2019 Election Seat by Seat

2019 Election Projection

So in 2017 Andrew Marr told us that, for those of us who liked election nights, this could be our year. And merely 30 months later… Of course, lots have changed since then. Not Brexit, that’s still happening. Not Corbyn, he’s still a thing.

Anyhow, back in 2015, I tried to do a seat by seat projection of the election. I pointed out many (accurate) trends and curves and then… completely got the wrong seat projection from it. In 2017, I didn’t bother as I was sure of a Tory landslide. But here we are in an unpredictable environment so here is the seat-by-seat projection again.  

Some seats have more to say than others. There really is not much to say about Liverpool Walton, a seat in which Labour could suffer a 38.4% swing against them and still hold onto. But with the best will and intentions, onwards…

Scotland 

1. Edinburgh South (Ian Murray – LAB). Requires 16.2% swing to SNP. Safest Labour seat in Scotland, marshalled by a strong campaigning team. Even in the EU elections when the Labour vote tanked in Scotland, they held relatively firm here. LAB HOLD

2. Glasgow North East (Paul Sweeney – LAB). Requires a 0.35% swing to SNP. Anne McLaughlin (MP 2015-17) is standing again here for the seat with the most social deprivation in Scotland. SNP GAIN

3. Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (Hugh Gaffney – LAB). Requires a 1.8% swing to the SNP. On paper an easy target for the Nats, and a perennial shifter on Electoral Calculus. Yet local factors could play a significant role here. This was Labour’s strong hold for 34 years under Tom Clarke, and the SNP organisation in the seat isn’t great. Last election there was a split in the SNP here and it doesn’t appear to be mended, having been “suspended for toxic atmosphere” in the past and “notorious for its infighting” to quote the Herald in September. On the flipside, Labour’s team here tends to be quite solid (as denotes their long stranglehold on the seat outwith the 2015 surge), and they have held both their byelections for the council in the last 18 months. Gaffney seems to have gone big on saving Monklands Hospital. He’s also the only choice if you were a tactical Unionist. LAB HOLD

4. Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Ged Killen – LAB). Requires a 0.25% swing to SNP. The MP Killen is a vocal opponent of ATM charges. The narrowest held Labour seat feels most likely to fall back on a (small) swing to the SNP, and former MP Margaret Ferrier is standing here again. SNP GAIN.

5. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Lesley Laird LAB) – Requires 0.25% swing to SNP. Gordon Browns old seat. The Tories aren’t that far behind (6.7% swing) to make the Unionist tactical voting feel likely. The Times reports a shortage of Labour activists in the seat with MP Lesley Laird forced to ask for help on Facebook. It seems like prime SNP gain territory. SNP GAIN

6. Midlothian (Danielle Rowley LAB). Requires a 1% swing to the SNP, 5.5% swing to the Tories. I’m sure we all remember The Midlothian Campaign, but things have gone south for the Liberal chances here somewhat since Gladstone’s day. Former SNP MP Owen Thompson running again in this seat. Rowley has a number of activists on her side, and has been campaigning on a number of local issues like post office closures. SNP GAIN, for now.

7. East Lothian (Martin Whitfield LAB). Requires a 2.8% swing to the SNP, and a 3.3% swing to the Tories. Would have been seen as an exciting three way marginal if not for bigger name ones or smaller swing ones elsewhere. The SNP are bring out the big guns to try and win this one back, by which I mean former Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill, one of the big beats of the SNP. This pits a highly successful politician aiming for his first run at Westminster, verses an area Labour have pretty much held the seat in Scotland despite heavy swings against them nationally. Iain Gray kept the seat in 2011 and 2016 at Holyrood, and the council elections held firm. Immovable object vs irresistible force. Lack of Unionist tactical vote (the Tories will be aiming for a good 2nd to challenge next time out) and the strong SNP candidate suggests a gain just now, but of all the Labour held seats in Scotland this is the least surprising if it does an Evan Bayh 2018. SNP GAIN

8. East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson LIB). Requires a 5.2% swing to the SNP. Swinson’s vote held rather firm in 2015 despite her loss so even with the high profile of the 2015-17 SNP member, it was little surprise to see her winning it back. IN fact in 4 elections her local vote has been fairly static, 36-41% regardless of the national trend. The SNP could squeeze the Labour and even the Tory vote down, but is there enough of a tactical swing against Swinson, I have my doubts. There is rumours of tactical pushes against both major Westminster leaders in Scotland and neither seem very likely to succeed. Also, the Green candidate here has a great Harry Potter side character sounding name: Carolynn Scrimgeour. LIB HOLD

9. Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael LIB). Did you see how much money the SNP spent on the recent Orkney and Shetland Holyrood byelection? And that they lost? They got a staggering swing in 2015, and lost. This is the safest Liberal held seat in the world, it will not move. LIB HOLD

10. Edinburgh West (Christine Jardine LIB). Requires a 2.9% swing to go SNP, 6.2% to go Tory. Another easy seat to predict… If the Unionist tactical vote from 2017 unwinds over Brexit, Jardine is in trouble. If her personal vote sticks together, she isn’t. If the SNP surge in the polls is reflected in the voting, she is in trouble. This is the hardest of all 4 Scottish Liberal seats to call, because it could flip either of three ways quite easily. SNP GAIN, for now.

11. Caithness Sunderland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone LIB). Requires 3.3% swing to the SNP. A well known local Liberal candidate able to consolidate a personal vote and benefit from Unionist tactical voting, Jamie Stone is surely safe as houses here, especially against an unknown challenger. LIB HOLD

12. Glasgow South West (Chris Stephens – SNP) – Requires a 0.1% swing to Labour. Ok, so here is the thing about all of these Glasgow seats held by the SNP. As it stands, they are projected to hold them. However, the majorities in each are so small that, if by the end of the campaign it looks like Labour could be in power, then all of them will fall like ninepins. A self-fulfilling prophecy if you will. Chris Stephens is a conscientious local MP and ardent Remainer. Matt Kerr for Labour is a former postman, son of NEC member Andy, and a supporter of Universal Basic Income. The Lib Dem struggling to win back their deposit (Ben Denton-Cardew, same as in 2015) is a professional cellist and railway consultant! LAB GAIN, for now.

13. Glasgow Central (Alison Thewlis – SNP) – Requires a 3.2% swing to Labour. SNP HOLD

14. Glasgow North (Patrick Grady – SNP). Requires a 1.6% swing to Labour. LAB GAIN

15. Glasgow North West (Carol Monaghan – SNP). Requires 3.3% swing to Labour. SNP HOLD

16. Glasgow South (Stewart McDonald – SNP). Requires a 2.3% swing to Labour. SNP HOLD

17. Glasgow East (David Linden – SNP). Requires a 0.1% swing (75 votes) to go Labour. Some seats like this are so blatant (top 2, everyone else way off the place) that it almost breeds the higher chance of a party change via Unionist tactical voting. LAB GAIN

18. West Dunbartonshire (Martin Docherty – SNP). Requires a 2.6% swing to Labour. A Labour stronghold that stayed Labour in the 2016 Holyrood elections, however the swing that day was away from the Labour party. SNP HOLD

19. Motherwell and Wishaw (Marion Fellows – SNP). Requires a 0.35% swing to Labour. A key target for Labour, Jeremy Corbyn has already visited it to support PPC Angela Feeney, who also stood in 2017. Another seat where Labour might benefit from pure tactical voting as it stands, and maybe more if they enjoy a surge in the national polling. LAB GAIN

20. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus MacNeil – SNP). Requires a 3.4% swing to Labour. One of the many bits of forbidden fruit in the UK for various parties, this seat has been a Labour target for 4 elections since Angus MacNeil beat Calum MacDonald in 2005. If Angus MacNeil can survive unscathed as MP in the Western Isles and its heavily religious voters after a small incident involving a ceilidh and consensual teenagers many years ago, then he can survive pretty much anything. SNP HOLD

21. Inverclyde (Ronnie Cowan – SNP). Requires a 0.5% swing to Labour. Another top target for Labour in the Clyde Area, and another keeping its Labour candidate from 2017. This one being Martin McCluskey. I refer to my earlier comments about small swings and tactical voting trends. LABOUR GAIN

22. Edinburgh East (Tommy Sheppard – SNP) – Needs a 3.9% swing to Labour. Before Tommy Sheppard won the seat, Sheila Gilmore held it for Labour from 2010-15. Now she tries to win it back. If she did, Labour are on course for a far better night than expected. SNP HOLD

23. Dundee West (Chris Law SNP). Requires a 6.8% swing to Labour. Relatively safe seat held by recognisable looming figure. Little evidence Law is in danger in this heavily pro-SNP city. SNP HOLD

24. Glenrothes (Peter Grant SNP) - Requires a 4.1% swing to Labour. No challengers named as yet. If Labour were to win this, they’d be going for an overall majority. SNP HOLD

25. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (Stuart McDonald SNP). Requires a 4.9% swing to Labour. There was a fracking row in the seat during the summer. SNP HOLD, for now.

26. Paisley And Renfrewshire South (Mhairi Black SNP). Requires 3.1% swing to Labour. Another hard to call seat. Black has name recognition now for her many speeches, and it is four years since she sensationally ousted Dougie Alexander. Her majority was halved last time. SNP HOLD for now.

27. Airdrie and Shotts (Neil Gray SNP). Requires a 0.25% swing to Labour. Another Labour heartland that went SNP in 2015, only to swing back close in 2017. I feel like we could write that for 20 or 30 of these seats. This is why Labour are campaigning here on the Monklands Hospital. Yes, that’s an issue here too. Again, close result, depend on polls, tactical voting, yadda yadda. LAB GAIN, for now.

28. Dunfermline and West Fife (Douglas Chapman SNP) – Needs 0.8% swing to go Labour. Fascinating seat which has been held by 3 major parties inside a decade! Rachel Squire held the seat and its predecessor until her premature death in 2006, and Scots Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie held it from 2006 to 2010. Now it is in SNP hands, won in their 2015 surge, but the vote unwound considerable in 2017 and Chapman just hung on. Now we have 844 votes between Nats and Labour, and a 5% swing away is the Tory party. The Lib Dems aren’t in the conversation anymore, after the coalition, in this particular seat. Labour are standing Cara Hilton, who did so well to nobble down the majority last time out. She is vice-chair of Scottish Labour and winner of a byelection to the Scottish Parliament in 2013, in Dunfermline. The Greens are standing here, which further hurts the SNP cause. This feels like a seat which can change hands with very little changes. The small swing, and the seat being in the middle of Scottish Labours largest former fiefdom suggests a strong chance of a flip. LABOUR GAIN.

29. Livingston (Hannah Bardell SNP). Requires a 3.7% swing to Labour. Robin Cook’s old seat is one of those which saw a modest swing to Labour in 2017, and if that same swing was repeated, Labour would win the seat. The original Labour candidate stood down because the election was called on their honeymoon! Another ward where Labour are going big on the NHS. If that tactic works… As it stands, I think Bardell will hold on. SNP, for now.

30. Aberdeen North (Kirsty Blackman SNP). Requires a 5.6% swing to Labour. Held comfortably in 2017 despite trends elsewhere, and the Tory revival was limited by that part of the worlds standards. Neither the Labour or Tory vote is far ahead of the other for tactical voting to come into play. A studenty, inner city sort of a seat with council schemes (did I just describe Glasgow Govan?) this feels very safe. The Tory candidate being suspended for antisemitism probably makes it even safer. SNP HOLD

31. East Kilbride, Strathhaven and Lesmahagow (Lisa Cameron SNP). Requires a 3.6% swing to Labour. The local MP was eventually re-selected after an argument over an abortion vote in which she voted against extended rights to Northern Ireland. SNP HOLD, for now.

32. Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands SNP). Requires a 2.8% swing to Labour. SNP HOLD for now.

33. Edinburgh North and Leith (Deidre Brock SNP). Needs a 1.5% swing to Labour, and a 3.4% swing to Tories. That close 3 way nature perhaps favours Brock as it makes her unlikely to fall foul of tactical voting, but then we said that of East Renfrewshire in 2017 and look how that turned out. If the Labour vote tanks badly the Tories could well come home here. Scots Greens unlikely to change much, they stood here in 2017 also. The Renew Party are allegedly standing here, which make sense as they are up against a Remainer MP. SNP HOLD for now.

34. Falkirk (John McNally SNP) – Requires a 4.6% swing to turn Labour. The home of disgraced former MP Eric Joyce, and the whole kerfuddle about vote rigging which led to the change of rules for Labour party elections which helped Jeremy Corbyn to the leadership. Unlike other former strongholds, the Labour vote barely went up in 2017 (1000 votes), with the large swing being SNP to Tory. The Scottish Greens aren’t standing here (they did in 2017). SNP HOLD

35. Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Alan Brown SNP). Requires a 6.7% swing to Labour, and a 7.8% swing to the Tories. Brown seems safe for now as that swing looks well beyond Labour right now. SNP HOLD

36. Linlithgow and East Falkirk (Martyn Day SNP).Requires a 2.6% swing to Labour and a 3.6% swing to the Tories. Another 3 way dance in which the SNP might hold on due to lack of clear opposition. SNP HOLD

37. Lanark and Hamilton East (Angela Crawley SNP). Oh boy, the late Jimmy Hood’s old seat is a barnstormer, as 360 votes separated Crawley and the SNP in 1st place from Labour in 3rd place. The Tories were in the middle of this super marginal. Who the fuck knows whats going to happen here? Maybe the SNP take advantage of the 3 way split, maybe Labour voters turn out to push them over the line, maybe everyone turns Tory. Going with the national polling because this is a fools game. SNP HOLD, for now.

38. Dundee East (Stewart Hosie SNP) – Requires a 7.7% swing to shift Tory. Hosie is a familiar figure among the SNP, but his majority was slashed considerably during the Scots Tory wave in the last election. Even then, he holds one of the safer SNP seats. The polling evidence, such as it is, in Scotland suggests that the SNP are bouncing back in seats like this, so Hosie should increase his majority. If the opposite is true, and the Tories come close or win the seat, then they will be doing much better in Scotland than expected and be well on their way to a handsome majority. SNP HOLD

39. Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart SNP). Requires a 0.02% swing to the Tories, or 21 votes for short. The SNP were able to bus in mass activists from Dundee for a GOTV campaign last time, which proved crucial, as did the Lib Dem support holding firm, as did the Greens not standing. In 2017, the Tories picked a solid known face (Ian Duncan), in 2019 they’ve picked a random Councillor. Signs suggest SNP HOLD, for now. Pete Wishart was keyboardist in Big Country, incidentally, although he left before their breakout album The Crossing (one of the all time great Scottish rock albums, for the record). Now if only he was representing Motherwell we could chuck in a Steeltown reference here…

40. Ayrshire North and Arran (Patricia Gibson SNP). Needs a 3.9% swing to the Tories, and a 5.7% swing to Labour. SNP HOLD barring further info.

41. Edinburgh South West (Joanna Cherry SNP) – Requires a 1.1% swing to Tories, 4.4% swing to Labour. Oh boy. So, Joanna Cherry might be the victim of tactical vote, but she might be the recipient of tactical votes as such a prominent Remainer, but might lose votes due to a storm over the Gender Recognition Act (which has already claimed the Labour candidate in this seat). So feck knows where the votes will lay out. This is mostly the old Edinburgh Pentlands, the old Tory stronghold. SNP HOLD, for now.

42. Ayrshire Central (Philippa Whitford SNP). Needs a 1.4% swing to the Tories, and 5.6% to Labour. Former goalkeeper Derek Stilie is standing for the Tories. Several parts of this seat are heartland Tory (Troon and Ayr Town Centre). The local SNP MP is well regarded. Despite my own reservations, Local Tories seem convinced this is a SNP HOLD.

43. Ross Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford SNP). Needs a 7.7% swing to go Tory, and a 9.7% wing to go Lib Dem. Still annoyed by the campaign which saw off Charlie. There are of course talks of tactical operations to unseat the SNP’s Westminster leader, but the lead is, I suspect, too large and the Union split too heavy. SNP HOLD

44. Argyll and Bute (Brendan O’Hara SNP). Requires 1.4% swing to Tories. Alan Reid, Lib Dem MP from 2001 to 2015 here, is standing again, but is considerably further back (9% swing) and seems unlikely to be in the contention after he suffered considerable vote unwind in 2017. This feels like a stronger Tory prospect than some of the seats they actually hold, but Reid might well hold onto the Liberal strongholds of rural Argyllshire and if he does that then O’Hara may well hold on. A tight one likely to become even tighter but SNP HOLD for now.

45. North East Fife (Stephen Gethins SNP). Needs TWO VOTES to go Lib Dem. That’s an 0.002% swing. In 2017, the Lib Dem vote actually went down in numbers by 1000 (although it went up in vote share barely). This is solid Liberal territory, it was Menzies Campbells seat for decades, and Willie Rennie won it in the Holyrood elections. Even with the huge surge in 2015, the SNP vote managed to just get to 40%, this is not friendly territory for them, and as such unlikely to stay long in their hands. (Unlike, say Dundee West, where it is hard to see Labour win again soon…) With a potential of 16000 Unionist tactical voter to pick from (not every Scots Tory or Scots Labour is a tactical voter, in fact, many I know are fiercely tribal, but from 16k the possibility of some existing is far greater…) this will almost certainly go LIB DEM GAIN. And if it doesn’t, the Liberals are having a shite night nationwide. This is as close to an open goal gain that exists.

46. Inverness Nairn Badenoch Strathspey (Drew Hendry SNP). Requires a 4.7% swing to Tories. With Inverness becoming the fastest growing area of Scotland for comfortable retirees, this seat will turn safe Tory soon. Liberal tradition in the area was badly hurt by Danny Alexander’s run in the coalition government, with the seat giving the Liberals only 12% of the vote in 2017. Long term prospects good for the Scottish Tories, short term prospects an election too soon for them? But if I’m wrong as usual, you wont be surprised now. SNP HOLD, for now.

47. East Renfrewshire (Paul Masterton CON). Requires a 4.4% swing to SNP. Jim Murphy’s old seat was the safest Tory seat in the country when he won it in 1997, and is back in Tory hands after a short trip to the SNP from 2015 to 2017. Although that was aided by Labour picking an absolutely terrible candidate who depressed their vote. This time Kirsten Oswald (2015-17 SNP MP) aims to win back the seat, and Labour have picked a Paisley Councillor. Although Murphy was fresh off NUS Presidency when he won the seat. Right, so this seat was heavily pro-Remain, and is largely dependent on what happens around the SNP vote. That will coalesce around the 31-35% spot, and so if Paul Masterton retains the tactical vote and traditional Tories. Maybe his “I am anti-Brexit/immediately votes for all deals” stance will annoy enough voters. This seat has surprised two elections running so don’t be surprised if it bamboozles us all again. TORY HOLD for now. Oh, and the independent was to run for Change UK In the Euro elections before splitting from them. Remember Change UK? No, me neither.

48. Stirling (Stephen Kerr CON). Requires a 0.15% swing to SNP. You know how it goes, you nurse a seat for years then lose it immediately. At least, that’s what the SNP did in Stirling in 2017, aided by an election outside term time. This time, they’ve brought in MEP heavyweight Alyn Smith to target the seat that is the SNP’s top objective in this election. If the first bad news for the Tories here is Smith’s candidacy, the second is the election happening during term time (just). The Brexit Party are not standing here, which might help the Tories, but add in that the incumbent Tory is apparently unpopular, and this should be slam dunk SNP GAIN.

49. Ayr Carrick and Cumnock (vacant CON). Requires a 3% swing to SNP. Solid Tory territory, although the Tory MP Bill Grant is retiring, and the unpopular SNP predecessor Corri Wilson is not running. Ayr (toon centre) is one of the more solid Tory vote bases in Scotland, and there was a large pro-Brexit vote here too. As it stands, TORY HOLD.

50. Ochil and South Perthshire (Luke Graham CON). Requires a 3.1% swing to SNP. John Nicolson (SNP East Dunbartonshire 2015-17) is running in this seat. The place has swung quite heavily towards the Torie since 2017, but this remains one of the SNP’s easier pick ups. There is also suggestion of an anti-Tasmina vote in 2017 which will unwind. SNP GAIN, for now.

51. Aberdeen South (vacant CON). Needs a 5.3% swing to the SNP. Well this was Ross Thomsons seat until he had a little issue that forced him to be deselected. It would have been weaker for the Tories with him as a No Deal supporter with various scandals. Conservative councillor Douglas Lumsden is a far safer candidate. TORY HOLD

52. Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack CON). Requires a 5.5% swing to SNP. Richard Arkless is standing again against the Scottish Secretary. Safe Tory seat. TORY HOLD.

53. Gordon (Colin Clark CON). Requires a 2.4% swing to SNP. Vast (12%) swing from SNP to Tory here in 2017, possibly a profound anti-Salmond vote. Salmond is not here now (for obvious reasons), so does the Tory vote unwind or do we get a double incumbency factor here? (Double incumbency is when first time MPs hold on against national trends the first time they are put up for re-election. See a lot of it in 2001 and 2015…). As an expert in the region put it, nobody knows where the post-Salmond vote will go, and if they claim they do, they are wrong. If the election is about Unionism in this part of the country, the Tories wont lose that many seats. TORY HOLD

54. Angus (Kirstene Hair CON). Requires a 3.3% swing to go SNP. Not very well regarded Tory incumbent, better SNP ground game here in places like Arbroath, this is their best shot in the North. SNP GAIN, for now.

55. Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (David Mundell CON). Requires a 9.7% swing to SNP. They couldn’t get rid of Mundell in 2015, they wont now. Safe TORY HOLD.

56. Moray (Douglas Ross CON). Requires a 4.4% swing to SNP. Ross gave Angus Robertson the red card in 2017. He’s a ref, geddit? Oh never mind. SNP picking what looks to be a paper candidate suggests they don’t expect much here. TORY HOLD

57. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine (Andrew Bowie CON). Requires 4.3% swing to SNP. Safe Tory territory. TORY HOLD

58. Banff and Buchan (David Duguid CON). Requires 4.5% swing to SNP. Lib Dems lost their deposit in 2017, and Labour just hung on in 2015 to theirs. Could well be a “everyone loses their deposit except the Tories and SNP” seat, and if that’s the case, the Tory vote seems more likely to go upwards (and it 48% last time). There isn’t much anti-Tory vote to squeeze left, so is reliant on a Tory to SNP swing, and the polls suggest little of that so far. TORY HOLD

59. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (John Lamont CON). Requires a 10.6% swing to SNP. Safest Tory seat in Scotland. TORY HOLD.

North East England

1. Newcastle Central (Chi Onwurah LAB). Requires a 20.2% swing to Tories. Biggest question is if this will be the first seat to declare again? LABOUR HOLD

2. Newcastle East (Nick Brown LAB). Requires a 23.2% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

3. Middlesbrough (Andy McDonald LAB). Requires a 19.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR HOLD.

4. Gateshead (Ian Mearns LAB). Requires a 20.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD.

5. Easington (Graham Morris LAB). Requires a 20.5% swing to the Tories. LABOUR HOLD

6. Jarrow (vacant LAB). Requires a 20.1% swing to the Tories. Stephen Hepburn was deselected in early November. The most interesting thing to happen in the dozen or so super safe Labour seats in the North East. LABOUR HOLD

7. Tyneside North (Mary Glindon LAB). Needs a 18.6% swing to Tories. Safe as houses. LAB HOLD

8. South Shields (Emma Lewell-Buck LAB). Requires a 17.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

9. Washington and Sunderland West (Sharon Hodgson LAB). Requires a 15.9% swing to Tories. Another super safe Labour seat where if the Tories came close to winning, they’d be winning 450+ seats across the country. LABOUR HOLD

10. Durham North (Kevan Jones LAB). Needs a 14.9% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

11. Houghton and Sunderland South (Bridget Phillipson LAB). Requires 14.9% swing to Tories. Phillipson will win, and then we wont hear of her again until next election night, as usual. LABOUR HOLD.

12. City of Durham (Roberta Blackman-Woods LAB). Requires 12.8% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

13. Blaydon (Liz Twist LAB). Requires a 14% swing to the Tories. Seat had some curiousities running in 2017, like the UK Libertarians, and the Lisabela Marschild the Space Navies Party candidate. LABOUR HOLD

14. Sunderland Central (Julie Elliot LAB). Requires an 11.1% swing to the Tories. Might be considerably closer due to Brexit Party issues. LABOUR HOLD

15. Wansbeck (Ian Lavery LAB). Requires a 14.1% swing to the Tories. LABOUR HOLD

16. Tynemouth (Alan Campbell LAB). Requires a 10.3% swing to the Tories. LABOUR HOLD

17. Newcastle North (Catherine McKinnell LAB). Requires a 10.8% swing to the Tories. LABOUR HOLD

18. Stockton North (Alex Cunningham LAB). Requires a 10.2% swing to the Tories. LABOUR HOLD

19. Redcar (Anna Turley LAB). Requires an 11.3% swing to the Tories. Has been the sight of same insane swings in the past, but that was on local concern. The closure of the local steelworks causing a massive swing against Labour and then a considerable unwind in consecutive elections. A reminder of how quickly things can change even in safe seats with the right conditions. LABOUR HOLD, for now.

20. Blyth Valley (vacant LAB). Requires 9.3% swing to the Tories. Ronnie Campbell standing down after 32 years, but his seat should stay Labour unless there is a vast landslide. Apparently the Labour candidate is a popular local councillor who is the widow of an equally popular late Blyth Valley council leader. LABOUR HOLD

21. Hartlepool (Mike Hill LAB). Requires a 9.2% swing to the Tories. Once tipped as the place that would vote Labour if they put up a donkey, Hartlepool is now one to watch as there is belief out there that a considerable Brexit Party vote can tip the seat Tory. UKIP got 28% of the vote here in 20#15, and the Brexit Party co-founder Richard Tice is standing here. I’m tempted to be reminded of similar circumstances in Grimsby in 2015 when Labour held on through the middle of the Tory and UKIP block. LABOUR HOLD, unconfidently.

22. Durham North West (Laura Pidcock LAB). Requires a 9.2% swing to the Tories. The Labour vote has been relatively solid here for decades, so likely to remain so short of catastrophic events for Labour. LABOUR HOLD

23. Sedgefield (Phil Wilson LAB). Requires a 7.3% swing to the Tories. A seat they want as a trophy as it were Blair’s seat. As in 2017, the papers call this a probable Tory gain. But I feel they will concentrate more on the winnable seats below? LABOUR HOLD

24. Darlington (Jenny Chapman LAB). Requires a 3.7% swing to Tories. This is the sort of seat the Tories will be winning to get their overall majority but it was that in 2017 and 2015 too, so I can only conclude that Jenny Chapman is quite popular locally. What helps is that Darlington itself is quite working class Labour and that the Tory friendly areas of the council (which trashed Labour this year) aren’t in this constituency! Despite that, on current polling, this will surely go TORY GAIN.

25. Stockton South (Paul Williams LAB). Reuqires a 0.8% swing to Tories. Almost certain Tory gain in current polling. TORY GAIN

26. Bishop Auckland (Helen Goodman LAB). Requires a 0.6% swing to the Tories. This feels like the most likely Labour seat in the area to go Tory, yet depends on who the Liberals take the most votes off if they come back here. TORY GAIN for now.

27. Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East (Simon Clarke CON). Requires a 1.1% swing to Labour. The sort of seat that could change hands if we are all reading the polls wrong or if there is a sudden unexpected Corbyn swing, but as it stands TORY HOLD

28. Hexham (Guy Opperman CON). Needs a 10% swing to Labour. Only safe Tory seat in the north East. TORY HOLD

29. Berwick upon Tweed (Anne Marie Trevelyan CON). Requires a 13.9% swing to Labour. A Liberal stronghold under Sir Alan Beith, this went considerably out of their hands in 2015. Now they sit third (15.2% swing), and the only thing that stops me saying safe Tory hold is that maybe the stronger Liberal vote in this area of late is concentrated? That’s the sort of thing you can’t prove until election night of course. TORY HOLD

North West England

1. Manchester Gorton (Mohammed Khan LAB). Requires a 34.5% swing to the Tories. LAB HOLD

2. Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden LAB). Requires a 38.6% swing to the Tories. LAB HOLD

3. Liverpool West Derby (vacant LAB). Requires a 36.9% swing to the Tories. LAB HOLD

4. Liverpool Riverside (vacant LAB). Requires a 37.5% swing to the Tories. LAB HOLD

5. Knowsley (George Howarth LAB). Requires a 38.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

6. Bootle (Peter Dowd LAB). Requires a 36% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

7. Liverpool Wavertree (vacant LAB). Requires a 33.8% swing to the Tories. LAB HOLD

8. Manchester Central (Lucy Powell LAB). Requires a 31.6% swing to the Tories. LAB HOLD

9. Manchester Withington (Jeff Smith LAB). Requires a 27.9% swing to the Tories. Former Lib Dem MP John Leech is standing here but the gap seems too far for them. Also a lack of a distinct united anti-Labour issue like Iraq. LAB HOLD

10. Blackburn (Kate Hollern LAB). Requires a 21.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD.

11. Garston and Halewood (Maria Eagle LAB). Requires a 30.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

12. Birkenhead (vacant LAB). Requires a 29.7% swing to Tories, 38.5% swing to Frank Field. Despite the intrigue set out by the departing former Labour MP, LABOUR HOLD

13. Blackley and Broughton (Graham Stringer LAB). Requires a 24.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD.

14. Preston (Mark Hendrick LAB). Requires a 22.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

15. Halton (Derek Twigg LAB). Requires a 25.7% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

16. Wallasey (Angela Eagle LAB). Requires a 24.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

17. Oldham West and Royton (Jim McMahon LAB). Requires a 18.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

18. Stretford and Urmston (Kate Green LAB). Requires a 19.7% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

19. St Helens South and Whiston (Marie RImmer LAB). Requires a 23% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

20. Salford and Eccles (Rebecca Long-Bailey LAB). Requires a 20.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

21. Rochdale (Tony Lloyd LAB). Requires a 14.8% swing to Tories. A lot of Tories can win here talk among them on social media – if they did, they’d be on course for 450+ seats. LABOUR HOLD

22. Bolton South East (Yasmin Qureshi LAB). Requires a 15.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

23. Stockport (Ann Coffey LAB). Requires a 17.4% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

24. Wythenshaw and Sale East (Mike Kane LAB). Requires a 16.3% swing to Tories. lAB HOLD

25. Denton and Reddish (Andrew Gwynne LAB). Requires a 17.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

26. St Helens North (Conor McGinn LAB). Requires 18.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

27. Wigan (Lisa Nandy LAB). Requires a 16.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

28. Ashton under Lyne (Angela Rayner LAB). Requires a 14.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

29. Sefton Central (Bill Easterson LAB). Requires a 15% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

30. Makerfield (Yvonne Fovargue LAB). Requires a 14.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

31. Oldham East and Saddleworth (Debbie Abrahams LAB). Requires a 8.7% swing to Tories. If you believe The Times, this seat has turned from Labour. But if it has, they are utterly fucked. LABOUR HOLD.

32. Ellesmere Port and Neston (Justin Madders LAB). Requires an 11.2% swing to Tories..LABOUR HOLD

33. Stalybridge and Hyde (Jonathan Reynolds LAB). Requires a 9.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

34. Lancashire West (Rosie Cooper LAB). Requires a 10.8% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

35. Worsley and Eccles South (Barbara Keeley LAB) Requires a 9.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

36. City of Chester (Chris Matheson LAB). Requires a 8.2% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

37. Wirral South (Alison McGovern LAB). Requires a 9.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

38. Leigh (Jo Platt LAB). Requires a 10.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD. Yes, there really is little to say about most of these very safe seats. For the Tories example, look to Anglia and the shires…

39. Warrington North (vacant LAB). Requires a 9.9% swing to Tories..MP Helen Jones has retired. Warrington Labour have been in a state of disarray for a while. LABOUR HOLD

40. Hyndburn (Graham Jones LAB). Requires a 6.5% swing to Tories. The Tories appear to have selected a paper candidate here, which suggests their confidence. LABOUR HOLD

41. Lancaster and Fleetwood (Cat Smith LAB). Requires a 7.3% swing to Tories. Cat Smith was regarded as highly endangered in 2017 but won a substantially increased majority. With the Brexit Party (and UKIP, who aren’t standing) retaining support in the Tory areas of the seat, and Lancaster heavily onside, LAB HOLD.

42. Burnley (Julie Cooper LAB). Requires a7.9% swing to Tories. Gordon Birtwistle is standing again for the Lib Dems on a local pro-Brexit platform, which *might* split the pro-Brexit vote three ways? Even in the EU elections the Lib Dems struggled here, and while the Labour vote was slashed in the locals they still won twice the number of the 2nd place party (The Greens!). In fact, it’s an odd seat where Best for Britain suggests a tactical vote for Labour! (Deliberate facetiousness before the fans reply…) LABOUR HOLD

43. Heywood and Middleton (Liz McInnes LAB). Requires a 7.7% swing to Tories. Matthew Goodwin thinks we saw a trailer of this election in the 2014 byelection, when the Labour party campaigned on NHS and held on despite a huge swing to the Nigel Farage Party of Choice That Week. LABOUR HOLD, unconfidently.

44. Bolton North East (David Crausby LAB). Requires a 4.4% swing to Tories. One of those hard to call ones down to local MP. Of course if Labour hold enough of these… As it stands, TORY GAIN, equally unconfidently.

45. Bury South (Ivan Lewis LAB). Requires a 5.9% swing to Tories. Ivan Lewis stood down from the Labour party and is standing as an independent. I’m pretty sure that tips this seat. TORY GAIN.

46. Bury North (James Frith LAB). Requires a 4.6% swing to Tories. The sort of seat the Tories will be winning for an overall majority, complicated by a popular local MP and Brexit Party standing. The particular area seemed to be trending away from the Tories in 2010 and 2015 despite their holds? On a landslide night it goes, but if it’s a regional night, LAB HOLD

47. Chorley (Lindsay Hoyle SPEAKER). Brexit and Greens standing. SPEAKER HOLD

48. Wirral West (Margaret Greenwood LAB). Requires a 6.1% swing to Tories. This Remain voting area is a heavy Tory target, according to The Spectator. They are heavily trailing Ian Austin’s anti-Labour interview here. TORY GAIN imo on current trends.

49. Blackpool South (Gordon Marsden LAB). Requires a 3.6% swing to Tories. Another seat in that part of the world where the Tories look overwhelming favourites. TORY GAIN.

50. Weaver Vale (Mike Amesbury LAB). Requires a 3.9% swing to Tories. Very marginal. TORY GAIN on current trend.

51. Workington (Sue Hayman LAB). Requires a 4.7% swing to Tories. The home of the Workington Man! Of course since then the press haven’t gone much for that, as it appears the big Tory majority will be forged in the Midlands swing seats like any big election usually is…If you believe that constituency poll (and Survation have a good rep, but constituency polls don’t), then the Brexit Party are taking a huge chunk of the Labour vote and giving the Tories the seat. (Yes, I am aware of the churn involved…) TORY GAIN

52. Warrington South (Faisal Rashid LAB) Requires a 2.1% swing to Tories. Warrington Guardian predicts a Tory win but uses Electoral Calculus to suggest it! The Tories are running with the Referendum Avoidance tactic here as in Scotland. TORY GAIN.

53. Barrow and Furness (vacant LAB). Requires a 0.2% swing to Tories. The sort of seat that only a John Woodcock type could have won against the grain for Labour in the current climate. Highly linked to the nuclear industry. That and Brexit is moving West Cumbria Tory wise, but if the Tories can’t win this open goal of a seat now, they’re not winning the election. TORY GAIN.

54. Crewe and Nantwich (Laura Smith LAB). Requires a 0.05% swing to Tories (48 votes). Look at the swing, and the Tories held the seat for a decade. With Brexit standing, this is another open goal for them. TORY GAIN.

55. Pendle (Andrew Stephenson CON). Requires a 1.5% swing to Labour. The Lib Dem candidate (Gordon Lishman, Age Concern director) first stood for election in 1974! Might be close, but TORY HOLD for now.

56. Bolton West (Chris Green CON). Requires a 0.9% swing to Labour. If there’s any sort of local swing to the Labour party this seat can change hands. As it stands, TORY HOLD.

57. Morecambe and Lunesdale (David Morris CON). Requires a 1.6% swing to Labour. Odd that a seat with so many Tory voters is so marginal, but unlikely to be so after this election. The one cat among the pigeons is that the Lib Dem vote went en masse to the Tories in 2015, but even with a strong Lib Dem performance the Tories won the seat in 2010… TORY HOLD

58. Carlisle (John Stevenson CON). Requires a 3% swing to Labour. Boundary changes shifted this Tory wards, the Green vote has been eaten by Labour already, TORY HOLD.

59. Rossendale and Darwen (Jake Berry CON). Requires a 3.2% swing to Labour. Suggested it might be closer than expected, but Leave area, Labour slip, TORY HOLD

60. Blackpool North and Cleveleys (Paul Maynard CON). Requires a 2.5% swing to Labour. Again, feels like an area moving Tory-wards. TORY HOLD.

61. Copeland (Trudy Harrison CON). Requires a 1.9% swing to Labour. This was Labour until an early 2017 byelection, one of the 20 million attempts to get rid of Corbyn by the PLP. Not long to go now, chaps. Green members telling folk to vote Labour in this seat, and the Labour candidate is anti-HS2. TORY HOLD

62. Southport (Damien Moore CON). Requires a 3.1% swing to Labour, 6.2% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

63. Altrincham and Sale West (Graham Brady CON). Requires a 6.1% swing to Labour, 22.7% swing to Lib Dems. The odd decision of Angela Smith to run here (and then moan about not getting 22k for losing) pretty much seals the former 1922 Cmme chairs return. TORY HOLD.

64. Ribble South (Seema Kennedy CON). Requires a 6.8% swing to Labour. Which doesn’t seem likely right now. TORY HOLD

65. Macclesfield (David Rutley CON). Requires a 7.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

66. Congleton (Fiona Bruce CON). Requires an 11.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

67. Hazel Grove (William Wragg CON). Requires a 6.3% swing to Lib Dems. Some think this is a better Lib Dem target than Cheadle,, but imo they’ll win both or neither. Local councillor Liza Smart has a profile in the area and her campaign appears to be going well. LIB DEM GAIN.

68. Eddisbury (Antoinette Sandbach LIB). Requires a 11.7% swing to Labour, 28.5% to Antoinette Sandbach. Former Tory MP Edward Timpson standing here, and will almost certainly win. TORY RE-GAIN.

69. Cheadle (Mary Robinson CON). Requires a 4.2% swing to Lib Dems. A former seat of theirs and the Lib Dems top target in the North West, being heavily leafletted. Depends on the Lib Dems ability to squeeze the Labour vote, but if they can’t do it here where they have roots, it doesn’t speak for their chances across other spreads of the country. (The Tory vote is relatively static so Lib Dems need over 40% of the vote to stand a chance.) LIB DEM GAIN, but not confidently.

70. Wyre and Preston North (Ben Wallace CON). Requires a 11.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

71. Ribble Valley (Nigel Evans CON). Requires a 11.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

72. Fylde (Mark Menzies CON). Requires a 12.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

73. Tatton (Esther McVey CON). Requires a 15.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

74. Penrith and the Border (vacant CON). Requires a 17.1% swing to Labour. Even with the fall out over Rory Stewart’s deselection, TORY HOLD

75. Westmorland and Lonsdale (Tim Farron LIB). Requires a 0.75% (777 votes) swing to Tories. Tim Farron had a right scare last time round. Each recent election has a big name shock with an echo of the previous election. Jacqui Smith held in 2005, lost in 2010. Ed Balls held on in 2010, lost in 2015. Nick Clegg held in 2015, lost in 2017. Each time the latter time wasn’t considered as risky for them. I expect this trend to continue somewhere but with other candidates (Amber Rudd) retiring, Tim Farron appears the best bet. (Unless IDS or Boris Johnson want to give us all an early Christmas present?) Since 2017 he was been quiet nationally, concentrating on being a local MP. Both main parties seem confident about this one. TORY GAIN imo.

Yorkshire and Humbershire 

1. Bradford West (Naz Shah LAB). Requires a 24.1% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

2. Bradford East (Imran Husain LAB). Requires a 22.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

3. Sheffield Central (Paul Blomfield LAB). Requires a 29% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

4. Leeds Central (Hilary Benn LAB). Requires a 24.8 % swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

5. Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough (Gill Furniss LAB). Requires a 22.9% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

6. York Central (Rachael Maskell LAB). Requires a 17.5% swing to Tories. lAB HOLD

7. Leeds West (Rachel Reeves LAB). Requires a 18.9% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

8. Leeds North East (Fabian Hamilton LAB). Requires a 16.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

9. Hull North (Diana Johnson LAB). Requires a 19.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

10. Leeds East (Richard Burgon LAB). Requires a 15.4% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

11. Huddersfield (Barry Sheerman LAB). Requires a 13.7% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

12. Barnsley Central (Dan Jarvis LAB). Requires a 19.9% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

13. Rotherham (Sarah Champion LAB). Requires a 15% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

14. Sheffield Heeley (Louise Haigh LAB). Requires a 15.7% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

15. Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey LAB). Requires a 16.9% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

16. Sheffield South East (Clive Betts LAB). Requires a 13.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

17. Doncaster North (Ed Miliband LAB). Requires a 16.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

18. Barnsley East (Stephanie Peacock LAB). Requires a 16.3% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

19. Hull East (Karl Turner LAB). Requires a 14.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

20. Normanton Pontefract Castleford (Yvette Cooper LAB). Requires a 14.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

21. Hull West and Hessle (Emma Hardy LAB). Requires a 11.6% swing to Tories. Decent chance of a Brexit deposit hold here. LAB HOLD

22. Batley and Spen (Tracy Brabin LAB). Requires a 8.4% swing to Tories. The Times suggested Labour are in trouble here too. I liked the OAP who said she voted Socialist but Corbyn wasn’t her type of Socialist – probably too right wing, that Jeremy. This seat has a 3 way Brexit vote split – Tory, Brexit Party, a former Brexit Party member who was stood down and is now running as an independent. That surely has to help the Labour party here. LAB HOLD.

23. Doncaster Central (Rosie winterton LAB). Requires a 12.6% swing to Tories. Should be LAB HOLD.

24. Bradford South (Judith Cummins LAB). Requires a 8.2% swing to Tories. Little of note, could be LAB HOLD.

25. Leeds North West (Alex Sobol LAB). Requires a 4.6% swing to Lib Dems. Really depends on how deep that Lab to Lib shift is nationwide. If it holds, LIB GAIN.

26. Hemsworth (Jon Trickett LAB). Requires a 11.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD.

27. Halifax (Holly Lynch LAB). Requires a 6.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD, just.

28. Dewsbury (Paula Sherrif LAB). Requires a 2.9% swing to Tories. So close that unless the national trend changes, TORY GAIN.

29. Sheffield Hallam (vacant LAB). Requires a 1.9% swing to Lib Dems. You’ve all seen the Jared O’Mara show. If the Lib Dems can’t win this seat back, they’re hopeless. LIB DEM GAIN.

30. Scunthorpe (Nic Dakin LAB). Requires a 4.3% swing to Tories. Highly depressed area voted big for Leave, Brexit standing, Tory target. TORY GAIN as things stand.

31. Great Grimsby (Melanie Onn LAB). Requires a 3.6% swing to Tories. Austin Mitchell said Grimsby would vote Labour if… well, let’s just say forever. Melanie Onn has been very pro-Brexit, but am not sure that’ll save her here. TORY GAIN.

32. Don Valley (Caroline Flint LAB). Requires a 5.6% swing to Tories. Caroline Flint has actually increased her vote share three elections on the trot, no matter the national picture or who stands against her. With over 50% of the vote in 2017, I think she might well hold on here. LAB HOLD.

33. Wakefield (Mary Creagh LAB). Requires a 2.4% swing to Tories. Another Tory target from 2015 and 2017. Creagh is lower profile these days than in 2015-16, but her doggedness as an election fighter can’t be overlooked. A candidate to hold on against the swing, short of a landslide. LAB HOLD

34. Keighley (John Grogan LAB). Requires a 0.25% (249 votes) swing to Tories. A seat that has changed hands 11 times since World War 2. It shifted surprisingly in 2017, it will likely shift back to the Tories here. TORY GAIN.

35. Colne Valley (Thelma Walker lAB). Requires a 0.75% swing to Tories. A rematch of the main candidates from 2017 when former teacher Walker unexpectedly won. Weirdly not only did the Lab vote hold up better in the past two locals, but it also did – contextually – in the Euros. The Yorkshire Party and UKIP are also standing here, splitting the pro-Brexit vote in theory. This is one of those seats where it being too close to call would spell doom for the Tories if not for their gains way up the field here. Unexpectedly LAB HOLD for now.

36. Rother Valley (vacant LAB). Requires a 3.9% swing to Tories. Kevin Barron retires after 36 years. The Tories have picked an odd choice (London councillor) for a key seat, but then the Labour candidate is apparently quite marmite among their members too. The sort of seat Boris will win if he wins a majority. TORY GAIN.

37. Penistone and Stocksbridge (vacant LAB). Requires a 1.4% swing to Tories. Lib Dems fighting hard here, Brexit Party standing, who knows the result? TORY GAIN for now.

38. Pudsey (Stuart Andrew CON). Requires a 0.3% swing (331 votes) to Labour. Demographics and likely Lib Dem revival surely put this out of reach. TORY HOLD.

39. Calder Valley (Craig Whittaker CON). Requires a 0.5% swing (609 votes) to Labour. Three main parties and an old school Liberal here – will that split the Lib Dem vote? Allegedly unpopular MP which suggests any repeat of 2017 might see this fall to Labour. That looks a long way off though. TORY HOLD.

40. Morley and Outwood (Andrea Jenkyns CON). Requires a 2% swing to Labour. The local gossip seems to expect an increased majority for Jenkyns. TORY HOLD.

41. Shipley (Philip Davies CON). Requires a 4.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

42. Scarborough and Whitby (Robert Goodwill CON). Requires a 3.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

43. Outer York (Julian Sturdy CON). Requires a 7.2% swing to Labour. The change here seems to be Lab to Lib Dem. TORY HOLD

44. Elmet and Rothwell (Alec Shelbrooke CON). Requires a 8.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

45. Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers CON). Requires a 10.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

46. Beverly and Holderness (Graham Stuart CON). Requires a 12.6% swing to Labour.TORY HOLD

47. Selby and Ainsty (Nigel Adams CON). Requires a 12.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

48. Brigg and Goole (Andrew Percy CON). Requires a 13.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

49. East Yorkshire (Greg Knight CON). Requires a 13.9% swing to Labour TORY HOLD

50. Haltemprice and Howden (David Davis CON). Requires a 14.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

51. Harrogate and Knaresborough (Andew Jones CON). Requires a 16% swing to Lib Dems. This and Outer York were touted as Lib Dem gains back when they had 20% of the national vote, but seem highly unlikely now. TORY HOLD.

52. Thirsk and Malton (Kevin Hollinrake CON). Requires a 17% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

53. Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith CON). Requires a 17.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

54. Richmond (Rishi Sunak CON). Requires a 20.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

Wales 

1. Rhondda (Chris Bryant LAB). Requires a 20.9% swing to Plaid. LABOUR HOLD

2. Aberavon (Stephen Kinnock LAB). Requires a 25.2% swing to Tories.LABOUR HOLD

3. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (Gerald Jones LAB). Requires a 24.4% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

4. Blaenau Gwent (Nick Smith LAB). Requires a 18.9% swing to Plaid. LABOUR HOLD

5. Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens LAB). Requires a 21.3% swing to Tories.LABOUR HOLD

6. Cynon Valley (vacant LAB). Requires a 20.8% swing to Tories.LABOUR HOLD

7. Ogmore (Chris Elmore LAB). Requires a 18.7% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

8. Swansea East (Carolyn Harris LAB). Requires a 18.8% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

9. Cardiff South and Penarth (Stephen Doughty LAB). Requires a 14.7% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

10. Neath (Christina Rees LAB). Requires a 16.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

11. Islwyn (Chris Evans LAB). Require a 15.8% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

12. Cardiff West (Kevin Brennan LAB). Requires a 13.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

13. Caerphilly (Wayne David LAB). Requires a 14.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

14. Llanelli (Nia Griffith LAB). Requires a 14.9% swing to Tories. No Greens or Lib Dems here probably help Griffith out. LAB HOLD.

15. Swansea West (Geraint Davies LAB). Requires a 14.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

16. Pontypridd (vacant LAB). Requires a 14.4% swing to Tories. Owen Smith is standing down. Sad story of the Lib Dem candidate here, who has crowdsourced for £2500 to campaign here, and raised £130 in November so far. Well, I say Lib Dem, they stood down, but he didn’t. LAB HOLD

17. Torfaen (Nick Thomas-Symonds LAB) Requires a 13.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

18. Newport East (Jessica Mordern LAB). Requires a 10.9% swing to Tories. Newport seems to be a key target for the Tories, but this seat is rather safer? LAB HOLD

19. Ynys Mon (Albert Owen LAB). Requires a 7.1% swing to Tories, 7.3% swing to Plaid. The Tories randomly selected Chris Davies for this seat before unselecting him. This seat has a tendency to change hands on retirement, and if so, Plaid might win here. Labour have picked a Welsh speaker with local parents, which might be crucial in a local constituency. LAB HOLD for now.

20. Newport West (Ruth Jones lab). Requires a 6.5% swing to Tories. Sort of new territory here after the sad death of Paul Flynn earlier this year. A big Tory target in Wales, but is there perhaps too ingrained an anti-Tory vote in seats like this? LAB HOLD for now.

21. Bridgend (Madeline Moon LAB). Requires a 5.9% swing to Tories. Another short swing seat where the local MP has dug in before, and might avoid a loss. If Labour do lose here, it’s going to be a huge loss for them nationally. LAB HOLD.

22. Clwyd South (Susna Elan Jones LAB). Requires a 5.8% swing to Tories. 50/50 too close to call territory, as both sides squashed Plaid and UKIP in 2017. TORY GAIN for now.

23. Alyn and Deeside (Mark Tami LAB). Requires a 5.9% swing to Tories. Always been Labour. Will it be in 30 days time? LAB HOLD tentatively.

24. Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin LAB). Requires a 4% swing to Tories. Another low marginal the Labour might hold on to? These seats all feel like the Scottish Tory marginals – low swings needed, but the roots underneath are fairly dug in. Now watch me look daft and see Welsh Labour and Scots Tories both destroyed on the night. LAB HOLD.

25. Delyn (David Hanson LAB). Requires a 5.4% swing to Tories. For such a close marginal the Tories seem downbeat about their chances. LAB HOLD then, prepared to look daft as usual.

26. Vale of Clwyd (Chris Ruane LAB). Requires a 3.1% swing to Tories. UKIP took a big swing from Labour here in 2015 so if that’s repeated with the Brexit Party… TORY GAIN.

27. Gower (Tonia Antoniazzi LAB). Requires a 3.6% swing to Tories. Labour chances perhaps helped by the extreme views of the Tory candidate on folk on benefits. LAB HOLD but unconvincingly as this seat is starting to be retirement central.

28. Wrexham (vacant LAB). Requires 2.6% swing to Tories. Ian Lucas is retiring. Vacant seat, tight marginal, usual recipe for a change. I’d say whoever wins this seat wins Number 10, but then something odd like a Plaid victory will happen. TORY GAIN.

29. Arfon (Hywel Williams PC). Requires a 0.15% swing to Labour. Now this is a weird one. Lib Dems standing down in such a small swing seat must surely help Labour? LAB GAIN.

30. Ceredigion (Ben Lake PC). Requires a 0.15% swing to Lib Dems, 4.5% swing to Labour, 5.4% swing to Tories. Bit of a surprise Lib Dems lost this ultra marginal in 2017, and they seem odds on favourites to win the seat back here. What DO Plaid gain from their deal? LIB DEM GAIN

31. Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Liz Roberts PC). Requires an 8% swing to Tories. Brexit candidate here used to stand for the Llais Gwynedd splinter from Plaid, but even so this should remain their safest seat. PC HOLD.

32. Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Jonathan Edwards PLAID). Requires a 4.8% swing to Labour, 6.5% swing to Tories. Another relatively safe PC seat. PC HOLD.

33. Preseli Pembrokeshire (Stephen Crabb CON). Requires a 0.35% swing to Labour. Crabbes popularity vs Corbyns popularity? Feels a TORY HOLD for now.

34. Aberconwy (vacant CON). Requires a 1% swing to Labour. At present time, TORY HOLD.

35. Vale of Glamorgan (Alun Cairns CON) – Needs a 2.1% swing to Labour. It’s been an absolutely brilliant campaign for Alun Cairns so far. Forced to resign from his job as Welsh Secretary after claims he had known about an aide sabotaging a rape trial. Then Plaid and Lib Dems pulled out of the seat, as part of the Remain Alliance to help the Greens. It seems more likely to help the Labour Party in their 40th target seat. LABOUR GAIN

36. Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (Simon Hart CON). Requires a 3.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

37. Clwyd West (David Jones CON). Requires a 4.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD.

38. Monmouth (David Davies CON). Requires an 8.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

39. Montgomeryshire (vacant CON) Requires a 13.3% swing to Lib Dems. The Lib Dems seem to have gone too far backwards in their once stronghold here. TORY HOLD.

40. Brecon and Radnorshire (Jane Dodds LIB). Requires a 9.7% swing to the Lib Dems (by-election not included). Dodds has done a lot of appearances in the seat since her win in August. Usually a by-election so close to a general has the winner of the former win again in the latter, but that didn’t happen for Sarah Olney in 2017. Feels a tough ask for the Libs to hold on here. TORY RE-GAIN.

West Midlands 

1. Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne LAB). Requires a 33.5% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

2. Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood LAB) Requires a 34.8% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

3. Birmingham Hall Green (vacant LAB). Requires a 31.2% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

4. Birmingham Perry Barr (Khalid Mahmood LAB). Requires a 20.8% swing to Tories.LABOUR HOLD

5. Warley (John Spellar LAB). Requires a 20.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

6. Birmingham Yardley (Jess Philips LAB). Requires a 16.6% swing to Tories, 17.6% swing to Lib Dems. I think this majority might be slashed if local events become more of a thing but for now, LABOUR HOLD

7. Coventry North East (Colleen Fletcher LAB). Requires a 16.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

8. Birminghham Selly Oak (Steve McCabe LAB). Requires a 15.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

9. Walsall South (Valerie Vaz LAB). Requires a 10.1% swing to Tories. Strong Labour presence, with Brexit party votes eating into the Tories. LAB HOLD.

10. Birmingham Erdington (Jack Dromey LAB). Requires a 9.8% swing to Tories. Labour thought it’d be close in 2017 and Dromey instead got a whopping majority. Pretty sure this is a LAB HOLD.

11. Wolverhampton South East (Pat McFadden LAB). Requires a 11.8% swing to Tories. Should still be relatively safe. LAB HOLD.

12. Birmingham Egbaston (Preet Gill LAB). Requires a 7.9% swing to Tories. Seat’s majority is steadily increasing this decade. LAB HOLD

13. West Bromwich East (vacant LAB). Requires a 9.9% swing to Tories. Tom Watson stood down and Ibrahim Dogus is hoping to replace him. Brexit Party may take votes off the Tories, but the presence of George Galloway may prove a nuisance yet again to his former party. LAB HOLD for now.

14. Coventry South (vacant LAB). Requires a 8.5% swing to Tories. Retirement of the long term incumbent and the selection of a… curious replacement puts this seat at deep risk. TORY GAIN.

15. Coventry North West (vacant LAB). Requires a 8.6% swing to Tories. Lots of doom in gloom in Coventry and the feeling if 1 seat goes… TORY GAIN.

16. Stoke Central (Gareth Snell LAB). Requires a 5.9% swing to Tories. Perhaps safer than it looks – Snell is very good at the old Get Out The Vote campaign, especially with students. The Brexit party have not selected their best candidate (though the party will take votes off both main parties), and the Lib Dems main organiser in the seat sadly died last year. LAB HOLD.

17. Wolverhampton North East (Emma Reynolds LAB). Requires a 6.3% swing to Tories. Could go Tory in a landslide but the Brexit Party will likely help Reynolds hold on. LAB HOLD

18. West Bromwich West (Adrian Bailey LAB). Requires a 6.2% swing to Tories. It’d be a surprise if the Tories won here given Labour dominance of politics at all levels here, and would be sign of a Tory landslide. LAB HOLD FOR NOW.

19. Birmingham Northfield (Richard Burden LAB). Requires a 5.3% swing to Tories. If the Tories can’t win here, a seat almost designed for the Boris Message to appeal to, then the entire thing has fallen on deaf ears in large chunks of the Labour defence. TORY GAIN.

20. Wolverhampton South West (Eleanor Smith LAB). Requires a 2.6% swing to Tories. A seat which seems to be trending towards Labour in recent elections (a mirror image of Walsall North). LAB HOLD for now.

21. Stoke North (Ruth Smeeth LAB). Requires a 2.8% swing to Tories. A 50/50 call seat, but Smeeth is another good local campaigner which may count for the necessary few crucial votes. LAB HOLD for now.

22. Warwick and Leamington (matt Western LAB). Requires a 1.1% swing to Tories. On swing and national trend, Tory gain. On studenty turnout and Remain vote in 2016, Tory loss. On the 2017 Labour coalition of students, working class, and Liberal Greens falling apart completely here, TORY GAIN. But a tough one to call.

23. Dudley North (Ian Austin IND). Requires a 0.05% swing to Tories, 23.3% swing to Ian Austin. Labour MP quit the party, is standing an an independent, and is basically telling the nation not to vote Labour. Labour have more chance of winning Uxbridge, Tatton and Ayr than they do of holding here, which is to say sod all. TORY GAIN.

24. Newcastle under Lyme (vacant LAB). Requires a 0.05% (30 votes) swing to Tories. Paul Farrelly’s retirement, the trend and the swing all say after a century of Labour occupation, TORY GAIN.

25. Stoke South (Jack Brereton CON). Requires a 0.8% swing (663 votes) to Labour. Trending. TORY HOLD.

26. Telford (Lucy Allan CON). Requires a 0.8% (720 votes) swing to Labour. A marginal seat in which the local NHS is a huge issue and the new Labour council are apparently quite popular, this could be the type of seat Labour win if they can buck the trend. As now, TORY HOLD.

27. Worcester (Robin Walker CON). Requires a 2.5% swing to Labour. Worcester Man? Hah. TORY HOLD for now.

28. Walsall North (Eddie Hughes CON). Requires a 3.4% swing to Labour. Double incumbency, a seat which did fall to the culture war stuff in 2017, if Labour can win this one back they’re going for the majority. TORY HOLD.

29. Nuneaton (Marcus Jones CON). Requires a 5.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

30. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (James Morris CON). Requires a 5.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

31. Shrewsbury and Atcham (Daniel Kawczynski CON). Requires a 5.7% swing to Labour. Labour running to “save the local hospital”. TORY HOLD.

32. Stafford (Jeremy Lefroy CON). Requires a 7.5% swing to Labour. Another seat where it feels like Labour already did their best in 2017. TORY HOLD.

33. Stourbridge (Margot James CON). Requires a 8.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

34. Redditch (Rachel Maclean CON). Requires a 8.2% swing to Labour. Seat of a Labour Home Secretary not that long ago, but has been getting increasingly more Tory by the election of late. TORY HOLD.

35. Rugby (Mark Pawsey CON). Requires a 8% swing to Labour. They’ll give it a try but I see a substantially increased Tory majority here. TORY HOLD.

36. Cannock Chase (Amanda Milling CON). Requires a 8.7% swing to Labour. If Labour couldn’t win this after Burley in 2015… TORY HOLD

37. Burton (Andrew Griffiths CON) Requires a 10.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

38. Warwickshire North (Craig Tracey CON). Requires a 9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

39. Wrekin (Mark Pritchard CON). Requires a 9.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

40. Dudley South (Mike Wood CON). Requires a 10.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

41. Tamworth (Christopher Pincher CON). Requires a 13.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

42. Wyre Forest (Mark Garnier CON). Requires a 13.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

43. Staffordshire Moorlands (Karen Bradley CON). Requires a 12.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

44. North Shropshire (Owen Paterson CON). Requires a 14.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

45. Sutton Coldfield (Andrew Mitchell CON). Requires a 14.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

46. Bromsgrove (Sajid Javid CON). Requires a 15.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

47. Hereford and South Herefordshire (Jesse Norman CON). Requires a 14.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

48. Solihull (Julian Knight CON). Requires a 18.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

49. Meriden (Caroline Spelman CON). Requires a 17.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

50. Kenilworth and Southam (Jeremy Wright CON). Requires a 17.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

51. Lichfield (Michael Fabricant CON). Requires a 17.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

52. Aldridge-Brownhills (Wendy Morton CON). Requires a 17.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

53. Worcestershire West (Harriet Baldwin CON). Requires a 18.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

54. Stratford on Avon (Nadhim Zahawi CON). Requires a 19.9% swing to Labour.TORY HOLD

55. Ludlow (Philip Dunne CON). Requires a 19.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

56. Stone (Bill Cash CON). Requires a 17.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

57. Herefordshire North (Bill Wiggin CON). Requires a 21.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

58. Worcestershire Mid (Nigel Huddleston CON). Requires a 21.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

59. Staffordshire South (Gavin Williamson CON) . Requires a 22.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

East Midlands 

1. South Leicester (John Ashworth LAB). Requires a 26% swing to Tories. LABOU RHOLD

2. East Nottingham (vacant LAB). Requires a 24.9% swing to Tories, 35.8% swing to Chris Leslie. LAB HOLD

3. East Leicester (vacant LAB). Requires a 21.4% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD LAB HOLD

4. Nottingham South (Lillian Greenwood LAB). Requires a 15.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

5. West Leicester (Liz Kendall LAB). Requires a 14.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

6. Nottingham North (Alex Norris LAB). Requires a 14.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

7. Derby South (Margaret Beckett LAB). Requires a 12.4% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

8. Chesterfield (Toby Perkins LAB). Requires a 10% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

9. Gedling (Vernon Coaker LAB). Requires a 4.6% swing to Tories. This was a Tory target in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017, and each time Labour held on. Survations constituency poll for The Economist suggested Coaker will hold on again. This is Coaker’s 9th election, 6th as incumbent, he is Gedling Labour, and clearly has a strong personal vote as he has bucked the national and regional trend more than once. Add Labours OK local results, and this should be a LAB HOLD.

10. Bolsover (Dennis Skinner LAB). Requires a 5.2% swing to Tories. If elected, The Beast of Bolsover will become the oldest elected MP since Samuel Young the pre-WW1 Irish nationalist. There is a lot of ramping up of Tory chances here. If Skinner had stood down, maybe. But this is Dennis Skinner! His political demise is going to be heart attack mid-rant at a Tory front bencher from his usual seat, not losing in a Christmas election to some SPAD. Skinner holds the seat till death, and then it goes Tory – it is slowly trending as the mining communities die off. LAB HOLD.

11. Derby North (vacant LAB). Requires a 2.1% swing to Tories, 24.3% swing to Chris Williamson. I am pretty certain Williamson standing gifts this to the Tories. TORY GAIN.

12. Lincoln (Karen Lee LAB). Requires a 1.6% swing to Tories. Bit of a studenty seat but TORY GAIN

13. Bassetlaw (vacant LAB). Requires a 4.7% swing to Tories. Yeah, you don’t need to be Mystic Mann to know how this one is going. TORY GAIN.

14. High Peak (Ruth George LAB). Requires a 2.2% swing to Tories. Newsnight presenter pretty much told Ruth “yeah you’re losing your seat” the other week. The sort of seat the Tories will be looking to take for the majority. TORY GAIN.

15. Ashfield (vacant LAB). Requires a 0.45% swing to Tories, 16.8% swing to Ashfield Independents. Right, so local history here. Jason Zadrozny was the Lib Dem leader of Ashfield council. In 2015, he was to be the Lib Dem candidate in this seat, until his arrest for historic sex offences. After a 900 day attempt to clear his name, suspension from the Liberal Democrats and the death of his father from the stress of the case, Zadrozny found out on the day of his trial that the case was to be abandoned as the prosecution had zero evidence a crime had taken place. Standing with the Ashfield Independents, the new party won 30 of the 35 seats on Ashfield Council in 2019. Now, he is standing as a candidate in the local election, and Zadrozny is actually equal bookies favourites with the Tories to win this seat. Now, the possible sting in the tale for some of you is he is pro-Brexit deal. However, this is a 3 way marginal in which the Independent candidate might well be favourite. Of course, that split might keep the seat Labour, or give the Tories a clear lead. I’ll go with the Zadrozny momentum for now. IND GAIN.

16. Broxtowe (Anna Soubry IND). Requires a 0.8% swing to Labour, 23.4% swing to Anna Soubry. Well, clearly this seat is a gimme for the Militant Elvis Party. Ahem. Soubry standing for Change UK (soon to be a pub quiz difficulty question answer near you) is a sort of cat among pigeons. Does she split the Tory vote, or the “Remain” vote, and which of the two main parties does she harm? Or does she get 5 votes and lose heavily and have no effect? TORY HOLD for now.

17. Northampton South (Andrew Lewer CON). Requires a 1.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

18. Northampton North (Michael Ellis CON). Requires a 1% swing to Labour. Northampton is a 2 for 1 deal. Get one, get another free. Neither seem confident to go Labour at this point. TORY HOLD

19. Loughborough (Nicky Morgan CON). Requires a 3.9% swing to Labour. An odd seat as Loughborough is quite Labour friendly but the commuter villages around it aren’t. Seems to be infuriatingly just within reach but not reachable for them. TORY HOLD

20. Mansfield (Ben Bradley CON). Requires a 1.1% swing to Labour. No Brexit Party standing and the overlying trends should keep this TORY HOLD.

21. Corby (Tom Pursglove CON). Requires a 2.3% swing to Labour. Strong Labour seat but have they maxed out? Same swing as in 2015 and 17 required. TORY HOLD for now.

22. Erewash (Maggie Throup CON). Requires a 4.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD I guess.

23. Derbyshire North East (Lee Rowley CON). Requires a 2.9% swing to Labour. A seat increasingly becoming more Tory friendly by the election. TORY HOLD.

24. Sherwood (Mark Spencer CON). Requires a 4.9% swing to Labour. Another old Labour seat moving away from them. TORY HOLD

25. Rushcliffe (vacant CON). Requires a 6.8% swing to Labour. Feels the sort of seat that turns parties as soon as the incumbent leaves, but this might be the wrong election for it. I should stand by my earlier prediction about Rushcliffe and Bolsover (both would swap when their FOTH retired) but unconfidently now. LAB GAIN.

26. Amber Valley (Nigel Mills CON). Requires a 9.1% swing to Labour. Candy Crush Saga couldn’t move Mills. TORY HOLD

27. Kettering (Philip Hollobone CON). Requires a 10.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

28. Wellingborough (Peter Bone CON). Requires a 11.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

29. Harborough (Neil O’Brien CON). Requires a 10.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

30. Derbyshire South (Heather Wheeler CON). Requires a 11.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

31. Derbyshire mid (Pauline Latham CON). Requires a 11.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

32. Leicestershire north west (Andrew Bridgen CON). Requires a 12.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

33. Charnwood (Edward Argar CON). Requires a 14.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

34. Derbyshire Dales (Patrick McLoughlin CON). Requires a 13.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

35. Leicestershire South (Alberto Costa CON). Requires a 16.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

36. Bosworth (vacant CON). Requires a 16.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

37. Gainsborough (Edward Leigh CON). Requires a 16.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

38. Newark (Robert Jenrick CON). Requires a 16.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

39. Grantham and Stamford (vacant CON). Requires a 17.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

40. Northamptonshire South (Andrea Leadsom CON). Requires a 17.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

41. Louth and Horncastle (Victoria Atkins CON). Requires a 18.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

42. Boston and Skegness (Matt Warman CON). Requires a 19.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

43. Sleaford and North Hykeham (Caroline Johnson CON). Requires a 19.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

44. Daventry (Chris Heaton-Jones CON). Requires a 19.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

45. Rutland and Melton (Alan Duncan CON). Requires a 20.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

46. South Holland and The Deepings (John Hayes CON) . Requires a 24.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

Anglia and East England 

1. Luton South (vacant LAB). Requires a 15.1% swing to Tories, 31.2% swing to Gavin Shuker. Despite Shuker’s standing as independent, this seat should stay Labour. LAB HOLD

2. Luton North (vacant LAB). Requires a 15.4% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

3. Cambridge (Daniel Zeichner LAB). Requires a 11.3% swing to Lib Dems. Survation had this going heavily pro-Lib Dem again, although constituency polls in 2015 suggested they’d hold this and didn’t. Bookies have Lib Dems as favourites, Ziechners tenancy never seemed a long term one. However he is a Remainer. The trends are all Lib Dem but maybe the 2 Tory seats nearby are better odds? LIB DEM GAIN for now.

4. Norwich South (Clive Lewis LAB). Requires a 15.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

5. Peterborough (Lisa Forbes LAB). Requires a 0.7% (607 votes) swing to Tories. “Labour have taken Peterborough for granted” says the Tory candidate in a seat held by the Tories from 2005 to 2017. Forbes won the seat in the byelection earlier this year and will surely go into the Wiki list of shortest MP tenures. TORY GAIN.

6. Bedford (Mohammed Yasin LAB). Requires a 0.8% swing to Tories. Small swing central. Perhaps the Hard Brexit message wont be so popular here, but again surely the Tories have to win this. TORY GAIN.

7. Ipswich (Sandy Martin LAB). Requires a 0.8% (831 votes) swing to Tories. Apparently the MP isn’t popular. TORY GAIN.

8. North Norfolk (vacant LIB). Requires a 3.4% swing to Tories. Norman Lamb went to town mid-2017 election on the ground campaign when everyone started to throw in the towel here, and held on against expectations. Now he is retiring, and the Lib Dem difficulty replacing retiring incumbents of late and Lambs own personal appeal might produce a hell of an unwind. TORY GAIN.

9. Cambridgeshire South (vacant CON). Requires a 12.3% swing to Labour, 16.6% swing to Lib Dems. Heidi Allen’s old seat. The new Tory candidate is a journalist who once proposed the breakup of the NHS and the Lib Dems are going to town on this. Feels a bridge too far. TORY HOLD

10. Norwich North (Chloe Smith CON). Requires a 0.6% (507 votes) swing to Labour. Not sure how Chloe Smith still holds this very Labour seat – anti-gravity boots? This ought to go Labour but it should have in 2017 too. LAB GAIN, unconfidently.

11. Watford (vacant CON). Requires a 1.8% swing to Labour. Weird three way. Lib Dems touted it heavily in 2015 and 2017 only to get gubbed. Local Tory finances were heavily sorted by the guy they just chucked out of the party. Labour are a Jeremy Corbyn party. At the moment, the Lib and Lab votes eat each other and Tory hold by default. TORY HOLD.

12. Thurrock (Jackie Doyle-Price CON). Requires a 0.35% swing to Labour (345 votes). Another gravity defyer in recent elections. The lack of Tim Aker’s considerable vote from 2015 and 2017 will be curious, it seemed to split both ways in 2017 with its decreased share. In short, I haven’t a fucking clue what’s going to happen here. TORY HOLD?

13. Stevenage (Stephen McPartland CON). Requires a 3.5% swing to Labour. Labour run the council here, so if the polls narrow… TORY HOLD for now.

14. Colchester (Will Quince CON). Requires a 5.3% swing to Labour, 14.5% swing to Lib Dems. Labour went second here as Bob Russell’s vote unwound. I could see Lib Dems and Labour replace each other again. TORY HOLD

15. Rochford and Southend East (James Duddridge CON). Requires a 5.9% swing to Labour. Teddy Taylor’s old seat. TORY HOLD.

16. Welwyn Hatfield (Grant SHapps CON). Requires a 7.2% swing to Labour. Not much of note to say here. TORY HOLD.

17. Harlow (Rob Halfron CON). Requires a 7.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

18. St Albans (Anne Main CON). Requires a 5.4% swing to Lib Dems. A Lib Dem marginal target with a big (23%) Labour vote to squeeze down, they ought to be winning this. LIB DEM GAIN.

19. Hemel Hempstead (Mike Penning CON). Requires a 9.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

20. Waveney (Peter Aldous CON). Requires a 8.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

21. Great Yarmouth (Brandon Lewis CON). Requires a 9.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

22. Hitchin and Harpendem (Bim Afolami CON). Requires a 10.3% swing to Labour. Labour annoyed by the MRP claiming this is a Tory/Lib marginal (2017 never happened), a third Remain candidate is standing, Tory HOLD.

23. Southend West (David Amess CON). Requires a 10.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

24. Chelmsford (Vicky Ford CON). Requires a 11.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

25. Huntingdon (Jonathan Djanogly CON). Requires a 12.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

26. Cambridgeshire South East (Lucy Frazer CON). Requires a 12.8% swing to Labour, 17.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

27. Bedfordshire South West (Andrew Selous CON). Requires a 12.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

28. Basildon South and East Thurrock (Stephen Metcalfe CON). Requires a 12.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

29. Norfolk South (Richard Bacon CON). Requires a 13.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

30. Cambridgeshire North West (Shailesh Vara CON). Requires a 14.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

31. Bury St Edmonds (Jo Churchill CON). Requires a 14.8% swing to Labour TORY HOLD

32. Suffolk Coastal (Therese Coffey CON). Requires a 13.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

33. Harwick and north Essex (Bernard Jenkin CON). Requires a 14.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

34. Norfolk North West (Henry Bellingham CON). Requires a 14.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

35. Broadland (Keith Simpson CON). Requires a 14.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

36. Hertfordshire North East (Keith Simpson CON). Requires a 15.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

37. Basildon and Billericay (John Baron CON). Requires a 14.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

38. Norfolk Mid (George Freeman CON). Requires a 14.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

39. Hertford and Stortford (Mark Prisk CON). Requires a 16.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

40. Suffolk Central and Ipswich North (Dan Poulter CON). Requires a 15.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

41. Hertsmere (Oliver Dowden CON). Requires a 16.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

42. Hertfordshire South West (vacant CON). Requires a 16.1% swing to Labour, 28.9% swing to David Gauke. TORY HOLD

43. Suffolk West (Matt Hancock CON). Requires a 16.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

44. Broxbourne (Charles Walker CON). Requires a 16.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

45. Suffolk South (James Cartlidge CON). Requires a 16.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

46. Bedfordshire North East (Alistair Burt CON). Requires a 16.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

47. Bedfordshire Mid (Nadine Dorries CON). Requires a 16.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

48. Braintree (James Cleverly CON). Requires a 17.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

49. Norfolk South West (Liz Truss CON). Requires a 17.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

50. Epping Forrest (Eleanor Laing CON). Requires a 17.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

51. Witham (Priti Patel CON). Requires a 18.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

52. Cambridgeshire North East (Stephen Barclay CON). Requires a 19.9% swing to Labour. TORLY HOLD

53. Clacton (Giles Watling CON). Requires a 17.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

54. Saffron Walden (Kemi Badenoch CON). Requires a 20.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

55. Castle Point (Rebecca Harris CON). Requires a 21.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

56. Rayleigh and Wickford (Mark Francois CON). Requires a 21.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

57. Brentwood and Ongar (Alex Burghart CON). Requires a 26.1% swing to Labour, 26.6% swing to Greens. TORY HOLD

58. Maldon (John Whittingdale CON). Requires a 23.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

South West 

1. Bristol West (Thangam Debbonaire LAB). Requires a 26.1% swing to Tories, LAB HOLD

2. Exeter (Ben Bradshaw LAB). Requires a 14.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

3. Bristol South (Karyn Smith LAB). Requires a 14.7% swing to Tories. Lib Dems stood aside for the Greens and while the Greens might produce a good score, this seems likely to stay in Labour hands. LAB HOLD

4. Bristol East (Kerry McCarthy LAB). Requires a 13.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

5. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Luke Pollard LAB). Requires a 6.7% swing to Tories. A marginal in which Brexit’s Ann Widdecombe and the Lib Dems add a layer of confusion too. LAB HOLD for now.

6. Bristol North West (Darren Jones LAB). Requires a 4.4% swing to Tories. No Brexit party candidate here. This is all about the Labour votes ability to squeeze Lib Dem and Greens. If they can they hold. If they don’t, TORY GAIN.

7. Stroud (David Drew LAB). Requires a 0.6% swing (687 votes) to Tories. So, the Greens picked Molly Scott Cato to go against Peoples Vote advocate David Drew, the Lib Dems are standing too. The Tories have picked a Hardline Brexiteer non-local who will win this seat on that split. TORY GAIN.

8. Bath (Wera Hobhouse LIB). Requires a 5.8% swing to Tories. Could be one of the bigger Lib Dem majorities soon, given their local support. LIB DEM HOLD

9. Totnes (Sarah Wollaston LIB). Requires a 13.4% swing to Labour, 20.4% swing to Sarah Wollaston. This was a close Tory/Lib marginal until Sarah Wollaston became MP at which point it became a bigger majority. Now, can she do that with a different party? Well as she is locally popular, if anyone can… but it is a tall ask, and likely not this time around. TORY HOLD

10. Swindon South (Robert Buckland CON). Requires a 2.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

11. Camborne and Redruth (George Eustice CON). Requires a 1.7% swing to Labour. Expected much improved Tory majority as Lib Dems move back into 2nd. TORY HOLD

12. Filton and Bradley Stoke (Jack Lopresti CON). Requires a 4.1% swing to Labour. Another marginal where the pro-Brexit vote will unite around the Tory MP. TORY HOLD

13. Gloucester (Richard Graham CON). Requires a 5.1% swing to Labour. Doesn’t seem to be on the cards at the moment. TORY HOLD

14. Truro and Falmouth (Sarah Newton CON). Requires a 3.4% swing to Labour. There is a large anti-Tory vote which Labour nearly managed to squeeze successfully in 2017. If they can do that again (there’s still nearly 20% of it out there) then they can win this seat. At present that looks unlikely. TORY HOLD.

15. Plymouth Moorview (Johnny Mercer CON). Requires a 5.6% swing to Labour. Fractured opposition, high Leave vote, notable MP, TORY HOLD.

16. Bournemouth West (Conor Burns CON). Requires a 8.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

17. Bournemouth East (Tobias Ellwood CON). Requires an 8.2% swing to Labour. Not much evidence of Labour success here. TORY HOLD.

18. Swindon North (Justin Tomlinson CON). Requires a 7.6% swing to Labour. Three way split in the non-Brexit vote. TORY HOLD

19. Kingswood (Chris Skidmore CON). Requires a 7.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

20. Somerset North East (Jacob Rees-Mogg CON). Requires a 9.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD.

21. Weston super mare (John Penrose CON) . Requires a 10.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

22. Forest of Dean (Mark Harper CON). Requires a 9.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

23. St Austell and Newquay (Steve Double CON). Requires a 10.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

24. St Ives (Derek Thomas CON). Requires a 0.3% (312 votes) swing to Lib Dems. One of the top Lib Dem targets in the entire country. Complicated by a disappointing 2017 and the Greens standing (why?) but with the popular former MP Andrew George this should be a Lib Dem GAIN.

25. Cheltenham (Alex Chalk CON). Requires a 2.3% swing to Lib Dems. One of their top targets, talk that Tories had all but given up on the seat, if the Lib Dems cant win here they are in trouble. LIB DEM GAIN.

26. Dorset South (Richard Drax CON). Requires a 11.3% swing to Labour TORY HOLD

27. Devon North (vacant CON). Requires a 3.9% swing to Lib Dems. Heavy Brexit area, Greens standing, seems unlikely to shift back currently. TORY HOLD

28. Bridgwater and West Somerset (Ian Liddell-Grainger CON). Requires a 13.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

29. Poole (Robert Syms CON). Requires a 14.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

30. Devon Central (Mel Stride CON). Requires a 13.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

31. Chippenham ()Michelle DOnelan CON). Requires a 14.6% swing to Lib Dems. A straight 3 way dance between Tories, Lib Dems and Labour. TORY HOLD.

32. Torbay (Kevin Foster CON). Requires a 13.9% swing to Lib Dems. Unpopular Tory MP meets popular new Lib Dem council but surely the swing needed is too high? TORY HOLD

33. Wells (James Heappey CON). Requires a 6.3% swing to Lib Dems. Tessa Munt standing again but the circumstances she won in 2010 no longer exist and the current Tory MP is apparently more popular. TORY HOLD.

34. Somerset North (Liam Fox CON). Requires a 13.8% swing to Labour.TORY HOLD

35. Taunton Deane (Rebecca Pow CON). Requires a 12.6% swing to Lib Dem. TORY HOLD

36. Newton Abbott (Anne Marie Morris CON). Requires a 16.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

37. Cornwall North (Scott Mann CON). Requires a 7.1% swing to Lib Dems. One of the Labour partys less successful seats, they got 12% last time which can be nobbled downwards. The Tories took 50% of the vote however so any squeeze will be highly difficult. TORY HOLD

38. Cornwall South East (Sheryll Murray CON). Requires a 16.4% swing to Labour, 18% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

39. Salisbury (John Glen CON) Requires a 16.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

40. Devon South West (Gary Streeter CON). Requires a 14.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

41. Thornbury and Yate (Luke Hall CON). Requires a 12.9% swing to Lib Dems. Another that seems too high for the Lib Dems this time. TORY HOLD.

42. Devon West and Torridge (Geoffrey Cox CON). Requires a 17.9% swing to Labour, 19.9% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

43. Wiltshire South West (Andrew Murrison CON). Requires a 16.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

44. Dorset West (vacant CON). Requires a 16% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

45. Yeovil (Marcus Fysh CON). Requires a 12.4% swing to Lib Dems. A former Lib Dem stronghold done in by the Laws Effect. Fysh seems a bit controversial locally, apparently, and the Lib Dems are in heavy campaign mode and did well in the locals. Maybe a 2 election job? TORY HOLD, for now.

46. Somerton and Frome (David Warburton CON). Requires a 18% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

47. Tiverton and Honiton (Neil Parish CON). Requires a 17.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

48. Tewkesbury (Laurence Robertson CON). Requires a 19.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

49. Wiltshire North (James Gray CON). Requires a 21.3% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

50. Cotswolds (Geoffrey Clifton-Brown CON). Requires a 21.4% swing to Labour, 22.2% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

51. Devizes (vacant CON). Requires a 20.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

52. Dorset Mid and Poole North (Michael Tomlinson CON). Requires a 15.9% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

53. Dorset North (Simon Hoare CON). Requires a 23.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

54. Christchurch (Christopher CHope) CON – Requires a 24.9% swing for Labour. One of the safest seats in the country, the Best for Britain model (on 6th November) had Chope’s vote down by 20% and still had him in considerably majority territory. Chope isn’t the most popular MP in the world, there is unhappiness about local council reorganisations, and the like, but his seat is safe from all landslides even account for those. TORY HOLD.

55. Devon East (vacant CON). Requires a 6.7% swing to Independent. Claire Wright Independent hopes (she was a strong 2nd in 2015 and 2017) have been hurt by the Lib Dems standing against this strong Remainer. As have the Greens. As a result, instead of a Remain united win, we get a TORY HOLD.

London 

1. East Ham (Stephen Timms LAB). Requires a 35.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

2. Bethnal Green and Bow (Rushanara Ali LAB). Requires a 29.6% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

3. Tottenham (David Lammy LAB). Requires a 35.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

4. Walthamstow (Stella Creasy LAB). Requires a 33.3% swing to turn Tory. With 80% of the vote in 2017, Creasy’s seat is one of the safest in the entire country for Labour, and being in London is one of Labour’s stronger vote areas. LABOUR HOLD

5. Hackney South and Shoreditch (Meg Hillier LAB). Requires a 34.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

6. West Ham (Lyn Brown LAB). Requires a 30.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

7. Ilford South (vacant LAB). Requires a 27.5% swing to Tories, 37.9% swing to Mike Gapes. LAB HOLD

8. Camberwell and Peckham (Harriet Harman LAB). Requires a 32.5% swing to Tories.LAB HOLD

9. Hackney North and Stoke Newington (Diane Abbott LAB). Requires a 31.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

10. Poplar and Limehouse (vacant LAB). Requires a 23.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

11. Lewisham Deptford (Vicky Foxcroft LAB). Requires a 31.7% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

12. Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn LAB). Requires a 30.3% swing to Tories. LA BHOLD

13. Brent Central (Dawn Butler LAB). Requires a 26.8% swing to Tories.lABOUR HOLD

14. Edmonton (Kate Osamor LAB). Requires a 24.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

15. Leyton and Wanstead (John Cryer LAB). Requires a 24.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

16. Croydon North (Steve Reed LAB). Requires a 27.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

17. Ealing Southall (Virenda Sharma LAB). Requires a 24.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

18. Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer LAB). Requires a 25.9% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

19. Dulwich and West Norwood (Helen Hayes LAB). Requires a 25.1% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

20. Hornsey and Woodgreen (Catherine West LAB). Requires a 24.7% swing to Lib Dems. LAB HOLD

21. Streatham (vacant LAB). Requires a 23.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

22. Barking (Margaret Hodge LAB). Requires a 22.7% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

23. Mitcham and Morden (Siobhan McDonagh LAB). Requires a 22.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

24. Lewisham East (Heidi Alexander LAB). Requires a 22.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

25. Islington South and Finsbury (Emily Thornberry LAB). Requires a 21.2% swing to Tories, and given the recent voodoo polling, 25.4% swing to Lib Dems. LAB HOLD

26. Lewisham West and Penge (Ellie Reeves LAB). Requires a 21.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

27. Vauxhall (vacant LAB). Requires a 18.4% swing to Lib Dems. LAB HOLD

28. Greenwich and Woolwich (Matthew Pennycock LAB). Requires a 19.5% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

29. Hammersmith (Andy Slaughter LAB). Requires a 17.9% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

30. Ealing North (Steve Pound LAB). Requires a 18.8% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

31. Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell LAB). Requires a 18.9% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

32. Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Neil Coyle LAB). Requires a 11.1% swing to Lib Dem. I don’t believe in the inner city Lab to Lib swing being that big. LAB HOLD

33. Westminster North (Karen Buck LAB). Requires a 13.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

34. Brent North (Barry Gardiner LAB). Requires a 15.1% swing to Tories. LABOUR HOLD

35. Tooting (Rosena Allin-Khan LAB). Requires a 13.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

36. Feltham and Heston (Seema Malhotra LAB). Requires a 14.7% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

37. Hampstead and Kilburn (Tulip Siddiq LAB). Requires a 13.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

38. Ealing Central and Acton (Rupa Huq LAB). Requires a 12.5% swing to Tories lAB HOLD

39. Harrow West (Gareth Thomas LAB). Requires 13.2% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

40. Enfield North (vacant LAB). Requires a 10.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD. Low income pro-Labour voters, unlikely to switch back to the Tories. There’s been a 20% increase in the Labour vote here in 5 years, even with Corbyn. LAB HOLD

41. Brentford and Isleworth (Ruth Cadbury LAB). Requires a 9.9% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD?

42. Erith and Thameshead (Teresa Pearce LAB). Requires a 11.3% swing to Tories. Brexit Party standing may harm both parties but Labour still have a big lead. LAB HOLD

43. Ilford North (Wes Streeting LAB). Requires a 9.1% swing to Tories. Very rapid in the demographic changes as Streeting was thought to be at risk in 2017 only to increase his majority whoppingly. LAB HOLD

44. Eltham (Clive Efford LAB). Requires a 6.8% swing to Tories. A seat that, despite many attempts, the Tories could have won if the Brexit Party wasn’t standing. But they are. LAB HOLD

45. Battersea (Marsha de Cordova LAB). Requires a 2.2% swing to Tories. A seat that seems moving to Labour for now (until its future swing back – it is very volatile). LAB HOLD

46. Enfield Southgate (Bambos Charalambous LAB). Requires a 4.5% swing to Tories. Some wild swings in this seat in the past but with the trend going against Tories in London this decade, I feel like seats like this will stay Labour. LAB HOLD

47. Croydon Central (Sarah Jones LAB). Requires a 4.9% swing to Tories. Another seat where it feels like the demographics are moving towards Labour. London isn’t looking great for the government at this point in time. LAB HOLD

48. Kensington (Emma Dent Coad LAB). Requires a 0.05% (20 votes) swing to Tories, 15% swing to Lib Dems. With the Lib Dems running a heavy campaign here, almost certainly TORY GAIN.

49. Dagenham and Rainhaim (Jon Cruddas LAB). Requires a 5.1% swing to Tories. This comes up as a Tory potential gain at every election, much like Georgia for the Democrats, and much like Georgia, it hasn’t turned yet. LAB HOLD

50. Hendon (Matthew Offord CON). Requires a 1.1% swing to Labour. The least swingy seat in London has been solidly Tory this decade in vote share. TORY HOLD.

51. Putney (vacant CON). Requires a 1.7% swing to Labour. Justine Greening was quite popular in this heavy Remain Tory seat, until she got forced out of her own party. Usually that’s the signal for a voter rebellion. In a normal election. LAB GAIN at moment.

52. Finchley and Golders Green (Mike Freer CON). Requires a 1.6% swing to Labour, 20.2% swing to Lib Dems. Increasingly looks more like the Lib/Lab vote split will settle this more than the Tory/Lib crossover.TORY HOLD.

53. Chipping Barnet (Theresa Villiers CON). Requires a 0.3% swing to Labour. Feel like this one will fall to Labour just on ongoing trends, plus Villiers is a notable Brexiteer target. LAB GAIN.

54. Cities of London and Westminster (vacant CON). Requires a 4.1% swing to Labour, 17.8% swing to Lib Dems. I think this could have fallen to Labour under favourable circumstances, but with Chuka Umunnas favourite MP Chuka Umunna standing here for some reason, the split will let in a TORY HOLD.

55. Harrow East (Bob Blackman CON). Requires a 1.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

56. Chingford and Woodford Green (Iain Duncan Smith CON). Requires a 2.6% swing to Labour. Oh wouldn’t you just… sadly Labour squeezed everyone in 2017 so there is no vote to get… TORY HOLD

57. Wimbledon (Stephen Hammond CON). Requires a 5.5% swing to Labour, 16% swing to Lib Dem. Lots of ramping going on here, and that Observer poll that has Tories and Lib Dems 2 points apart wont help. LIB DEM GAIN, maybe.

58. Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson CON). Requires a 5.4% swing to Labour. As exciting as it would be to see a PM lose their seat, I think Boris will probably hold on here against his young Labour opponent. It would be the biggest story of the night otherwise. Likely the most interesting story will be who is least worst out of Elmo, Lord Buckethead, Count Binface and the Time Lord. TORY HOLD.

59. Chelsea and Fulham (Greg Hands CON). Requires a 9.7% swing to Labour. The MP was talking up being at risk but I think this one is safe on the Lab/Lib close 2nd split. TORY HOLD.

60. Croydon South (Chris Philp CON). Requires a 9.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

61. Bromley and Chislehurst (Bob Neill CON). Requires a 10.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

62. Bexleyheath and Crayford (David Evennett CON). Requires a 10.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

63. Richmond Park (Zac Goldsmith CON). Requires a 0.05% swing (45 votes) to Lib Dems. Sarah Olney stands again to try and win back the seat she lost in the 2017 election having won it months before in a byelection. Look at the number of votes, the Lib Dem friendly end of London, the large Remain vote, the useless Labour vote to squeeze. This is the Lib Dem top target in England and if they cant win this they should give up. Not sending troops to Vauxhall might help. LIB DEM GAIN.

64. Sutton and Cheam (Paul Scully CON). Requires a 12.2% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

65. Ruislip, Northwood Pinner (Nick Hurd CON). Requires a 13.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

66. Beckenham (Bob Stewart CON). Requires a 14.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

67. Romford (Andrew Rosindell CON). Requires a 13.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

68. Old Bexley and Sidcup (James Brokenshire CON). Reuqires a 16.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

69. Hornchuck and Upminster (Julia Dockerill CON). Requires a 15.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

70. Orpington (vacant CON). Requires a 19.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

71. Kingston and Surbiton (Ed Davey LIB). Requires a 3.3% swing to Tories. LIB DEM HOLD

72. Twickenham (vacant LIB). Requires a 7.4% swing to Tories. Vince Cable retiring but the Lib Dems should hold on here. LIB DEM HOLD

73. Carshalton and Wallington (Tom Brake LIB). Requires a 1.4% swing to Tories. Effective local MP in a Remain seat. Looks at risk again but if he held on in 2015 and 2017… LIB DEM HOLD

South East 

1. Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds LAB). Requires a 21.6% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

2. Slough (Tan Dhesi LAB). Requires a 15.7% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

3. Hove (Peter Kyle LAB). Requires a 16.3% swing to Tories. LAB HOLD

4. Southampton Test (Alan Whitehead LAB). Requires a 12.3% swing to Tories. Strong local candidate in a Remain seat might be under threat if his vote disappears en masse to the Lib Dems but I think this is a LAB HOLD.

5. Brighton Kemptown (Lloyd Russell-Moyle LAB). Requires a 10.1% swing to Tories. Massive swing to Labour in 2017. “It wont be considered a swing seat again” said David Dimbleby of little faith. But really if its in play we’re looking at a disaster election for Labour. Yes, more than folk expect. LAB HOLD

6. Reading East (Matt Rodda LAB). Requires a 3.4% swing to Tories. Large student seat. LAB HOLD.

7. Canterbury (Rosie Duffield LAB). Requires a 0.15% swing (187 votes) to Tories. I think we all saw the contretemps with the local Lib Dem party. This is a Tory lock gain now. TORY GAIN.

8. Portsmouth South (Stephen Morgan LAB). Requires a 1.8% swing to Tories, 16.9% swing to the Lib Dems. OH this seat. Tories came rushing forward to win it in 2015 then Labour won from 3rd in 2017. Now the Lib Dems and their solid figure who contested in 2015 and 2017 after the unravelling of Mike Hancock might be hoping for another surge to the top. A true three way marginal which is impossible to call, but for now, LIB DEM GAIN.

9. Brighton Pavilion (Caroline Lucas GREEN). Requires a 12.8% swing to Labour. This seat is Lucas’s for now. GREEN.

10. Southampton Itchen (Royston Smith CON). Requires a 0.05% (31 votes) swing to Labour. Royston Smith’s had an interesting decade, hasn’t he? George Medal for stopping a terror attack, fined for driving an uninsured car, winning this seat unexpectedly when Labour put in a weak replacement to John Denham. Holding the seat in 2017 by a sniffle. Brexit support, Spitfire restoration supporting, and a man who views Parliamentary stuff as secondary to his local work in Southampton! Hard to dislike really, but there is a feeling he is defying gravity in his MP career so far. The Remain vote might cut into Labour here, but UKIP (remember them) are standing and might take a sizeable vote the Brexit Party would have otherwise taken. If Labour show any recovery on the night, Royston is at risk. But for now, I think he’ll Crash Holly another run out of Itchen. TORY HOLD

11. MK South (Iain Stewart CON). Requires a 1.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

12. Hastings and Rye (vacant CON). Requires a 0.3% swing to Labour (346 votes). If Labour can come back in the polls this is likely to fall. But Amber Rudd has retired. For now TORY HOLD.

13. MK North (Mark Lancaster CON). Requires a 1.5% swing to Labour. They have robots! And demographic changes, but not enough this time round. TORY HOLD.

14. Crawley (Henry Smith CON). Requires a 2.5% swing to Labour. Little sign of much activity yet. TORY HOLD

15. Reading West (Alok Sharma CON). Requires a 2.8% swing to Labour. COnsittuency polling by The Economist suggests massive increased majority for Tories. The changing fortunes of the Reading seats is fascinating. TORY HOLD

16. Wycombe (Steve Baker CON). Requires a 6.2% swing to Labour. It’s vulnerable, Baker is a notable ERGer in an area with lots of Remain voters and UKIP are standing. TORY HOLD for now but unsure.

17. Worthing East and Shoreham (Tim Loughton CON). Requires a 4.8% swing to Labour. Freak result in 2017? TORY HOLD

18. Dover (vacant CON). Requires a 6.2% swing to Labour. My vote for shock switch of the night with the Brexit/Dover/Calais issue. LAB GAIN.

19. Thanet South (Craig mackinley CON). Requires a 6.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

20. Basingstoke (Maria Miller CON). Requires a 8.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

21. Gillingham and Rainham (Rehman Christie CON). Requires a 9.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

22. Rochester and Strood (Kelly Tolhurst CON). Requires a 9.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

23. Banbury (Victoria Prentis CON). Requires a 10.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

24. Gravesham (Adam Holloway CON). Requires a 9.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

25. Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt CON). Requires a 10.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

26. Chatham and Aylesford (Tracey Crouch CON). Requires a 11.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

27. Aldershot (Leo Docherty CON). Requires a 12.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

28. Thanet North (Roger Gale CON). Requires a 11.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

29. Aylesbury (vacant CON). Requires a 12.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

30. Worthing West (Peter Bottomley CON). Requires a 11.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

31. Dartford (Gareth Johnson). Requires a 12.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

32. Eastleigh (Mims Davies). Requires a 12.4% swing to the Lib Dems. Now this one is weird. With a 14, 000 majority (the seat swung badly against the Lib Dems in 2015 and post Chris Huhnes fall from grace) this seems a safe seat. However, Mims Davies the incumbent MP has quit and is trying to win the safer seat of Mid Sussex. The spin is already in, that she wanted to be closer to her parents, that she had a fall out with her local CCP, but the optics look weird. One of the taos of politics is that things cant happen until people think they can happen, and now what this does is suggest Eastleigh is actually a marginal. And when you do that… TORY HOLD for now.

33. Isle of Wight (Bob Seely CON). Requires a 14.2% swing to Labour, 17% swing to Greens. TORY HOLD

34. Wantage (vacant CON). Requires a 13.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

35. Woking (jonathan Lord CON). Requires a 15.2% swing to Labour, 18.3% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

36. Lewes (Maria Caulfield CON). Requires a 5.1% swing to Lib Dems. Bookies favour the Lib Dems but no Faragists aided the Tories massively here last time. TORY HOLD

37. Folkestone and Hythe (Damian Collins CON). Requires a 13.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

38. Guildford (Anne Milton CON). Requires a 15.4% swing to Lib Dems. This is the “if Guildford goes it goes” seat. Milton standing as an independent. Going off the ground you’d think the Tories are in major trouble here, and if those Surrey polls are true, this is their best shot at a “shock” win. LIB DEM GAIN.

39. Bracknell (vacant CON). Requires a 14.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

40. Tunbridge Wells (Greg Clark CON). Requires a 15.2% swing to Labour. Apparently a very unpopular Tory council here, but TORY HOLD

41. Sittingbourne and Sheppey (Gordon Henderson CON). Requires a 14.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

42. Wokingham (John Redwood CON). Requires a 15.8% swing to Labour, 20.4% swing to Lib Dems. Survation claim this is too close to call between Redwood and ex-Tory now Lib-Dem Philip Lee. That’d be sensational if Redwood lost but seems unlikely. TORY HOLD

43. Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng CON). Requires a 13.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

44. Ashford (Damian Green CON). Requires a 14.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

45. Sussex Mid (vacant CON). Requires a 15.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

46. Winchester (Steve Brine CON). Requires a 8.8% swing to Lib Dems. A very popular lib Dem target in the betting, Brine is looking increasingly at risk. LIB DEM GAIN.

47. Maidstone and the Weald (Helen Grant CON). Requires a 17.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

48. Reigate (Crispin Blunt CON). Requires a 16.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

49. Romsey and Southampton North (Caroline Nokes CON). Requires a 17.9% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

50. Witney (Robert Courts CON). Requires a 17.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

51. Havant (Alan Mak CON). Requires a 17.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

52. Epsom and Ewell (Chris Grayling CON). Requires a 17.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

53. Runnymede and Weybridge (CON). Requires a 17.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

54. Faversham and Kent Mid (Helen Whately CON). Requires a 17.5% swing to TORY HOLD

55. Gosport (Caroline DInenage CON). Requires a 17.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

56. Esher and Walton (Dominic Raab CON). Requires a 19.5% swing to Labour, 20.7% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

57. Horsham (Jeremy Quin CON). Requires a 18.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

58. Chichester (Gillian Keegan CON). Requires an 18.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

59. Henley (John Howell CON). Requires a 19.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

60. Bognor Regis and Littlehampton (Nick Gibb CON). Requires a 17.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

61. Hampshire north west (Kit Malthouse CON). Requires a 19.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

62. Fareham (Seulla Fernandes CON). Requires a 18.9% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

63. Chesham and Amersham (Cheryl GIllan CON). Requires a 20.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

64. Wealden (Nus Ghani CON). Requires a 19.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

65. Newbury (Richard Benyon CON). Requires a 20.1% swing to Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

66. Windsor (Adam Afriyie CON). Requires a 20.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

67. Arundel and South Downs (Nick Herbert CON). Requires a 19.8% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

68. New Forest East (Julian Lewis CON). Requires a 21.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

69. Bexhill and Battle (Huw Merriman CON). Requires a 18.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

70. Tonbridge and Malling (Tom Tugendhat CON). Requires a 20.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

71. Surrey Heath (Michael Gove CON). Requires a 21.6% swing to Labout. TORY HOLD

72. Hampshire East (Damian Hinds CON). Requires a 23.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

73. Sevenoaks (vacant CON). Requires a 21.4% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

74. Maidenhead (Theresa May CON). Requires a 22.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

75. Mole Valley (Paul Beresford CON). Requires a 21.3% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

76. Meon Valley (vacant CON). Requires a 24.7% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

77. Hampshire North East (Ranil Jayawadena CON). Requires a 24.1% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

78. New Forest West (Desmond Swayne CON). Requires a 23.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

79. Surrey South West (Jeremy Hunt CON). Requires a 21.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

80. Beaconsfield (Dominic Grieve INDEPENDENT). Requires a 21.9% swing to Labour, 32.7% to Dominic Grieve. TORY HOLD

81. Eastbourne (Stephen Loyd Lib Dem) Requires a 1.4% swing to the Tories. Lloyd is back with the Lib Dems, having sat as an independent for much of the last year. Apparently the reason was simple: he was elected on a support the Referendum manifesto, so he did. Now he is standing on Revoke. The Lib Dems easily took him back as Lloyd is considered one of their best local campaigners in the entire country, having won Eastbourne twice against national swings. He also nearly held on in 2015 against the vast national swing from Lib to Tory. If he does that in bad years, he must surely hang on when there’s a swing towards the Liberals. LIB DEM HOLD

82. Oxford West and Abingdon (Layla Moran LIB). Requires a 0.7% swing to Tories. Increased majority seems likely. LIB HOLD

83. Surrey East (TORY vacant). Requires a 20.2% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

84. Buckingham (vacant former speaker) . Predicted Safe Tory seat based on 2005 election. TORY GAIN

N Ireland 

(Yeah, I know not much here, but these seats might turn crucial…)

1. Antrim East DUP (Sammy Wilson) – Needs a 20.8% swing to the Alliance. Seems relative safe. DUP HOLD

2. Antrim North DUP (Ian Paisley). Requires a 21.3% swing to Sinn Fein. DUP HOLD

3. Antrim South DUP (Paul Girvan). Requires a 3.7% swing to the UUP. UUP GAIN (on pure surely they’ll win a seat somewhere?)

4. Belfast East DUP (Gavin Robinson). Requires a 9.9% swing to the Alliance. A three way between Robinson, the UUP and Naomi Long. Does the split here help Long just as the Unionist union hindered her in Belfast in 2015? ALLIANCE GAIN, I guess.

5. Belfast North DUP (Nigel Dodds). Requires a 2.3% swing to Sinn Fein. With this being DOdds v SF (v Alliance) it could be a tight night for the everpresent on TV DUP man, but I think he might just hold on. DUP HOLD

6. Belfast South DUP (Emma Little Pengelly). Requires a 2.3% swing to SDLP and a 6.1% swing to the Alliance. SDLP/anti-Brexit – seems the SLDP’s best chance of a gain on the night (they have a few targets). SDLP GAIN as it stands.

7. Lagan Valley DUP (Jeffrey Donaldson). Requires a 21.4% swing to the UUP. DUP HOLD

8. Derry East DUP (Gregory Campbell). Requires a 10.6% swing to Sinn Fein. DUP HOLD

9. Strangford DUP (Jim Shannon). Requires a 23.7% swing to the Alliance. DUP HOLD

10. Upper Bann DUP (David Simpson). Requires a 7.8% swing to Sinn Fein. DUP HOLD

11. Down North INDEPENDENT vacant. Requires a 1.5% swing to DUP. Voted to Remain in the Referendum, and the Alliance are running as the Remainer choice. No SDLP or SF standing here might well help that out while UUP/DUP/Tories all stand. ALLIANCE GAIN.

12. Belfast West SF (Paul Maskey) – Requires a 26.7% swing to DUP. SF HOLD

13. Down South SF (Chris Hazzard). Requires a 2.4% swing to SDLP. SDLP reliant on a tactical vote which might not come. SF HOLD

14. Fermanagh and South Tyrone SF (Michelle Gildernew). Requires a 0.8% swing to UUP. SF HOLD

15. Foyle SF (Elisha McCallion). Requires a 0.2% swing to the SDLP. Council results and tactical votes suggest SDLP GAIN.

16. Newry and Armagh SF (Mickey Brady). Requires a 11.7% swing to DUP. SF HOLD

17. Tyrone West SF (Orfhlaith Begley). Requires a 11.9% swing to DUP. SF HOLD

18. Ulster Mid SF (Francie Molloy). Requires a 13.8% swing to DUP. SF HOLD

1. Tory 340

2. Lab 227

3. SNP 36

4. Lib Dem 24

5. DUP 7

6. Sinn Fein 6

7. Plaid 2

8. Alliance 2

9. SDLP 2

10. Green 1

11. UUP 1

12. Independent 1

13. The Speaker 1 

Tory majority of 30.

But there are many factors in this election which can bugger this as a projection.



1. I could be overestimating the Labour party’s defence. In fact, they do not benefit from tactical voting (especially in Scotland), nor do they hold onto their marginals with strong local MPS. As a result, they fall below 200 MPs and the Tory majority rises.

2. Ditto if I have yet again suffered from Lib Dem Over Praise. In 2015, I thought they’d hold onto about 30 of their seats. They held 8. Their campaign has been mediocre to date, so it is possible the Lib Dems get squeezed out and have an election similar to 2017. Which again would increase the majority.

3. Maybe the Lib Dems are right and can win 60+ seats. Most of their realistic targets (80%) are Tory held so if that big Lib Dem surge actually happens it will be completely fatal to this government.

4. Again, perhaps you, me, life, the universe and everything is underestimating Corbyn’s Labour like in 2017, and the swing is actually Tory to Labour. That would fuck up this entire prediction, but currently seems highly unlikely.

5. In 2015, I also heavily underestimated SNP success. People are expecting them to get back up to 50 seats here, but they are only a few points up on 2017 at best, and those Tory seats seem like ones with deep roots. If the 10 Scottish Tories turn out to be optimistic, this is another moment that can turn the election.

6. We don’t know what extent tactical voting if any will have. Or the appearance of the Brexit Party in some seats but not in others. Or the Lib Dem/Green/Plaid pact, which seems destined to fuck over Plaid Cymru.

7. Mostly pertinently, we (I) are all assuming this is the Brexit election, or the Boris v Corbyn election. All the polling to date suggests this. But, if on the day it turns out to be the “get rid of this government” election, all bets are off. Who governs is historically a loaded question to ask the electorate.

With all that said, I still expect a healthy majority for Boris Johnson. And then he can pretty much do whatever he wants.

Merry Christmas.