee Willie Rennie was his usual invisible man, yet watch what happens in the actual election.

Anyhow, not long to go now...

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