Michael: It’s an actual football tournament. If you are reading this, well done on getting this far through the End of Days (TM tabloids). Euro 2020, in 2021, where the mighty Scotland and 22 other teams compete to determine who is going to lose in the final to France!
Jon: Here
we are then, with the last of football’s great rush to make sure every single
competition threatened by the pandemic actually happens.
Michael:
Yeah, football, football, football, err, keep safe…
Jon: I
suspect that if they’d cancelled the tournament there’d have been riots on the
streets of Glasgow. Well, in one household I can think of anyway…
Michael: Oh
right, yeah, foot… ball? Elephant in the room, Scotland qualify for a bloody
tournament and I’ll miss part of their first match getting my first covid
vaccine jab, which is 4 months late!
Jon: So,
with players knackered after a compressed season and, in some cases, carrying
major or minor knocks (as I type Mason Greenwood has withdrawn from the England
squad to rest) here come the delayed Euros: on the one hand we’re unlikely to
see the best of the finest talents, on the other players not being in tip top
form promises a little chaos and perhaps that simply being well-organised won’t
benefit teams as much as it did with say Greece in 2004 or Portugal in 2016.
So: potentially plenty of fun in the offing (and some Scotland matches).
Michael: I
root for chaos and goals, myself.
Gav: Are
your lot in it?
Michael:
YES! Scotland are there, and Wales, and some other team. Eng…land?
Gav: Oh
yeah, that country whose teams play in Portugal even during a pandemic?
Michael:
Gotta protect those UEFA sponsors!
Our usual suspects - me, Jon Arnold, Joao Diogo Reis and Gavin Mills...
A
Jon: So Wales…
Michael: Hang on, you know there are other teams to talk about first?
Jon: Really?
Michael: Yes. Italy are back for one.
Jon: Oh, alright then, let’s talk about the whipping boys…
Michael: The old joke about “worst Italian side ever being still full of Italians” took a knock when not so Ace Ventura failed to qualify them for the World Cup. A few home games in a major tournament ought to provide some tonic! If teams react differently to humiliation, there’s no doubting Italy’s reaction to disaster: winning all ten of their qualifiers in a row. Roberto Mancini has Italy playing as a progressively attacking side, which isn’t a surprise to anyone who, you know, saw any Mancini side play in the last twenty years. (Also, no matter how many Lippi’s or Prandelli’s come along, Italy playing anything other than 0-0 football continues to surprise the casual media!) Mancini tried to get in Jons good books also, declaring Group A has 3 tough games for the Azzurri. The team practice “palleggio” ie a passing attacking game.
Jon: Italy are one of the most interesting prospects at this tournament. Lest we forget, they failed to qualify for the last World Cup but on the other hand they haven’t lost for twenty-two competitive matches, even if they’ve not played many top twenty sides in that time. Nevertheless, you can’t argue with the way they qualified: ten out of ten, impressive even in a relatively straightforward group. Mancini’s used the past three years wisely to settle the side into a very modern 4-3-3 formation based around Jorginho’s intelligent distribution. All three of their group matches will be played in Rome too, so this is a group very much set up in their favour and even Marco Veratti missing group games with injuries shouldn’t cause too many problems.
Italy will likely get through the group in straightforward fashion but going further might well depend on whether Ciro Immobile can provide the goals for them.
Joao: Ever since Italy won the 2006 World Cup, they had a lot of problems in subsequent World Cups (couldn’t progress from the group stages in 2010 and 2014 and couldn’t even qualify in 2018). However, in Euros their results have been much better, with a quarterfinal in 2008 (eliminated against eventual winners Spain in a penalty shootout), beaten finalist in 2012 (against eventual winners Spain once again) and again quarterfinals in 2016 (eliminated in a penalty shootout by Germany). The last time that they were eliminated in a Euro group stage was in 2004. In Euro 2000, Italy and Turkey were also in the same group, Italy won 2-1 and went all the way to the final.
They should advance from the group stage. The only two times that they couldn’t they were 3rd placed with 4 points (Euro 1996) and 5 points (Euro 2004), and with the fourth best third placed teams advancing too, even those scores from the past should suffice to advance now
Michael: Bad news for Italy. No one has ever done the Eurovision/Euros double.
Michael: Turkey might be the only team glad of the year long delay. Last May, their team was in disarray with injuries to several top players. All have since recovered. Turkey beat France in the qualifying for this tournament, which I think marks them out as a dangerous team. They don’t concede much (8 clean sheets in 10 games), and Senol Gunes is back for another run with the national team. The opening match could be Turkish defence vs Italian attack! They are in good form so IF they click, they could be a fun side that go deep in the tournament, like their more famous predecessors at Euro 2008 and the 2002 World Cup.
Jon: Turkey qualified impressively in a tough group, taking four points from France and only being denied topping the table by frustrating games against Iceland. They’re not particularly prolific, averaging less than two goals a game but their defence is incredibly tight: just three goals conceded in eight games – there aren’t many better partnerships at this tournament than Soyuncu and Demiral. If they can keep things tight they might well trouble teams in the knockout stages.
Michael: All I’m saying is if defensive football is a 3-3 draw with one of the weakest sides in Europe, followed by beating Holland 4-2 and the Norwegians 3-0, that’s the sort of defensive minded football we want to see…
Joao: Turkey only qualified to the Euro for the first time in 1996 when it was expanded to 16 teams. That first participation was the worst, they lost every match and couldn’t even score a single goal. Their second participation in 2000 was a lot better, they reached the quarter finals, and their third in 2008 was even better, they reached the semifinals. In 2016 they qualified for the fourth time and this time they couldn’t progress from the group stage. Turkey lost 1-2 against Italy in Euro 2000, and won 2-1 against Switzerland in Euro 2008. In both tournaments they progressed from the group stages, so meeting again Italy and Switzerland is a good omen. Turkey is the only team in this group that couldn’t progress from the group stages in Euro 2016, but their current squad is almost entirely different compared to that, and their manager Senol Gunes took them to the 2002 World Cup third place, perhaps he can succeed once again.
I don’t expect them to be one of the best four third placed teams, because they’re in a balanced group, and also because they’re the first group to finish round 3, so they won’t have the advantage of knowing the final score of other third placed teams and knowing which score they’ll need to be one of the best four third placed teams
Michael: Are we over the Ukraine match yet?
Jon: I still twitch at the thought of Switzerland at a major tournament: Michael will no doubt recall with horror the black hole at the heart of the absence of football that was their match against Ukraine in the 2006 World Cup.
Michael: Didn’t think so.
Jon: Still, I made a fortune in fantasy points from Philippe Senderos.
Michael: The Swiss are on a forever loop of qualifying for major tournaments, getting out of the group, and then insipidly losing the first knockout match. It’s the same manager from the last two tournaments, most of the same team, and likely most of the same results. They beat Belgium 5-2 in 2019. They beat Germany 5-3 in 2012 and that didn’t lead to anything either. The biggest threat is the potential for a Switzerland/Ukraine repeat in the last sixteen…
Jon: They still don’t score too freely, with more than half of their nineteen qualifying goals coming against the mighty Gibraltar… Still, they’re experts at negotiating group stages under Vladimir Petkovic so they’re a tough obstacle even for the Italians.
Joao: Switzerland doesn’t have an impressive history in Euros. They only qualified for the first time in 1996 when it was expanded to 16 teams. They only won a match in their 9th attempt, in Euro 2008. And they only progressed from the group stages for the first time in their 4th attempt, in Euro 2016, when the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. Switzerland lost 1-2 against Turkey at home in Euro 2008
Michael: In a match that had one of my favourite goals ever. No, not Arda Turan, the rain pissing down so badly the ball got stuck in a puddle for Hakan Yakin’s tap in!
Joao: Switzerland has a low success rate advancing from group stages (only once in four attempts), but the success was in the most recent attempt, they keep the manager that did it, and they were the only team in this group that also played the 2018 Word Cup.
Michael: It’s been brought to my attention that Jon Arnold is Welsh. This may have come up when he wrote a book about Wales at the last Euros, I don’t know. Go on, m’colleague, this is your time to shine…
Jon: First tournament: quarter-finalists. Second tournament: semi-finalists. There’s a pattern emerging there, so I’m readying myself for the heartbreak when Wales narrowly miss out to the equally shock finalists of North Macedonia…
Anyway, this qualifying for a major championship thing has become quite mundane hasn’t it? I could get used to this… There’s not quite the exuberance of Euro 2016 in Wales: no records from the Manics or the Super Furry Animals, and for obvious reasons not the same level of Welsh support intent on enjoying their first major tournament since The Quarrymen recorded their first songs. Wonder what became of them... Nor is there man who scored the greatest goal in the history of international football – Hal Robson-Kanu didn’t make the final squad. It’s a hard-headed approach from a country which loves a bit of romance.
It’s been an odd build-up for Wales. I admit I was a cynic about the appointment of Ryan Giggs as national manager and well, I was right for all the wrong reasons. Giggs’s assistant Rob Page is caretaker for the tournament (and likely for a significant chunk of the remaining World Cup qualifying too): his appointment saw Wales become a far better organized side and ship fewer goals. This may not be as exciting a side as the 2016 counterparts – Gareth Bale is still useful but not quite the player he was in 2016, even if his turbulent relationship with Zidane mean he’s Wales first, golf second and Madrid third. Still, a nice end to his Spurs loan spell suggests he’s ready to go and might well have something of an Indian Summer. Wales scrabbled around for goals during qualifying, just ten across their eight games and no one scoring more than twice. Look for more tight low-scoring games but whether the verve and resilience that enabled that famous comeback against Belgium last time is there is a big question.
Michael: Once upon a time, Wales never qualifying for anything was one of the settled permanent fixtures of world football, but now they have qualified for two Euros in a row, and we have to ask about another stat ie will the Welsh continue their trend of always qualifying from the group stage? 1958 World Cup and Euro 2016 is a trend, right?
Jon: Damn straight!
Michael: This group is tougher than the one they had in 2016. Italy are better than England, Turkey are better than Slovakia and Switzerland are more consistent than Russia. They need to be at their best, and the managerial situation really wont help matters at all. In comes Rob Page, former Port Vale manager, to get the Leslie Neilsen “no pressure but we’re all counting on you talk.”
Teamwise, the old favourites are still there. Aaron Ramsey had to recover from an injury to play his role as footballs Grim Reaper (according to twitter lore about his rare goals coinciding with celebrity deaths), and Gareth Bale was so underused at Real Madrid he willing went to Spurs on loan. In burly Cardiff striker Kieffer Moore they’ve found a match winner, and Daniel James experience at Old Trafford cant be undervalued. Mostly this is quite a young squad, as Welsh youth focus is starting to pay dividends – 15 of 26 players are 25 or considerably younger, so could get valuable education at this tournament to tackle the World Cup qualifiers.
Joao: Wales only played the Euros once, in 2016, and they reached the semifinals. In a “points per game” criteria, they’re the best team in Euro’s history, with 4 wins and 2 defeats in 6 matches, 2 points per game. Wales Euro 2020 squad only has 8 players left from the Euro 2016 squad that reached the semifinals: Hennessey, Ward, Gunter, Ben Davies, Allen, Bale, Ramsey and Jonny Williams.
It’s nearly impossible to repeat the result from Euro 2016 (but to be honest the expectations in 2016 were also low and they did it anyway). The other three teams have experienced managers. Progressing from the group stage again would already be impressive.
Michael: Robert Mancini won Serie A as a player and manager and won the Premier League with Manchester City in 2012. A devoted Corrie fan, he’s quite popular as Italy manager, they’ve already tied him down in a contract for World Cup qualifying. That’s the 2026 World Cup! Senol Gunes, you might recall, was the manager who took Turkey to the World Cup semifinals in 2002,and has since won the Turkish league twice with Besiktas. Vladimir Petkovic has been Swiss manager for 7 years, and in that time they’ve invented the cuckoo clock… Rob Page won the Manager of the Month award in League 1 once.
Joao: Roberto Mancini reached the UEFA Cup semifinals in 2002/2003 as Lazio’s manager, but ever since then he was never able to return to a semifinal. The furthest he ever reached was the Champions League quarterfinals in 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 in charge of Inter despite multiple attempts with Inter, Manchester City, Galatasaray, Inter again, and finally Zenit. Qualifying Italy to a Euro where there’s room for almost half of UEFA’s members isn’t an achievement, not even with a perfect 10-0-0 record.
Vladimir Petkovic had good results in club football (for instance, he took Lazio to the EL quarterfinals in 2012/2013) and ever since he became Switzerland’s manager the results were also good. The next goal for Vladimir Petkovic should be advancing from the group stages once again (like in Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup), preferably undefeated (like in Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup), and then not being eliminated in the last 16 round (unlike Euro 2016 against Poland, the 2018 World Cup against Sweden, and before Petkovic’s arrival, in the 2014 World Cup too against Argentina).
Senol Gunes was Turkey’s manager in the 2002 World Cup, when they were third placed, the best result ever in Turkey’s national team history. After that he had some good results in club football, like taking Besiktas for the first time ever to the CL last 16 in 2017/2018. But there were bad results too, like not even progressing from the EL group stage in 2015/2016 and again in 2018/2019.
Rob Page is the interim manager. Wales has a big disadvantage compared to its Group A opponents Switzerland, Italy and Turkey. While they all have managers with several achievements, Wales has a nobody that wasn’t even responsible for qualifying them to Euro 2020.
Michael: Apologies to any Port Vale fans…
Michael: Manuel Locatelli’s form for Sassuolo has seen a breakthrough into the national team in the last year. We don’t get the Turkish league here so I am curious to see young midfielder Halil Dervisoglu who broke into the national team this year, and he just scored his first international goal against Azerbaijan too. Kieffer Moore is the man who will score goals but I feel like Dylan Levitt and Ethan Ampadu will be far better known in football circles in a few weeks’ time. Let’s see what Ruben Vargas of Augsburg manages if he ever gets a game. Only 3 of this Swiss side are over the age of 30 so we could see them at many more tournaments to come…
Jon: You sound enthralled.
Frankly Gareth Bale is way too obvious – as he goes, so go the team probably – so let’s take Harry Wilson, who’s impressed on loan at Cardiff this year including grabbing his first ever professional hat trick. Gianluigi Donnarumma: the talent and energy of youth with the smarts of a much more experienced player who might well see the tournament as a chance to add a few thousand a week to what’s no doubt going to be the whopping contract he’ll earn as a free agent. Burak Yilmaz might be in his mid-30s but has just produced a career best season at Lille to help them to the French title.
Michael: Yes, Lille beating Paris St Germain to the French title was shocking and very, very, very funny.
Jon: As for the Swiss…
Michael: I can see where this is going…
Jon: Xherdan Shaqiri.
Michael: I am stunned, stunned, that a Liverpool player got a mention already. (Yeah I know, he’s one of their few consistent performers at international level too!)
Jon: He’s had a patchy season at Liverpool but has the potential to make this team tick.
Joao: Shaqiri was one of Switzerland’s finest players in the last three major tournaments. Will he also be important in Euro 2020? He wasn’t even used in the Euro 2020 qualifiers.
Michael: I vote we rename Switzerland “Shaqiri’s Football Mates”.
Joao: Chiesa had an impressive debut in CL this season, with 4 goals in 8 matches.
Seferovic played two World Cups and one Euro for Switzerland, and in 11 matches was only able to score one goal. Will his efficiency improve in Euro 2020? His goalscoring record in club football isn’t encouraging, with only 5 goals scored in 35 CL or EL matches.
Yusuf Yazici scored 7 goals in this season’s Europa League and was one of the tournament’s top scorers. Irfan Kahveci scored 5 goals in 15 CL or EL matches for Istanbul Basaksehir over the last two seasons.
Ramsey was one of Wales’ best players in Euro 2016. Many people believe that if he wasn’t suspended in the semifinal against Portugal, perhaps Wales could have reached the final. James played 15 CL or EL games for Manchester United over the last two seasons, scoring 3 goals.
Jon: Wales v Switzerland - Whoever wins this will be in pole position to qualify with Italy, so it's likely to be the game that shapes the group.
Michael: Watch Switzerland v Turkey be the thriller now we’ve both ignored it! Wales - a good sequel to 2016 or after the mayors speech disappointment? They have a number of impressive young players, but the managerial issue is a mess. They could go 0-0-3 or make the Quarterfinals again, and I’m not sure which.
Joao: Italy, Switzerland
Michael: Italy, Switzerland, Turkey (sorry Jon, I've just twigged Turkey/Wales is happening IN Azerbaijan, which does for Wales in my book.)
Jon: It’s tough to look beyond Italy to win the group – in the age of the superstar Mancini has assembled a team with no real out and out stars but exceeds the sum of its parts and is capable of some very easy on the eye football. I suspect the rest of the group will be tight, with one goal here and there deciding games so I’ll take the side with the player most likely to provide an edge in tight games: Bale for Wales never fails.
(Italy, Wales)
Joao: Immobile has a good goalscoring record for Lazio (16 goals in 23 CL and EL matches over the last four seasons) but although he already played the 2014 World Cup and Euro 2016 he never scored in a major tournament for Italy.
Michael: My main worry (if you can call it that) about this group is a historical quirk – since 1990, at both Euros and World Cup, only one opening game has seen both teams qualify for the next round, and that was Portugal/Greece in 2004!
Gav: This tells me to put money on Turkey to win the Euros!
Michael: Please don’t. You bet on Thomas Pekhart to be top goalscorer for the last 4 tournaments and he wasn’t even a footballer at the first one!
Michael: With a number of good midfielders/forwards in the team, if Denmark could be one of the stories of the tournament. Their reputation as the cool friend who never stays long enough at parties was slightly dented by missing the last Euros. Age Hariede is out (a covid delay managerial casualty) and former Mainz manager Kasper Hjulmand is in. The new Denmark are the types to defend against stronger opponents and murder teams when on top.
Jon: Surprisingly, this is only Denmark’s second appearance at a Euros since 2004.
Michael: Annoyingly! Who doesn’t love Denmark at a major tournament? Bar those who sat through their match with the French at the last World Cup…
Jon: We’ve at least got a decent idea of how this group might fare from last year’s Nations League games – Belgium comfortably beat this Danish side home and away. This is a side which went unbeaten in qualifying but finished second to a Switzerland side they took four points from and outscored by four goals during the campaign – a pair of draws against an awkward Ireland side cost them the group. That hints at an issue, a lack of goals in key games, which will likely cost them against better sides.
Michael: I’ve got this weird feeling the Danes will beat Belgium on their own patch, to be honest.
Joao: Denmark played its first Euro in 1964, then had to wait two decades to play it again in 1984, and then between 1984 and 2004 they qualified uninterruptedly to all six editions, winning it in 1992. However, in the last three editions, they missed two (2008 and 2016) and in the other they couldn’t progress from the group stage. Denmark defeated Belgium 3-2 in Euro 1984. In Euro 1964 semifinals they lost 0-3 against the Soviet Union.
Denmark’s manager isn’t the one that qualified them to Euro 2020 and took them to the 2018 World Cup last 16. They had worse results than Belgium over the last three cycles (2014 World Cup, Euro 2016 and 2018 World Cup) and worse results than Russia over the last four cycles (Euro 2012 too)
Michael: We now toll the bell ten times for Jon’s injured favourite…
Jon: Alas, poor Dzagoev, we hardly knew ye. Again, Russia’s most gifted player of the last decade is absent: it looks like the 2012 Euros were a career highlight rather than a springboard. I won’t be bitter…
*weeps*
Anyway…
Their qualifying group again gives us a good guide to expectations: fourteen goals against San Marino inflated their goals for tally somewhat but they qualified comfortably behind a Belgian side which put seven past them in two games. They’re not going to be too much of a fun team to watch and it might well be that they’ve found their level here – recent form’s been best described as mixed despite a good start to World Cup qualifying.
Michael: The Russians got to the Quaterfinals of the World Cup at home, to the surprise of many, and host two of their group stage matches this time out. However, there are reasons to be concerned. First off, Igor Akinfeev, their long-standing goalkeeper who produced heroics at the World Cup, has retired from international duty and none of the replacements stand out in the same class. Secondly, Russia played Belgium twice in the qualifying, and conceded seven goals. Dzyuba is back as the captain after being dropped from the squad over the leaking of a sexually explicit video. Despite the existence of Yuri Zhirkov, this side is inexperienced. 10 of their squad have less than 20 caps between them. Despite having the likes of Golovin, Miranchuk and Cheryshev from the World Cup to boost hopes, this feels like a tournament too late for half the squad, and too early for the other half. In a group with contenders, dangerous outsiders and a neighbour, this could be very difficult territory. (Aren’t you glad the BBC are covering Finland/Russia? I can almost smell their history video packages…)
Joao: As Soviet Union, Russia won the first Euro edition in 1960. In 1964 they were beaten finalists, in 1968 they were 4th placed and in 1972 they were again beaten finalists. Then they missed the following 3 editions, were again beaten finalists in 1988, and couldn’t progress from the group stages in 1992 (as “CIS”). The Soviet Union was a superpower in Euros, winning once and being beaten finalist another 3 times. Ever since they started playing as Russia, the results were a lot worse, with four group stage eliminations (1996, 2004, 2012 and 2016) and only once going further (2008, when they reached the semifinals)
As Soviet Union, Russia won 3-0 against Denmark in Euro 1964 semifinals. Russia lost twice, aggregate score 2-7, against Belgium in Euro 2020 qualifiers.
Russian clubs had disastrous results in European competitions over the last two seasons, and most Russia’s national team players play for Russian clubs. However, they keep Stanislav Cherchesov that took them to the World Cup quarterfinals, and even if that can be explained with “home advantage”, they’ll play at home in their first two games in Euro 2020, so if that was an “advantage” then it should still be.
Michael: Belgium return to the Euros with an array of talent, and have to be considered among the favourites. Their flamboyant 3-4-3 formation helped them become top scorers in qualifying. De Bruyne (providing he gets by an injury) and Hazard and Lukaku are all older, and while Tielemans adds to the midfield, they were lacking any answers in a crunch semifinal at the last World Cup. And who is potentially in their way this time? France again…
Jon: Ten wins out of ten, an average of four goals a game and just three conceded. Every game won by at least a comfortable two goal margin. That’s what you call living up to your status as the best team in the world, a position they’ve held for nearly three years. Obviously they’re one of the favourites going into the tournament, but they’re a side that’s been disadvantaged by the pandemic enforced delay: Axel Witsel is still recovering from a torn achilles tendon and Kevin de Bruyne sustained a fractured nose and eye socket during Manchester City’s Champions League final defeat. It helps to have the embarrassment of riches that lets you sub in Leandro Dendoncker and Youri Tielemans of course, but it’s still a slight drop off which might cost if the pair aren’t fit for the latter stages of the tournament. And of course there’s then Eden Hazard’s injury induced struggles at Real – can he be the same player we saw during his years at Chelsea? This might be this Belgium side’s last big chance at a maiden title –de Bruyne turns 30 during the tournament, Hazard is already 30 and their hugely experience backline are all in their mid-30s and vulnerable to players running at them. They’ve been impressive in beating teams they should beat, but under Martinez have looked shaky in knockout stages bar an impressive win over Brazil at the 2018 World Cup. That 3-1 defeat to Wales in the easier half of the Euro 2016 draw and lacklustre World Cup semi-final against France are disappointing from a likeable and talented team. Perhaps there’s no team in the tournament with so much to prove, but they’re among the favourites for a good reason.
Joao: Until Euro 2016, Belgium never won more than one match in any of the Euro editions that they’ve played (1972, 1980, 1984 and 2000). In Euro 2016, they finally won more than once, they were quarterfinalists with 3 wins and 2 defeats. But they’re overall Euros record is still negative, with more defeats than wins, and with a negative goal difference. Perhaps that will change after Euro 2020.
Belgium lost 2-3 against Denmark in Euro 1984. They never played against Russia in a Euro final tournament, but they were in the same group in the Euro 2020 qualifiers, and Belgium won twice, aggregate score 7-2 Only 6 players in Belgium’s Euro 2020 squad were never at a major tournament: Sels, Castagne, Praet, Vanaken, Doku and Trossard.
Belgium shouldn’t have much troubles against a team that couldn’t win a single game in Euro 2016 (Russia), another that couldn’t even qualify (Denmark) and another that is an debutant (Finland).
Michael: The thing I can’t escape is how much Finland remind me of Iceland.
Jon: That’s not a bad comparison, actually.
Michael: Solid side, don’t let in many goals, striker best known for run in England…
Jon: This is my thing with underdogs. I look at them and go “who’s scoring?” And I can see goals in this team. It’s not an infallible method, but it’s a good rule of thumb.
Michael: It’s a bit patronising to say that just by qualifying for their first major tournament, Finland have already won. It was some turn around for a country that had fallen out of the top 100 in the FIFA world rankings just four years ago. With a team of hard working players, is it just me or do they feel a bit like Iceland? I’d imagine Finland would bite your hand off now if they were offered Iceland’s Quarterfinal, mind you! They need to defend well (especially against the freeflowing Belgians) and take their chances – the latter is what separated underdogs Iceland from underdogs Albania last time out.
Jon: I’m still ambivalent about international tournaments being expanded and expanded, but on the other hand Jari Litmanen never gracing an international tournament is a pretty good argument for it. Finland were a comfortable second behind Italy in a competitive qualifying group, building their first ever qualification on their home form where only Italy took a point from them. Away though their campaign was sometimes rocky with a 4-1 hiding at fourth paced Bosnia & Herzegovina being a low point. Frankly though, that’s long forgotten: as with North Macedonia their being here is in itself a triumph. That away form suggests they might find the going tough, but in a tournament which features players tired from a compressed season their excellent organization and settled team might be a secret weapon.
Joao: Finland is one of Euro 2020 two Euro debutants.
In Euro 2016 we had 5 debutants, one reached the semifinals (Wales), another the quarterfinals (Iceland), another two the last 16 round (Northern Ireland and Slovakia), and only one was eliminated in the group stage (Albania). From this point of view, Finland’s chances in Euro 2020 don’t look so bad, do they?
They should lose every match. Their squad is the least experienced from all 24 Euro 2020 participants in CL appearances (only 21) and EL appearances (only 91)
Michael: Roberto Martinez was an odd choice, but then took Belgium to a World Cup Semifinal. His team will be exciting till they hit the brick wall. Kasper Hjulmand is a self-admitted pragmatist but don’t mistake that for defensive football. I’ve doomed us all to dull contests now, haven’t I? A former schoolteacher and defender for HJK Helsinki, Markku Kanerva referred to qualification for Finland as “the dream of our generation finally came true”. He took them from 110th in the world to Euro 2020 within 2 seasons, so discount him and Finland at your peril. Disciplinarian Stanislav Cherchesov took Russia to the World Cup quarterfinals.
Jon: Markku Kanerva took Finland’s Under 21s to the Euro Under 21 tournament in 2009: he’s developed as a coach along with these players to a degree and taking him on as coach after the debacle of the Hans Backe era is one of the smartest moves made by a European football governing body in the last decade. His eye for detail and tactical flexibility is the element that lets this Finnish team punch above their weight.
One of the quirks of the pandemic delay is Denmark’s change of manager - Åge Hareide planned to move on from the national team role after the Euros, but didn’t change his plans when the tournament was delayed. Instead we’ve got one of my favourite coaches in the tournament: philosopher king Kasper Hjulmand, who considers reflecting a national character as important as tactics. That’s not to say he’s any kind of slouch there though – unlike Belgium’s Martinez he not only seems to have Plan B but Plans C through to Z too, and probably plans we need to add new alphabets for.
Like Kasper Hjulmand, Stanislav Cherchesov likes to mix his formations up – is that not knowing his best team or the cunning of the underdog? He got the team overperforming at the last World Cup with their penalty victory over Spain, a vast upgrade over Leonid Slutsky’s disastrous Euro 2016 campaign. It comes at the cost of Russia often being a chore to watch with the attacking gameplan being the most basic Moyes at United ‘hoof it to the big man up front’.
Joao: Roberto Martínez took Belgium to 3rd place in the 2018 World Cup, their best ever result in a World Cup. Before joining Belgium he had an ordinary career in club football, his peak was taking Everton to the EL last 16 in 2014/2015. He has a strong group of players at his disposal. Let’s see if he can take Belgium to the Euro semifinals for the first time in four decades.
Kasper Hjulmand wasn’t in charge during the qualifiers. He doesn’t have any relevant achievement in club football, the peak of his career was being in the 2012/2013 CL in charge of Nordsjaelland, but he couldn’t win a single match there, the best he could do was getting one draw in six matches.
Markku Kanerva is the hero that qualified Finland to its first ever major tournament, Euro 2020. And he didn’t even need the Nations League results to qualify. Finland is the only Nations League C or D team that qualified by finishing top 2 in its Euro 2020 qualifying group. Before overseeing Finland’s senior team, he was in charge of the under-21 national team, where he also qualified them for the final tournament for the first time, in 2009. They lost every game there but qualifying under-21 Finland to a final tournament that was already the “last 8” stage was perhaps an even bigger achievement than qualifying the senior team to Euro 2020 (“last 24” stage).
Stanislav Cherchesov took Russia to the 2018 World Cup quarterfinals, Russia’s best ever World Cup result as Russia. Before being in charge of Russia national team, his biggest achievement in club football was taking Dinamo Moscow to the EL last 16 in 2014/2015.
Jon: If de Bruyne isn’t fit, then Youri Tielemans will have an immense amount of pressure on his shoulders to replace him, and his displays at Leicester, including that FA Cup winner, suggest that he’ll do well. Denmark’s key player will always be Christian Eriksen, who’s gone from the transfer list to being key in Inter breaking Juventus’s decade long stranglehold on Serie A. Aleksandr Golovin at his best combines speed and intelligence, but he’s had a rough time at Monaco over the last season. If he can find the form which lit up that home World Cup Russia might well perform better than expectations. Certainly he’s a ray of hope against Russia’s basic ‘cross it in to the big lads’ gameplan. Teemu Pukki’s one in three record at international level is outstanding for one of the relative minnows of European football: if he can nick a couple of goals in the group stage Finland might have a good shot.
Joao: Alderweireld played every minute of every game in Euro 2020 qualifiers, and he also played every minute of every game in Euro 2016. Eden Hazard was the player with more assists in Euro 2016 alongside Wales’ Ramsey, 4 each.
Christensen is an extremely successful player in club football for Chelsea, winning the UEFA Youth League in 2015, the Europa League in 2019, and now the Champions League in 2021. Will he bring these winning habits to Denmark’s national team? Yussuf Poulsen doesn’t score many goals (only 2 goals scored in 29 CL or EL matches played for Leipzig over the last four seasons), but in Denmark’s only win in the 2018 World Cup he was the goal scorer.
Uronen was an important player for Genk, playing the Champions League and even reaching the EL quarterfinals. Kamara is an important player in Glasgow Rangers’ revival, reaching the EL last 16 stage for the last two seasons.
Aleksei Miranchuk scored 3 goals in 13 CL matches for Lokomotiv Moscow and Atalanta over the last 3 seasons. Cheryshev was excellent for Russia in the 2018 World Cup, with 4 goals in 5 matches, and in Euro 2020 qualifiers he scored another 5 goals in 5 matches.
Michael: Belgium v Denmark in Denmark could be a lot of fun. Or intriguing.
Jon: Finland v Russia – and not just for historical reasons. Finland are incredibly well organised for an international team, particularly in defence. With Russia’s predictable attacking plan and, 2008 aside, neurotic underperformance in group stages, this looks like one of the best chances of an upset in the first round.
Michael: Finland - potential dark horses for success or lambs to the slaughter? I’d say dark horses but this is a tough group. They’ll need to beat Russia in Russia likely. So, yeah…
Who will qualify?
Joao: Belgium, Russia, Denmark
Jon: Hard to look past the Belgians, despite Denmark and Russia having home advantages. But let’s have some fun and go for Finland to condemn Russia to another group stage disappointment. Hard to look past the Belgians, despite Denmark and Russia having home advantages. But let’s have some fun and go for Finland to condemn Russia to another group stage disappointment.
Joao: I expect Denmark to advance as one of the best four third placed teams, because when Group B plays round 3 they’ll already know the final score in Groups A and C, and also because Finland seems to be much worse than the other three teams, which is helpful for having a good goal difference.
Michael: It’s good to see the Dutch back after missing Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup. That’s a tournament exile as long as Benzemas! Sadly their talismanic captain, Virgil van Dijk, is injured.
Jon: Arguably the biggest loss to any team is Virgil van Dijk to the Netherlands. He’s been out since October thanks to Jordan Pickford’s bafflingly unpunished clumsy challenge snapped his ACL and he’s wisely decided to sit out the summer after seeing how Johnny Castro Otto’s attempted early return from a similar injury caused a longer and more damaging relapse. Replacing van Dijk’s cocktail of athleticism, power, height, calm and charisma is like trying to climb Everest, K2 and Kilimanjaro if they were all piled on top of each other: only Superman could do it and sadly he’s not Dutch. So good luck to Stefan de Vrij there – Dutch fortunes might well depend on how he fills in.
Michael: Will this be a tournament they turn it on and look like the Cruyff world beaters (2014 World Cup, 2008 Euro) for a bit, or an inglorious early exit?
Jon: The Netherlands recent history might suggest that van Dijk’s presence isn’t that vital after all – even with him they contrived to fail to qualify for the expanded 2016 Euros and the 2018 World Cup, wasting the prime of a whole Dutch generation. There’s been an uptick with their reaching the inaugural Nations League final and avenging a last-minute home qualifying defeat by inflicting a rare and convincing competitive home defeat on Germany.
Michael: You say rare, I say “not even the only side in this group to have done that lately”!
Joao: Holland has a great history in Euros. They played for the first time in 1976 and the second time in 1980, but their results were no match for their World Cup results in the same era (beaten finalists in 1974 and 1978 World Cups). Then they missed Euro 1984, but in 1988 came back and won the tournament, and ever since then they qualified uninterruptedly for the following six editions (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012).
The first warning sign that something was wrong was their Euro 2012 result, where they lost every match. Yet the unthinkable happened afterwards, they couldn’t even qualify to Euro 2016, even though the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. Now they’re back. Are they still one of Europe’s top teams (like their all-time results suggest) or aren’t they a top team anymore (looking at recent results only)?
Holland’s manager isn’t the one that qualified them to Euro 2020, and his career in club football is basically being eliminated in group stages multiple times. However the opponents are a team that never advanced from the group stages and is currently in a losing streak of 5 Euro matches (Ukraine), another that also never advanced from the group stages and never won a single game (Austria) and finally a debutant (Macedonia). So perhaps even incompetent Frank De Boer can succeed in this group
Michael: In 2016, I suggested Austria could be the dark horses to win the entire tournament, a prediction that lasted as long as their Hapsburg derby with Hungary. This time, my views are rather lower. Especially with a defensive minded coached…
Jon: If you’ve been looking for an antidote to all that technically polished slick passing football, here’s your men. Austria are right in the modern German model of basing their game on high pressing, Franco Foda boasted in a recent interview of their allowing the fewest passes by an opponent in the opposing half.
Austria look like one of the sides who are going to regret the pandemic postponement: after winning their Nations League group they’ve won just one of their last six games (against the titanic might of the Faroe Islands) and haven’t scored in their last three.
Michael: It’s a team which struggles to get the best out of its players, and a focus on not conceding over actual scoring which can led the team into terrible difficulties – see also their 4-0 loss to Denmark a few months ago.
Jon: They’ll at least have the confidence of knowing they can beat North Macedonia, having beaten them home and away and stuck six goals past them in the process. They’ve had a Scotland like hoodoo about getting through group stages, but they’ll rarely have a better chance than this to break that.
Michael: They are in a good group, but weren’t they in 2016? Their schedule seems ominously similar too. But then Austria have never won a European Championship match in their history, and if they can’t win one against the North Macedon’s or the Ukraines (goalless in 2016, 5 straight defeats) then when can they? However, their key players seem ill at sorts (Alaba internionally), past their peak (Arnautovic, now playing in Shanghai), or struggling for fitness.
Joao: Austria only played the Euros for the first time in 2008, when they qualified automatically as co-hosts, and they couldn’t win a single game, 1 draw and 2 defeats. They played it again in 2016, this time without automatic qualification, in the first time that the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. Again they couldn’t win a single game, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Will they finally win a match in their third participation this time?
They never progressed from the group stages; they never even won a single match. However, that’s not too different from Ukraine’s history (that won a match but lost the next five), then Macedonia is a debutant, and Holland missed the last two major tournaments and is also in a losing streak of 4 Euro matches. Perhaps Austria’s chances aren’t so bad, because even if they aren’t strong, their opposition isn’t strong either.
Michael: The glass half full prognosis for Ukraine is that things went so badly last time out, surely things can only get better now? Scoring a single goal would be an improvement. Unluckily for the Ukraine they seem to have lost a number of their key players to injury so my lower expectations are considerably lower.
Jon: A first for Ukraine: topping a qualifying group. Even more impressive given the group featured the reigning European champions and that they went so unbeaten, highlighted by a 5-0 demolition of third placed Serbia. It’s tough to judge recent form as a reasonably impressive 1-1 draw in Paris has been followed by a series of rather less impressive draws until they thrashed Cyprus in their final warm-up game. They could probably do with manager Shevchenko up front, with Roman Yaremchuk’s one in three record being reasonable but hardly frightening.
Joao: Ukraine only played the Euros for the first time in 2012, qualifying as co-hosts. In 2016 they qualified again, in the first time that the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. And now they’ll be playing for the third time in a row. They won their first ever match, in 2012 against Sweden, 2-1, the two goals were scored by their current manager Shevchenko. However they lost the next five matches, without scoring a single goal. Will they be able to finally score another goal? What about winning another match? And advancing from the group stage for the first time?
Ukraine qualified to Euro 2020 undefeated, above the current European champion. Compared to that, advancing from this group should be easier.
Michael: North Macedonia have qualified for their first major tournament and just defeated Germany in Germany in a World Cup qualifier
Jon: What better way to celebrate a name change than by qualifying for your first ever international tournament?
Michael: This is unprecedented form for one of the more leftover parts of the former Yugoslavia. It also means that Goran Pandev, one of the stars of Serie A for the last decade plus, finally graces a major tournament.
Jon: I have debated long and hard with one of the co-writers of this blog about the merits of expanding qualification for major tournaments..
Michael: Ah yes, I know how long debates with Joao can last…
Jon: … , but Goran Pandev getting a shot at a tournament at the end of his career is one of the feelgood stories of these Euros.
Michael: Indeed, and just think of all the good sides who never made it to the Euros – Gary Speed’s Wales, Jari Litmanen’s Finland, that insanely talented (but underperforming internationally) Georgia side from about 20 years ago. Even with 24 teams, the likes of Norway and Serbia somehow conspired to fail to qualify – and incidentally, thanks chaps!
Jon: Of course it was Pandev who scored the goal to win their playoff against Georgia, like all the best players he’s got that ability to mould fairytales around himself.
Michael: Despite this Pandev had to go on TV and defend his own manager against FA complaints! For his part Igor Angelovski had no illusions, thanking UEFA for the Nations League playoff system they were beneficiaries of (ditto Scotland!) and is hopeful they can spring a surprise. They are the rank outsiders in the entire tournament but recent results, and group opposition, mean they can’t be discounted for a shock. Angelovski uses a more cautious 3-5-2 when playing better sides, and that led to the win over Germany and a draw against Italy in recent years.
Jon: Although they’ve not had the kindest draw, including the Austria side who beat them twice in qualifying, they’re one of the most likely of the fourth placed sides to trouble their supposed betters: their away win against Germany in qualifying is one of the most eyecatching results of recent years. They’re built around a strong five man midfield including Leeds’s Ezgan Alioiski and even at 37, Pandev is clever enough to provide a goalscoring edge against any defence.
Joao: It’s North Macedonia’s debut in a major tournament. This case is slightly different from Finland’s, because until 1992 Macedonia was a part of Yugoslavia. Some of the other new teams that were part of Yugoslavia were quicker to qualify for Euro (Croatia did so by 1996), while others haven’t done it yet (Bosnia qualified for World Cup 2014 but they haven’t qualified for the Euros yet).
They should lose every match… but they’ll be playing against a team that never won a Euro match (Austria), other that is currently in a losing streak of 5 Euro matches (Ukraine) and finally another that is currently in a losing streak of 4 Euro matches (Holland). With a path like this, perhaps getting some points isn’t unreasonable.
Michael: Franco Foda is very safety first, and has a weak reputation back home. Frank De Boer became manager last summer. Igor Angelovski became Macedonian manager in 2015. He got them to their first major tournament but his contract runs out in July! Andrei Shevchenko is Ukraine manager and national hero.
Jon: I love Igor Angelovski bringing his team to the tournament with an optimistic attitude: he’s declared that they won’t be satisfied in making up the numbers. That joie de vivre might bridge the gap with their supposed betters.
Franco Foda has his team well grooved and is unapologetic for it. They’re not a pretty side, people may not love them but he doesn’t particularly care.
The real turnaround in the Dutch fortunes came under Ronald Koeman: aside from van Dijk the other major consequence of the postponement was that Barcelona appointed him and so the Dutch turned to Franck de Boer whose history as a player in the Euros is pretty much defined by missing a pair of penalties as the Netherlands went out on spot kicks despite absolutely dominating an Italian side who played nearly 90 minutes with ten men. I can’t say I was too devastated as having Francesco Toldo in my fantasy football team helped me win the works prize fund… His club record with Crystal Palace and Atalanta hardly inspires confidence, and perhaps his game management might be costly in the later stages of the tournament.
Andriy Shevchenko is of the rare breed that turned back to football management after failing at politics. After narrowly missing out on second place during his first campaign there’s been an impressive rebound with winning their first Nations League group (although looking out of their depth in the second) as well as their qualifying. He’s a modern coach who plays the seemingly ubiquitous 4-3-3 system.
Joao: Franco Foda qualified Austria to Euro 2020. This qualification wasn’t as brilliant as Austria’s qualification to Euro 2016 with his predecessor Marcel Koller, when they won their group undefeated, but it’s a qualification nonetheless. Before becoming Austria national team manager, he reached the EL group stages twice in charge of Sturm Graz, in 2009/2010 and 2011/2012, but couldn’t go further.
Frank De Boer wasn’t in charge during the qualifiers.Before becoming Holland’s national team manager, in charge of Ajax, he was never able to progress from the CL groups in four consecutive seasons (2011/2012 to 2014/2015) and after that he couldn’t even progress from the EL group stage as well (in 2015/2016).It’s hard to understand why he became Holland’s national team manager with such a mediocre career in club football.
Igor Angelovski is the hero that qualified Macedonia to its first ever major tournament. The path was easier than usual, they “only” had to win a Nations League D group with Armenia, Gibraltar and Liechtenstein and then eliminate Kosovo in the semifinal and Georgia in the final. But being the best of UEFA’s worst 16 members (Nations League D) now is enough to get a spot in Euro 2020, and Macedonia got this spot.
Andriy Shevchenko’s only experience as a manager is in Ukraine’s national team. He couldn’t qualify them to the 2018 World Cup, but then they won Nations League B Group 1, being promoted to Nations League A, and after that they qualified to Euro 2020 undefeated, above title holder Portugal. The good news for Shevchenko is that Ukraine was so bad in Euro 2016 (0-0-3, 0 goals scored, 5 goals conceded, worst team in the entire tournament) that it will be almost impossible to be worse this time.
Michael: If Austria last more than 270 minutes at this tournament, David Alaba will have clicked. However Adrian Grbic has made a habit of late, late crucial goals for Austria so he was going to be my pick until Foda dropped him to take another defender instead. Ryan Gravenberch of Ajax. Likely anything of note for N Macedonia will pass through Pandev, but ignoring him for a moment, Eljif Elmas has been rocking it of late for Napoli.
Jon: Part-time rapper Memphis Depay carries the team’s main goalscoring threat, rejuvenated at Lyon after a nightmarish spell at Manchester United. Swings and roundabouts: where they lose van Dijk the tournament delay means Depay is recovered from his own ACL injury. He looks to be heading to Barcelona on a free transfer over the summer too: some comeback.
Oleksander Zhinchenko, familiar to British fans as a defender, is a far more creative force for his country – very Guardiola to essentially play another creative midfielder in defence. Worth keeping an eye on to watch how his skillset is as effective in midfield as it is as a creative wide defender for City.
Marcel Sabitzer. Yes we all know how good Alaba is but Sabitzer could be Austria’s Gini Wijnaldum: a player who tend to sacrifice himself for the good of his club gets the fun of providing the attacking impetus on international level. He might be even more versatile than the ex- Liverpool man, having added playing as a forward to his repertoire. Even in a tournament stuffed with outstanding midfielders, his high energy style makes him worth watching.
All eyes will be on Pandev, but it’s the Macedonian left side which promises to be fun to watch – Alioski has been excellent for both club and country, providing assists and goals from left back but it’s Eljif Elmas who’s the connoisseur’s choice – he’s almost a throwback to the era of the likes of John Robertson as he lacks pace but has the craft and trickery to make any defender’s life a nightmare.
Joao: Lainer played the Champions League for the first time this season, started in every Borussia Monchengladbach match, and they progressed from the group stages for the first time Ulmer is a FC Salzburg legend, playing every minute of every CL or EL game for the last three seasons, and will finally play a major tournament in national teams football too (he’s the second player with more appearances in EL history, 59, only behind Daniel Carriço with 61)
Aké is a big name in youth football, winning the under-17 Euros twice (2011 and 2012) and being a graduate of Chelsea’s academy. However, he doesn’t have impressive achievements in senior football yet. Perhaps that will change after Euro 2020. De Roon is an important player in the rise of Atalanta, that over the last years reached the EL last 32 (2017/2018), the CL quarters in debut season (2019/2020) and the last 16 stage in following season (2020/2021).
Ademi is an important player in Dinamo Zagreb, helping them reach the EL quarterfinals this season. Elmas doesn’t have as many CL and EL appearances as Ademi, but he is a lot younger, 18 CL and EL matches over the last 3 seasons is impressive.
Zinchenko played more for Manchester City in this CL season than in the previous 3 seasons combined. For Ukraine he’ll probably be used in a more offensive role than for his club where he is a fullback. Yaremchuk scored 4 goals in Euro 2020 qualifiers. He also scored 4 goals for Gent in 11 EL matches for Gent over the last two seasons.
Michael:Holland, Ukraine (by default)
Joao: Holland, Ukraine
Jon: Austria, Holland. This could be a genuinely tight group, with de Boer a possible managerial weak link for on paper the strongest team in the group. Let’s go for an upset here: Austria’s well organized physical side to sneak through as each side tears chunks from the other with the Netherlands sneaking through in second.
Yes, Jon’s the only one to tip Austria.
Any other random stats of interest – Goran Pandev auctioned off the shirt he won his 100th cap in, to raise money for COVID research. What a guy.
Gav: Is it true that England are the favourites for Euro 2020?
Michael: Joint with France, but with the bookies, yes.
Gav: This must be the weakest Euros in history.
Michael: It’s based on form, hosting and their front 6.
Gav: And James Ward-Prowse!
Michael: I’ve got some bad news for you, and you may need to sit down here. England have axed James Ward-Prowse.
Gav: Well, that answers the “how I am going to find the time to watch England games?” question!
Michael: Scotland 2-0 England? That’s not a prediction it’s the number of Saints starting!
Jon: England will start group favourites, coming off their best tournament performance since 1996 and having developed the pleasant habit (unfamiliar to fans from the 70s through to the 90s) of making light work of qualifying. If you’re being churlish, they ended up in the kinder side of the knockout draw in 2018, but hey they were still a bad decision from Harry Kane (to shoot rather than square to an unmarked Raheem Sterling) from a World Cup Final. Not only that but there was the minor miracle of a penalty shoot-out victory along the way. They’ve had an incredible amount of talent in the 25 years since 1996 but no-one’s quite maximized the performance of the team like Gareth Southgate did. There’s a supposed issue around their creativity against good sides too, but thirty-seven goals in eight qualifying games was second only to Belgium in the qualifying campaign. It’s perhaps the least anxiety around an England side in the Premier League era and even long before that.
Michael: After the World Cup, England come back to a major tournament as one of the actual favourites and whisper it, but they’re not that bad a side. They have three things in their favour: home, form and players. Playing 5 of 7 games at Wembley (obviously the Semifinals and Finals need them to progressive there in the first place) could make a huge difference to England, as we’ve seen time and again what home support at major tournaments have done to weaker teams. See Russia’s stunning quarterfinal in 2018. Form wise, they scored just under five goals a game in qualifying. Don’t you just hate these catenaccio style teams? Players wise, their front six is among the best in Europe, with the likes of Kane, Sterling, Sancho, Greenwood, Rashford, Foden and others to choose from. They could easily blow away weaker sides. However, the defence appears to be a major weak spot, and they will be provided a severe test when they come up against an actual strong defence, such as Spain or France.
Jon: The big issue around the squad prior to the tournament was the right back position. Kieran Tripper was crucial to the 2018 campaign with his crossing and set pieces a major source of creativity, plus he’s just won La Liga with Atletico. Kyle Walker plays there for the English league champions and Champions League finalists, Reece James plays there for the Champions League winners. And then there’s Trent Alexander-Arnold, quite possibly the best in his position in the world who’s come back from a bout of Covid and being dropped by England to finish the season majestically and play a crucial role in Liverpool’s recovery to claim a Champions League spot. Only to be injured! That’s without mentioning the more limited Aaron Wan-Bissaka too, who with that level of competition may yet switch to playing for the Democratic Republic of Congo through parentage. Alexander-Arnold’s time will almost certainly come given Trippier and Walker are the wrong side of thirty, but plenty of Liverpool fans will be fine with him getting a relatively restful summer after his illness and the slog of a season. Obvious to say but outside that right-back issue a lot will depend on Harry Kane, top scorer in both qualifying and this year’s Premier League: he’s the cutting edge of a settled system which incorporates one of Europe’s most coveted talents in Jaden Sancho but also might find a place for the precocious Jude Bellingham. Perhaps Jordan Pickford isn’t an elite goalkeeper and prone to rushes of blood (just ask Virgil van Dijk) and central defence looks vulnerable to pacy forwards, but with home advantage in their group games England look set for a deep run and that’s not something I’ve predicted for them too often.
Joao: England qualified for the first time in 1968, two years after winning the 1966 World Cup. They were 3rd placed in that Euro 1968, but in the following three participations in 1980, 1988 and 1992 were never able to progress from the group stages. From 1996 onwards the tournament was expanded to 16 teams, so qualifying became easier and progressing from the group stages too. Yet England still couldn’t progress from its group in 2000, and couldn’t even qualify to Euro 2008. In 2012 and 2016 they progressed from the group but were eliminated in the first KO stage (quarterfinals and last 16 respectively).
England defeated Croatia 4-2 in Euro 2004. They defeated Scotland 2-0 in Euro 1996.
They never played against Czech Republic in a Euro final tournament, but they were in the same group in the Euro 2020 qualifiers and England won the group
England should advance from this group. They’ve already defeated Croatia and Scotland in previous Euro group stage meetings, and they finished above Czech Republic in their Euro 2020 qualifying group
Michael: Given my biased nature to this tournament and group, let me go back in time to our 2016 review (now a semi-popular book you can buy here). In it, I noted that the Czech Republic tend to alternate tournaments. 1996: great tournament. 2000: mediocre. 2004: great tournament. 2008: mediocre. 2012: surprisingly decent. 2016: mediocre. Spot the connection. It’s KO stages/group stage exit/KO stages and repeat. And to follow that schedule, 2020 is a KO stages run. Why oh why oh why oh why did we ever leave Ohio… err, I mean this could be difficult. That said, the Czech team, despite their influx of Slavia Praha players (one less after a 10 game ban for racial abuse), is on paper one of their weakest this century. But then again, so was the 2012 variation. They lost both games in the Nations League to Scotland but still finished above them in the final table, in what the world refers to as “doing a Scotland”. They did however beat the English in qualifying (after losing 5-0 earlier) so in one off cup games, you can’t rule them out. With a high pressing game, they are likely to be competitive, but undone by far better opponents.
Jon: Like Austria, this is a side with little finesse but plenty of expertise in the modern gospels of pressing and directness: they’ll look to catch opponents out in possession and try to create chances as quickly as possible and if not, there’s always the likes of Tomas Soucek at set pieces. That might well suit them against Croatia and perhaps England but is likely to see them struggle against more defensively minded sides such as Scotland – they’ve already lost once to Scotland this season. This is a side which lacks goals and creativity and more recent losses to Wales and Italy don’t bode particularly well.
Joao: As Czechoslovakia, Czech Republic was third placed in Euro 1960, won Euro 1976 and then was third placed in Euro 1980. Already as Czech Republic, they’ve been qualifying uninterruptedly to all the Euros since 1996. Their results had an interesting pattern, they alternate advancing from the group stages with not advancing: yes in 1996, no in 2000, yes in 2004, no in 2008, yes in 2012, no in 2016. If this trend will continue in Euro 2020, this will be another “yes”.
Czech Republic got a 2-2 draw against Croatia in Euro 2016. They never played against England in a Euro final tournament, but they were in the same group in the Euro 2020 qualifiers, and although Czech Republic finished behind England, they won 2-1 at home, and this was the only match that England couldn’t win
Jaroslav Silhavy is a good manager, and there are few players left from the squad that failed in Euro 2016. And this should be another “yes” according to their results pattern.
Jon: Revenge game for you?
Michael: The Euro 2012 dive, yes. I’m still annoyed about it because it allows me to forget Craig Leviens’s infamous 6-4-0 formation.
Jon: The Croatia side which made the World Cup final in 2018 was already an aging one: four starters from that game have already retired and another six players are into their thirties. Much may depend on how Luka Modric can cope after the compressed season at the age of 35. They’re on a terrible run of late too: their only wins in their last nine games are against the relative minnows of Cyprus and Malta. Of the sides they’ve played also at these Euros they’ve drawn one and lost five. With rumblings of dissent in the camp – Dejan Lovren has talked about young players lacking respect and rumblings persist of unhappiness with the manager – Croatia look prime candidates to be upset. Which is no doubt music to Michael’s ears!
Michael: The great Croatian side are on their last legs. Several of the key performers over the last decade, internationally and in Europe, are in their 30s. Rakitic is now retired from international duty, and greats like Modric and Perisic are in the Indian summer. Is it a bridge too far, or can they have one last dance? The pessimism around Croatian fans is strong, the team have been in bad form over the last 2 years, and a lot of criticism is placed at Dalic’s door. It’s a tough group – besides bookies joint favourites England and the Czechs, there’s also the Croats bogey team, Scotland. For real. Scotland have a shockingly good record over Croatia, and its nice to have one decent side in the world who doesn’t like to play us. With 16 going through from 24 however, you have to expect talent will rise here and when they get into the knockout stage, anything can happen.
Joao: Croatia will be playing the Euro for the sixth time. Six participations in 17 editions doesn’t seem impressive, but this is actually their sixth participations in seven editions, because before 1996 they were a part of Yugoslavia. Apart from Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain, no other team qualified more times that Croatia over the last seven editions.
Even though they qualify regularly, they never went further than the quarterfinals (quarterfinalists in 1996 and 2008), so far they only reached semifinals and even the final in World Cups (1998 and 2018).
Croatia lost 2-4 against England in Euro 2004. They got a 2-2 draw against Czech Republic in Euro 2016.
Croatia won its group in Euro 2016 (above title holders Spain), then only lost in extra-time against eventual winners Portugal, and then reached the World Cup final in 2018. Advancing from this group should be easy for them, they already eliminated England in the 2018 World Cup, finished above Czech Republic in their Euro 2016 group, and Scotland is absent from major tournaments for over two decades
“OH MY FUCKING GOD!!!!!!”
Notorious atheist Michael S. Collins, Bert Kassies’s coefficient forum, 12 November 2020
It’s SCOTLAND AT THE FUCKING EUROS YA DANCER!!!!
The last Euros was a bit of a sobering time for Scots, watching every other home nation make the last sixteen while we stayed at home, victims of a 2-2 draw with Poland brought on by some guy’s selfie. The qualifying was, frankly mediocre, leaving us reliant on the Nations League playoff system, for which we had cleverly beaten Israel to a place in previously. Sods law being sods law, Israel were one of the lucky losers and they played the Scots in the Playoff semifinal. Not saying we’ve played Israel a lot of late – about two million games since 2018 at last count – but I’m half expecting a last minute country substitution in this group!
I became a football fan at the 2002 World Cup to the delight of my football mad grandfathers.
In the time since, I have buried both grandfathers, gone to uni, graduated from uni, spent 5 years recovering from a bout of ill health, got married, had my 10th wedding anniversary, become a Dad, become a regular on the school run, had my first published credit, had my first paid sale, edited a magazine, edited and owned a small press magazine, ran my own company, become a voter, voted in 11 elections (Westminster, Scottish, European and council), failed to save countless Victorian buildings, saved a few Victorian buildings, campaigned and delayed a government policy by 18 months, spoken to the Scottish First Minister about the need for more trains, and been self-isolated for a year. Also at some point I had a haircut, and was able to go teetotal for a decade…
In other words, it has been a bloody lifetime since Scotland were last at any major tournament. My football mad cousins (hello Andrew and Jamie!) weren’t even alive at the time.
The moment that Serbian penalty was saved, that Scotland had actually qualified for a major tournament, was one of those moments that half of your brain starts cheering and the other half can’t take in what has just happened. The laws of the universe since the year dot had been reversed. We had meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr Jensen… and if you don’t mind, lets just avoid atoning for a bit if we can.
Our qualification was actually a mirror opposite of the usual glorious failures – instead of playing well for large patches but coming up short in the odd crucial game, we instead sucked badly, but came up good in the odd crucial game!
Jon: Is this an illusion? I’ve had to rub my eyes and blink twice here because it’s the twenty-first century and there’s a Scottish presence at a major tournament. I’m suspecting that the excited child in the Collins household is the one in their mid-thirties and frankly that’s exactly the sort of thing football should be about. Even if they do the very Scottish thing of heroically failing to qualify for the second round at the last minute…
Michael: And so the Nations League went from rubbish idea to the greatest idea in history overnight…
Usually these tournaments are “everyone qualifies except Scotland”!
Jon: Quite right. Tradition to be maintained! Hah. I’m glad they qualified, I know the pain of screwing up qualifying all too well.
Michael: We kept finding new ways – bad management, daylight robbery (twice), losing to Georgia (twice), undone on head to head record by a selfie seeking fan…
Jon: No Joe Jordan though…
Michael: Italy in 2007 was bloody close. Alan Hutton gets fouled, free kick given to Italy, who score from the free kick they got for fouling the defender. That still pisses me off, more than any other match, really.
Jon: Given Pirlo was involved, that says something! Anyhow, as you said at the start of the pandemic, “I’d love them have a lucky campaign for once instead of playing well but being unlucky.” Your wish was granted?
Michael: And isn’t it bloody brilliant?
Joao: Scotland will be playing the Euros for the third time. The first two times were in 1992 and 1996 and they couldn’t progress from the group stages. They also played the World Cup 8 times and were never able to progress from the group stages. In Euro and World Cups combined, in 10 participations they never progressed from the group stages. Will they finally do it in Euro 2020? Scotland lost 0-2 against England in Euro 1996
The last time that they reached a major tournament was in the 1998 World Cup, so their entire Euro 2020 squad will be playing a major tournament for the first time.
Michael: Aye, Joao, so what do you think are the might Scotlands chances?
Joao: They never progressed from Euro or World Cup group stages in their previous 10 attempts. I don’t see why this time it will be any different, even with the possibility of the best four third placed teams advancing too.
Michael: I’d like to thank Joao for his contributions and wish him luck in his future endeavours… Hah, no, we can’t accept a bit of harsh reality. Hopefully proven wrong soon!
Jon: For all the COVID disruption I’ve enjoyed plenty of great moments over the last twelve months or so: Liverpool winning the title, Alisson Becker’s header against West Brom, Leicester’s inaugural FA Cup victory… and right up there with it is the night this blog’s co-writer watched Scotland qualify for the World Cup for the first time since he’s been interested in football. Rumour abounds that it even raised a small smile and a celebratory Irn Bru was downed.
Michael: iirc it was a school night so Irn Bru, and a Jack Daniels to celebrate at the weekend! After I recovered from a penalty shootout I was actually invested in!
Jon: In the interests of not spoiling Michael’s good mood I’m mildly optimistic about Scotland’s chances here: as much for a relatively kind draw as the team’s abilities: a Croatia side divided about their manager, a Czech side with the softest of underbellies and well… what’s more likely to stir Scottish blood than the sight of the English? On top of that they’ll play their first ever tournament final games at home, something the Scottish players will undoubtedly feed off. Scotland qualified the hard way: two away ties in the playoffs and two penalty shootout victories. That’s the kind of tenacity that gives them a fighting chance to break their infamous group stage hoodoo: tenth time lucky?
Typically perversely their two best players are at their best in the same left back position: Captain Andy Robertson appears to be a footballing Terminator, unstoppable even faced with Liverpool’s defensive injury bug and his relentless personality could be vital in adversity. The other left back, Kieran Tierney, remains a rare bright spot for Arsenal with his intelligent and incisive attacking play. The really big question is who might get the goals for them: John McGinn is the only player in the squad to score more than five goals and the front line is hugely inexperienced at this level: their forwards have only nineteen caps and five goals between them. Scotland’s best hope appears to be a similar strategy to that adopted by Northern Ireland in 2016 scoring first and looking to see out the game.
Michael: Zlatko Dalic’s attack minded philosophy really clicked in 2018, helping his side reach their first World Cup final. He is not very popular in Croatia though, apparently. Jaroslav Silhavy was the Czech assistant manager at Euro 2004, which they ought to have won. Gareth Southgate took over in 2016 at short notice and then took his country to the World Cup semifinals, including their first win in a penalty shootout in 22 years. Stevie Clarke got Scotland to a major tournament again. He wants to take Scotland into the knockout stages, which would surely qualify him for the right to walk on the water of the River Clyde if managed…
Joao: Zlatko Dalic took Croatia to the 2018 World Cup final. Reaching a World Cup final is always an impressive achievement, and it becomes even more impressive when it’s in charge of a national team that in the previous four World Cup editions couldn’t progress from the group stages in three and couldn’t even qualify to the other. Before becoming Croatia’s national team manager, his biggest achievement in club football was reaching the AFC Champions League final in 2016 in charge of Al Ain.
Jaroslav Silhavy qualified Czech Republic to Euro 2020. They have been qualifying uninterruptedly for all the Euros since 1996 when the tournament was expanded to 16 teams, so doing it again now that the tournament was further expanded to 24 teams isn’t particularly impressive, scandalous would have been not qualifying. Before being in charge of the Czech national team, he had some interesting results in club football, first taking Slovan Liberec to the EL last 32 in 2013/2014, and then taking Slavia Prague to the EL group stages for the first time in nearly a decade
Gareth Southgate took England to the 2018 World Cup semifinals. Despite the delusions of grandeur that England regularly has, they couldn’t reach a semifinal since Euro 1996, and in World Cups they couldn’t do it since 1990. Reaching the 2018 World Cup semifinals was an impressive achievement. Before being in charge of the England senior team, he was in charge of under-21 England, and qualified them to the 2015 Euro, where they were eliminated in the group stage. In 2015 the group stage was already the “last 8” stage, so it wasn’t as bad as it seems. Being eliminated in Euro 2020 group stages in charge of senior England though would be catastrophic, as this is still the “last 24” stage.
Steve Clarke wasn’t in charge when Scotland won Nations League C Group 1, it was still his predecessor Alex McLeish. His role in Scotland’s qualification to Euro 2020 was just in the playoffs against Israel and Serbia, where Scotland advanced twice in penalty shootouts. Before being in charge of Scotland national team, he had an unimpressive career as main manager, his biggest achievements were as Chelsea’s assistant manager during four seasons between 2004 and 2008, when they reached two CL semifinals and one final.
Jon: I’m not sure there’s a manager who’s looked as comfortable in the job in and out of the dugout as Southgate. He has a good idea of how he wants to play, even if that can’t accommodate all his best players, and has vocally and eloquently supported his players in continuing to take a knee before games. The squad isn’t disfigured by club loyalties as it has been for much of the 21st century and potential issues such as the Joe Gomez/Raheem Sterling disagreement have been quietly sorted out without being allowed to develop into something more serious. There are still obvious doubts over him given his club managerial spell was undistinguished to say the least, but he’s quietly taken to a job that had become marked by cheap tabloid outrage, blame for underperformance and controversy and projected an air of calm and authority. That may all change with any hint of underperformance of course, but a similar run for England should see Southgate elevated with the best of his predecessors save the obvious exception of Sir Alf Ramsey.
Dalic’s feat in guiding Croatia to a World Cup Final means he’s safe at the moment but with dissent in the camp and that recent drop off in form, there are questions about if he can get the best out of this aging squad. He might need a few prayers answered just to get to the last 16 here.
Frankly you wouldn’t mess with Jaroslav SIlhavy: he still looks as handy as he was during his playing career. He’s got a settled side playing the way he likes, but there’s still question marks as to whether he has the smarts or plans to change things if they’re being frustrated.
Clarke’s put his pedigree with Mourinho’s Chelsea and Dalglish’s second Liverpool side to good use: he’s a pragmatic manager who’s smart enough to experiment to find an edge (see the player to watch section here). He’s also clever enough to unapologetically play to Scottish strengths: a ton of energy, directness and pressing rather than a modern passing game that doesn’t particularly suit them.
Michael: To be honest, I thought we were passing quite well these days, but that probably shows how bad we were at it a decade ago under Levein and Burley!
Michael: Ante Rebic’s last tournament highlights: a red card against Mexico, and chipping the keeper to beat Argentina. I wonder what he plans for his hattrick. Success for the Czechs is likely to come through Tomas Soucek. As Jadon Sancho is a known quality now, watch out for Jude Bellingham. I can’t pick the entire Scotland, team can I?
Jon: No.
Michael: In that case, keep an eye on Big John McGinn, the man who is even Andrew Robertsons weans favourite player.
Joao: Livakovic was an unused sub in the Croatia national team that reached the 2018 World Cup final. Now he’ll be the starter. He helped Dinamo Zagreb reaching the EL quarterfinals this season.
Orsic was excellent for Dinamo Zagreb over the last three seasons, scoring 13 goals in 29 CL or EL matches, including memorable hat-tricks in his CL debut, and this season against Tottenham in the EL last 16 second leg, reversing a 0-2 defeat to a 3-2 win.
Boril played 31 CL or EL matches for Slavia Prague over the last four seasons, reaching the EL quarterfinals twice. Masopust is another player Slavia Prague player with important contributions to Slavia Prague’s campaigns, not as much as Boril because he only arrived from Jablonec in the middle of 2018/2019.
Mount was a UEFA Youth League winner for Chelsea in 2016, then he won the under-19 Euro for England in 2017, and this season he won the Champions League for Chelsea. He already succeeded in youth football for his club, in youth football for his national team and in senior football for his club. The only thing missing is success in senior football for the national team. Rashford has an interesting goalscoring record for Manchester United, with 18 goals scored in 51 CL or EL matches. He also scored 6 goals in 11 matches for England in Euro 2020 qualifiers (including Nations League). He couldn’t score yet for England at major tournaments, even though he already played 8 times in Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup combined. Let’s see if he’ll finally do it in Euro 2020.
Robertson played in 30 of Liverpool’s 31 CL matches over the last 3 seasons. Euro 2020 will be an interesting challenge for him because for Scotland his teammates aren’t as good as his Liverpool teammates, so there may be an extra burden on his shoulders. Forrest scored a hat-trick in the Nations League Group C last match, a 3-2 win against Israel, and another two in a 4-0 win against Albania three days earlier. He was the second top scorer in Nations League C, only behind Serbia’s Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Jon: Jaden Sancho. As recent political events have proved, the English have tended to be insular with relatively few players making any kind of impact abroad. Sancho is an exception and with his decision to swap Manchester City’s youth system for the Dortmund first team, a confident one. You can see that in his play, marrying raw pace with the ability to fool defenders into making bad decisions. It’s likely to be the first time many English fans and casuals have seen him play – potentially, with all those home games and more to come if they progress into the knockout stages, Sancho could make the kind of name for himself that Paul Gascoigne made in 1990.
Leverkeusen’s Patrik Schick looks to be the key man, averaging a smidgeon under a goal every other game – in a side not otherwise overburdened with goalscorers he’s key to Czech hopes of progressing from the group, let alone further.
As a Villa fan my dad’s not that fazed about losing Jack Grealish this summer: he’s happier keeping John McGinn. McGinn’s comeback from injury after the pandemic break last season was the decisive factor in Villa’s survival. He’s in a relatively rich vein of goalscoring form too: three goals in recent games after moving to a role supporting the forwards. He’s never going to be mistaken for one of Barcelona’s passing carousel of midfielders, but the energy and threat he provides could trouble the relatively weak English and Czech defences. Nikola Vlasic was the key to Croatia’s qualification, scoring or assisting at crucial times. He’s recovered from a poor spell at Everton to provide the energy and penetration Croatia can often lack.
Michael: Obvious game is obvious, but Croatia/Scotland might be more revealing. Can Croatia please keep their awful record against Scotland going for a bit longer, ta?
Jon: Scotland v Czech Republic. After a twenty-three year absence Scotland return with their first ever home game in a tournament. Even with COVID restrictions the atmosphere promises to be very special. Add to that the spice of a grudge game after a highly dubious penalty (read: clear and obvious dive) ended Scotland’s chances of qualifying for Euro 2012 and this could be spicy, even if it’s unlikely to be high scoring. Oh, and there’s the little matter of England at Wembley after that.
Michael: Will England actually win their opening Euro match for this first time ever? – In front of a home crowd, surely. (I bet folk said that at Euro 96 too…)
Michael: England, Croatia, Czech Republic
Joao: Croatia, England, Czech Republic
Jon: The randomness of the draw has been kind here: a lot of history between the teams (that World Cup semi-final, Scotland’s grudges against England and the Czechs) means that behind England this looks like one of the more unpredictable groups with three flawed teams behind them. I fancy the Czechs are a little too predictable and the Croatians have enough talent to sneak though. The question is have Scotland enough to qualify as one of the four best third place teams? In solidarity with fellow Celts I’m going to be brave here and say they’ve got enough to see them through.
Michael: Now my Group A prediction looks like it was made by a shit! Hey, Jon, see if Croatia want to do well, do you know what they’ll need?
Jon: I’ll regret this, but what?
Michael: A Dalic Master Plan!
Jon: Sigh.
Michael: If they do well, it can be the Power of the Dalic. Win the tournament and it’ll surely be Day of the Dalic, and the Destiny of the Dalic. A comeback from behind would be Resurrection of the Dalic. Hopefully they won’t do badly and folk will be shouting Death to the Dalic.
Jon: Any more of these and it’ll be Remembrance for the Michael.
Michael: Fair enough. After all, it was 2018 that was Genesis of the Dalic. (Also, the pronunciation isn’t that badly off for this joke to work as a pun, rather than ethnocentrism…hopefully.)
Joao: Why will this time be any different?
Michael: Well, apart from the fact that 23 years is an ice age in football so events from the 80s and 90s may not impact a team of 2021, and that only two of those had 3rd place qualifiers... There's no illusion that bottom spot is the most likely place for the Scots. (Look at the recent Womens World Cup, screwing up is in our DNA!) But if we were to sit around worrying about it there was no point qualifying in the first place. In my book, even being the worst team at the tournament is better than never getting there in the first place. And every game starts at 0-0 so there's always time to dream before reality kicks you!
Joao: I agree with you. Even if Scotland (or anyone else) loses every game in Euro 2020, that's better than not even qualifying.
Michael: Which Jon has told me not to call The Group of Sleep…
Michael: Before their recent double header against minnows Georgia and Kosovo, Spain were in a bad run of form by their standards, with 1 win in 5 games. Of course that one win was 6-0 over Germany, but a defeat to Ukraine and draw at home to Greece sprung alarm bells that Luis Enrique has been trying to dissuade. Then came their attempt to win friends and influence folk by only taking 24 people to a 26 man squad event, and leaving out every Real Madrid player. Spain have the squad to rip through the tournament, and the recent history of trophies to back it up, but they seem so unpredictable at the moment.
Jon: Oddly for a major country, Spain’s squad has more players based in England than in their home nation: an indicator of how the Spanish ideal of football is so influential and, of course, Pep Guardiola directly infusing his mostly conquering Manchester City side with personnel from his home nation. It’s also telling how the balance of power has shifted from Spain that Real provide no players and Barca only three, a far cry from the squads that won three consecutive international tournaments. Spain have returned to their pre-2008 levels of underachievement: they haven’t won a knockout game since Robin van Persie’s outrageous header in Salvador signaled the end of their dominant era. Rodri, Koke and Thiago are as good as any midfield in the tournament and should be more than enough to control the games in the group phase and see Spain through easily. Later in the tournament though Laporte’s form for Manchester City may be a minor concern, as may the question of who’s going to score the goals.
Joao: Spain was almost invulnerable in 2008-2010-2012, winning Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012. That supremacy no longer exists, and they had a lot of trouble in the last three major tournaments (eliminated in the 2014 World Cup group stage, eliminated in Euro 2016 last 16 by Italy, and eliminated in the 2018 World Cup by Russia). Spain defeated Sweden 2-1 in Euro 2008. They also finished above Sweden in their Euro 2020 qualifying group, with a 3-0 home win and an away 1-1 draw.
Spain was eliminated in Euro group stage thrice (1980, 1988 and 2004), but I don’t see it happening again here. Luis Enrique’s imbecile decision to select 24 players instead of 26 may doom him, but it’s more likely to happen in a later stage when suspensions and injuries may make his group even shorter.
Michael: Marek Hamsik made his debut for Slovakia and Napoli in 2007. His abilities took Slovakia to a World Cup last 16 spot, and a Euro 2016 last 16 spot. Now, he has dragged a team of meagre talents to another major tournament, but another knockout stage appearance may be a bridge too far. An aging side – 10 of the squad are the wrong side of 30 – has them as one of the weaker sides on paper. But then, if you can count on prior history, its for Slovakia to spring that one big result they need on the big stage. They beat Italy 3-2 in 2010, and Russia 2-1 in 2016. Perhaps facing a potentially already qualified Spain in the last game could help? Slovakia play 4-1-4-1, and they don’t feel like they’d be a surprise. But if they did, it wouldn’t be one.
Jon: I really want to go into these previews providing a drop or two of hope: why teams might progress. Unfortunately it’s tough to see anything like that for Slovakia, who sneaked past a poor Ireland team in the playoffs and who are stuck in a group with three teams who are fairly clearly a class above them. They’re not as good as last time: Marek Hamsik is another five years older and towards the end of the twilight of his career: he’s unlikely to illuminate the tournament. The big question: who scores the goals? None of their forwards are overly prolific and in this group chances are likely to be at a premium.
Joao: Slovakia will only be playing the Euros for the second time, the first was in Euro 2016. It’s easier to qualify since 2016, because the tournament was expanded to 24 teams. But Euro 2016 wasn’t their first major tournament, they’ve also qualified to the 2010 World Cup. And interestingly, in both occasions they progressed from the group stages. Can they do it again?
On one hand, they were “never” eliminated in Euro and World Cup group stages whenever they participated. On the other hand, unlike Slovakia, their group opponents were all good enough to be in the 2018 World Cup, and were all good enough to qualify to Euro 2020 by finishing top 2 in their qualifying groups
Michael: Threats of this turning into the Zlatan Show once again fell by the wayside when Ibrahimovic was injured in a Milan match. Sweden as a team defied expectations by dumping Holland, Italy and Germany on their way to the World Cup quarterfinals. Yet in Kulusevski they might have one of the most exciting newcomers and in Forsberg they can win a match out of nothing. Again, half the squad are the wrong side of 30, which may provide issues in quickfire tournament action, and a loss to Spain in their opener could see them on the backfoot from the off.
Jon: Hello again Sweden, who’d make Mike Bassett proud with their insistence on four four fecking two.
Some things even Zlatan can’t overcome: after being initially recalled and playing in World Cup qualifiers he was ruled out of the tournament with a knee injury. It’ll be a duller tournament without his presence and his absence disrupts Sweden’s plans somewhat: Daniel Kulusevski has to pick up awho lot of the creative slack in central areas in his absence. It’s a chance for Sweden to move on from being a subplot in Zlatan: The Movie and although there’ll be less drama we might well see the a younger and more interesting Swedish side announce themselves. Even if they remain in the tactical straitjacket of the 70s and 80s. It might well be to their advantage that three squad members, Kristoffer Olsson, Viktor Claesen and Mattias Berg play together at Krasnodar: these relationships built up over time can be a quiet advantage in a time when building rapport can be difficult in international football.
Joao: Sweden’s best ever Euro campaign was their first: in 1992 as hosts they reached the semifinals. Then they missed Euro 1996, and after that they qualified to every edition, but only progressed from the group stages once, in 2004, when they reached the quarterfinals.
In World Cups they have better results: before playing their first ever Euro in 1992, they already had one second place (1958), one third place (1950) and one fourth place (1938) in their World Cups history, and afterwards just like in the Euros they also reached the World Cup semis once (1994) and quarters once (2018), but unlike the Euros, in their other World Cup participations they also progressed from the group stages (in 2002 and 2006).
Sweden lost 1-2 against Spain in Euro 2008, and also finished behind Spain in their Euro 2020 qualifying group 10 players in Sweden’s Euro 2020 squad will be participating in a major tournament for the first time: Danielson, Bengtsson, Sema, Kulusevski, Kristoffer Olsson, Cajuste, Svanberg, Quaison, Jordan Larsson and Isak.
Sweden couldn’t progress from the group stages in the last three Euro editions. However they also couldn’t qualify to the previous two World Cups, and with Janne Andersson in charge they qualified to the 2018 World Cup and reached the quarterfinals
Michael: Poland must have taken all the twitter accusations of dull football from the last two tournaments to heart, as they have just signed Paulo Sousa as manager. A man who wouldn’t know a clean-sheet if Helenio Herrera’s ghost was offering free lessons. His predecessor in the role, Jerzy Brzeczek, had received the dreaded vote of confidence weeks earlier! The Polish FA wanted more exciting football, and Brzeczek’s inability to forge a partnership with Lewandowski proved fatal. Sousa is not very popular with the Polish press, having no international experience, dropping media favourites and lacking any pragmatic bone in his body. Poland have had potential stars in their teams of late: Zielinski and Milik to name but two, but an overly defensive system has failed to get the best out of them. They made a Quarterfinal last time out with few real memories of note. You might recall them better this time, when they crash out earlier…
Joao: Poland only qualified for the Euros for the first time in 2008, but they’ve never missed them ever since then. In 2012 they were automatically qualified as co-hosts, and ever since 2016 the number of teams increased to 24 so qualifying became easier.
They progressed immensely in Euro 2016 compared to the previous two participations: they finally won a match, they finally advanced from the group stages, they reached the quarterfinals, and they were only eliminated in a penalty shootout.
Poland’s Euro 2020 squad has 12 players that won’t be debutants at major tournaments: Szczesny, Fabianski, Glik, Bednarek, Bereszynski, Rybus, Linetty, Krychowiak, Zielinski, Lewandowski, Milik and Kownacki. Paulo Sousa is a great manager, and in Euro 2016 Poland finally won matches and progressed from the group stages, so doing it in Euro 2020 wouldn’t be unprecedented
Jon: Were it not for CONMEBOL’s decision to shift the COVID threatened Copa America from a badly hit Argentina to erm… Bolsonaro’s badly hit Brazil, the worst decision of the yer by any football association would be where to shift the games originally scheduled for Dublin. Where’s the worst place you could shift Poland games to? How about a country they’ve got a long and antagonistic history with and whose last meeting at a major tournament resulted in 183 arrests after a provocative parade by Russian fans through the streets of Warsaw? Forgivable if that was decades back, but it was only at the 2012 Euros. The pandemic obviously means that the threat will be diffused with fewer fans allowed to travel, but to even raise the spectre of it in the current circumstances seems foolhardy at best.
Seven clean sheets in qualifying saw them ease through, but even with the current best striker in world football Robert Lewandowski (who would probably be the reigning Balon d’Or had it not been cancelled) they weren’t particularly prolific. That’s a situation that’s been exacerbated by Arkadiusz Milik’s knee injury in the last warm up game causing him to miss the tournament. It might be an opportunity for Karol Swiderski to stake a claim for a place given Milik has been largely unimpressive in recent years. Swiderski is coming off an impressive season with PAOK in Greece. Thing is, Poland are one of the toughest side to predict from history simply because of their manager…
Jon: Jerzy Brzeczek was unceremoniously booted earlier this year, in large part because of sever disagreements with Lewandowski and well, you can’t simply shift disgruntled players on in international football. Sousa’s overseen an entertaining 3-3 draw with Hungary already and isn’t exactly renowned for prioritizing defence – in a recent interview with David Conn he spoke of needing to ‘feed the strikers’. Add to that the players perhaps not quite being settled into his system and there’s plenty of potential for Poland games to be among the most entertaining of the group stages.
Pavel Hapal was unceremoniously booted out after a series of poor results toward the so ther should end of qualifying and assistant Štefan Tarkovič took over to guide them through the playoff, so there should at least be a degree of consistency to the side.
Luis Enrique’s appointment is a sensible move: after all he evolved Guardiola’s complex passing side after Xavi’s departure and Iniesta reaching the end of his career. He added width to Barca’s dominance of the midfield and his likely side look well-suited to help the national side move on too, with a potentially deadly combination of Jordi Alba and Ferran Torres on the left flank.
Has Jamie Andersson got any authority left after recalling Zlatan, who was typically forthright about him? Tactically he’s fairly straightforward and obviously the question is how the team reacts to Zlatan’s recall and now his absence.
Michael: Former Swansea City and Fiorentina manager Paulo Sousa believes in himself, which on recent events is probably just as well someone does. Stefan Tarkovic only became manager of Slovakia for their playoff final against Northern Ireland, but had been assistant manager at Euro 2016. Since the Barceroma experiment, Luis Enrique has won the league and European Cup with Barcelona. This is his second spell in charge of Spain after family tragedy. Janne Andersson took Sweden to the World Cup quarterfinals.
Joao: Janne Andersson arrived to Sweden national team after Euro 2016, and he was very successful ever since then, first qualifying to the 2018 World Cup (Sweden missed the previous two editions), then reaching the 2018 World Cup quarterfinals (Sweden’s best result since the 1994 when they reached the semifinals), then winning its Nations League B group being promoted to League A, and finally qualifying to Euro 2020.
These are excellent results. He was an unknown manager before joining Sweden national team, but now he has multiple achievements, and let’s see if he can get some more, like qualifying Sweden from Euro group stages for the first time since Euro 2004.
Luis Enrique arrived to Spain national team after the 2018 World Cup and although he had a good start in the first two Nations League matches with two wins against England and Croatia, he lost the following two matches and couldn’t qualify to the next stage. Then Euro 2020 qualifiers started, he was only in charge for the first match, then he left and Robert Moreno was in charge for the remaining qualifying games, and he only came back after the qualifiers were over.
Before joining Spain, his greatest achievement in club football was winning the 2014/2015 Champions League in charge of Barcelona. In 2011/2012 though, in charge of Roma, he couldn’t even reach the EL group stages, being eliminated in the qualifiers by Slovan Bratislava.
His Euro 2020 squad was by far the most controversial from all the Euro 2020 participants, with the decision to only have 24 players instead of 26!
Paulo Sousa wasn’t in charge during the qualifiers.
He is in charge of a national team for the first time in his career, but he had multiple interesting results in club football: In 2012/2013 he qualified Videoton to the EL group stage for the first time, in the following season he reached the EL last 32 in charge of Maccabi Tel-Aviv, then in 2014/2015 he reached the CL last 16 in charge of Basel, then in the following two seasons he reached the EL last 32 twice in charge of Fiorentina, then he went to Tianjin Quanjian in China where he reached the AFC Champions League quarterfinals in 2018.
Being successful in so many different countries (Hungary, Israel, Switzerland, Italy, China) is remarkable, and we’ll see if he’ll also continue to be successful in national team football.
Jon: Others might be watching Ferran Torres or even whether Gerard Moreno can provide the goals but frankly I’ll be doing what I’ve been doing for Liverpool games for much of the season and watching Thiago Alcantra. He might not be the last of Barca’s great passers of the ball, but he’s the last of that generation produced at La Masia that began with Xavi and Iniesta: he might be technically the best player at these championships and watching to see how he can control games and play the killer ball that catches defences out because he’s spotted a gap that’s about to open up is a free masterclass.
Emil Forsberg. Forsberg’s creativity from wide areas could be crucial to Sweden’s chances of going through, with his knack of finding space key to breaking down well organized defences. Given the unsettled nature of the teams in this group he, along with Dejan Kulusevski, could create havoc for Aleksander Isak to take advantage of. These three could well be sneakily good picks for any fantasy team.
Milan SKriniar. Pound for pound the best player in the squad, one of those Dejan Lovren type defenders who likes to dominate opponents and isn’t shy about putting in tackles. I’d love to nominate an attacker but frankly I barely foresee Slovakia making it out of their own half.
Sometimes you have to take the obvious route: all eyes will be on Lewandowski after a career best season which included breaking Gerd Muller’s longstanding Bundesliga scoring record for goals in a season. It’ll be worth watching the player picked to partner him up front though: it’s going to be tough to build a reliable partnership in so short a time before the tournament, particularly in a role which demands a lack of ego.
Joao: Skriniar played in 15 of Inter’s 18 CL matches over the last three seasons. Inter is not as good as it used to be, but he’s still playing regularly at a higher level than any of his Slovakian teammates.
Krychowiak won two Europa Leagues for Sevilla in 2015 and 2016, and ever since then played every minute of every Poland’s match in Euro 2016, again in the 2018 World Cup, and he remains an essential member in Poland’s squad.
Milik has a good goalscoring record in club football, with 14 goals in 36 CL or EL matches, however for Poland his goalscoring record isn’t as good. Let’s see if that will change in Euro 2016.
Sebastian Larsson will be playing his fourth Euro for Sweden. His first was in 2008 and Henrik Larsson was his teammate, and now 13 years later his teammate Jordan Larsson is Henrik’s son!
Kristoffer Olsson played 16 CL or EL matches for Krasnodar over the last three seasons, and now he’ll finally play a major tournament for Sweden
Poland v Sweden will tell us who goes through alongside Spain.
Is this the Group of Sleep? (ie the weakest group on paper) – On paper it is the weakest group, but that doesn’t always turn out so in reality. Although if we can get excitement and twists from Poland and the Slovak side now, it’ll be evidence of miracles.
Joao: Spain, Poland, Sweden
Jon: Spain, though they may labour to break down Sweden and the group might be tighter than thought. Paulo Sousa’s appointment portends entertainment so I’m hoping they’ll accompany Spain through and Sweden should have enough talent to go through in third at worst. I’m foreseeing nul points for Slovakia though.
Michael: Sweden managed a unique Euros achievement in 2012: They took the lead in all 3 group stage matches, and still went out in the first round. Ignoble achievement, admittedly. Scotland have done it twice at the World Cup (1978, 1982) because of course we bloody have.
Jon: The reigning Euro and Nations League champions. The reigning World Cup champions. The 2014 World Cup champions in Jogi Low’s farewell tour. And erm… Hungary. While inevitability is a terrible concept that lets a lot of specious historical analysis get handwaved through, Hungary’s group stage exit seems pretty much as inevitable as it gets.
Michael: On paper, the World champions have the best squad in the tournament, and now they’ve added Benzema after a 7 year exile to their firepower. The omens are in their favour too, with Deschamps looking to add the Euros to the World Cup just as he did twenty years previously. Just as well they are in the group of death, so we can pretend there’s a facsimile of doubt about their 2020 win for a week or so. If Hell froze over when Benzema returned to the France squad, the Devil made personal TV appearances when Adrien Rabiot – who refused a spot on the World Cup standby list – returned last year. Deschamps, so often known as the man who could keep a grudge better than my gran, has belatedly turned peacemaker, and with no distractions in the squad, they could be unbeatable. Certainly they are the team in Europe to beat after recent tournaments, and with the heartbreak in the last Euro final, they have a bone of contention to defeat.
Jon: The cheapest and easiest thing to do would be to paint this group as the aging Portuguese master against his man everyone thinks will be his successor, Kylian Mbappe. And you’ll no doubt read plenty of those takes over the next few weeks as it’s the easy, juicy angle. It’s simpler to write about individuals, particularly goalscorers, than teams. Much more interesting is the return to the French team of Karim Benzema, who accused Didier Deschamps of pandering to France’s racist element by dropping him in the wake of the highly unsavoury Zahia affair. Benzema’s unselfish work at Madrid made Ronaldo’s life infinitely easier and if he starts he’ll offer everything Olivier Giroud does but adding a more clinical goalscoring edge. It’d add to Deschamps’s embarrassments of riches: the only slight worries might be the indifferent club form of the likes of Lloris, Kante and international tournament specialist Griezmann.
Joao: France participated in the first Euro in 1960, but then missed the following 5 editions, and only qualified again in 1984, automatically as hosts. They won that tournament, then missed Euro 1988, and then ever since 1992 they have been qualifying uninterruptedly.
They’re the current World Champions, and the last time that they were World Champions in 1998, they also won the next Euro edition in 2000. Will they do it again?
France defeated Germany 2-0 in Euro 2016 semifinal. They lost 0-1 against Portugal in Euro 2016 final, but they prevailed in their previous two meetings, winning 2-1 in Euro 2020 semifinal and before 3-2 in Euro 1984 semifinal.
Ever since Didier Deschamps is in charge, France won its 2014 World Cup group with 7 points, won its Euro 2016 group with 7 points, and won its 2018 World Cup group with 7 ponts. The similarities don’t end there, not only he always got 7 points, he always won the first two games and then got a 0-0 draw in the third.
Michael: Germany had their worst World Cup since Hitler in 2018, with defeats to Mexico and South Korea seeing them exit in the group stage. Mediocre results have been infrequent since (they were woeful in the Nations League and just lost at home to North Macedonia in a World Cup qualifier) and they have gone out in the group stages at the Euros before. That said, with 3 teams likely going through from this group, surely the Germans are too good to make it 2 eliminations on the bounce? Surely. Surely? A 6-0 loss in Spain last November is the sort of result that could give people nightmares and if Germany showed up in that frame of mind, France and Portugal could tear them to pieces.
Jon: The end of an era: farewell then Jogi Low. And upon seeing the draw he might well have the same question that Neil Tennant once asked of Dusty Springfield: what have I done to deserve this? The desire to make an impressive exit means he’s backtracked on his previous reluctance to pick older players and recalled Mats Hummels and Thomas Muller: easier to do that when the problems of the future are for Hansi Flick to resolve. Hummels’s experience might well help solve Germany’s recent defensive issues. An interesting subplot is in how he shuffles his forward line: how does the recalled Muller it in? Have Timo Werner’s struggles at Chelsea in an unfamiliar role affected his confidence? And can Serge Gnabry maintain his three goals in four record? It’s odd that in an era when the last three Champions Leagues have been won by German coaches that their national coach seems uncertain of his best team and how to play – perhaps it’s a consequence of the game starting to move past Low. Their fate may well depend on whether Low’s team suddenly clicks in a way it hasn’t really done since the high point of that World Cup win.
Joao: Germany is the best team in Euros history. In 12 participations they were winners thrice, beaten finalists thrice, semifinalists thrice, and eliminated in the group stages thrice.They will be playing the Euros for the 13th consecutive edition, no other team has been doing it for longer.
Germany lost 0-2 against France in Euro 2016 semifinals. They played against Portugal four times in the Euros history with all kinds of results: 0-0 draw in Euro 1984, 0-3 defeat in Euro 2000, 3-2 win in Euro 2018, and 1-0 win in Euro 2012.
Germany is the best team in Euros history, but they’re in a group with the current World Champion (France), the current European Champion (Portugal), and another team that won its group in Euro 2016 (Hungary). Advancing from this group seems a difficult task
Michael: Portugal arrive at the Euros with, frankly, a far better squad than the one that won in 2016. Does that mean going two for two? We’ll see. They have only lost 4 games in the last 56 internationals, a fantastic record, but there is the feeling the team is too attack minded for Fernando Santos. Indeed, the great coach is 66 now, so this may be one of his last major tournaments as manager. There might be better teams out there (stress on might) but they’ll have to beat Portugal to win the Euros.
Jon: We’re into the last, decadent stages of Cristiano Ronaldo’s career. Not so much Brando in The Godfather as, at best, Brando’s ludicrously well-paid cameo in Superman. Having been someone who fairly piously believes that art – and football is an art form – is about communal joy and generosity, I’ve never been a fan of someone who’s determined to remind us of every drop of sweat he’s shed to get to the top and demand we admire him for it. The living embodiment of the TV show Fame in other words, but with the faux-classical Champions League theme as a soundtrack rather than Irene Cara’s absolute banger. All a bit Stakhanov/neoliberal dream for my tastes, though it’d be entirely wrong not to acknowledge one of the great careers, even if at times he’s made a habit of overshadowing the far worthier efforts of others. And yes, the part of me that enjoys schadenfreude is hoping for this possible last act to be his Island of Doctor Moreau. As I’ve just proven, pretty much the only story anyone will be writing about Portugal will be Ronaldo related. Shame because they’re a far more rounded team than last time, as their Nations League victory proved – Dias, Cancelo, Fernandes, Moutinho, Bernardo and Jota have thrived in England. And then there’s Joao Felix: as a collection of attackers it might be the tournament’s best. I keep predicting them to go out in the group stages purely out of a belief in karma but I don’t see that this time – though their game against France is one of the most appetizing fixtures, Germany are a fallible side and Portugal have a habit of winning those crunch qualification games.
Joao: Portugal will be playing the Euros for the eighth time, seventh in a row. In the first six participations they had good results (beaten finalist once, semifinalist thrice and quarterfinalist twice) but sooner or later they were eliminated. In Euro 2016 they finally became European Champions. And in 2019 they won the Nations League too.
Portugal got a 3-3 draw against Hungary in Euro 2016. Against Germany they got a 0-0 draw in Euro 1984, a 3-0 win in Euro 2000, a 2-3 defeat in Euro 2008 and a 0-1 defeat in Euro 2012. And against France they got a 2-3 defeat in Euro 1984, a 1-2 defeat in Euro 2000 and a 1-0 win in Euro 2016.
10 players in Portugal’s Euro 2020 squad will be participating in a major tournament for the first time: Rui Silva, Nélson Semedo, João Cancelo, João Palhinha, Nuno Mendes, Rúben Neves, Sérgio Oliveira, Pote, João Félix and Diogo Jota.
Portugal was never eliminated in Euro group stage. I don’t see it happening now, not even in a group with the team that won Portugal’s group in Euro 2016 (Hungary), the best team in Euros history (Germany) and the current World Champion (France)
Michael: Quite frankly, Hungary have absolutely nothing to lose in this group. FourFourTwo have them going out on three defeats, and that might be the expected result, but with two home games, this becomes a group of Cup ties from the off. In their qualifying group (they made it via the Nations League playoffs), Hungary beat Croatia and Wales at home. Then finished 4th. But the former suggests on their day, they can be a handful, as does their draw with Portugal last time out. (And their defeat to Belgium might also show what happens when someone does their homework against the team!) An unfortunate bit of luck saw their young talent Dominik Szoboszlai miss the tournament through injury.
Jon: This isn’t so much the short straw as a straw reduced to a length measured in picometres. Smaller even than the world’s tiniest violin which plays whenever unfortunate mishaps happen to Piers Morgan or Sam Allardyce. The one wild card factor is home advantage against France and Portugal. A hard task is made much more difficult with their best attacking talent for many years, Domink Szoboszlai, being out through injury – they simply don’t carry anything like as potent a goalscoring threat in his absence. Perhaps their best hope is keep things tight and hope that their visitors become anxious.
Joao: Hungary will be playing the Euros for the fourth time. They were third placed in 1964, fourth placed in 1972, and reached the last 16 in 2016. Hungary got a 3-3 draw against Portugal in Euro 2016. They may have the strongest 3 teams in their group, so even if they were the 4th best team they would be in serious trouble. And they’re far from being the fourth best team… Perhaps counting from the bottom they’re 4th.
Michael: Didier Deschamps became manager in 2012, when French football was a byword for infighting and squabbles and has taken them to two finals in the last five years. You might think he underplays his hand, but you can’t argue with his results so far. Joachim Low’s Plan’s A through Z involve attacking football, and if this has seen him caught out at 5 tournaments from 6 so far, that 6th was a World Cup win. Marco Rossi won Honved their first league title in two decades and now has the task of steering the Hungarians through the Group of Annihilation. The internal battle in Fernando Santos’s mind between conservative football and unleashing the dogs of war will be fascinating.
Joao: Didier Deschamps is a brilliant manager. He was successful multiple times during his career, first taking Monaco to the 2003/2004 Champions League final, then taking Marseille to the 2011/2012 CL quarterfinals. After that he arrived to France national team, and they reached the 2014 World Cup quarters (in the previous edition they couldn’t progress from the group stage and couldn’t even win a single game), then Euro 2016 final (in the previous edition they couldn’t go further than the quarter finals).
And after quarter finals and lost finals in national team and club football, in the 2018 World Cup he finally won!
Now his task is much harder, he is no longer in charge of an unsuccessful group, so expectations will be higher. Vicente Del Bosque won the 2010 World Cup for Spain and then he won Euro 2012 too. Can Deschamps do the “same” for France, winning Euro 2020 after winning the 2018 World Cup?
Joachim Low has been in charge of Germany for a long time. His first major tournament was Euro 2008, where Germany reached the final. Then he was 2010 World Cup semifinalist and Euro 2012 semifinalist. The 2014 World Cup was his most successful tournament, they won it. Then in Euro 2016 they were again semifinalists. And although Low won the Confederations Cup in 2017, the 2018 World Cup was the lowest point, Germany couldn’t progress from the group stage. Then they were also relegated from Nations League A, before an expansion saved Germany from that humiliation.
He is an excellent manager and he’s a victim of his own success, after five tournaments in a row reaching at least the semifinals, not progressing from the groups once was shocking. Had the results in the previous decade not been so great then the 2018 World Cup result would have been “normal”.
Marco Rossi qualified Hungary to Euro 2020, and that was the biggest achievement in his career.
Before being in charge of Hungary’s national team, he was Honvéd’s manager, but he was never able to go further than the second qualifying round in the EL qualifiers.
Fernando Santos had great results in national team football for nearly one decade. In charge of Greece, he reached Euro 2012 quarter finals (an improvement compared to Greece in Euro 2008 that lost every game), and then the 2014 World Cup last 16 (first time ever that Greece progressed from the group stage in a World Cup). Then in charge of Portugal he won Euro 2016, and reached the 2018 World Cup last 16 (another improvement compared to 2014 World Cup where Portugal couldn’t progress from the group stage). And he won the Nations League in 2019 too.
Four tournaments in a row doing better than his predecessor did in the same tournament. Can he do it for a fifth time? This time “doing better” would have to be winning Euro 2020, with better results than in Euro 2016 (where Portugal advanced from the group stage with 3 draws and then in the KO stages had to go to extra-time thrice and in one of them also to a penalty shootout)
Michael: There’s a young chap called Kylian Mbappe who plays for France. Dunno if you’ve heard of him. Florian Wirtz was going to be my option here but he’s at the under21s tournament instead! Jamal Musiala is an 18 year old who has really broken through in midfield for Bayern this season, so if he gets on the pitch he is one to watch. Pedro Goncalves makes the Portuguese squad after a brilliant scoring season.
Joao: Bruno Fernandes scored 24 goals in 45 CL or EL matches for Sporting and Manchester United over the last four seasons. Let’s see if he can be as brilliant in national teams football as he is in club football. Diogo Jota is another player with impressive goalscoring record, with 6 goals in 8 EL matches for Wolverhampton last season and 4 goals in 9 CL matches for Liverpool this season.
Nego was an under-19 European champion for France in 2010, and now he’ll be playing the senior Euro for Hungary. He only played 26 minutes in the qualifiers, but it was enough to score Hungary’s equalizer in the final playoff against Iceland.
Orban scored 4 goals for Hungary in Euro 2020 qualifiers (including Nations League), and as a defender that’s not even his main task. He played in 24 CL or EL matches for Leipzig over the last four seasons
Gnabry was Germany’s top scorer in Euro 2020 qualifiers, with 8 goals in 9 matches (including Nations League). He already succeeded in club football (Champions League winner for Bayern), he already succeeded for the national team in youth football (under-21 European champion), the only thing missing in his career is success for the senior national team.
Muller has a fantastic goalscoring record for Germany in World Cups (10 goals in 16 matches), he also has a good goalscoring record for Bayern in the CL (48 goals in 124 matches). The “stain” on his career is his goalscoring record for Germany in Euros, where in 11 matches he couldn’t score a single goal. Will he finally score in Euro 2020?
Benzema is the fourth all-time top scorer in CL history, with 71 goals in 130 appearances. He also won the CL 4 times for Real Madrid, but he never won anything for France yet, and although he already played 6 matches in two Euro editions, he couldn’t score a single goal.
Ben Yedder had an impressive goalscoring record for Sevilla in CL and EL, with 18 goals in 22 CL or EL matches. Let’s see if he’ll be able to impress playing for the national team too.
Jon: Let’s be honest, who isn’t looking forward to France v Germany? Let’s go for France v Portugal on the last day of the group though, which because even with the three teams qualifying it could end up with either France or Germany playing for their tournament lives.
Michael: Three European heavyweights, which strikes you as the most vulnerable?* Yes I know Hungary were heavyweights once, but this refers to the reigning world champs, the reigning Euro champs and the 4 time former World Cup winners... – Germany, based on recent form, and France/Portugal having the sort of teams that could rip the Germany who lose to N Macedonia apart here… Are Hungary, to quote, "utterly screwed" here? – no, I think they’ll get a draw at least from their home games.
Joao: France (with a 0-0 in the final game), Portugal, Germany
Jon: France and Portugal should go through quite straightforwardly: they’re strong sides with no obvious issues. Germany might be vulnerable to the two other giants in the group but a point from those two games and a win over Hungary will probably see them through.
Michael: Denmark for the quarterfinals, you heard it here first.
Michael: France. Too good a squad and defence. Will likely win some key games 1-0.
Jon: Wales of course *coughs*. My head says France but let’s face it, that’s a dull and obvious pick. Portugal are tempting too with the attacking talent surrounding Ronaldo, but they won’t have the luxury of resting players during group games which might be key later in the tournament. England are in that list of sides who could go all the way with a little good fortune but let’s instead go for Mancini’s Italy as a terrific modern technical side with a team ethic. If you’re looking for a possible outsider, Denmark could well surprise plenty.
Gav: You’ve named all these countries – where’s Estonia’s group?
Michael: The Group for Sir Not Appearing in This Tournament, I’m afraid.
Gav: Oh well, back to Viva Zapata. Starring a very tanned Marlon Brando…
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