I said after last time there was no way I'd be doing a seat by seat forecast this time round. Not a chance. No chance in hell. And, of course, here it is.
I've been aided in the task by, to be blunt, "doing an Iain Dale". In 2015, Iain Dale predicted every seat, with such gems as "Glasgow South West - safe Labour hold". In fact, my 2015 seat by seat was in reaction to his, an attempt to do better than Dale. And, that, I achieved. By which I mean we both sucked, and missed the David Cameron majority. Hell, I called 28 seats for the SNP "a great night for them", and warned the Lib Dems could wind up with as few as 25 seats, a target they haven't seen since!
But now that I am older and frankly more worn out, I see the wisdom in Dale glossing over the safe seats. And with the movement of traffic in the polls, hopefully I am as wrong in my "22k Tory majority, safe hold" projections as he was in trying to predict Glasgow in 2015!
Some seats are more interesting that others. For example, there's a three way marginal seat in Ayr, whereas Walthamstow will continue to produce North Korean like majorities for Stella Creasy!
Oh and like a complete chicken I am not doing the Northern Irish seats because I lack enough knowledge about the likelihood of each party. Just the 632 seats of England, Wales and Scotland.
