Election Forecast 2024

 

I said after last time there was no way I'd be doing a seat by seat forecast this time round. Not a chance. No chance in hell. And, of course, here it is. 

I've been aided in the task by, to be blunt, "doing an Iain Dale". In 2015, Iain Dale predicted every seat, with such gems as "Glasgow South West - safe Labour hold". In fact, my 2015 seat by seat was in reaction to his, an attempt to do better than Dale. And, that, I achieved. By which I mean we both sucked, and missed the David Cameron majority. Hell, I called 28 seats for the SNP "a great night for them", and warned the Lib Dems could wind up with as few as 25 seats, a target they haven't seen since!

But now that I am older and frankly more worn out, I see the wisdom in Dale glossing over the safe seats. And with the movement of traffic in the polls, hopefully I am as wrong in my "22k Tory majority, safe hold" projections as he was in trying to predict Glasgow in 2015!

Some seats are more interesting that others. For example, there's a three way marginal seat in Ayr, whereas Walthamstow will continue to produce North Korean like majorities for Stella Creasy! 

Oh and like a complete chicken I am not doing the Northern Irish seats because I lack enough knowledge about the likelihood of each party. Just the 632 seats of England, Wales and Scotland. 

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East of England (61 seats)

1. Basildon and Billericay (Tory). Chairman of the Tory party, Richard Holden, standing for the Conservatives after John Baron’s retirement. Despite boundary changes, Billericay remains solidly Tory. Despite local grumpiness over the Tory selection, no splits happened. YouGov is hilariously projecting this as a Reform/Labour marginal with Holden way behind, but he’ll hold this. TORY HOLD

2. Bedford (Lab) – Mohammed Yasin. Reform are expected to bite heavily into the Tories here, given Yasin a much increased majority. LABOUR HOLD

3. Braintree (Tory) – James Cleverly. YouGov MRP claims this seat is too close to call, which would be hilarious. It would require a 24.8% swing to even be close. TORY HOLD

4. Brentwood and Ongar (Tory) – Alex Burghart. Requiring a 27% swing to Labour, and the opposition being split, this is one of the safest Tory seats in Britain. Even the YouGov and Savanta MRP’s couldn’t find a way to take it off the Tories. TORY HOLD

5. Broadland and Fakenham (Tory) – Jerome Mayhew. YouGov are predicting a 24% swing to Labour here! If they lost here the Tories would be under 100 MPs. TORY HOLD

6. Broxbourne (Tory) – Lewis Coking standing for the Tories after Charles Walkers retirement. Would have probably stayed Tory had Walker remained. 20% swing required. TORY HOLD

7. Bury St Edmonds and Stowmarket (Tory) – Rishi Sunak’s deputy Chief of Staff, Will Tanner, standing for the Tories after Jo Churchill’s retirement. With a 22k majority and a 21% swing required to shift to Labour, this seat has been Tory since 1826. TORY HOLD

8. Cambridge (Labour) – Daniel Zeichner. LABOUR HOLD

9. Castle Point (Tory) – Rebecca Harris. One of the three safest Tories seats in the UK. TORY HOLD

10. Central Suffolk and North Ipswich (Tory) – Patrick Spencer standing for the Tories after Dan Poulter’s defection to the Labour party and subsequent retirement. Super safe Tory land. TORY HOLD

11. Chelmsford (Tory) – Vicky Ford. Lib Dems need a 14.3% swing to unseat. Apparently the Lib Dems are storming in this part of the world. LIB DEM GAIN

12. Clacton (Tory) – Giles Watling. The one with all the drama. You might have heard Nigel Farage is standing here, and polling, the public and media all expect to win, despite Watling’s majority. There is a slim possibility that Labour sneak through the middle while the Tories and Reform nobble each other. All the mood music is that Farage will win a seat in parliament at the ninth attempt. REFORM GAIN

13. Colchester (Tory) – James Cracknell standing for the Tories after Will Quince retirement. This was a Lib Dem seat until 2017, however, the Lib Dems and Labour have an agreement where Labour (who came 2nd in 2019) campaign here and Lib Dems have Chelmsford. LABOUR GAIN

14. Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard (Tory) – Andrew Selous. Requires a 16% swing to Labour, who haven’t been campaigning here. TORY HOLD

15. Ely and East Cambridgeshire (Tory) – Lucy Frazer. Requires a 12% swing to the Lib Dems. Meant to be close. TORY HOLD

16. Epping Forest (Tory) – former Penrith MP Neil Hudson standing for the Tories due to Eleanor Laing’s retirement. A super safe Tory seat and Reform aren’t standing. TORY HOLD.

17. Great Yarmouth (Tory) – James Clark standing due to Brandon Lewis’s retirement. Rupert Lowe standing for Respect. Kier Cozens, the Labour candidate, is said to be running a strong campaign. Rupert Lowe is trying to claim it’s a two way fight between himself and the Labour party. LABOUR GAIN

18. Harlow (Tory) – Hannah Ellis standing for the Tories due to Robert Halfron’s retirement. Apparently leaning to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

19. South West Hertfordshire (Tory) – Gagan Mohindra. Requires an 18% swing to Labour, with split opposition. Not expected by Labour campaigners to shift. TORY HOLD

20. Harpenden and Berkhamsted (Tory notional) – Nigel Gardner standing in this new seat for the Tories. The local campaign teams expect a Lib Dem win, and YouGov has changed their own MRP to agree with them. LIB DEM GAIN

21. Hitchin (Tory) - Bim Afolami. The Labour by-election winner in Mid Bedfordshire ,Alistair Strathern, is standing here for Labour. There is apparently a local understanding between Labour and Lib Dems, where the Lib Dems focus on Harpenden, whilst Labour focus here on Hitchin. The Tories got trounced here in the May locals. LABOUR GAIN

22. Harwick and North Essex (Tory) – Bernard Jenkin. Labour would require a 16.4% swing to unseat Jenkin, who has been campaigning in his own seat. YouGov think this is too close to call. TORY HOLD

23. Hemel Hempstead (Tory) – Andrew Williams standing for the Tories due to Mike Penning’s retirement. Requires a 13.4% swing to Labour. The local campaign is dubious Labour will do much here, as they struggled in recent local elections. YouGov thinks it is a done deal for Labour. TORY HOLD

24. Hertford and Stortford (Tory) – Julie Marson. Requires a 16% swing to Labour. There was a failed attempt to deselect the Tory MP. Her local unpopularity might shift it, TORY HOLD

25. Hertsmere (Tory) – Oliver Dowden. The Labour candidate, Josh Tapper, is a participant in TV show Gogglebox. He was picked as this was an unwinnable seat, and YouGov, Tories and locals agree Dowden losing is unimaginable. TORY HOLD.

26. Huntingdon (Tory) – Ben Obese-Jecty standing for the Tories due to Jonathan Djanogly’s retirement. A super safe Tory seat which has apparently picked a locally popular Tory candidate. TORY HOLD

27. St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire (Tory) – Anthony Browne. An independent, Stephen Ferguson, is standing here to protest the Labour party selection. This will eat into the Labour vote, though the YouGov MRP believes this is a close race between the Tories and Lib Dems. That would require a 12.5% swing which feels relatively low given some of the predictions spoken about. LIB DEM GAIN

28. South Cambridgeshire (notionally Tory) – Christopher Carter-Chapman is standing for the Tories in this new seat. Expected locally to be an easy Lib Dem gain. LIB DEM GAIN

29. Ipswich (Tory) – Tom Hunt. Between an unhappy MP (who threatened to jump ship to Reform), and a seat which was won by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017, this one feels like a prime Labour gain, and the word is it wont be close. Michael Crick says Hunt is vulnerable, which is his way of saying fecked. LABOUR GAIN

30. Lowestoft (Tory) – Peter Aldous. TORY HOLD

31. Luton North (Labour) – Sarah Owen. A relatively safe Labour seat that they won with a stronger percentage of the vote in 2019 than in 1997. LABOUR HOLD

32. Luton South and South Bedfordshire (Lab) – Rachel Hopkins. The Tories would require a 6% swing to take this but the wind appears to be blowing the other way. LABOUR HOLD

33. Maldon (Tory) – John Whittingdale. Requiring nearly a 30% swing, this is one of the four safest Tory seats on the planet. TORY HOLD

34. Mid Bedfordshire (Tory) – Blake Stephenson is standing for the Tories. The seat is currently held by Labour due to a by-election. The by-election candidate is standing in another seat. Without the Nadine Dorries circus this is widely expected to revert back to form. TORY RE-GAIN

35. Mid Norfolk (Tory) – George Freeman. Would require a 20.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

36. North Bedfordshire (Tory) – Richard Fuller. Requires a 21% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

37. North East Cambridgeshire (Tory) – Steve Barclay. Another of the top 10 safest Tories. TORY HOLD.

38. North East Hertfordshire (Tory) – Former advisor Nikki da Costa is standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Oliver Heald. That, plus the fact the Tories have been getting trounced in recent local elections here (going from 23 seats to 7 in 24 months) suggests the 16% swing required is achievable for Labour. LABOUR GAIN, though I’m wary about split Lab/Lib opposition.

39. North Norfolk (Tory) – Duncan Baker. The Lib Dems are requiring a 14% swing. YouGov are predicted a 20% swing, although the local money appears to be on a Tory hold.

40. North West Cambridgeshire (Tory – Shailesh Vara. Would require over an 18% swing to Labour, and apparently there is little sign of campaigning in the area. TORY HOLD

41. North West Norfolk (Tory) – James Wild. Another super safe Tory seat we hear little about. TORY HOLD

42. Norwich North (Tory) – Charlotte Salomon standing for the Tories due to Chloe Smith’s retirement. Chloe Smith, who won in a by-election in 2009 during the financial crisis, managed to hold onto the seat despite health problems. Without her local popularity, this seat is likely to return swiftly to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

43. Norwich South (Labour) – Clive Lewis. Safe Labour seat. LABOUR HOLD

44. Peterborough (Tory) – Paul Bristow. The Tories actually did well here in the local elections, but the swing required for Labour is so low (3%) that it will surely swap. LABOUR GAIN

45. Rayleigh and Wickford (Tory) – Mark Francois. Super safe Tory seat. TORY HOLD

46. Southend East and Rochford (Tory) – Gavin Haran standing for the Tories due to James Duddridge’s retirement. Requires a 14% swing to Labour. Labour have the largest party on the Southend council now, and seem to have local growth. LABOUR GAIN.

47. North West Essex (Tory) – Kemi Badenoch. Super safe seat with split opposition. Reform have disowned their candidate. TORY HOLD

48. South Basildon and East Thurrock (Tory) – Stephen Metcalfe. Requiring a 20.9% swing to Labour, and allegedly a three horse race between Tories, Labour and Reform. TORY HOLD

49. South Norfolk (Tory) – Poppy Simister-Thomas standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Richard Bacon. Would require a 16.6% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

50. Waveney Valley (Tory notionally) – Richard Rout standing for the Tories in this new seat. Former Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb is backing the Greens here. Lots of excitement for the Greens here but there was for the Greens with the same candidate in Norwich in 2010. I suspect it’ll be a TORY HOLD though.

51. South Suffolk (Tory) – James Cartlidge. A 21% swing, 21k Tory majority which there is little news about. TORY HOLD

52. South West Norfolk (Tory) – Liz Truss. A seat YouGov think is too close to call, and held by an internationally famously disastrous ex Prime Minister. Local Tories are supporting one of their own members, James Bagge, as an independent Tory in the seat, and while he will get a miniscule amount of votes (despite, or perhaps harmed by Rory Stewart’s backing) , he and Reform will both eat votes from the vast Truss majority. Do you know why they call them Portillo Moments though? Because no one predicts them. TORY HOLD

53. Southend West and Leigh (Tory) – Anna Firth. Needs a 15% swing to Labour, but like the other Southend seat, appears to be shifting towards Labour. LABOUR GAIN

54. St Albans (Lib Dem) – Daisy Cooper, who is widely expected to increase her majority. LIB DEM HOLD

55. Stevenage (Tory) – Alex Clarkson standing for the Tories due to Stephen McPartland’s retirement. With disquiet over the replacement, and Labour needing an 8.9% swing, this one is widely expected to change hands. LABOUR GAIN

56. Suffolk Coastal (Tory) – Therese Coffey. Labour would require a 17.8% swing. Allegedly closer than you’d suspect. TORY HOLD

57. Thurrock (Tory) – Jackie Doyle-Price, who managed to substantially improve her majority in 2019, but the local view is her Houdini like run as MP is about to end. The large UKIP vote in this area was mostly down to the local popularity of Tim Aker, who has since left politics. The Tories, in charge of a bankrupt council, were nearly entirely wiped out in May. LABOUR GAIN

58. Watford (Tory) – Dean Russell. The swing the Labour party need to win this seat is 1.3%. This is among the fifteen smallest majorities the Tories have in the UK. LABOUR GAIN

59. Welwyn Hatfield (Tory) Grant Shapps. Labour require a 10.4% swing to unseat the Defence Sec. Meant to have shifted considerably towards Labour. LABOUR GAIN

60. West Suffolk (Tory) – Theresa May’s former chief of staff, Nick Timothy, standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Matt Hancock. TORY HOLD

61. Witham (Tory) – Priti Patel’s seat is super safe and has no real challengers, despite the social media presence of independent candidate Chelsey Jay. Patel will remain, and can’t be ruled out from being the next Tory leader. TORY HOLD.



East of England Results

TORY 36 (-16)

LABOUR 19 (+14)

LIB DEM 5 (+4)

Reform 1 (+1)

Conclusions: Would like to be wrong about Farage, but can't overlook current evidence. At least half of these Tory holds are relatively marginal. In fact, over 100 of the Tory holds I predict are likely to be very close, and could easily go the other way on the day. 

East Midlands (47)

1. Amber Valley (Tory) – Nigel Mills. Relatively quiet up here, locals report. Another 16k majority YouGov claims will go Labour, due to a direct Tory/Reform vote split. Mills managed to hold his seat in 2015 despite being caught playing Candy Crush on his phone during a parliamentary meeting! TORY HOLD

2. Ashfield (Tory) – Lee Anderson, current MP, is standing for Reform. Jason Zadrozny is running again. Add in Labour and the Tories and you have a four way marginal, though it may come down to Lee Anderson vs Labour. Lee Anderson benefitted from very split opposition last time and he’s got it again. REFORM GAIN/ANDERSON HOLDS.

3. Bassetlaw (Tory) – Brendan Clarke-Smith. This went Tory last time out with the added help of the outgoing Labour MP telling people to vote Tory. With a 12.5k majority I had assumed back in 2019 it was gone from Labour for the foreseeable future. The Reform candidate is the 86 year old father of a Labour mayor. The sort of area that has been shifting violently to Labour as quickly as it shifted away. LABOUR GAIN

4. Bolsover (Tory) – Mark Fletcher. The end of an era last time as socialist Dennis Skinner lost his seat after 49 years. This time the Tories hold a 5.2k majority, in an area that had been shifting Tory for a while demographically. See, in a normal election I’d call this a Tory hold, with demographics and the double incumbency boost which often helps first time MPs. However, if the Tory vote has collapsed as much as the polling and by-elections suggest, none of these previous rules work. So I’ll have to go by current evidence and say LABOUR GAIN, against my own preconceptions.

5. Boston and Skegness (Tory) – Matt Warman. The second safest Tory seat in the country, now being talked up as a possible Reform win for Richard Tice. I think Labour are too far back to make an inroad here, and that the Tory vote is surely too robust for Reform. TORY HOLD

6. Hinckley and Bosworth (Tory) – Luke Evans. Should be safe, though Sunak campaigning here was odd. TORY HOLD

7. Broxtowe (Tory) – Darren Henry. The former seat of Anna Soubry was a marginal throughout this government. Between the small (3.7%) swing required, and a Tory councillor running as an independent to dig further into the Tory vote, LABOUR GAIN

8. Chesterfield (Labour) – Toby Perkins. Safe Labour seat. LABOUR HOLD

9. Corby and East Northamptonshire (Tory) – Tom Pursglove. Requires an 8% swing, is among the 100 most vulnerable Tory MPs and the sort of seat Labour will take if they are winning an election. LABOUR GAIN

10. Daventry (Tory) – former Pudsey MP Stuart Andrew standing here for the Tories. Seen as solidly Tory even now. TORY HOLD

11. Derby north (Tory) – Amanda Solloway. Only requires a 2.7% swing to Labour, the sort of seat the Tories need to be polling in the high 30s to keep. LABOUR GAIN

12. Derby South (Labour) – Baggy Shanker standing for the Labour party due to the retirement of Margaret Beckett. Chris Williamson is standing for the Workers Party. The Labour candidate was leader of Derby council until 18 June when he lost a vote of no confidence, due to issues with the Sinfin Waste Treatment Plant. The new council leader immediately appointed Baggy as deputy leader. As he is the odds on favourite to win this seat, he’s had an eventful few weeks. LABOUR HOLD

13. Derbyshire Dales (Tory) – Sarah Dines . Should be safe enough to withstand a huge Labour swing. TORY HOLD

14. Erewash (Tory) – Maggie Throup. The sort of 10k Midlands Tory majority the election will be decided over. Polling suggests this part of the world is particularly Labour friendly at the moment. LABOUR GAIN

15. Gainsborough (Tory) – Edward Leigh. Safely Tory since 1924, and safely Sir Edward Leigh’s seat since 1983, split opposition suggests this will remain the case, and Leigh might be the Father of the House in the next parliament, depending on the fate of Peter Bottomley. TORY HOLD

16. Gedling (Tory) – Tom Randall. Vernon Coaker’s defeat in 2019 was one of the bigger surprises on that night, as he had held on twice before when polling suggested he was below water. Even then, the Tories managed to take the seat by 2400 votes. The Labour candidate was picked some time ago to campaign there, and you have to imagine Michael Payne will be an MP in a fortnight’s time. LABOUR GAIN

17. Harborough Oadby and Wigston (Tory) – Neil O’Brien. Requires a 14.8% swing. Locally expected to return a Tory MP as the opposition isn’t clear. The Lib Dems used to be second in the seat, but now Labour are despite not having much local presence. TORY HOLD

18. High Peak (Tory) – Robert Largan. And here I thought Largan was standing for Labour (it’s a social media thing based on his campaign hi-jinks). This seat has a 590 vote majority, or a 0.5% swing requirement to Labour. The sort of seat the Tories might even lose if they were ahead in the polls, let alone currently trailing Reform. LABOUR GAIN

19. Kettering (Tory) – Philip Hollobone. A 17k Tory majority. The young female Labour candidate here is over a decade younger than me, did you ever start to feel ancient? It’s going to be a tough call. TORY HOLD

20. Leicester East (Labour) – Rajesh Agrawal standing for the Labour party as former MP, Claudia Webbe, is standing as an independent. Keith Vaz is also standing. This one is locally said to be hard to call, as the number of anti-Labour contestants may led to vast split voting. LABOUR HOLD, uncertainly. 

21. Leicester South (Labour) – Jonathan Ashworth. Despite attempts to ramp up the local independent and the Greens chances, this is probably super safe. LABOUR HOLD

22. Leicester West (Labour) – Liz Kendall. Safe as houses. LABOUR HOLD

23. Lincoln (Tory) – Karl McCartney. Needs a 3.4% swing to Labour. Widely expected to fall. LABOUR GAIN

24. Loughborough (Tory) – Jane Hunt. A seat which in recent times has seemed safe Tory, but which has a history post-war of being safe Tory and safe Labour and exciting marginal seat at various times in its history. In the last fifty years its been a bellwether seat of sorts, shifting with the changes of government. LABOUR GAIN

25. Louth and Horncastle (Tory) – Victoria Atkins. There is a recurring theme in the YouGov MRP that the safer the Tory seat, the larger the Reform vote. So here in Louth, the 11th safest Tory seat (27k majority, 27.4% swing needed), they are predicting a Reform win! My doubts remain. TORY HOLD

26. Mansfield (Tory) – Ben Bradley. Labour lost this in 2017 due to demographic shift. The omens have gone against the Tories in this bit of the world so badly that Bradley lost the local Mayoral race in May. That a seat like this is expected to go Labour is astonishing. LABOUR GAIN

27. Mid Derbyshire (Tory) – Luke Gardiner standing for the Tories due to Pauline Latham’s retirement. Tories heavily leafleting the area to defend it, and you’d assume the 16k majority is enough of a cushion, yet the lack of incumbent hurts. TORY HOLD, just.

28. Newark (Tory) – Robert Jenrick. A 21k majority. YouGov have it as a toss up but the anti-Tory vote is split so many ways that I can’t see a gain here. TORY HOLD

29. North East Derbyshire (Tory) – Lee Rowley. Rowley won this seat in 2017 so double incumbency, such as it is now, has been used up. This seat was Labour from 1935 to 2017, or 89 of the last 100 years. Even with a 12k majority, its widely expected to revert back to that status quo. LABOUR GAIN

30. North West Leicestershire (Tory) – Craig Smith standing for the Tories as current MP Andrew Bridgen standing as an independent. The three way split between Tories, Reform and Bridgen, the latter of whom is campaigning hard in the seat, should open the ground for Labour here. LABOUR GAIN

31. Northampton North (Tory) – Dan Bennett standing for the Tories due to Michael Ellis’s retirement. Requires a small (3.5%) swing and has no incumbent, as close to a gimme as you can get in the climate. LABOUR GAIN

32. Northampton South (Tory) – Andrew Lewer. Needs a bigger swing but still likely to fall. LABOUR GAIN

33. Nottingham East (Labour) – Nadia Whittome. LABOUR HOLD

34. Nottingham North and Kimberley (Labour) – Alex Norris. This is meant to be a Tory target (number 27 in fact) but they’ve picked a disgraced former PCC who got convicted five times of speeding while in office. Which suggests the politics of the surrender. LABOUR HOLD

35. Nottingham South (Labour) – Lillian Greenwood. LABOUR HOLD

36. Rushcliffe (Tory) – Ruth Edwards. The former safe seat of Tory Titan Ken Clarke, Rushcliffe is now increasingly a marginal and the sort of the seat would fall under any swing that brings in a Labour government, which is astonishing to those of us who remember Ken’s indomitable status. Sort of a right wing version of Bolsover, only without the aging stalwart still in the post. LABOUR GAIN

37. Mid Leicestershire (notionally Tory) – Peter Bedford standing for the Tories in this new seat. YouGov have it as likely Labour, but with a notional 20k majority, this would be a hard shift. TORY HOLD

38. Melton and Syston – (Tory) – Edward Argar. A safe Tory seat which is allegedly too close to call. The former Charnwood MP has had a bunch of minor roles under the various Tory leaders since 2015. TORY HOLD

39. Rutland and Stamford (Tory) – Alicia Kearns. Requires a 23% swing to shift, one of the safest Tory seats in the country. Second place was the Lib Dems, and now a former Lib Dem member is running against the Lib Dems in this seat on the Rejoin EU platform, because she thinks the Liberal Democrats are too pro-Brexit. TORY HOLD.

40. Grantham and Bourne (Tory) – Gareth Davies. A safe seat with very little gossip beyond it being likely held. TORY HOLD

41. Sherwood Forest (Tory) – Mark Spencer. 16k Tory majority with little said about it, bar the various MRPs which suggest its in trouble. TORY HOLD

42. Sleaford and North Hyekham (Tory) – Dr Caroline Johnson. Super safe Tory seat. TORY HOLD

43. South Derbyshire (Tory) – Heather Wheeler. My brain can’t cope with all these safe Tory seats which local wisdom assures me are going to fall. Wheeler, an OAP, doesn’t have the best of health and has seemingly stood safe in the knowledge she wont be re-elected. The area is now run by a Labour council, after the last council elections in 2023 where the Tories lost over half their seats. There’s also a Tory councillor standing as an independent against the Tories. LABOUR GAIN (WTF?)

44. South Holland and the Deepings (Tory) – John Hayes. It’s the safest Tory seat in the country. Despite some Reform ramping, should remain TORY HOLD

45. South Leicestershire (Tory) – Alberto Costa. Super safe Tory seat. TORY HOLD

46. South Northamptonshire (Tory) – Sarah Bool standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Andrea Leadsom. A former Tory leader of the council, Ian McCord, is standing here in protest of Tory infighting locally, which may add a bit of intrigue to the result. TORY HOLD

47. Wellingborough and Rushden (Labour) – Gen Kitchen. Recently won by Labour in a by-election after the removal of Peter Bone. Still has a notional 16k Tory majority, but is widely expected to remain Labour. LABOUR HOLD



East Midlands Results

TORY 20 (-15)

Labour 26 (+18)

Lib Dem 0 (no change)

Reform 1 (+1)

North East England (27)

1. North Northumberland (Tory) – Anne Marie Trevelyan. YouGov think this leans Labour due to the presence of Reform and a former Tory councillor standing as an independent. This used to be Lib Dem territory until the retirement of Alan Beith, but now they are not even second in the council elections. Not sure Labour have enough to turn this one, listen to local info. TORY HOLD

2. Bishop Auckland (Tory) – Jane MacBean standing for the Tories due to Dehenna Davison retirement. Expected to flip back to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

3. Blaydon and Consett (Labour) – Liz Twist. Safe LABOUR HOLD

4. Blyth and Ashington (Labour) – Ian Lavery. Aiming to be the first seat announced on the night for the first time. LABOUR HOLD

5. Cramlington and Killingworth (Tory) – Ian Levy. Widely expected to go to Labour, who notionally hold it on boundary changes before any swing. LABOUR GAIN

6. Newcastle East and Wallsend (Labour) – Mary Glindon. Safe LABOUR HOLD

7. Newcastle North (Labour) – Cat McKinnell. Safe LABOUR HOLD

8. Newcastle Central and West (Labour) – Chi Onwurah. Safe LABOUR HOLD

9. City of Durham (Labour) – Mary Kelly Foy. Safe LABOUR HOLD

10. Darlington (Tory) – Peter Gibson. Gibson is campaigning heavily to try and keep his seat. This seat requires a 5% swing, but the Tory council managed to keep the swing against them to under 2%. The wide expectation is Labour take the seat back, but don’t be surprised if the swing is considerably lower than neighbours. LABOUR GAIN

11. Easington (Labour) – Grahame Morris. Safe LABOUR HOLD

12. Gateshead Central and Whickham (Labour) – Mark Ferguson standing for Labour due to retirement of Ian Mearns. Likely LABOUR HOLD

13. Hartlepool (Tory) – Jill Mortimer. This seat was nearly the end of Keir Starmer in 2021, when, at the high point of Boris Johnson’s popularity, Hartlepool was lost in a by-election. Nowadays, Tory polling is considerably worse, Starmer has made a rare comeback as a party leader, and constituency polling for Hartlepool suggests it is about to become one again a Labour safe seat. LABOUR GAIN

14. Hexham (Tory) – Guy Opperman. Expected to jump back to the Labour. LABOUR GAIN

15. Houghton and Sunderland South (Labour) – Bridget Phillipson. LABOUR HOLD

16. Jarrow and Gateshead East (Labour) – Kate Osborne. Safe LABOUR HOLD

17. Middlesbrough and Thornaby East (Labour) – Andy McDonald. Likely LABOUR HOLD

18. Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (Tory) – Simon Clarke. No Reform standing in this seat. Instead the SDP picked Rod Liddle, who told everyone at the hustings to vote for the Labour candidate. In an area where the Tory vote appears to be evaporating ,an 11.4% swing isn’t safe. LABOUR GAIN

19. North Durham (Labour) – Luke Akehurst standing for Labour due to Kevan Jones retirement. Despite the controversial candidate, this will be a safe LABOUR HOLD.

20. Redcar (Tory) – Jacob Young. Former Labour MP Anna Turley running to regain her old seat. Redcar has a habit of violent shifts in swing. The Labour Attorney General was ousted in 2010 over the closure of a local factory, and then the Lib Dems themselves got booted out in 2015, only for Labour to lose in 2019. Now, the Woodsmith project in the region is to be postponed by its American owners, harming employment in Redcar, which going on recent precedent, spells doom for the Tory incumbent. LABOUR GAIN

21. Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor (Tory) – Paul Howell. Expected to be a safe LABOUR GAIN

22. South Shields (Labour) – Emma Lewell Buck. LABOUR HOLD

23. Stockton North (Labour) – Chris McDonald. Safe LABOUR HOLD

24. Stockton West (Tory) – Matt Vickers. Requires an 11% swing to Labour, and on current polling, the sort of seat they need for a majority. LABOUR GAIN

25. Sunderland Central – Labour – Lewis Atkinson standing for Labour due to retirement of Julie Elliot. The only interest here Is we might see a new face on TV early on, as Sunderland Central tends to be one of the first declarees. LABOUR HOLD

26. Tynemouth (Labour) – Alan Campbell. Safe LABOUR HOLD

27. Washington and Gateshead South (Labour) – Sharon Hodgson. LABOUR HOLD



Labour 26 (+7)

Tories 1 (-9)

North West England (73)

1. Altrincham and Sale West (Tory ) – Oliver Carroll standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Graham Brady. Former MEP Jane Brophy standing for the Lib Dems. Requires a 5.6% swing to Labour. Brady was able to keep the seat but without him, you’d expect a LABOUR GAIN

2. Ashton under Lyne (Labour) – Angela Rayner. Safe LABOUR HOLD

3. Barrow and Furness (Tory) – Simon Fell. Requires a 7.4% swing. Widely expected to return to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

4. Birkenhead (Labour) – Alison McGovern. Safe LABOUR HOLD

5. Blackburn (Labour) – Kate Hollern. Despite the loudness of the Craig Murray campaign, this should be safe LABOUR HOLD.

6. Blackley and Middleton South (Labour) – Graham Stringer. The 74 year old Graham Stringer has been MP for Blackley since 1997. LABOUR HOLD

7. Blackpool North and Fleetwood (Tory) – Paul Maynard. Widely expected to fall to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

8. Blackpool South (Tory) – currently held by Labour’s Chris Webb after by-election. The lack of Scott Benton was an added bonus to the Blackpool Labour (and apparently many of his constituents) and you’d expect Labour to build on the recent by-election here. LABOUR GAIN

9. Bolton North East (Tory) – Adele Warren standing for the Tories after retirement of Mark Logan. Mark Logan has in fact since defected to the Labour party! With a 1.28% swing and 1278 votes in it, this is an open goal. LABOUR GAIN

10. Bolton South and Walkden (Labour) – Yasmin Qureshi. LABOUR HOLD

11. Bolton West (Tory) – Chris Green. Requires a 10.65% swing. Lots of campaigning from both parties in this seat. LABOUR GAIN

12. Bootle (Labour) – Peter Dowd. Safe LABOUR HOLD

13. Burnley (Tory) Anthony Higginbotham. Requires an 0.13% swing to Labour, or 127 votes. Despite attempts to talk up anti-Labour independents here, its hard to look beyond LABOUR GAIN

14. Bury north (Tory) – James Daly. One of the ten most vulnerable Tory seats in the UK. Doomed. LABOUR GAIN

15. Bury South (Tory) – MP Christian Wakeford has defected to the Labour party. Should be a LABOUR GAIN.

16. Carlisle (Tory) – John Stevenson. Requires a 10.8% swing and is locally said to be gone. LABOUR GAIN

17. Cheadle (Tory) – Mary Robinson. Requires a 2% swing to the lib Dems. LIB DEM GAIN

18. Chorley – Lindsay Hoyle, Speaker. SPEAKER HOLDS

19. Chester North and Neston (Labour) – Samantha Dixon. Safe LABOUR HOLD

20. Congleton (Tory) – Fiona Bruce. Requires an 18.2% swing. TORY HOLD

21. Crewe and Nantwick (Tory) – Ben Fletcher standing for the Tories. Requires a 5.7% swing to Labour, locals acknowledge a heavy Labour campaign and nothing from the Tories. LABOUR GAIN

22. Chester South and Eddisbury (Tory) – Aphra Brandreth standing for the Tories due to retirement of Edward Argar. Requires an 18.7% swing and 20.8k majority. The likely new Tory MP is the daughter of Gyles Brandreth. TORY HOLD

23. Mid-Cheshire (Labour) – Andrew Cooper standing for Labour. Safe LABOUR HOLD

24. Runcorn and Helsby (Labour) – Mike Amesbury. Safe LABOUR HOLD

25. Ellesmere Port and Bromborough (Labour) – Justin Madders. Safe LABOUR HOLD

26. Fylde (Tory) – Andrew Snowden, local PPC, standing for the Tories due to Mark Menzies retirement. Despite the kerfuffle's leading to the resignation of the former MP and the grumpiness in the selection battle to replace him, a 19k majority in a seat which has been Tory since 1868, should be too big a mountain for Labour. TORY HOLD

27. Widnes and Halewood (Labour) _ Derek Twigg. Safe LABOUR HOLD

28. Hazel Grove (Tory ) – Paul Athans standing for the Tories due to William Wragg’s enforced retirement. Requires a 4.2% swing to the Lib Dems, and YouGov assume that’s a gimme. The Tory candidate believes things are a lot more different on the doorstep than the polls suggest, but then again, so apparently do Labour. With the swings the Lib Dems are achieving against the Tories of late, even halving the average due to split vote would put them in here. LIB DEM GAIN

29. Heywood and Middleton North (Tory) – Laura-Beth Thompson standing for the Tories. Likely LABOUR GAIN

30. Hyndburn (Tory) – Sara Britcliffe. Requires a 3.4% swing to Labour. Back in November 2021, when she asked a question about levelling up in her constituency in the Commons and got a reply about smart tickets from Grant Shapps, you could pinpoint the exact second Sara Britcliffe knew she had lost re-election. Things have only got worse since then, and while she’ll get the redundancy pay for losing here, this is a LABOUR GAIN

31. Knowsley (Labour) – Anneliese Midgley standing for Labour due to Geroge Kerevan’s retirement. Safe LABOUR HOLD

32. Lancaster and Wyre (Labour) – Cat Smith. LABOUR HOLD

33. Leigh and Atherton (Tory) – Michael Winstanley standing for the Tories due to retirement of James Grundy. Former Labour MP Jo Platt standing again. Andy Burnham’s old seat went Tory in 2019, but requires 293 votes to unseat the Tories, and with boundary changes before even any swing this should be an open goal. LABOUR GAIN

34. Liverpool Garston – (Labour) – Maria Eagle. Safe LABOUR HOLD

35. Liverpool Riverside (Labour) – Kim Johnson. Safe LABOUR HOLD

36. Liverpool Walton (Labour) – Dan Carden. Safe LABOUR HOLD

37. Liverpool Wavertree (Labour) – Paula Barker. Safe LABOUR HOLD

38. Liverpool West Derby (Labour) – Ian Bryne. Safe LABOUR HOLD

39. Macclesfield (Tory) – David Rutley. Requires a 9.9% swing to Labour, and has been trending towards them for a while. It has been Tory since 1918. LABOUR GAIN.

40. Makerfield (Labour) – Josh Simons standing for Labour due to the retirement of Yvonne Fovargue. Should be LABOUR HOLD

41. Gorton and Denton (Labour) – Andrew Gwynne. Safe LABOUR HOLD

42. Manchester Rusholme (Labour) - Afzal Khan. No Lib Dems standing in this seat, making it an even safer LABOUR HOLD

43. Manchester Central (Labour) – Lucy Powell. LABOUR HOLD

44. Manchester Withington (Labour) – Jeff Smith. LABOUR HOLD

45. Morecambe and Lunesdale (Tory) -David Morris. Requires a 12.7% swing. Likely LABOUR GAIN.

46. Oldham East and Saddleworth (Labour) – Debbie Abrahams. Abrahams only just held in 2019 but should increase her majority here. LABOUR HOLD

47. Oldham West Chadderton and Royton (Labour) Jim McMahon. Safe LABOUR HOLD

48. Pendle and Clitheroe (Tory) – Andrew Stephenson. Requires an 11% swing to Labour, but I am told there are issues with the local Labour party which mean a change of hands are unlikely. TORY HOLD

49. Penrith and Solway (Tory) – Mark Jenkinson. Would require a 12% swing, with Workington MP Jenkinson moving here. Apparently closer than you’d think but this area has Tory running through it like a stick of rock. TORY HOLD

50. Preston (Labour) – Mark Hendrick. Safe LABOUR HOLD

51. Ribble Valley (Tory) – Nigel Evans. Would require a 16.1% swing. Not only has Evans been Tory MP since 1992, but in the 1997 Blair landslide, he managed to increase his majority. This is the sort of MP that holds in on a storm, and is apparently quite popular locally. TORY HOLD

52. Rochdale (Workers Party) – Journalist Paul Waugh is standing for the Labour party. George Galloway won this seat in a by-election after the death of Tony Lloyd. LABOUR GAIN

53. Rossendale and Darwen (Tory) – Jake Berry. Requires a 9.5% swing to Labour. Allegedly a LABOUR GAIN.

54. Salford (Labour) – Rebecca Long Bailey. Safe LABOUR HOLD

55. Sefton Central (Labour) – Bill Esterson. Safe LABOUR HOLD

56. South Ribble (Tory) – Katherine Fletcher. Requires an 8.7% swing, and is in a fruitful area for Labour. LABOUR GAIN

57. Southport (Tory) – Damien Moore. A former Labour member is standing as an independent after not being selected. Possible LABOUR GAIN.

58. St Helens North (Labour) – David Baines standing for Labour. Safe LABOUR HOLD

59. St Helens South and Whiston (Labour) Marie Rimmer. Safe LABOUR HOLD

60. Stalybridge and Hyde (Labour) – Jonathan Reynolds. Should be a vastly increased LABOUR HOLD

61. Stockport (Labour) Navendu Mishra. Safe LABOUR HOLD

62. Stretford and Urmston (Labour) Andrew Western. Safe LABOUR HOLD

63. Tatton (Tory) – Esther McVey. YouGov and other MRPs claim this is too close to call which is insane. TORY HOLD

64. Wallasey (Labour) Angela Eagle. Safe LABOUR HOLD

65. Warrington North (Labour _ Charlotte Nichols. Safe LABOUR HOLD

66. Warrington South (Tory) – Andy Carter. Requires 1.6% swing. LABOUR GAIN

67. West Lancashire (Labour) – Ashley Dalton. Safe LABOUR HOLD

68. Westmoreland and Lonsdale (Lib Dem) – Tim Farron. When the boundaries were announced, this looked vulnerable for the Lib Dems. Then, the Tories torpedoed their own polling. Not content with that, Farron has been knocking on doors and trying to be as visible and helpful a local MP as usual. LIB DEM HOLD

69. Whitehaven and Workington (Tory notional) – new seat, Andrew Johnson standing for the Tories. Requires a 2.1% swing to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

70. Wigan (Labour ) – Lisa Nandy. Safe LABOUR HOLD

71. Wirral West (Labour) – Matthew Patrick standing for the Labour due to Margaret Greenwood retirement. LABOUR HOLD

72. Worsley and Eccles (Labour)- Michael Wheeler standing for Labour due to Barbara Keeley retirement. Safe LABOUR HOLD

73. Wythenshawe and Sale East (Labour) – Mike Kane. Safe LABOUR HOLD



Labour 62 (+20)

Tory 7 (-25)

Lib Dem 3 (+2)

Speaker 1

South West England (58)

1. Bath (Lib Dem) – Wera Hobhouse. Safe LIB DEM HOLD

2. Bournemouth East (Tory) – Tobias Ellwood. Requires a 8.9% swing. Demographics were shifting even before the poll collapse. At least Ellwood has stayed to face the music, unlike many of his former colleagues. LABOUR GAIN

3. Bournemouth West (Tory) – Conor Burns. Requires a 10.6% swing and is apparently gone. LABOUR GAIN

4. Bristol East (Labour) – Kerry McCarthy. Safe LABOUR HOLD

5. Bristol North East (Labour) – Damien Egan. Safe LABOUR HOLD

6. North East Somerset and Hanham (Tory) – Jacob Rees Mogg. Requires a 14.2% swing to Labour. This will be close but current expectations are LABOUR GAIN.

7. Frome and East Somerset (Lib Dem) – new seat. Requires a 12.9% swing. A fun three way marginal but LIB DEM GAIN is favoured.

8. Glastonbury and Somerton (Lib Dems) – Sarah Dyke. Dyke won the Somerton and Frome by-election. This new seat is made up from bits of three former Lib Dem seats. Likely LIB DEM HOLD

9. Bristol North West (Labour) – Darren Jones. Safe LABOUR HOLD

10. Bristol South (Labour) – Karin Smyth. Safe LABOUR HOLD

11. Bristol Central (Labour) – Thangam Debbonaire. Requires a 16.2% swing to the Greens. Everyone and their dog (YouGov, constituency polls, people on the doorsteps) expects the Greens to take this. GREEN GAIN

12. Camborne and Redruth (Tory) – Connor Donnithorne standing for the Tories due to the retirement of George Eustice. Requires a 9.5% swing. Another likely LABOUR GAIN.

13. Central Devon (Tory) – Mel Stride. Requires a 15.3% swing. Split opposition. TORY HOLD

14. Cheltenham (Tory) – Alex Chalk. Requires a 1.3% swing, or 1421 votes, to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems gained twice as many votes in the local elections here as the Tories. Nailed on LIB DEM GAIN

15. Christchurch (Tory) – Christopher Chope. One of the safest Tory seats in the UK, requires a 24.2% swing to shift. TORY HOLD

16. Exmouth and Exeter East (Tory) – David Reed standing for the Tories as Simon Jupp retired. Requires a 7.9% swing. A vastly split opposition. TORY HOLD

17. Honiton and Sidmouth (Lib Dem) – Richard Foord. Simon Jupp standing here for the Tories. Requires a 22.7% swing. Claire Wright, former independent heavyweight, has declared for the Lib Dems and has been campaigning heavily in the seat for them. This could be enough, and there is belief this is a LIB DEM GAIN.

18. Tiverton and Minehead – Tory – Ian Liddell Grainger. Requires a 20.9% swing. This area was won by the Lib Dems in a by-election over tractors (ahem), but the boundary shifts put it more friendly Tory. The Tory MP (formerly for Bridgwater) apparently has a negative appeal, though tbh I can’t see this in his previous election results. TORY HOLD

19. Bridgwater (Tory) - new seat, Ashley Fox. Requires an 18.6% swing. While not expected to win, Labour will probably dig heavily into that majority. TORY HOLD

20. Exeter – (Labour) – Steve Race standing for Labour to replace retiring Ben Bradshaw. LABOUR HOLD

21. Filton and Bradley Stoke (Tory) – Jack Lopresti. Requires a 7.6% swing to Labour. Should be a Labour win if they’re going to be the next government. LABOUR GAIN

22. Forest of Dean (Tory) – Mark Harper. Requires a 15% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

23. Gloucester (Tory) – Richard Graham. Requires a 9.7% swing. LABOUR GAIN

24. Mid Dorset and North Poole (Tory) – Michael Tomlinson. Requires a 15.1% swing. Too close to call. TORY HOLD

25. Newton Abbott (Tory) – Anne Marie Morris. Requires a 16.6% swing. Will be a much reduced majority. TORY HOLD

26. North Cornwall (Tory) – Scott Mann. Requires a 14.6% swing. TORY HOLD

27. North Devon (Tory) – Selaine Saxby. Requires a 13% swing to the Lib Dems, and the Tories finished top here in the May elections. TORY HOLD

28. North Dorset (Tory) – Simon Hoare. Requires a 21.7% swing. This is one of those seats even those meltdown MRPs find stay Tory. TORY HOLD

29. North Somerset (Tory) – Liam Fox. Requires a 14.2% swing. Odd, normally the Labour party aren’t in favour of fox hunting. The idea a place which has been Fox’s since 1992 and Tory since 1910 is under threat is staggering, yet locally he’s apparently doomed. LABOUR GAIN

30. Plymouth Moor View (Tory) – Johnny Mercer. Requires a 13.7% swing. LABOUR GAIN

31. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Labour) – Luke Pollard. Safe LABOUR HOLD

32. Poole (Tory) – Robert Syms. Requires a 19% swing. Apparently very close, with Cabinet members campaigning in the seat to try and keep it Tory. TORY HOLD

33. Salisbury (Tory) – John Glen. Requires a 17.8% swing. Between split opposition and the local ground game, Labour activists don’t expect anything but a TORY HOLD.

34. South Dorset (Tory) – Richard Drax. Requires a 17.2% swing to get rid of the man who sounds like a Bond villain. Low expectations from campaign of anything but a TORY HOLD

35. South East Cornwall (Tory) – Sheryll Murray. Requires a 19.3% swing. A long shot for anyone but TORY HOLD

36. South West Devon (Tory) – Rebecca Smith standing for retiring Gary Streeter. Requires a 20.5% swing. TORY HOLD

37. South West Wiltshire (Tory) – Andrew Murrison. Requires an 18.4% swing. Apparently shockingly close, as the Lib Dems have focused on other targets nearby, and Reform are eating up a lot of the Tory majority. Plus, the D-Day Debacle has gone down badly. One of those seats where the swing against the Tories will be huge but they just hang on. TORY HOLD

38. St Austell and Newquay (Tory) – Steve Double. Requires 14.4% swing. Apparently close due to Tory/Reform split. TORY HOLD

39. St Ives (Tory) – Derek Thomas. One of the fun election battles. Sunak has campaigned here. Requires a 4.8% swing. This is the 5th straight Derek Thomas v Andrew George fight for a parliament seat. It currently stands at 3-1 Thomas. Andrew George’s loyalty to the cause (he has been Lib Dem candidate every election since 1992 and was the MP since 1997-2015) gives him a considerable local platform and in 2015 (though he lost) his vote held up far better than most Lib Dem defeats. This also helps the anti-Tory vote in that this is one of the most obvious seats in the UK who it is you vote for if you don’t want the Tory to win. Between the small swing, the local angle, and the Tory implosion, Andrew George’s decade long exile from parliament is nearly over. LIB DEM GAIN

40. Stroud (Tory) – Siobhan Baillie. Requires a 2% swing, the 20th most vulnerable Tory seat. Rishi Sunak has visited this seat. LABOUR GAIN

41. Swindon North (Tory) – Justin Tomlinson. Requires a 14% swing but is apparently even further gone to Labour. LABOUR GAIN.

42. Swindon South (Tory) – Robert Buckland. Labour are easily expected to find the 5.7% swing they need to unseat the former Cabinet minister here. LABOUR GAIN

43. Taunton and Wellington (Tory) – Rebecca Pow. Requires a 7.8% swing. Heavy Lib Dem presence in an area which had a Lib Dem MP until Nick Clegg happened. LIB DEM GAIN

44. Tewkesbury (Tory) – Laurence Robertson. Requires an 18% swing. TORY HOLD

45. North Cotswolds (Tory) – Geoffrey Clifton-Brown. Requires a 20.6% swing. TORY HOLD

46. South Cotswolds (Tory) – James Gray. Apparently there is local panic, akin to Scottish Labour, of the type seen when a safe seat is suddenly competitive. Surely not though. TORY HOLD

47. Chippenham (Tory) – Nic Puntis standing for new seat. Requires a 13% swing. Ed Davey has campaigned here. Widely expected to go LIB DEM GAIN.

48. Melksham and Devizes (Tory) – Michelle Donelan. Requires a 15.3% swing. Is apparently very tight between Tories and Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

49. East Wiltshire (Tory) Danny Kruger. Requires a 25% swing. TORY HOLD

50. Thornbury and Yate (Tory) – Luke Hall. Requires a 12.9% swing. The Tory MP is refusing to attend hustings. Apparently a possible LIB DEM GAIN.

51. Torbay (Tory) – Kevin Foster. Requires a 17.4% swing. Ed Davey has campaigned here. LIB DEM GAIN

52. Torridge and Tavistock (Tory) – Geoffrey Cox. Sunak has campaigned here in this safe Tory party of the world. If the Tories lost here they wouldn’t have ten MPs. TORY HOLD

53. South Devon – (Tory) – Anthony Mangnall. Requires a 12.6% swing. Apparently the Lib Dems are gaining a lot of support here. LIB DEM GAIN

54. Truro and Falmouth (Tory) – Cherilyn Mackrory.. Requires a 4% swing. LABOUR GAIN

55. Wells and Mendip Hills (Tory) – Meg Powell Chandler standing for the Tories after James Heappey retired. Requires a 12.6% swing. Tessa Munt, Lib Dem MP for Wells 2010-15, is standing here. This is her 6th election as the Lib Dem candidate in Wells, and this time she is heavily backed to make a return to parliament in her sixties. LIB DEM GAIN

56. West Dorset (Tory) – Chris Loder. Requires a 10.7% swing. The Lib Dems finished top here at the local elections. This seat (formerly Oliver Letwins) has been Tory since 1885. Reform aren’t standing here. Expected LIB DEM GAIN

57. Weston Super Mare (Tory) – John Penrose. Requires a 14% swing to Labour. Tory woes combined with a strong Labour candidate mean this is an expected LABOUR GAIN

58. Yeovil (Tory) – Marcus Fysh. Requires a 13.5% swing to the Lib Dems. Ed Davey has campaigned here. Close but possible LIB DEM GAIN



Tory 24 (-24)

Labour 19 (+13)

Lib Dem 14 (+13_

Greens 1 (+1)

West Midlands (57)

1. Aldridge Brownhills (Tory) – Wendy Morton. Requires a 24% swing. Super safe TORY HOLD

2. Birmingham Edgbaston (Labour) – Preet Gill. LABOUR HOLD

3. Birmingham Erdington (Labour) – Paulette Hamilton. LABOUR HOLD

4. Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (Labour) – Tahir Ali. LABOUR HOLD

5. Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North (Labour) – Liam Byrne. LABOUR HOLD

6. Birmingham Ladywood (Labour) – Shabana Mahmood. LABOUR HOLD

7. Birmingham Northfield (Tory) – Gary Samvbrook. Requires a 1.8% swing. LABOUR GAIN

8. Birmingham Perry Barr (Labour) – Khalid Mahmood. LABOUR HOLD

9. Birmingham Selly Oak (Labour) – Alistair Carns standing for Labour due to retirement of Steve McCabe. LABOUR HOLD

10. Birmingham Yardley (Labour) – Jess Phillips. LABOUR HOLD

11. Bromsgrove (Tory) – Bradley Thomas standing for the Tories due to retirement of Sajid Javid. Requires a 21.2% swing. Local Labour infighting. TORY HOLD

12. Burton and Uttoxeter (Tory) – Katre Kniveton. Requires a 14.9% swing. TORY HOLD

13. Cannock Chase (Tory) – Amanda Milling. Requires a 21.4% swing. TORY HOLD

14. Coventry East (Labour) – Former Labour MP Mary Creagh running for Labour due to retirement of Colleen Fletcher. LABOUR HOLD

15. Coventry North West (Labour) – Taiwo Owatemi. LABOUR HOLD

16. Coventry South (Labour) – Zarah Sultana. LABOUR HOLD

17. Dudley (Tory) – Marco Longhi. Requires a 16.1% swing. Seemingly doomed. LABOUR GAIN

18. Halesowen (Tory) – James Morris. Requires a 13.8% swing. Allegedly a LABOUR GAIN

19. Hereford and South Herefordshire (Tory) – Jesse Norman. Requires a 20.8% swing. TORY HOLD

20. Kenilworth and Southam (Tory) – Jeremy Wright. Requires a 19.99% swing, with a majority of 22k. Safe TORY HOLD

21. Lichfield (Tory) – Michael Fabricant. Requires a 21.5% swing. TORY HOLD

22. Meriden and Solihull East (Tory) – Saqub Bhatti. Requires a 20.8% swing. TORY HOLD

23. Droitwich and Evesham (Tory) – Nigel Huddleston. Requires a 24.3% swing. TORY HOLD

24. Newcastle under Lyme (Tory) – Simon Tagg standing for the Tories due to retirement of Aaron Bell. Requires an 8.7% swing. Widely expect to become a LABOUR GAIN

25. North Herefordshire (Tory) – Bill Wigin. It’s apparently become a Tory v Green marginal. Nah, TORY HOLD, surely.

26. North Shropshire (Lib Dem) – Helen Morgan. Clwyd South Tory MP Simon Baynes is standing here. In normal times requires a near 20% swing but after the Lib Dems won this in a by-election, the Lib Dem MP has put a lot of local effort into campaigning for the area, so could well hold this seat. LIB DEM HOLD.

27. North Warwickshire and Bedworth (Tory) – Craig Tracey. Requires a 19.5% swing. TORY HOLD

28. Nuneaton (Tory) – Marcus Jones. Requires a 14.5% swing. Expected to shift to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

29. Redditch (Tory) – Rachel Maclean. Requires a 19.3% swing. YouGov are predicting a 24% swing. Hmm. TORY HOLD

30. Rugby (Tory) – Yousef Dahmash standing for the Tories due to retirement of Mark Pawsey. Requires a 13.1% swing. Labour made in roads at the locals. TORY HOLD

31. Shrewsbury (Tory) – Daniel Kawczynski. Requires a 6.9% swing. Widely expected to become a LABOUR GAIN

32. Solihull West and Shirley (Tory) – Neil Shastri-Hurst standing for the Tories due to the removal of former Tory MP Julian Knight, who is also standing as an independent. Despite the three way split in the Tory vote, there’s no clear opposition to the Tories here. TORY HOLD

33. South Shropshire (Tory) – Stuart Anderson. Requires a 24.8% swing to the Lib Dems and is apparently too close to call which is insane. Surely a TORY HOLD

34. Stafford (Tory) – Theo Clarke. Requires a 13.4% swing. Could be close. TORY HOLD

35. Staffordshire Moorlands (Tory) – Karen Bradley. Requires an 18.7% swing. TORY HOLD

36. Stoke central (Tory) – Chandra Kanneganti standing for the Tories as Jo Gideon standing down. Former Stoke MP Gareth Snell running for Labour. Requires a 2.1% swing to Labour. LABOUR GAIN.

37. Stoke North (Tory) – Jonathan Gullis. Requires a 9.6% swing. Doomed. LABOUR GAIN

38. Stoke South (Tory) _ Jake Brereton. Requires a 16.4% swing. Seemingly swinging heavily away from the Tories. At the local elections in Stoke, there was a 14.5% swing to Labour. TORY HOLD

39. Stone, Great Wyreley and Penkridge (Tory) – Gavin Williamson. Requires a 23% swing. No Reform candidate. TORY HOLD

40. Kingswinford and South Staffordshire (Tory)- Mike Wood. Requires a 28.7% swing, is the 7th safest Tory seat in the land. TORY HOLD

41. Stourbridge (Tory) – Suzanne Webb. Requires a 16.3% swing. Apparently close. TORY HOLD

42. Stratford on Avon (Tory) – Heywood and Middleton MP Chris Clarkson standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Nadim Zahawi. Requires a 17.7% swing. Ed Davey has campaigned here, and there’s a local belief the Lib Dems are favoured. LIB DEM GAIN

43. Sutton Coldfield (Tory) – Andrew Mitchell. Requires an 18.4% swing. TORY HOLD

44. Tamworth (Labour) – Sarah Edwards. Former Walsall MP Eddie Hughes is running here for the Tories. Very close, Labour might just hold on. LABOUR HOLD

45. Telford (Tory) – Hannah Campbell is running for the Tories after the former Tory MP, Lucy Allan, quit the party and told voters to vote for Reform. Requires a 12.5% swing. LABOUR GAIN

46. The Wrekin (Tory) – Mark Pritchard. Requires a 20.2% swing. TORY HOLD

47. Walsall and Bloxwich (Labour) – Valerie Vaz. LABOUR HOLD

48. Smethwick (Labour) - Gurdiner Josan standing for the Labour party due to retirement of John Spellar. LABOUR HOLD

49. Warwick and Leamington (Labour) – Matt Western. The winner of the constituency name that sounds most like a John Betjeman poem. LABOUR HOLD

50. West Bromwich (Tory)_ Will Goodhand standing for the Tories due to Nicola Richards retirement. Requires a 2.6% swing. LABOUR GAIN

51. Tipton and Wednesbury (Tory) – Shaun Bailey. Requires a 6.1% swing. Likely LABOUR GAIN

52. West Worcestershire (Tory)- Harriet Baldwin. Requires a 21.2% swing. TORY HOLD

53. Wolverhampton North East (Tory) Jane Stevenson. Requires a 9.9% swing. The sort of seat that looked like it could be safe in 2019. LABOUR GAIN.

54. Wolverhampton South East (Labour) – Pat McFadden. LABOUR HOLD

55. Wolverhampton West (Tory) – Mike Newton standing for the Tories due to retirement of Stuart Anderson. Requires a 0.9% swing, or 934 votes. LABOUR GAIN

56. Worcester (Tory) – Marc Bayliss standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Robin Walker. Requires a 6.6% swing. Likely LABOUR GAIN

57. Wyre Forest (Tory) – Mark Garnier. Requires a 21.1% swing, and there’s a former Labour councillor standing against Labour. TORY HOLD



Tory 25 -19

Labour 30 +15

Lib Dem 2 +2

 

Yorkshire and Humberside (54)

1. Barnsley North (Labour) – Dan Jarvis. YouGov have Reform very close here but Labour campaigners don’t believe it. LABOUR HOLD then.

2. Barnsley South (Labour) – Stephanie Peacock. LABOUR HOLD

3. Beverley and Holderness (Tory) – Graham Stuart. Requires an 18.2% swing. TORY HOLD

4. Bradford East (Labour) – Imran Hussain. LABOUR HOLD

5. Bradford South (Labour) Judith Cummins. LABOUR HOLD

6. Bradford West (Labour) – Naz Shah. LABOUR HOLD, despite the vast number of anti-Labour independents.

7. Calder Valley (Tory) – Vanessa Lee standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Craig Whittaker. Requires a 4.5% swing. Should fall under the current polling. LABOUR GAIN

8. Colne Valley (Tory) – Jason McCartney. Requires a 7.4% swing. Another seat widely expected to fall to Labour. LABOUR GAIN

9. Goole and Pocklington (Tory) – David Davis. Requires a 22.2% swing. Might be closer than usual due to the anti-Tory swing in the country as a whole, but of all MPs you’d expect to weather the storm, David Davis is certainly one of them, having survived two landslides in the local area already. TORY HOLD

10. Doncaster Central (Labour) – Sally Jameson standing for the Labour due to Rosie Wintertons retirement. LABOUR HOLD

11. Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme (Tory) – Nick Fletcher. Requires an 11.7% swing and despite adding more Tory friendly areas, expected. LABOUR GAIN

12. Doncaster North (Labour) – Ed Miliband. Was only narrowly held in 2019 due to the Red Wall cracking but should be a considerably safer majority in a fortnights time. LABOUR HOLD

13. Bridlington and the Wolds (Tory) – Charlie Dewhirst standing for the Tories due to Greg Knight retirement. Requires a 23.3% swing. TORY HOLD

14. Brigg and Immingham (Tory ) – Martin Vickers. Requires a 25.8% swing. TORY HOLD

15. Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes (Tory) – Lia Nici. Was safe Labour until 2019. With boundary changes is now 11.7% swing required. LABOUR GAIN

16. Halifax (Labour) – Kate Dearden standing for Labour due to the retirement of Holly Lynch. LABOUR HOLD

17. Harrogate and Knaresborough (Tory) – Andrew Jones. Requires a 7.9% swing and the Lib Dems are heavily targeting it. LIB DEM GAIN

18. Normanton and Hemsworth (Labour) – Jon Trickett. LABOUR HOLD

19. Huddersfield (Labour) – Harpreet Uppal standing for Labour due to the retirement of Barry Sheerman. LABOUR HOLD

20. Keighley and Ilkley (Tory) – Robbie Moore. Requires a 2.1% swing. One of those marginals that swings between parties. LABOUR GAIN

21. Hull East (Labour) – Karl Turner. LABOUR HOLD

22. Hull North and Cottingham (Labour) – Diana Johnson. LABOUR HOLD

23. Hull West and Haltemprice (Labour) – Emma Hardy. LABOUR HOLD

24. Leeds South (Labour) – Hilary Benn. LABOUR HOLD

25. Leeds East (Labour) – Richard Burgon. LABOUR HOLD

26. Leeds North east (Labour) – Fabian Hamilton. LABOUR HOLD

27. Leeds Central and Headingley (Labour) – Alex Sobel. LABOUR HOLD

28. Leeds North West (Tory) – Thomas Averre standing for the Tories due to Stuart Andrew retirement. Requires a 1.8% swing, and 2001 votes. LABOUR GAIN

29. Leeds West and Pudsey (Labour) – Rachel Reeves. LABOUR HOLD

30. Leeds South West and Morley (Tory) – Andrea Jenkyns. Requires an 8.2% swing. One of the few Tory seats to openly admit it looks disastrous on the doorstep! LABOUR GAIN

31. Wakefield and Rothwell (Labour) – Simon Lightwood. LABOUR HOLD

32. Ossett and Denby Dale (Tory) – Mark Eastwood. Requires an 11.3% swing. Seemingly likely LABOUR GAIN

33. Dewsbury and Batley (Labour) – Heather Iqbal standing for Labour in this new seat. There is a lot of momentum behind the pro-Gaza independent here, and Labour sources say its too close to call. INDEPENDENT GAIN.

34. Spen Valley (Labour) – Kim Leadbeater. Notionally Tory but the locally popular Labour MP Is expected to reverse that easy enough. LABOUR HOLD

35. Pontefract Castleford and Knottingley (Labour) – Yvette Cooper. LABOUR HOLD

36. Penistone and Stocksbridge (Tory) – Miram Cates. Requires a 7.2% swing, which is widely expected. LABOUR GAIN

37. Rawmarsh and Conisbrough (Labour)- John Healey. LABOUR HOLD, despite some Reform ramping.

38. Richmond and Northallerton (Tory) – Rishi Sunak, Despite the fun of recent polling here, I can’t see the PM losing his seat, even if making that D-Day blunder in a seat where 25% of the votes come from the military was…brave. TORY HOLD

39. Rother Valley (Tory) – Alexander Stafford. That the Tory party vote held up well here in the locals could be relevant, or a general election could be entirely different and this is a LABOUR GAIN

40. Rotherham (Labour) – Sarah Champion. The Tories forgot to stand here, and while some might go “oooh Reform gain?” ramping as a result of that, I can only see a vastly increased majority for Sarah Champion. LABOUR HOLD

41. Scarborough and Whitby (Tory) 0- Roberto Weedon-Sanz standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Robert Goodwin. Requires a 10.3% swing. One thing you don’t want to hear during an election, if you are holding a marginal at risk, is that one of the major employers in the seat (Woodsmith Mine) is going to be cutting jobs. LABOUR GAIN

42. Scunthorpe – Tory – Holly Mumby-Croft. Requires a 10.7% swing. Expected to be LABOUR GAIN.

43. Selby (Labour) – Keir Mather. Requires a 14% swing to remain Labour after the by-election. That Mather is expected to confirm his spot for a full term is a testament to his efforts in the region. LABOUR HOLD

44. Sheffield Central (Labour) – Abtisam Mohaned standing for Labour due to the retirement of Paul Blomfield. OMG will the Greens take this in a shock gain? No. But maybe they’ll finish second. LABOUR HOLD

45. Sheffield South East (Labour) – Clive Betts. LABOUR HOLD

46. Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough (Labour)- Gil Furniss. No Reform in Sheffield, but even so, LABOUR HOLD

47. Sheffield Hallam (Labour) – Olivia Blake. The only Labour v Lib Dem marginal in the election. Hard to call, a coin toss says. LIB DEM GAIN

48. Sheffield Heeley (Labour) – Louise Haigh. LABOUR HOLD

49. Shipley (Tory) Philip Davies. Requires a 5.7% swing. Unfounded rumours suggested it had shifted in 2017. Widely expected that the 19 year parliament career of Davies will come to an end here. LABOUR GAIN

50. Skipton and Ripon (Tory) – Julian Smith. Requires a 19.8% swing. The idea such seats are in the mix is insane to me. TORY HOLD

51. Thirsk and Malton (Tory) – Kevin Hollinrake. Requires a 22.4% swing. TORY HOLD

52. Wetherby and Easingwold (Tory) – Alec Shelbrooke. Requires a 24.9% swing. Safe TORY HOLD

53. York Central (Labour) Rachel Maskell. LABOUR HOLD

54. York Outer (Tory) – Julian Sturdy. Requires a 9.8% swing. Expected to be a vote collapse. LABOUR GAIN



Labour 43 +15

Tory 8 -18

Lib Dem 2 +2

Independent 1 +1

 

Northern Ireland (18)

As usual, I do not have the local knowledge to look over the N Irish seats, though if the DUP do suffer a 9 point drop as polls suggest, they could be in trouble in one or two of their seats.

Scotland (57)

1. Aberdeen North (SNP) – Kirsty Blackman. Alba and Greens both standing here, but even so, should remain SNP HOLD.

2. Aberdeen South (SNP) – Stephen Flynn. Meant to be a lot closer than the polling, though SNP HOLD for now.

3. Airdrie and Shotts (SNP) – Anum Qaisar. Is apparently gone. LABOUR GAIN

4. Angus and Perthshire Glens (SNP) – Dave Doogan. The SNP vote is holding up better than expected north of Perth apparently, and the Tories being the main challengers probably help the SNP HOLD.

5. Argyll Bute and South Lochaber (SNP) Brendan O’Hara. SNP HOLD.

6. Aye Carrick and Cumnock (SNP) - An incumbent-less seat in a three way marginal. Former Ayrshire SNP MP Corri Blake is standing here as an Alba candidate, so through the middle, LABOUR GAIN

7. Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (Tory) – Douglas Ross standing for the Tories after removing David Duguid. Ross is unpopular as Tory leader, he’s stitched up the relatively popular Duguid from his hospital bed. Die in the wool Tory names in the area were telling folk to vote SNP over Ross. Labour have disowned their own candidate for pro-Putin posts on social media. SNP GAIN

8. Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk (Tory) – John Lamont. TORY HOLD

9. Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross (Lib Dem) – Jamie Stone. Was quite close last time and the SNP are campaigning hard here. The last time the Liberals went an election without losing an incumbent defending their seat was 1955, and Stone may keep that run going here. SNP GAIN

10. Inverness Skye and West Rossshire (SNP) – Drew Hendry. Lib Dems campaigning hard here, they want the old stomping grounds of Charlie Kennedy back. YouGov think this is impossible. Locals think its close. Hmm. SNP HOLD, just.

11. Central Ayrshire (SNP) – Despite the fact that there is no incumbent, you can get big odds on Labour winning at the bookies here as the SNP vote is believed to hold up better than elsewhere. Do you remember when I said that about the Labour vote here in 2015? Yes, I make the same prediction errors all the time. SNP HOLD

12. Coatbridge and Belshill (SNP) – Steven Bonnar. A seat which has been kinder than most to Labour since the SNP tsunami, and which will likely revert back to them. LABOUR GAIN

13. Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch (SNP) – Stuart McDonald. A tight battle expected. SNP HOLD

14. Dumfries and Galloway (Tory) – With Aleistar Jack retiring, this is likely to be a Tory v Labour marginal, though Labour start from considerably far off. TORY HOLD

15. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (David Mundell). Nuclear war would not get rid of David Mundell. TORY HOLD

16. Arbroath and Broughty Ferrry (SNP) – Stephen Gethins running for the SNP after Stewart Hosie’s retirement. It was a safe seat under Hosie, it will remain a safe seat under Gethins. SNP HOLD

17. Dundee Central (SNP) – Chris Law. Safest SNP seat in Scotland. SNP HOLD

18. Dunfermline and Dollar (SNP) – An incumbent less seat in a Labour solid area. LABOUR GAIN

19. Mid Dunbartonshire (SNP) – Amy Callaghan. Amy Callaghan is standing again for the SNP despite declining health. Going to be a tight one yet again. LIB DEM GAIN

20. East Kilbride and Strathhaven (SNP) – Has no incumbent as the previous MP defected to the Tories. The Labour candidate choice of Joani Reid, daughter of socialist firebrand Jimmy, may be a masterstroke in this part of the world. LABOUR GAIN

21. Lothian East (Alba) – An Alba held seat. Douglas Alexander is standing here for Labour because he thinks he’ll get an easy route back into the Cabinet. He’s probably right. LABOUR GAIN

22. East Renfrewshire (SNP) – Kirsten Oswald. A three way marginal which might squeeze the Tories out of it, SNP HOLD

23. Edinburgh East and Musselburgh (SNP) – Tommy Sheppard. A very tight battle between Sheppard and a human rights lawyer, SNP HOLD, just.

24. Edinburgh North and Leith (SNP) – Deidre Brock. A former colleague of my best man, Brock’s seat is said to be among the most tightly contested in Scotland this time around. SNP HOLD, though not with confidence.

25. Edinburgh South (Labour ) – Ian Murray. LABOUR HOLD

26. Edinburgh South West (SNP) – Joanna Cherry. YouGov say Cherry will hold on, locals say Labour are likely to win here. I’ll side with the locals. LABOUR GAIN

27. Edinburgh West (Lib Dem) – Christine Jardine. No sign of much campaigning here, apparently. LIB DEM HOLD (though YouGov claim easy SNP gain!!!)

28. Falkirk (SNP) – John McNally has retired here, and the SNP have replaced him with Toni Giugliano, the guy they pick when they don’t intend to win a seat. There is a degree of “if he can’t win this” but I was all ready to say SNP hold until I saw the candidate. LABOUR GAIN

29. Glasgow East (SNP) – David Linden. LABOUR GAIN

30. Glasgow North (SNP) – Alison Thewliss. Locally popular MP and recent elections have shown smaller swings here. SNP HOLD

31. Glasgow North East (SNP) – Anne McLaughlin. McLaughlin has a good record of getting elected and a bad record of holding those wins. LABOUR GAIN

32. Glasgow West (SNP) – Carol Monaghan. LABOUR GAIN

33. Glasgow South (SNP) – Stuart McDonald. One of the tighter fights in Glasgow and Labour have been heavily targeting it. On an unrelated note, this is my mum’s constituency so SNP HOLD is my diplomatic answer.

34. Glasgow South West (SNP) – Chris Stephens. My local, hard working, liked MP. He’s doomed. LABOUR GAIN

35. Glenrothes and Mid Fife (SNP). An incumbent less SNP seat. LABOUR GAIN

36. Gordon and Buchan (SNP) – Richard Thomson. Is now notionally a safe Tory seat. Depends if you believe this is an anti-Tory election up north, or an anti-SNP one, more. Me? SNP HOLD

37. Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West (SNP) -Ronnie Cowan. This seat was only narrowly held in 2017, and now has Alba standing and the Scottish Greens. LABOUR GAIN.

38. Kilmarnock and Loudon (SNP) – Alan Brown. Another tough battle but Labour would have to come from third to win so I think Brown will just hang on. SNP HOLD

39. Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy (Alba) – Neale Hanvey. Gordon Brown Country. The previous Labour candidate was removed for historic tweets and has been replaced by a left winger. Shockeroonie. LABOUR GAIN

40. Hamilton and Clyde Valley (SNP). A lack of incumbent defending this seat in the Central Belt makes it more difficult to hold. LABOUR GAIN

41. Bathgate and Linlithgow (SNP) – Martyn Day. Apparently a likely LABOUR GAIN.

42. Livingston (SNP) – Hannah Bardell. I’d have assumed the MP plus the majority would be just enough to hold off Labour. SNP HOLD

43. Midlothian (SNP) – Owen Thompson. It’s the SNP Chief Whip vs a Gordon Brown protégé. This went Labour under Corbyn and will probably go Labour again. LABOUR GAIN

44. Moray West Nairn and Strathspey (Tory). Notionally SNP. SNP GAIN.

45. Motherwell Wishaw and Carluke (SNP) – Marion Fellows. Requires a 9% swing but Sarwar and Swinney are campaigning in those seats. Former MP Pamela Nash is trying to make a comeback. LABOUR GAIN

46. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (SNP) – former SNP MP Angus MacNeil standing as an independent. When you gain the Western Isles, you keep them for a generation. Torcuil Crichton seems the most gimme pick of the Scottish election. LABOUR GAIN

47. North Ayrshire and Arran (SNP) – Patricia Gibson. SNP HOLD

48. North East Fife (Lib Dem) – Wendy Chamberlain. Likely LIB DEM HOLD

49. Alloa and Grangemouth (SNP) – John Nicolson. Regarded as a solidly safe SNP area, though Kenny McAskill is now standing here for Alba. As the Workers Party despite all that talk of Alba and WP not standing in each other’s way. This makes it tighter than it should be, but this remains one of the safest SNP seats in Scotland. SNP HOLD

50. Orkney and Shetland (Lib Dem) – Aastair Carmichael. LIB DEM HOLD

51. Paisley North (SNP) – Gavin Newlands. A man with an 11k majority over Labour. I think the SNP hopes of holding Paisley died when Mhairi Black stood down. LABOUR GAIN

52. Paisley South (SNP) – With Mhairi Black I think they’d have held on. Without her, doomed. LABOUR GAIN

53. Perth and Kinross-shire (SNP) – Pete Wishart. One of the narrowest SNP majorities in Scotland, yet the SNP have held on to the seat since 1995 and both they and Wishart himself have proven able to hold onto the seat in dire circumstances (2001, 2005, 2017, 2019, to name a few). I think he’ll hold on against the odds once more. SNP HOLD

54. Rutherglen (Labour) – Michael Shanks. Labour won this in a by-election. This was one of the narrowest Lab/SNP seats in Scotland so if the polls are accurate this should be a LABOUR HOLD.

55. Stirling and Strathallan (SNP) – Alyn Smith. Popular MP Smith has a notional lead of around 9k over the Tories. The combination of the MP strength, the demise of the Tories and the fact Labour haven’t really been targeting the seat should mean SNP HOLD.

56. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Tory) – Andrew Bowie. TORY HOLD

57. West Dunbartonshire (SNP) – Martin Docherty-Hughes. An area of the world where the Labour vote has held up – they hold the council and the SNP failed to oust Jackie Baillie thrice. LABOUR GAIN



SNP 24 (-24)

Labour 25 (+24)

Tory 4 (-2)

Lib Dem 4 (NC)

South East England (91)

1. Aldershot (Tory) Leo Docherty. Requires a 17.3% swing, but Labour have been campaigning heavily here and even got a Starmer visit, which suggests they know more than we do. It’s a seat with a huge military vote where Labour just won the council. A century of Tory dominance in one seat could be nearly at an end. LABOUR GAIN

2. Arundel and South Downs (Tory) – Andrew Griffith. Requires a 20.1% swing. TORY HOLD

3. Ashford (Tory) – Damian Green. Requires a 17.7% swing. Green one of the few current Tories I have much time for. Apparently expected to be done though. LABOUR GAIN

4. Weald of Kent (Tory) Katie Lam standing for the Tories in this new seat. Super super safe TORY HOLD

5. Aylesbury (Tory) – Rob Butler. Bet365 had this as 50/1 odds on the Lib Dems. With a 14.3% swing its seen as too close to call. TORY HOLD

6. Banbury (Tory) – Victoria Prentis. Requires a 13.5% swing and is expectedly locally to change hands. LABOUR GAIN

7. Bicester and Woodstock (Tory) – Rupert Harrison. Requires a 13.6% swing. The Tories got badly gubbed here during the locals. LIB DEM GAIN

8. Basingstoke (Tory) – Maria Miller. Requires a 12% swing. Seemingly vulnerable under the expected swing. LABOUR GAIN

9. Beaconsfield (Tory) – Joy Morrissey. TORY HOLD

10. Bexhill and Battle (Tory) – Keiran Mullan replacing the retiring Huw Merriman. Requires a 20.4% swing. Remember when Poirot investigated a murder here? TORY HOLD

11. Bognor Regis and Littlehampton (Tory) – Alison Griffiths replacing the retiring Nick Gibb. Requires a 21.2% swing, and yet locally its expected the Tories will echo George V and say bugger Bognor. Apparently Labour are doing very well with voters here, so going on the local info, LABOUR GAIN.

12. Bracknell (Tory) – James Sunderland. Leah Bracknell? Requires a 15% swing. Widely expected to change hands. LABOUR GAIN

13. Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven (Labour) – Chris Ward replacing Labour’s Lloyd Russell-Moyle, who has had to stand down. LABOUR HOLD

14. Brighton Pavilion (Green) – Sian Berry standing for the Greens due to the retirement of Caroline Lucas. I had assumed this would collapse without Lucas but apparently locally its expected to be GREEN HOLD

15. Mid Buckinghamshire (Tory) – Greg Smith. TORY HOLD

16. Canterbury (Labour) – Rosie Duffield. Alas, LABOUR HOLD

17. Chatham and Aylesford (Tory) – Tracey Crouch. Requires a 20.7% swing. TORY HOLD

18. Chesham and Amersham (Tory last election). Currently held by Lib Dem Sarah Green. LIB DEM HOLD

19. Chichester (Tory) – Gillian Keegan. LIB DEM GAIN

20. Crawley (Tory) – Zack Ali standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Henry Smith. Requires an 8.3% swing, and is widely expected to get that, given the lack of incumbent.

21. Dartford (Tory) – Gareth Johnson. Requires a 15.8% swing. Meant to be close. TORY HOLD

22. Didcot and Wantage (Tory0 – David Johnston. Requires a 9.2% swing. LIB DEM GAIN

23. Dover and Deal (Tory) – Stephen James standing for the Tories due to the defection and retirement of Natalie Elphicke. Requires a 12.1% swing. Was already looking likely before the Tory MP defected and has been telling her former voters they were wrong about the Tories. LABOUR GAIN

24. East Hampshire (Tory) – Damian Hinds. Requires an 18.4% swing. TORY HOLD

25. East Surrey (Tory) Claire Coutinho. Requires a 19.9% swing. TORY HOLD

26. East Worthing and Shoreham (Tory) – Leila Williams standing due to the retirement of Tim Loughton. This 7% swing seat is widely expected to go LABOUR GAIN.

27. Eastbourne (Tory) ) Caroline Ansell. Another super marginal (2.1%) in the south against the Lib Dems, in a seat where the Liberal support held up better over the past decade. LIB DEM GAIN

28. Epsom and Ewell (Tory)- Mhairi Fraser standing due to the retirement of Chris Grayling. TORY HOLD

29. Esther and Walton (Tory) – John Cope standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Dominic Raab. LIB DEM GAIN

30. Eastleigh (Tory) – Samuel Joynson standing in this redistributed seat. A former Lib Dem heartland expected to return speedily (maybe not the best phrase given ex MP Chris Huhne) to the old fold. LIB DEM GAIN.

31. Hamble Valley (Tory) – Paul Holmes. Requires a 20.6% swing. Hamble Valley sounds like a place in Trumpton. The MP Holmes jumped from Eastleigh to this safer seat. TORY HOLD

32. Fareham and Waterlooville (Tory) – Suella Braverman. Requires a 21.1% swing. TORY HOLD

33. Faversham and Mid Kent (Tory) – Helen Whateley. Requires a 21.3% swing. TORY HOLD

34. Folkestone and Hythe (Tory) – Damian Collins. Requires a 14% swing. Apparently a LABOUR GAIN

35. Gillingham and Rainham (Tory) – Rehman Chishti. Local polling, MRPs and campaigns all agree this one is gone. LABOUR GAIN

36. Gosport (Tory) 0 Caroline Dinenage. Requires a 24% swing. TORY HOLD

37. Gravesham (Tory) – Adam Holloway. Requires a 16.3% swing.TORY HOLD

38. Guildford (Tory) – Angela Richardson. Requires a 2.9% swing. LIB DEM GAIN

39. Hastings and Rye (Tory) – Sally Ann Hart. Requires a 3.36% swing. LABOUR GAIN

40. Havant (Tory) – Alan Mak. Requires a 23.7% swing. Allegedly Reform campaigning heavily. TORY HOLD, or Return of the Mak.

41. Henley and Thame (Tory) – Caroline Newton standing for the Tories due to the retirement of John Howell. Sunak was heavily campaigning here, as the notional majority under the new boundaries is only an 11% swing. The sort of seat that felt like it would be Tory forever and a day. LIB DEM GAIN

42. Horsham (Tory) – Jeremy Quin. Requires a 15.5% swing. TORY HOLD

43. Hove and Portslade (Labour) – Peter Kyle. LABOUR HOLD

44. Isle of Wight East (Tory) – Joe Robertson is standing for the Tories in this new seat. Requires a 16.6% swing. TORY HOLD expected.

45. Isle of Wight West (Tory) – Bob Seely. Requires a 15.2% swing. Picking a popular local candidate might be the extra boost Labour need here. LABOUR GAIN

46. Lewes (Tory) – Maria Caulfield. Requires a 3.7% swing and is widely expected to return to the Liberals. LIB DEM GAIN

47. Maidenhead (Tory) – Former Twickenham MP (2015-17) Tania Mathias is standing for the Tories here due to the retirement of former Prime Minister Theresa May. Requires a 16.7% swing. TORY HOLD

48. Maidstone and Malling (Tory) – Helen Grant. 19.8% swing. TORY HOLD

49. Mid Sussex (Tory) – Kristy Adams standing for the Tories in this redistributed seat. Requires a 12% swing, and YouGov think the Lib Dems will win this, which is frankly insane. TORY HOLD

50. East Grinstead and Uckfield (Tory) – Mims Davies. Requires a 17.7% swing.TORY HOLD

51. Milton Keynes North (Tory) – Ben Everett. Requires a 6.3% swing. LABOUR GAIN

52. Milton Keynes Central (Tory) – Johnny Luk standing for the Tories in this new seat. LABOUR GAIN

53. Buckingham and Bletchley (Tory) – Iain Stewart. Requires a 12.6% swing. LABOUR GAIN

54. Dorking and Horley (Tory) – Marisa Heath standing fort he Tories due to the retirement of Paul Beresford. Requires a 9.4% swing. Widely expect to be a LIB DEM GAIN

55. New Forest East (Tory) – Julian Lewis. TORY HOLD

56. New Forest West (Tory) – Desmond Swayne. TORY HOLD

57. Newbury (Tory) – Laura Farris. Requires an 11% swing and is widely expected to be a LIB DEM GAIN

58. North East Hampshire (Tory) Ranil Jayawardena.Requires a 19.8% swing. TORY HOLD

59. Herne Bay and Sandwich (Tory) – Roger Gale. Requires a 19.9% swing. TORY HOLD

60. North West Hampshire (Tory) – Kit Malthouse. Requires a 20.08% swing. TORY HOLD

61. Oxford East (Labour) – Anneliese Dodds. LABOUR HOLD

62. Oxford West and Abingdon (Lib Dem) – Layla Moran. LIB DEM HOLD

63. Portsmouth North (Tory) – Penny Mourdant. Requires a 17.2% swing. Mourdant often cited as next possible Tory leader. Most of the campaigning here seems to be from the Tories, with split opposition. TORY HOLD

64. Portsmouth South (Labour) ) Stephen Morgan. LABOUR HOLD

65. Reading Central (Labour – Matt Rodda. LABOUR HOLD

66. Reading West and Mid Berkshire (Tory) – Ross Mackinnon standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Alok Sharma. Boundary changes make this more solidly Tory. TORY HOLD

67. Reigate (Tory) – Rebecca Paul standing due to the retirement of Crispin Blunt. Requires a 17.7% swing. Expected to be closer than expected. TORY HOLD

68. Rochester and Strood (Tory) 0 Kelly Tolhurst – Requires a 14.8% swing. Apparently likely. Due to Reform/Tory split. LABOUR GAIN

69. Romsey and Southampton North (Tory) Caroline Nokes. Requires a 14.6% swing. Ed Davey had been here but locally expected to be a TORY HOLD.

70. Runnymede and Weybridge (Tory) – Ben Spencer. Requires a 15.1% swing. LIB DEM GAIN

71. Sevenoaks (Tory) – Laura Trott. The Lib Dems have campaigned heavily here, which is slightly ambitious. Requires a 21.1% swing. TORY HOLD

72. Sittingbourne and Sheppey (Tory) – Aisha Cuthbert standing due to the retirement of Gordon Henderson. Requires a 22.8% swing.TORY HOLD

73. Slough (Labour) – Tan Dhesi. LABOUR HOLD

74. East Thanet (Tory) – Helen Harrison standing for the Tories due to the health related retirement of Craig Mackinlay. Requires a 7.9% swing, and is expected to do so.

75. Farnham and Bordon (Tory) – Gregory Stafford standing in this new seat. Requires a 13.2% swing. Meant to be tight between the Tories and Lib Dems. TORY HOLD

76. Godalming and Ash (Tory) – Jeremy Hunt. Requires a 9% swing. Everyone involved, from the Labour campaign to Jeremy Hunt himself, expect a LIB DEM GAIN

77. Southampton Itchen (Tory) – Sidney Yankson standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Royston Smith. Requires a 4.7% swing. A Brexiteer who supported European cooperation, a bike shop owner who preferred cars, a quiet and shy MP who once foiled a terror attack, Royston Smith’s charmed life followed in his elections as he held on thrice in a usually Labour friendly seat against the odds. Without him, this is likely to revert to type. LABOUR GAIN

78. Southampton Test (Labour) – Satvir Kaur standing for the Labour due to the retirement of Alan Whitehead. Last time a long time MP retired in Southampton Labour lost the seat! However, this election looks friendlier than 2015. LABOUR HOLD

79. Spelthorne (Tory) – Lincoln Jopp standing due to the retirement of Kwasi Kwarteng. Requires an 18.5% swing. TORY HOLD

80. Surrey Heath (Tory) – Ed McGuinness standing due to the retirement of Michael Gove. Requires a 14.7% swing. I can’t believe Michael Gove, who has always wanted to be Tory leader, would give up this seat unless they were sure it was doomed. LIB DEM GAIN

81. Sussex Weald (Tory- Nus Ghani. Requires a 23.4% swing. TORY HOLD

82. Tonbridge (Tory) – Tom Tugendhat. Requires a 24.8% swing. Sunak was campaigning here which was odd. TORY HOLD

83. Tunbridge Wells (Tory) – Neil Mahapatra standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Greg Clark. Requires a 13.4% swing. Iain Dale was going to stand here until he called the place miserable on the radio. The local Tory candidate has disowned his own party. LIB DEM GAIN

84. Winchester (Tory) -Flick Drummond. Requires a 7% swing to go Lib Dem. Flick Drummond is used to losing elections though. LIB DEM GAIN

85. Windsor (Tory) – Jack Rankin standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Adam Afriyie. Requires 18% swing, and widely expected to stay Tory. TORY HOLD

86. Witney (Tory) – Robert Courts. 16% swing required and not expected. TORY HOLD

87. Woking (Tory) – Jonathan Lord.Requires an 8.5% swing and is widely expected to be a LIB DEM GAIN

88. Wokingham (Tory) – Lucy Demery standing for the Tories due to the retirement of John Redwood. Redwood saw the future and left before it could happen. LIB DEM GAIN

89. Earley and Woodley (Tory) – Pauline Jorgensen standing in this new seat. Requires an 11.3% swing but has split opposition and is expected locally to be a shock TORY HOLD

90. Worthing West (Tory) – Peter Bottomley. I’m not usually a fan of Peter Bottomley, MP since 1975, but his stance here that the electorate kept him in for 50 years and so deserve to have the final say holds up well next to many who ran away as soon as they saw the polls. The Father of the House, he’s been in the Commons for as long as Dennis Skinner was in 2019. Requires a 13.2% swing. LABOUR GAIN

91. Wycombe (Tory) – Steve Baker. Requires a 1.5% swing and the MP went on holiday rather than campaign. LABOUR GAIN



Tory 41 (-33)

Labour 29 (+21)

Lib Dem 20 (+19)

Greens 1 (nc)

Wales (32)

1. Aberafan Maestag (Labour) – Stephen Kinnock LABOUR HOLD

2. Bangor Aberconwy (Tory) – Robin Millar. One of the most marginal seats in the UK. LABOUR GAIN

3. Alyn and Deeside (Labour) – Mark Tami LABOUR HOLD

4. Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (Labour – Nick Smith LABOUR HOLD

5. Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe (Tory) – Fay Jones. With boundary changes, requires an 8% swing. LIB DEM GAIN

6. Bridgend (Tory) – Ogmore Labour MP Chris Ellmore is standing here. Only requires a 2.7% swing. LABOUR GAIN

7. Caerfyrddin (Plaid) – Ann Davies standing for Plaid here. Simon Hart, the former Welsh Secretary and Tory Carmarthen MP, is standing here. Another close Labour v Plaid marginal.Plaid are strong in the area though. PLAID HOLD

8. Caerphilly (Labour) – Chris Evans is standing for the Labour party here. LABOUR HOLD

9. Cardiff East (Labour) – Jo Stevens LABOUR HOLD

10. Cardiff North (Labour) – Anna McMorrin LABOUR HOLD

11. Cardiff South and Penarth (Labour) – Stephen Doughty LABOUR HOLD

12. Cardiff West (Labour) – Kevin Brennan LABOUR HOLD

13. Ceredigion Preseli (Plaid) – Ben Lake PLAID HOLD

14. Clwyd East (Tory) – James Davies standing for the Tories, former Tory MP Rob Roberts standing as an independent. Requires a 5% swing. LABOUR GAIN

15. Clwyd North (Tory) – Darren Millar . Requires a 2.7 swing. LABOUR GAIN

16. Dwyford Meirionnydd (Plaid) – Liz Savile Roberts PLAID HOLD

17. Gower (Labour) – Tonia Antoniazzi LABOUR HOLD

18. Llanelli (Labour) – Nia Griffith LABOUR HOLD

19. Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare (Labour) – Gerald Jones LABOUR HOLD

20. Mid and South Pembrokeshire (Tory) – Stephen Crabb. Requires a 7% swing. LABOUR GAIN

21. Monmouthshire (Tory) – David TC Davies. Requires a 10.2% swing. Davies looked miserable when the election was declared, and locally he’s said to be doomed. LABOUR GAIN

22. Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (Tory) – Craig Williams. This was going to be the last Tory seat standing in Wales, until today when the Tories disowned their own candidate over the betting scandal. Now, with the Lib Dems too far behind in what used to be their own fiefdom, its LABOUR GAIN. Somehow. Insanely.

23. Neath and Swansea East (Labour) – Carolyn Harris standing for the Labour party due to retirement of Christina Rees. LABOUR HOLD

24. Newport East (Labour) – Jessica Mordern LABOUR HOLD

25. Newport West and Islwyn (Labour) – Ruth Jones LABOUR HOLD

26. Pontypridd (Labour) – Alex Davies-Jones LABOUR HOLD

27. Rhondda and Ogmore (labour) – Chris Bryant LABOUR HOLD

28. Swansea West (Labour) – Torsten Bell LABOUR HOLD

29. Torfaen (Labour) – Nick Thomas-Symonds. LABOUR HOLD.

30. Vale of Glamorgan (Tory) – Alun Cairns. Requires a 2.5% swing. LABOUR GAIN

31. Wrexham (Tory) – Sarah Atherton. Requires a 4.1% swing. LABOUR GAIN

32. Ynys Mon (Tory) – Virginia Crosbie. Is now a hard to call Plaid v Labour marginal. PLAID GAIN



Labour 27 (+6)

Tory 0 (-13)

Lib 1 (+1)

Plaid 4 (+1)

 

London (75)

 

1. Barking (Labour) – Nesil Caliskan standing for Labour due to retirement of Margaret Hodge. LABOUR HOLD

2. Battersea (Labour) – Marsha de Cordova. LABOUR HOLD.

3. Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Labour) – Neil Coyle. LABOUR HOLD

4. Bethnal Green and Stepney (Labour) – Rushanara Ali. LABOUR HOLD

5. Bexleyheath and Crayford (Tory) – Mark Brooks standing for the Tories due to the retirement of David Evenett. Requires a 15.9% swing. TORY HOLD

6. Brent East (Labour) – Dawn Butler. LABOUR HOLD

7. Brent West (Labour) – Barry Gardiner. LABOUR HOLD

8. Brentford and Isleworth (Labour) – Ruth Cadbury. LABOUR HOLD

9. Bromley and Biggin Hill (Tory) – Peter Fortune standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Bob Neill. Requires a 14.6% swing. TORY HOLD

10. Peckham (Labour) – Miatta Fahnbulleh standing for Labour due to the retirement of Harriet Harman. LABOUR HOLD

11. Carshalton and Wallington (Tory) – Elliot Colburn. Requires an 0.64% swing or 629 votes. Expected to shift back to the Lib Dems. LIB DEM GAIN

12. Chelsea and Fulham (Tory) – Greg Hands. Requires an 8.2% swing. A hard fought campaign here, going to be tight apparently. TORY HOLD

13. Chingford and Woodford Green (Tory) – Iain Duncan Smith. Requires a 1.4% swing or 1604 votes. The appearance of independent Faiza Shaheen complicates matters. TORY HOLD

14. Chipping Barnet (Tory) – Theresa Villiers. Requires a 3.6% swing. Should go LABOUR GAIN

15. Cities of London and Westminster (Tory) – Tim Barnes standing for the Tories due to Nickie Aiken retirement. Requires a 5.7% swing. Seen as a likely LABOUR GAIN

16. Vauxhall and Camberwell Green – (Labour) – Florence Eshalomi. LABOUR HOLD

17. Clapham and Brixton Hil (Labour) – Bell Ribiero-Addy. LABOUR HOLD

18. Streatham and Croydon North (Labour) – Steve Reed. LABOUR HOLD

19. Croydon West (Labour) – Sarah Jones. LABOUR HOLD

20. Croydon East (Labour). Natasha Irons standing fo Labour. LABOUR HOLD

21. Croydon South (Tory) – Chris Philp. Requires 13% swing but apparently that’s not a realistic target. TORY HOLD

22. Dagenham and Rainham (Labour) – Margaret Mullane standing for Labour due to the retirement of Jon Cruddas. Is demographically shifting towards the Tories. LABOUR HOLD, unconvincingly.

23. Dulwich and West Norwood (Labour) Helen Hayes. LABOUR HOLD

24. Ealing Central and Acton (Labour) – Rupa Huq. LABOUR HOLD

25. Ealing North (Labour) – James Murray. LABOUR HOLD

26. Ealing Southall (Labour) – Deirdre Costigan standing for Labour due to retirement of Virendra Sharma. LABOUR HOLD.

27. East Ham (Labour) – Stephen Timms LABOUR HOLD

28. Edmonton and Winchmore Hill (Labour) – Kate Osamor. LABOUR HOLD

29. Eltham and Chislehurst (Labour) – Clive Efford. LABOUR HOLD.

30. Enfield North (Labour) – Feryal Clark LABOUR HOLD

31. Southgate and Wood Green (Labour) – Bambos Charalambous. LABOUR HOLD

32. Erith and Thamesmead (Labour) – Abena Oppong-Asare. LABOUR HOLD

33. Feltham and Heston (Labour) Seema Malhotra. LABOUR HOLD

34. Finchley and Golders Green (Tory) – Alex Deane standing for the Tories due to the retirement of Mike Freer. Requires a 5.9% swing. LABOUR GAIN

35. Greenwich and Woolwich (Labour) – Matthew Pennycock. LABOUR HOLD

36. Hackney North and Stoke Newington (Labour) – Diane Abbott LABOUR HOLD

37. Hackney South and Shoreditch (Labour) – Meg Hillier. LABOUR HOLD

38. Hammersmith and Chiswick (Labour) Andy Slaughter. LABOUR HOLD

39. Hampstead and Highgate (Labour) – Tulip Siddiq. LABOUR HOLD

40. Harrow East (Tory) – Bob Blackman. Requires an 8.5% swing. Locally said to be too close to call. TORY HOLD

41. Harrow West (Labour) – Gareth Thomas. LABOUR HOLD

42. Hayes and Harlington (Labour) – John McDonnell. LABOUR HOLD

43. Hendon (Tory) – Ameet Jogia standing for the Tories due to Matthew Offord’s retirement. Requires a 4% swing. Expected to be a LABOUR GAIN

44. Holborn and St Pancras (Labour) – Keir Starmer. LABOUR HOLD.

45. Hornchurch and Upminster (Tory) – Julia Lopez . Requires a 21.2% swing. TORY HOLD

46. Hornsey and Friern Barnet (Labour) Catherine West. LABOUR HOLD.

47. Ilford North (Labour) – Wes Streeting lABOUR HOLD

48. Ilford South (Labour) – Jas Athwal standing due to deselection of Sam Tarry. LABOUR HOLD

49. Islington North (Labour) – Praful Nargund standing for Labour due to the explusion of Jeremy Corbyn, who is running as an independent. Is going to be a tight battle between Labour and Corbyn, where Corbyn is expected to hold on. INDEPENDENT GAIN

50. Islington South and Finsbury (Labour) – Emily Thornberry. LABOUR HOLD

51. Kensington and Bayswater (Tory) – Felicity Buchan. Under boundary changes, this is notionally Labour. Former Labour MP Emma Dent Coad is standing as an anti-Labour candidate. LABOUR GAIN

52. Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem) – Ed Davey. LIB DEM HOLD

53. Lewisham East (Labour) Janet Daby. LABOUR HOLD

54. Lewisham North (Labour) – Vicky Foxcroft LABOUR HOLD

55. Lewisham West and East Dulwich (Labour) – Ellie Reeves LABOUR HOLD

56. Beckenham and Penge (Tory) – Hannah Gray standing for the Tories due to Bob Stewart’s retirement. Boundary changes suggest LABOUR GAIN.

57. Leyton and Wanstead (Labour) – Liam Conlon standing for the Labour due to John Cryer’s retirement.. LABOUR HOLD

58. Mitcham and Morden (Labour) – Siobhan McDonagh LABOUR HOLD

59. Old Bexley and Sidcup (Tory) – Louie French. Requires a 20% swing. TORY HOLD

60. Orpington (Tory) – Gareth Bacon. Requires a 21.7% swing. TORY HOLD

61. Poplar and Limehouse (Labour) – Apsana Begum. LABOUR HOLD

62. Putney (Labour) – Fleur Anderson. LABOUR HOLD

63. Richmond Park (Lib Dem) Sarah Olney. LIB DEM HOLD

64. Romford (Tory) – Andrew Rosindell. Widely expect to remain TORY HOLD

65. Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner (Tory) – David Simmonds. Requires a 15.1% swing. Expected to remain TORY HOLD

66. Sutton and Cheam (Tory) – Tom Drummond standing for the Tories due to retirement of Paul Scully. Requires an 8.2% swing. LIB DEM GAIN

67. Tooting (Labour) – Rosena Allin-Khan. LABOUR HOLD

68. Tottenham (Labour) – David Lammy LABOUR HOLD

69. Twickenham (Lib Dem) Munira Wilson. LIB DEM HOLD

70. Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Tory) – Steve Tuckwell. The Tories held on when Boris Johnson resigned due to the ULEZ debate. Without it this is likely to go LABOUR GAIN

71. Walthamstow (Labour) – Stella Creasy. LABOUR HOLD

72. West Ham and Beckton (Labour) – James Assar standing for Labour in this new seat. LABOUR HOLD

73. Stratford and Bow (Labour) – Uma Kumaran standing for Labour due to retirement of Lyn Brown. LABOUR HOLD

74. Queens Park and Maida Vale (Labour) – Georgia Gould standing for Labour due to retirement of Karen Buck. LABOUR HOLD

75. Wimbledon (Tory) – Danielle Dunfield-Prayero standing for the Tories due to Stephen Hammond’s retirement. Requires an 0.7% swing or 839 votes. Likely LIB DEM GAIN



Tory 11 -10

Labour 57 +8

Lib Dems 6 +3

Independent 1 +1

Overall Results

Tory 177 (-184) 

Labour 363 (+161) 

Lib Dems 57 (+46)

 SNP 24 (-24) 

Plaid 4 (+1) 

Reforms 2 (+2) 

Greens 2 (+1)

 Independents 2 (+2)

 N Ireland 18 

Speaker 1

The Caveat Zone

1. While over 100 of the Tory holds projected above are in margin of error territory, so are around 50 of the proposed Labour gains. So we shouldn't ignore the possibility of a hung parliament, though as a firm believer in The Pendulum Theory of Politics, I think a wipe out is likelier than hung parliament. But every vote still counts.

2. Polling suggests at least half of those 100 seats would be at risk under UNS. My rule was simple. If the majority is over 20k, and there's no word from the seat, then don't assume on the basis of a few MRPs. Better to be cautious than outlandish, I say.

3. I am aware that the Lib Dems have lost an incumbent defending their seat at every election since 1955. Jamie Stone is the only one I can see in real danger, but its something to keep in mind.

4. The SNP I've also been relatively kind to, by taking the word that their vote is holding up better in the North, and that they will hold up better in SNP v Tory seats. If I am wrong about this, they will wind up with less than ten seats in Scotland.

5. In 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 predictions, I have underestimated the number of seats the party in first place have won. Only fair to bring this up.

What does this tell us? That the route of travel is pretty much in line with the polling, and I've mostly gone for a 15% swing in line with national polling averages. However, if you take John Curtice's point that in 1 in 6 seats, the Tories don't have 20%+ to drop, then 177 MPs could easily be a "snap your arm off" fever dream. 

And if someone who is natural cautious thinks they're losing over half of their seats, then the Tory party are in trouble.