World Cup 2026 Power Rankings

 World Cup 2026 power rankings

Instead of a group stage preview, here is a power ranking as they seem in vogue. My attempt to rank the 48 teams at the World Cup based on likelihood to win the Cup. Or do well. Or even advance in some cases. I like lists. Some teams suffer from being in bad groups, some teams suffer from being bad teams. I tried to be fair to everyone, and look forward to being proved utterly wrong within a fortnight! Onwards!

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48 Qatar

They won the Asia Cup in 2019, yet were shit at the 2022 World Cup. They won the Asian Cup in 2023 also (mostly thanks to the bigger nations killing each other), and I think they are still shit. Compare it to Greece, who won the Euros in 2004, but if they had got to the 2006 World Cup, would have probably added as much as they eventually did to the 2010 version. In the last year, they have lost to Lebanon, lost to Tunisia 3-0, lost to Palestine, lost to Zimbabwe at home, been crushed by Russia, and they had to have the qualifying rules changed to help them just cross the qualification line by the skin of their teeth. They’re also in a very easy group. They rely heavily on Almoez Ali and Akram Afif.  They did beat Mexico in the group stages of the 2023 Gold Cup and then…. lost 4-0 to Panama. The only reason this side isn’t no hopers is the comfortable nature of their group and even then, I think their existence is the reason its comfortable for the rest.

47 New Zealand

Haiti just crushed New Zealand 4-0. Hey, New Zealand beat Chile 4-1, did you hear? Yes, this tells me that Chile are godawful. In the lead up to the 2010 World Cup appearance, New Zealand had battling defeats against Mexico and beat Serbia. Now they are getting gubbed by Haiti, Finland, Australia. It doesn’t bode well.  Nor does the fact they rely on a 34 year old Chris Wood for their goals. Their midfield options come from the likes of St Etienne (not bad), Motherwell (hmm) and Peterborough United (no comment). They had the easiest qualifying route, they have the easiest group but.. I still think this is a bridge too far for this generation of New Zealand footballers. 

46 Curacao

Dick Advocaat took this rag tag bunch to the World Cup. Then his daughter became gravely ill, so he retired. Then she got better (hooray) so he’s back for his last big jig in football. I got to see Curacao in great detail last week. They are spirited but not very good. They’ve been gubbed by Scotland, Australia and China in recent weeks, and all of those should ring alarm bells. At Hampden they were down to ten men after a stupid tackle in a friendly! They also huffed and puffed and got in your face before tiring. I don’t see them doing much against Germany, Ecuador or Cote D’Ivoire, but they might get a goal or two, and win some friends for their craziness. And to be fair, just by being here, they are already winners. Tahith Chong, who scored against Scotland, had a lot of positive energy. And in the early going of all three matches, they chase every ball and chance so if they got an early goal, it could be fun. But yeah, grouped and fondly remembered seems their most likely path. 

(Also, Curacao smashed Haiti, and Scotland smashed Curacao is the sort of logic I’d be using for Group C if I wasn’t a Scot!)

45 Haiti

It’s nice to see these minnows back at the World Cup, a view point I might change in a hurry next weekend. They beat New Zealand and drew Iceland recently, results that drew the blood from my face! They are in a very tough group however, and even if they do beat Scotland, its hard to see a side on the level of Curacao getting anything from Morocco or Brazil. Now watch Frantzdy Pierrot get a hattrick against the Scots. By qualifying the Haiti for this first World Cup in 52 years, and doing it ahead of Costa Rica and Honduras, manager Sebastian Migne has already vastly overachieved. 

44 Jordan

Jordan have already done incredibly well to get to their first ever World Cup. As a team they aim to score goals and last November managed to drag Tunisia to a 5 goal thriller. Which they lost. They scored two against Morocco, and lost. They scored against the Swiss, and lost. They scored twice against Costa Rica, and drew. You can see the problem here. Their give it a go philosophy is admirable, and they can get goals, but their defence is non existent. And they are about to play 3 teams far better than their usual bedfellows. 0 points seems likely for Jordan, but I fear for three thumpings where other more dull sides go out with 1 draw and a -2 goal difference, we all know someone will. But Jordan are on a generational high, having reached the Asian Cup final in 2023. On the pitch, the goal threats come from Olwan (not at 100%), and Rennes’s Al-Taamari. Likely to be fun, unlikely to be involved in any 0-0 draws. You fear for them against Austria and Argentina.

43 Ghana

Remember how great and fun that 2006-14 Ghana team was? Yes, this is not it. Carlos Queiroz manages them, so you know what to expect. He replaced Otto Addo in April after a bad run of form, including a thumping by Austria, and drawing Chad. Their best player, Mohammed Kudus, is injured and not at the World Cup. Most of their success in recent years ran through him. Without him they look toothless. Without Kudus they need to rely on Antoine Semenyo and Thomas Partey (still here), while aging Jordan Ayew and “never lived up to expectations” Inaki Williams have to score goals. Their AFCON qualifying was a comedy of errors. They failed to win a single match in six against Niger, Sudan and Angola, those titans of world football. They lost at home to Niger, currently ranked 114th in the world. They did qualify for 2023 AFCON at least, and got grouped by the Cape Verde Islands and Mozambique. Their world cup status was under threat for a while due to a loss to Comoros. Never mind threatening England or Croatia, and Ghana have often raised their game for one off matches against big opponents so its not impossible they can get a draw somewhere, I struggle to see this motley crew beating Panama. 

42 Saudi Arabia

They are an old, goal scarce side who have lost to Ecuador, Serbia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria and Australia in the last year, and failed to beat Trinidad and Tobago, and Iraq. Their most impressive win was admittedly over the Cote D’Ivoire, but even so, they crawled to the World Cup via a narrow win over Indonesia and a draw against Iraq. Because they could beat the Cape Verde Islands, they might get to the knockout stage, but they, overall, are a deeply mediocre side who will lose easily to the first decent side they face. Incidentally, they are facing Spain and Uruguay, and the third in this group are likely to face one of France, Belgium, Norway or England in the first KO round. 

41 Scotland

My lads are back, for the first time since 1998! And we have Brazil, just like 1998. And Morocco, just like 1998! And Haiti. CONCACAF minnows are never worrisome: just ask Scotland 1990! In 1998, Scotland got 0 points from Brazil and Morocco. Our team rely on our strong midfield – McTominay and McGinn on their day are a match for anyone, Gannon-Doak is a formidable ball carrier, and while Billy Gilmour misses out (poor sod), youngsters Findlay Curtis and Tyler Fletcher looked good in friendlies, admittedly against Curacao. And surely the Scottish semi-reserves beating a Haiti level side handily is a good sign? Up front we have Lyndon bloody Dykes again, and George Hirst (impersonating a footballer for Ipswich Town) but this season and recent games suggest Lawrence Shankland's poacher instincts can translate to the Scotland team, and lord knows we need it. We made goals look very difficult to achieve at the last two Euros, and have a sieve like defence, bad options in a tough group. Brazil and Morocco could be get messy for us, which means a KO spot seems deeply unlikely, even if we do beat Haiti. And its Scotland, so that KO spot is practically mission impossible. 

40 Cape Verde Islands

Plucky underdogs who qualified for their first ever World Cup by beating Cameroon and hipster faves Angola. Their manager Bubista also took them to the quarterfinals of the AFCON in 2023, this is a very solid team. They’ve beaten Serbia (who are the most charitable side in this review and they’re not even at the World Cup) 3-0 last week, which was sandwiched by wins over Finland and Bermuda, so their confidence should be sky high. They also drew Egypt and Iran (but lost on penalties to both, so they shouldn’t play for penalties in the World Cup semifinal, is my helpful advice), held Georgia to a score draw, and beat Cameroon. They aim to score goals, they don’t care what the reputation of their opponents are, they are highly likeable. I think they’ve got an outside chance of advancing here. The problem is their opening opponents, Spain. Spain have a habit of being flat track bullies against lowly sides, and a thumping from the Spanish might be a confidence smasher. My advice would be to disregard the Spain game, and enjoy it for what it is. 4 points from Uruguay and Saudi Arabia is perfectly possible. Hey, its fun to dream, I’m Scottish, sometimes I think we can get out of a group stage!

39 Tunisia

Tough opposition, Sabri Lamouchi has axed nearly half the AFCON side, and 1/3rd of his side are youngsters. They were dour, defensive and rarely scored in qualifying, then they got 7 goals in 4 games at the AFCON, so have reverted to 1 goal in their last 3 friendlies. Exciting. They seem most likely to get a draw or two and slit the wrists of one of their opponents in doing so. And they just lost a friendly 5-0 to Belgium, which doesn’t bode well for taking on three better sides. Yes, I said it. 

38 Panama

I’ve heard a lot of praise coming Panama’s way for their qualification, and their current style of play, and how Thomas Christiansen (former Leeds manager) might be the best manager in CONCACAF, so to all that I say: they’ve got a weak African side and an old well past its prime Croatia. This is put up or shut up time for Panama. With dogged wins over South Africa and draws against Bosnia and Bolivia, they can be tricky, but they also just lost 6-2 to Brazil, and lost to Mexico, which suggests to me that England and Croatia ought to be out of reach. And also, keep in mind, a single point for Panama will exceed their greatest World Cup record. They don’t really have players to watch out for as obvious goal threats (Tomas Rodriguez, maybe) but they can get goals from all over the place. In recent good goal scoring form is Jiovany Ramos, who is a centre back. By which I mean he got a goal recently. I'm an expert on all things Panamanian football, clearly...

37 Iraq

Iraq’s 21 game world cup qualifying marathon underwent highs and lows, from having their spot as host of the playoffs removed (for dubious reasons), to wining three playoffs after that, and getting to their first World Cup in 40 years. Those scenes of parties and jubilation on streets we all know, for war and misery this century, would bring a tear to a glass eye. Iraq actually started WCQ with 3 teams hipsters expected to do better: Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, and beat them all. Then they finished 3rd behind South Korea (despite giving them a game) and Jordan, then got robbed by the Saudis, then beat UAE and Bolivia. If at first you don’t succeed. And their reward is the group of certain death! But if their long road to the World Cup, and their draw against Spain showed anything, its that Iraq will never give up, and are more than capable of being tricky opposition. I don’t expect them to qualify from a group with Norway, France and Senegal, but I can see them having a major say in who advances, or who doesn’t advance. They’ve got some decent young midfielder, Zidane Iqbal and Ali Jasim of note.

36 South Korea

South Korea’s pre-Cup warm up games include wins over El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago, those mighty world champions. Their last Asia Cup saw them losing in the Semifinal to Jordan and failing to beat Malaysia. Their World Cup qualifying saw them struggling to beat Iraq and drawing Palestine and Oman. In a direct friendly in March, they were gubbed 4-0 by Cote D’Ivoire. They are in a group with the hosts, a tough European side, and an African side – South Korea have lost to Ghana and Algeria in recent World Cups and drew a lousy Nigeria in 2010. 19 of their squad are 25 or older, and the likes of Son Heung-min are past their prime. Basically, I am very worried about the South Koreans here. They have the likes of PSG’s Lee Kang-in, but it’s a squad in which the goals are heavily reliant on Son, Hwang hee-chan (2 league goals all season for Wolves),  and the aforementioned Kang-in to produce goals.  Hwang In-Beom (Feyenoord) has never lived up to the potential he showed a decade ago, and he’s had a lot of chances to show it. I have the South Koreans this low because I think they’re going to get grouped. 

35 Australia

I always vastly underrate Australia. In terms of entertainment, they’ve been in more memorable matches at the World Cup than I remember (Croatia 2006, Ghana 2010, Argentina 2022 to name three), and barring 1 or 2 thumpings, they always give it a good showing. In 2006 they KO’d Croatia and gave Italy and Brazil huge scares. In 2010, they recovered from a German thumping to eliminate Serbia. In 2014, they were expected to be Zaire levels, but gave Chile and the Dutch really good games. In 2018, they were equal to Denmark and France for two games before tiring. In 2022, they eliminated hipster favourites Denmark! Basically its time for losers like me to give the Australians some respect. 

So naturally I have them fourth in their group. 

Yet, if any team could overthrow that, its probably them. I remember Tony Popovic’s own goal v Portsmouth, now you tell me that was 22 years ago and he’s manager of his national team! Tempus fugit! Popovic took over in 2024 after Australia lost in the Asia Cup quarterfinals, and had taken 1 point from 2 World Cup qualifying matches against Bahrain and Indonesia! He turned them around with 4 wins in their last 4, when Australia’s qualification had seemed dodgy before. In recent months, they’ve beaten Canada and Curacao, but lost to the Americans, Colombia and Venezuela. Do they have the players to threaten others in Group D? Well, with Jackson Irvine there they have the tackling! Their frontline is mostly new, I don’t know Velupillay of Melbourne Victory or Volpato of Sassulo, or even, tbh, Nestory Irankunda, though I know enough that the 20 year old from Watford is considered a player to watch here.  A third of this team is 22 or younger. But while they are spirited, I think they are limited. 

There, I have underrated Australia yet again. Will I ever learn?

34 Uzbekistan

Lost in playoffs, finished a point off, lost the key final game: after 20 years of repeat WCQ heartbreak, Uzbekistan have finally crossed the Rubicon and are here. Good things come to those who wait. Their WCQ was steady, despite their manager Srecko Katanec having to retire due to cancer, and then his replacement wishing to go to club management. Now Fabio Cannavaro is in charge, and has already dumped one of their most highly touted midfielders! Under him, Uzbekistan have drawn Venezuela and lost to Canada. Not amazing.  Yet, famous last words, I think they have the midfield and desire to catch one of their opponents cold. Khamdamov, Urunov, Shukurov, they have players who can pounce on mistakes, and nabbing the win here or there isn’t beyond them.

33 Bosnia

This is a strange combination of the old guard who huffed and puffed through the qualifying, and a bunch of young players I know little about. They’re on the cusp here of a predicted KO round appearance, and to be honest, of all the teams, this one could go 3-0-0 in the groups or 0-0-3 easily enough. Dzeko and Kolasinac, the wrong side of 30, are still here and crucial, and way back down the list, Bajraktarevic and Alajbegovic are younger than Dzeko combined, yet have 24 caps between them already. They are the reason that Romania, Italy and Wales aren’t at this Cup so ignore them at your peril. 

32 DR Congo

One benefit the DRC have from WCQ is that they have proved they can cope with things going wrong. Case in point, their qualifier against Senegal in which they went 2-0 up within 33 minutes (playing some excellent football) only to lose 3-2. Most teams would have fallen apart from that heartbreak. DR Congo instead won the crucial next 2 games to qualify for the playoffs, then beat Cameroon and Nigeria in back to back playoffs over the course of three days, then went to the CONCACAF and beat highly fancied Jamaica for this spot. So we have evidence that when things go wrong, they knuckle down and try again. They’ve also only conceded 3 goals in their last 12 games, and that includes a goalless draw with Denmark. Their main flaw is that in some of these games they took a boat load of chances to score. They need Bakambu and Wissa to take more of these chances. If they do, they make a tough group on paper very difficult in reality. But they could easily do a Morocco 2018, winning friends and not taking any of their many chances. And in a group with Portugal and Colombia that would be fatal. 

To be honest, my gut tells me one of the DRC or Uzbekistan make it to the KO round, with a win over the other and a draw against either Portugal or Colombia, but I can’t decide which, so they are both close to each other here. 

31 Iran

Iran were blessed with an easy group and then all hell broke loose. There are so many elephants in the room here, let’s try and touch on them far too lightly. My opposition to the Iranian regime remains as strong as it ever was, and all the (many) Iranian people I’ve met in real life have been lovely, intelligent, progressive people vastly different from the sods in charge of their country. I don’t think the Trump bombing has done anything but strengthen the regime. I don’t think the football team represent the regime, though it is a complicated mixture of protest, acceptance and fear. I really dislike (to put it mildly) the Iranian regime blocking the most pro-democracy players from playing for their national team, hobbling their own chances out of spite. I really don’t like the way the American government has gone out of its way to be difficult to a football team, who will have to bus 40 hours between matches and stay in a different country from the one hosting their matches. Overall, the Iranian team has been synonymous enough with protest over the years for me to want them to do well, while cursing any sods who try to jump on their cause. (Mahdavikia, possibly the finest Asian footballer of this century, got banned from his own team for supporting earlier protests against the regime, to pick up just one story over the years.)

Now with a literal siege mentality in the team, they’ve actually won their 3 friendlies since the war started, but they were against Costa Rica, Gambia and perennial chokers Mali. Many of the team who did briefly well in 2014, 2018 and 2022 are here: Ghoddos, Jahanbakhsh, Cheshmi, etc. In 2018 they were one miss in injury time away from KOing Portugal. In 2014, they came close to a great result against Messi’s Argentina. They got to the Asia Cup semifinals. This past decade has been a story of nearly men. Will this be any different? New Zealand and Egypt are perfect opponents to make it happen, but you have to feel the turmoil  is too much. (That said, if Iran finish 2nd in this group, they face the runners up of the USA’s group. Sods law incoming?)

30 Egypt

Egypt, despite being AFCON royalty, have never won a World Cup match. Somehow. This is even only their 4th World Cup, as many of their greater sides failed to qualify. They are in decent form, giving Brazil and Spain good games in recent memory, and getting to the AFCON semifinals in January, only losing to Senegal in a tight semifinal. What benefits Egypt is that whilst in 2018, an injury to Mo Salah left them toothless, now they have Marmoush and Trezeguet getting goals to lessen the weight on an aging Salah. They also play New Zealand and an Iran in turmoil. If they can’t win a World Cup game here, they might as well give up the game. Yes, I have Iran and Egypt next to each other as they are difficult to separate, and besides, if both beat New Zealand and draw, they’ll both reach the Holy Grail of the second round for the first time. 

29 South Africa

When I watched South Africa at the recent AFCON, they had intent to play attacking football which was pleasing on the eye. They also had a defence leakier than a sieve. In a group with South Korea, Mexico and the Czechs, they are the rank outsiders, and likely to win friends, but not influence the Cup. Still, I have them this far because in actual competitive matches of late, they’ve had goals in them, and South Korea’s charitable friendliness towards African sides could continue. Or, they could the side that drew Nicaragua and be totally trash. I like the forward duo of Apollis and Foster however. Plucky underdogs. 

28 Paraguay

Paraguay haven’t made the World Cup since their quarterfinal in 2010. Despite being thought of as a tough nut to crack in my mind, they were grouped at the last Copa America with three loses in three games. That includes a loss to Costa Rica, who aren’t even here. They also struggled to get goals in the latter half of WCQing, and have lost friendlies to a bunch of teams like South Korea and the USA. There is the potential for goals but not many: Enciso, Sanabria, Kaku score less internationally than you’d expect. Tight matches that could go either way, I think they’ll be a tough opponent in the KO stages ala Paraguay 2010 or Ecuador 2006, but equally I’ve sided 51-49 for a result in Paraguay/Australia that could easily flip. Yet every sim I’ve done of the cup has Paraguay in the semis, so maybe game AI knows more than I do!

(And as we go to print, I have learned that Enciso is injured and will miss their first 2 games. This might hobble them.)

27 Sweden

Sweden have been terribly. Dreadful in qualifying. Didn’t even make it to the Euros. Then they signed Graham Potter and scored 6 goals in 2 playoffs to get back to the World Cup. So for this one we have to rip up their entire form book and rely on the fact they have a good manager, and, if it turns up, a very strong attack. Isak and Gyokeres and Elanga, supported by Ayari. On paper they could do well. But it depends who turns up, qualifying Sweden or playoff Sweden.

26 Uruguay

Like most hipsters with silly beards, when I heard Marcello Bielsa was taking charge of Uruguay, I was all “this is going to be awesome”. Football’s great anarchist attack minded coach in charge of the most anarchistic national team in the world. This was going to be amazing. And when they got 10 points from their first 4 WCQ games, including wins over Brazil and Argentina, and then got to the Copa America semifinal (beating Brazil again in the process) it looked like this WAS going to be amazing. And then everything fell apart. The 1 win in 11 games sense of falling apart. Uruguay squeezed over the line in qualifying. They struggled to beat the Dominican Republic in a friendly, and got gubbed by the Americans. Since a win over Peru last year, they’ve been struggling badly for goals. What went wrong? Well, you know how amazing Bielsa is at inspiring teams? He’s also terrible at winning friends. A public fight with Luis Suarez led to Suarez’s international career ending and the ramifications on team morale. Uruguay in 2022 were an old team, and they’ve not really integrated any young players. They are reliant up front on Darwin Nunez. Their solid midfield (Betancur, Ugarte, Valverde, de Arrascaeta etc) means they are always in games, but they need that same midfield to supply the goals. As their group is relatively kind, they ought to beat Saudi Arabia and the Cape Verde Islands, but a likely last 32 appearance with Argentina will be a war, and the end of the road. 

25 Algeria

Algeria qualified for the World Cup very easily (in a soft group) and then played some great stuff at the AFCON until Nigeria abruptly ended them in the Quarterfinals. They were scoring a lot of goals, including from Riyad Mahrez who is still here and still scoring. Maza (Leverkusen), Gouiri (Marseille), Aouar (Al Ittihad) and Amoura (Wolfsburg) can be counted on for goals too. In recent games they held Uruguay and beat the Netherlands. In Rotterdam. This is a good side with goals in it, and they are playing a minnow. They are also playing Austria, a side they have had revenge in mind for a long time, since Gijon in 1982, when Austria blatantly cheated to screw Algeria out of their deserved 2nd round spot at the Spanish World Cup. I think they’ll qualify from this group, but I don’t have them higher because I think they’ll likely run into Spain or Belgium in the next round. 

24 Croatia

For a team representing Dad’s Army, Croatia did remarkably well in WCQ, finishing top easily ahead of the Czechs, fancied underdogs Montenegro and surprise package Faroe Islands. Since then they have taken on Brazil and Belgium in friendlies and easily lost, and beat Slovenia, but hey, Kosovo beat Slovenia. Zlatko Dalic’s Master Plan has worked wonders since 2017, taking Croatia to a World Cup final and a semifinal, against most predictions both times. But nowadays, they are really old. 18 of their squad are 26 or older, and half their likely starting 11 are the wrong side of 30. At the Euros in 2024, we saw how Modric and co tired as the group stage went on, and they are two years older now, and playing in the furnace of an American summer. Modric, Perisic, Kovacic, you wont hear me slag them off, they are all legends of the game. And ever since Croatia smashed Argentina in 2018, they have been a different beast at the World Cup. But I think this time, age will catch up, and while they should make the KO rounds, another Semifinal is far out of grasp, and maybe even the last 16, if they fight Colombia or Portugal (whom Croatia have never beaten in a competitive match). That said, interesting to see how Sucic and Sucic and Baturina do as the new generation. 

23 Canada

Canada, co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, have never gained a single point in their World Cup history. Even with an injury outbreak, if they can’t do it from this group, they should give up. The Jesse March project has been purring along slowly with only 1 loss in their last 18 games. Crashing out of the Gold Cup to Guatemala, and struggling against the likes of Iceland and Tunisia in recent friendlies is ominous. They’ll never get another chance to play the World Cup in front of their home crowds, and they have a bunch of talents playing at high levels across Europe: Tajon Buchanan was an ever present for Villarreal this season, Jonathan David has played constantly in Serie A for Juventus (though with 6 goals for his efforts), and popular defender Moise Bombito plays for Nice. I’m leaning on them having  an easy group and home advantage here though. 

22 USA

Surely they have too much individual talent to get grouped, is the song repeating in my head. The US have good players in midfield and goal options from numerous options: Pulisic, Balogun, the improving Haji Wright, etc. I like Tyler Adams a lot, and there’s always the promise that Reyna will have a big match. They also have a group which is easier than most as it lacks a big fish, and harder than most as it has four tough sides which go at it. Despite Spurs run to the CL final in 2019, and the obligatory PSG title, I’m unconvinced by Mauricio Pochettino, and am wary about his man management skills. Also their results in the last year are all over the place. They beat Uruguay 5-1, and recently beat fancied Senegal 3-2, but they’ve also been smashed 5-2 by a meh Belgium side* and 4-0 by the Swiss. They’ve played all 3 of their group stablemates in friendlies in fact, losing to Türkiye but beating Paraguay and Australia, all by the 2-1 scoreline. And if they do advance, they might well face Iran next. The US have the ability to run deep in this tournament, but I feel gravity and history is against them. They’d do well to get out of a tough group first. 

*Look, if I compliment Belgium's football team at all, my friend Steve Atkins gets hives and suffers a panic attack. For some reason he really doesn't trust my predictions! So yeah, meh Belgium, there you go, Steve!

21 Austria

I predicted Austria to be the dark horses for Euro 2016. Not letting them fool me again! Ralf Rangnick’s team looked amazing in the Euro group stages, then immediately lost to Türkiye in the KO rounds. They looked great in WCQ then nearly buggered it up to Bosnia. They have 2 defeats in their last 17 games, but haven’t scored more than once in nine of those. One of their top players, Baumgartner, is out. However, they are stocked to the gills with talent. Their midfield options (Schlager, Seiwald, Saibtzer, Laimer, etc) might be some of the best in the tournament. As a team who raise their game for bigger sides, they could easily get something off Argentina. They’re just untested in KO games. And I have a niggling inkling they could crash and burn. Argentina and Algeria could easily beat them, but then they have Jordan. Austria ought to be a contender, but I have too many doubts. 

20 Cote D’Ivoire

Ah, Cote D’Ivoire, you won friends in 2006 and 2010 but got grouped and in 2014, you utterly choked, sorry. Can the African entertainers finally make it out of a World Cup group? Well, you’d hope so. CDI were an entertaining team at the AFCON, going out in the quarterfinals to Egypt, but scoring 8 goals in their last 3 games in the result. They also didn’t concede a single goal in World Cup qualifying, a feat so incredibly rare as to be worth a standing ovation. They do have injuries, Seb Haller being the most notable forward who struggled for form (though to be fair, he did beat cancer). But they are going into the tournament in some very good form, not just the AFCON quarter and the undefeated WCQ, but in recent friendlies they have beaten South Korea, Scotland and most impressively France. France have lost 7 games from 40 since the last World Cup final, twice to Spain, twice to Germany, once to Croatia, Italy and the Cote D’Ivoire. That’s some rarefied air to be in. Up front they have goals. Amad always turns up for his country, young Diomande is a name to remember, and Inter’s highly fancied young Bonny is here too. They should get to the KO round for the first time, and have the fire power to do something there, but it would be entirely uncharted territory for them.

19 Ecuador

I’ve seen so many pro-Ecuador videos now that I’m beginning to think I must be underrating the obvious World champions to be. They’ve finally shown up at Copa America level, KOing Mexico in 2024 and taking Argentina to penalties in the quarterfinals. In the 2022 World Cup they got 4 points in the group stage, that would guarantee qualification now short of an insane Belgium Euro 2024 type group, and Curacao almost certainly prevent that here. Ecuador have a solid defence, and good midfield (Plata and Caicedo being the names you know), but up front, Enner Valencia is still there, and will probably add to his World Cup goal tally. And when you have a solid defence and a guy who can nab a goal, then you have a chance to go far in KO tournaments. But I feel that while solid, Ecuador aren’t an amazing side, and their manager is one of the weaker here, so they may repeat 2026, a good group stage followed by a decent first KO match undone by an inability to take their chances against a better opponent. 

18 Czech Rep/Czechia

The Czechs, always a fond team to look for at the Euros, are back at the World Cup for the first time in 20 years. They owe this to playoff wins over Denmark and the Irish, and for sacking the manager who lost to the Faroe Islands, and replacing him with the veteran Miroslav Koubek, who won the Czech league with Viktoria Plzen and who, with a managerial career stretching forty-three years, knows his way around a game. They are also a dab hand at penalties, winning both playoffs via them. The Czechs have enough solid good players to be the difference in tight games, and a propensity to bring out their A game against top opposition. This makes them a team not to underestimate in KO games. Patrik Schick, we Scots know too well from 2021, and he’s gotten better since. Injured Hlozek has just made the squad, and has goals in him, though few at international level so far. Krejci (despite the Wolves season), Soucek, Darida, aging but they have goals in them. As does Pavel Sulc, one of Lyon’s better players this past season. I think they’re tough opposition.

17 Belgium

With a strong qualifying run, and some good warm up friendlies (smashing Tunisia 5-0, beating Croatia away 2-0, annihilating USA 5-2 in Atlanta) other sources are talking up Belgium as potential winners. I am a sceptic on that one, though with their insanely easy group, and a kind draw there’s no reason why they can’t challenge for a quarterfinal spot. Several old timers, formerly world class, are still here: Witsel, De Bruyne, Lukaku. Not sure we can call Hans Vanaken world class but the shirt collector has some late career form. They’ve also got the class Doku for goals, and Youri Tielemans for… well more goals. Manager Rudi Garcia has a habit since leaving Lille of setting up great potential but being unable to finish the job. He took Marseille to the EL final, he took Lyon to the CL semifinal, a close but so far finish on the cards for the Belgians?

16 Mexico

The co-hosts, Mexico have been seeking their eternal Game Five since 1986. That being: win an actual KO round tie. They managed to deal with the lack of Game Five in 2022 by skipping a fourth match all together, being grouped at the World Cup for the first time since 1978. A few years back, disaster was expected for the Mexicans at this World Cup, going through a lousy period of results, but since then, two Gold Cup wins and the return of Javier Aguirre (as seen at the 2002 and 2010 World Cups) has steadied the ship. They are undefeated in 8 friendlies in 2026, beating the likes of Serbia and Ghana, and drawing Belgium and Portugal. Mexico play two of their three group stage games at the Azteca, which is one of the toughest places to play football on the planet. Including, when they aren’t playing well, for the home side! Home advantage, better form, and some fine players should get them to the KO round. Then, will they finally make it to Match 5? They have the talent to do so, but they have the belief in history holding them back. 17 year old wonderkid Gilberto Mora is one to watch, and the form of Santiago Giminez may foretell how far the Mexicans make it. 

Ignoring the last World Cup (ahem), my main takeaway from Mexico due to 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 etc is that Mexico may suck in the years before a World Cup, but they often remember how to play group stages when they get to the World Cup. 

15 Japan

I really like Japan's take on the game, their refusal to bow to better opposition, and their team. I fear they have far too many injuries (Mitoma especially is a bad loss) and they are in a bad group for things going badly, a loss to the Dutch and suddenly you need a result against dogged Tunisia or mercurial Sweden. It’s a bad omen. Yet, 2022 was meant to be a bad omen and they beat Spain and Germany. Also, the draw is terrible, if they finish in the top 2 here they face Brazil or Morocco! I like Japan too much to rank them below this point but I fear an early exit for them.

14 Colombia

A strong team in decent form (despite recent losses to Croatia and France), having scored 13 goals in 3 games against Venezuela, Mexico and Australia. In South American WCQ they were outscored only by Argentina. My old friend Jon tells me to look out for where the goals can come from in these things, and Colombia have all over the place. Luis Diaz, the Bayern striker, is on a rich vein of form for country. Luis Suarez (not that one) stood out in Europe for Sporting CP, Crystal Palace’s Lerma and James Rodriguez (if fit) are troublesome for any opponents. They are however in a very tricky group, and if go into the Portugal game needing a win it could be difficult. Most pundits expect Colombia to go far in this tournament, and I’m not contrary enough to disagree. (Though again, difficult group first.)

13 Senegal

Senegal are one of the best teams in Africa, they are free scoring, and expected to be difficult for France in the group stage. Despite this, I have worries, in that losing to France and then Norway and struggling against a resolute Iraq in a must win feels like a possible scenario. But then, that’s why it’s a group of death. If Senegal get out of their group, they could go far. Getting out of the group is the trick. They looked very good in their AFCON win (what do you mean they didn’t win it?). They should have a defining World Cup, but I have worries. 

12 Norway

With 2 defeats in their last 18, one of the few sides with form to threaten Spain. They have a side full of goal scorers you all know well: Sorloth, Nusa, Odegaard, some guy called Erling Haaland, and a bunch of promising younger talents playing at high levels like Berge and Bobb at Fulham. And they smashed World Cup qualifying, and especially Italy. But they are utterly un tournament tested. They haven’t qualified for anything since Euro 2000. We can’t base them on anything historical. We do know that they have lost to Scotland, and drawn New Zealand and Switzerland in recent years, and got smashed by Austria in the Nations League. But then they smashed Italy 7-1 on aggregate, beat Israel 5-0, put 11 past Moldova in the one game. They have the squad and form to go far. But they need to prove it. In a group of death. Their first game against Iraq will probably tell us more than the France game tbh. 

11 Turkey/Türkiye 

Türkiye will either be grouped or be quarterfinalists, there is no middle ground. From this placing, you can see where I am sticking my prediction! Vincenzo Montella’s side played so well at the Euros, but once again proved Turkey’s kryptonite is playing the big teams. Still, there is no big team in their group, so if their fantastic firepower up front gets going they could have fun here. Türkiye are on a good run, undefeated since their 6-0 loss to Spain in qualifying. Like I said, I admire Turkey’s willingness to take on anyone, but sometimes it can show why no one else does that! Since then, they drew 2-2 in Spain, smashed fancied Georgia, and beat Romania and Kosovo in the playoffs to get to their first World Cup in 24 years. Which is nuts for a team like Turkey. In 2006, they lost a fiery playoff to the Swiss, which annoyed everyone who later sat through Swiss/Ukraine. In 2010, they lost out on a playoff to Bosnia (who lost to Portugal). In 2014, they lost out to a playoff to Romania. In 2018, they lost out on a playoff to Croatia.  In 2022 they lost in the playoffs to Portugal. Barring 2014 and Greece, they always had one bigger side blocking their route, even if they had made the playoffs. Anyhow, that was then and this is now, and now they’ve got Guler, Yildiz, Gul and Akturkoglu up front, which might be the best combination of goals for a non top 5 nation here. In midfield Ozcan and Calhanoglu are still there to supply the ball. In defence, they’ve got the great Celik, Brighton’s Kadioglu, and Fenerbahce’s Fox Muldur. I like this team a lot, and I like that they go out to have a go, and aim to score goals. They ought to do well, unless my prediction kiss of death kills them. Follow where the goals are, Jon Arnold says, and this lot have lots of them. 

10 Switzerland

Murat Yakin has been manager of the Swiss for 5 years now, and under him they have been reassuringly consistent. They made the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup, only to have the misfortune to crash into a Ronaldo-less Portugal running rampant. At the last Euros, they trashed Hungary, drew the German hosts (German only tying in injury time), easily swatted Italy, and then came within 10 minutes, and later a penalty shootout, from ousting Gareth Southgate’s England side in the quarterfinals. This was their second straight Euro quarterfinal too. The Mexico of Europe is starting to learn how to win KO matches. It’s weird for a fan who endured the 2006 World Cup to think about, but the Swiss are one of the entertainers of Europe these days, and if they had more consistent goal scorers they’d be a threat to win this Cup. They scored over 2 goals a game in qualifying, they smashed 2 of the 3 co-hosts in friendlies in the last year, and their match with Germany in March was entertaining but leaked like a sieve.  Both Emoblo and Ndoye have been in good form for their country in the past 12 months, and I like the look of youngsters Jashari and Manzambi. Xhaka is still there, too.  There’s goals in this side, spread out through the team. It’s a team that on paper, could easily go deep in a KO round.

9 Morocco

Not the AFCON champs, but probably the African side mostly likely to advance. Though they have a potential last 32 match with the Dutch which ought to knock both down a few pegs, but in true having cake/eating it, I think the winner of that hypothetical tie can go far and so am hedging my bets! The usual suspects (Hakimi, Amrabat, Diaz) still dominate this tough team. 

8 Germany

Germany got grouped at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, and were robbed in the 2024 Euro quarterfinals. They’ve won their last 8 matches since that loss in qualifying to Slovakia. Their team has players you all know: Havertz, Woltemade, Sane, Wirtz, Musiala, Kimmick, all players who can turn games. Youngster Karl’s sad injury gives a spot to Assan Ouedraogo, and it will be interesting to see what he or Pavlovic do if given a chance. We all know Germany’s strength and weaknesses. The problem for them is that if things go well, they could face France in the last 16, and if things go badly, they might get Brazil in the last 16. An early potential roadblock stymies’ the chances for this team. 

7 Portugal

Portugal are potential World Champions, hamstrung by an eccentric manager and an aging problem up front. Roberto Martinez is Roberto Martinez’s favourite manager. Remember in 2018 he said that no one had ever beaten him tactically, only for Didier Deschamps to do that days later?  Portugal won the Nations League in 2025, but frankly sucked for large portions of their Euro 2024 quarterfinal run. I know that Scots calling others Euro 2024 sucky is a case of people in glasshouses throwing stones, but seriously: Portugal went 360 minutes without scoring a single goal at one point! And Cristiano Ronaldo played all but 25 minutes of that run. Ronaldo hasn’t scored in Portugal’s last 5 games, though he was suspended for one of them. And was meant to be suspended for World Cup games, but that got overturned by FIFA... due to him being Ronaldo. But herein lies the problem for me. Ronaldo still scores goals for Portugal, but the team supplying the ball to him tends to get in the way of the team scoring otherwise, and so, despite them scoring 15 goals in 7 competitive games in 2025 with him, I point to them scoring 15 goals in 2 games without him against the Swiss and Armenia. With Ramos for goals and talented Conceicao and Trincao around him, and an insanely amazing midfield of Vitinha, Neves and Silva, Portugal will be in at the deep end in this tournament, but I think their number one player is a 41 year old albatross. And Portugal wont play with the freedom, verve and style they have shown their youngsters have, until he goes. 

6 Netherlands

The Dutch, as usual, have an insanely talented squad, a manager who on his day produces some fine attacking football, and recent results which are a mix of Total Football and some results that make you go hmmm. Like losing to Algeria. Or only just sneaking past Lithuania in qualifying. Virgil van Dijk was a pillar in defence for years, but now has holes in his game. Dumfries is one of their best goal scorer, and he’s a defender. Gravenberch hasn’t done as well internationally as for Liverpool, and Cody Gakpo is both the most talented person in the squad and the most infuriating. Malen of Roma provided important goals at the Euros, and will need to do so here. But the Dutch and the World Cup go together, and they should get out of the group, and after that, who knows? They’ve got the team to beat any of the top 5 on their day. They could also randomly lose to Morocco in the last 32!

5 Brazil

With Carlo Ancelotti in charge, and the likes of Estevao and Rodrygo in attack, I was thinking Brazil could win this cup. Then Estevao and Rodrygo suffered Cup preventing injuries, and while you can never count out Brazil, I think they are a step behind the top 3. Also their midfield is reliant on Casemiro (old), Fabinho (old, playing in a retirement league), and Bruno “suffers from Newcastle-it is” Guimaraes. That’s porous. Vini Jr, Raphina, Endrick, could all get goals up front but this side feels like it will hit a brick wall in the quarterfinals.  

4 England

England haven’t looked great under Thomas Tuchel. They win, but they seem a bit goal shy. They win a lot, but they seem vulnerable to sides who will harry and harass a midfield and defence like Japan and Senegal (both of whom they have lost to in the last year). I’m not sure how you take a team with all those talents, and make them lesser. They’ll get through the group stage, and should go far in the tournament, but as soon as they face France, or Spain, or Argentina, or maybe even Brazil, they will hit a brick wall. Despite this they have some of the best players in the tournament with Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford. (Don’t @ me!) And enough exciting talent (Eze, Mainoo) to be difference makers. But they ought to be one of the favourites, and I guess ranked 4th, they are, but I watch them huffing and puffing to score against New Zealand and just can’t see it. 

3 France

A team of World class players bickering. Didier Deschamps, mercurial, infuriating, tactically a genius. They’ve made two World Cup finals and a Euro final under his watch. This is his swan song. Their main attack – deep breath, Olise, Rabiot, Cherki, Dembele, Thuram, Barcola, Doue, Mbappe – have scored a combined 156 goals between them in the 2025-26 season. So, they might do OK, I guess. France will be in and about the latter stages. They have the defence to grind out wins too, and hasn’t Deschamps shown us that a lot too. Yet a recent loss to the Cote D’Ivoire has people panicking. In the way a win over Brazil hasn’t. Famous last words, they’re too good not to be in the Semifinals at worst. 

2 Spain

They won Euro 2024, they were undefeated in qualifying, and they have 2 defeats in their last 41 international games. They’ve got some of the best players on the planet. Yet, they’ve struggled with defensive teams in recent friendlies, Lamine Yamal is coming back from injury, they haven’t won a World Cup KO game since they won the World Cup, and they are more allergic to penalties than the English. That’s my attempt to put any doubt on them reaching the Semis at worst. That said, if Argentina finish runner up in their group, Spain/Argentina in the last 32 will be fun!

1 Argentina

A shock top of the pops for me, but: they’ve won the Copa America in 2021 and 2025. They won the last World Cup. They made WCQ in South America look easy, beating Brazil home and away to the aggregate score of 5-1, trashing Bolivia in La Paz (their cheat code home ground), and finished 9 points clear of anyone else. They have only lost 5 games in their last EIGHTY matches, and 3 of those were in WCQ after they had all but qualified and were in chillax mode. They’ve done this through having an amazing team, from Alvarez and Enzo, through Mac Allister (suffering domestic this season admittedly), Almada and Lo Celso, Martinez and Tagliafico. Oh, and they’ve still got Leo Messi, you might have heard of him. After decades of stress, Argentina have taken to winning tournaments like a toddler takes to eating sweets. And having done it now, they play with a complete lack of stress. They did the main job in 2022, Messi did it in 2022, all of this is just the afterparty. But Argentina’s will to win, their recent multiple tournament wins, their form, the World Champions are top until someone beats them. And if they do, that someone will become as immortal in the history books of this beautiful game as this Argentinian side will be. 

So there, have at it. The best thing about this will be to see how wrong it winds up, because while we can guess every result on paper, and estimate team strengths, every game starts goalless! Who saw Morocco, Croatia, Costa Rica, Ghana’s runs in recent Cup 4 days before they started? Here’s hoping for a good one, oh, and if in doubt, tell that American President to fuck off.